Next Year's Playoff: Simulation

[gatorman-uf]

I ran a simulation based on the new playoff format for Classification 7A, Region 1... I don't like the new system that goes into effect next year. I think it is overly complicated for what the goal should be. The FHSAA membership disagrees, so be it. My position has not changed we need to create a promotion/relegation system that pushes better teams up the ladder and worse ones down until they can be successful.

 

District Champs/Runner Up Under Current System

Lincoln/Leon

Lee/Columbia

Buchholz/Bartram Trail

Ocoee/Hagerty

 

Under the Simulation

1) Ocoee vs Oakleaf/Columbia

2) Buchholz vs Bartram Trail

3) Lee vs Fletcher

4) Lincoln vs Hagerty

 

Ocoee High School     39

Buchholz High School 38.8889

Lee High School 38.75

Hagerty High School 38

Fletcher High School 37.7778

Bartram Trail High School 37.5

Lincoln High School 37.5

Columbia High School 37.2222

Oakleaf High School 37.2222

West Port High School 36.1111

East Ridge High School 36

Leon High School 35.625

Fleming Island High School 35.5556

Lake Howell High School 33.5

Chiles High School 32.2222

First Coast High School 32.2222

Atlantic Coast High School 31.5

Edgewater High School 30

Lake Minneola High School 29.5

Creekside High School 29.4444

 

Now, the new system is funky and weird. 

1), I can't actually break the tie between Oakleaf and Columbia as they have the same # of category 1 wins (0) and same # of category 1 and 2 wins (2). There is no next tie breaker, so who earns the 8th spot is a mystery.

 

2) CHS (which beat Fletcher in the regular season) ends up being pushed potentially out. Two of our first round games are rematches (real excitement there for a first round match). 

 

3) If we assume Columbia gets the spot, then the old system provided 7 of the 8 that would have gotten in anyway (only Leon stays home).

 

Link to Data

[DisabledAccount]

 

I ran a simulation based on the new playoff format for Classification 7A, Region 1... I don't like the new system that goes into effect next year. I think it is overly complicated for what the goal should be. The FHSAA membership disagrees, so be it. My position has not changed we need to create a promotion/relegation system that pushes better teams up the ladder and worse ones down until they can be successful.

 

District Champs/Runner Up Under Current System

Lincoln/Leon

Lee/Columbia

Buchholz/Bartram Trail

Ocoee/Hagerty

 

Under the Simulation

1) Ocoee vs Oakleaf/Columbia

2) Buchholz vs Bartram Trail

3) Lee vs Fletcher

4) Lincoln vs Hagerty

 

Ocoee High School 39

Buchholz High School 38.8889

Lee High School 38.75

Hagerty High School 38

Fletcher High School 37.7778

Bartram Trail High School 37.5

Lincoln High School 37.5

Columbia High School 37.2222

Oakleaf High School 37.2222

West Port High School 36.1111

East Ridge High School 36

Leon High School 35.625

Fleming Island High School 35.5556

Lake Howell High School 33.5

Chiles High School 32.2222

First Coast High School 32.2222

Atlantic Coast High School 31.5

Edgewater High School 30

Lake Minneola High School 29.5

Creekside High School 29.4444

 

Now, the new system is funky and weird.

1), I can't actually break the tie between Oakleaf and Columbia as they have the same # of category 1 wins (0) and same # of category 1 and 2 wins (2). There is no next tie breaker, so who earns the 8th spot is a mystery.

 

2) CHS (which beat Fletcher in the regular season) ends up being pushed potentially out. Two of our first round games are rematches (real excitement there for a first round match).

 

3) If we assume Columbia gets the spot, then the old system provided 7 of the 8 that would have gotten in anyway (only Leon stays home).

 

Link to Data

 

We beat Fletcher by 20 and only reason for being undefeated was having the schedule against the bottom of the barrel Jax teams

 

 

How would their sos be good enough which is where a lot of the points come from

[gatorman-uf]

The new system has 4 categories: 1) .800 win % and above, 2) .600 to .799 win %, 3) .400 to .5999 and 4) below .4000

 

Fletcher had wins against Fort White (Category 1) and Mandarin (Category 2), Columbia had two Category 2 wins (Fletcher and Suwannee) and no Category 1 wins.

 

Flecther's losses (Lee and CHS) were a Category 1 and 2 loss.

Columnia's losses (Lee, TC-Jax, and Buchholz) were a Category 1 and 2 Category 2 losses).  

[DisabledAccount]

How would it be changed if we had played IMG week 7?

[gatorman-uf]

Your average (assuming a loss) would have decreased and you have been out of the playoffs as a 6-4 team.

 

[Havoc376]

 

I ran a simulation based on the new playoff format for Classification 7A, Region 1... I don't like the new system that goes into effect next year. I think it is overly complicated for what the goal should be. The FHSAA membership disagrees, so be it. (My position has not changed we need to create a promotion/relegation system that pushes better teams up the ladder and worse ones down until they can be successful)

 

District Champs/Runner Up Under Current System

Lincoln/Leon

Lee/Columbia

Buchholz/Bartram Trail

Ocoee/Hagerty

 

Under the Simulation

1) Ocoee vs Oakleaf/Columbia

2) Buchholz vs Bartram Trail

3) Lee vs Fletcher

4) Lincoln vs Hagerty

 

Ocoee High School 39

Buchholz High School 38.8889

Lee High School 38.75

Hagerty High School 38

Fletcher High School 37.7778

Bartram Trail High School 37.5

Lincoln High School 37.5

Columbia High School 37.2222

Oakleaf High School 37.2222

West Port High School 36.1111

East Ridge High School 36

Leon High School 35.625

Fleming Island High School 35.5556

Lake Howell High School 33.5

Chiles High School 32.2222

First Coast High School 32.2222

Atlantic Coast High School 31.5

Edgewater High School 30

Lake Minneola High School 29.5

Creekside High School 29.4444

 

Link to Data

When you mean by push the better teams, and the skeptical ones, do you mean that by seeding 1 to 16 top to bottom, top 8 being district champions then the rest of them etc.

[DisabledAccount]

I don't recall there being averaging just adding points per game

[gatorman-uf]

I don't recall there being averaging just adding points per game

 

http://www.fhsaa.org/sites/default/files/orig_uploads/News/9.26.16-fhsaa_board_of_directors_approves_new_football_playoff_format.pdf

 

You have to average otherwise a team that has 9 games vs a team that played 10 games would be at a disadvantage.

Also 4th bullet point under How Points Are Scored.

 

[gatorman-uf]

When you mean by push the better teams, and the skeptical ones, do you mean that by seeding 1 to 16 top to bottom, top 8 being district champions then the rest of them etc.

 

My best example of what I mean is that it is silly for Trinity Christian to be playing in 3A, they should be forced to move up and play in a "harder" classification. Additionally, teams like Stanton Prep, Paxon School for Advanced Studies, and Englewood (to pick 3 Jacksonville Schools) should be forced down until they can be competitive. 

Obviously, exceptions for Rural 1A and Urban 2A schools.

 

 

 

 

[Havoc376]

My best example of what I mean is that it is silly for Trinity Christian to be playing in 3A, they should be forced to move up and play in a "harder" classification. Additionally, teams like Stanton Prep, Paxon School for Advanced Studies, and Englewood (to pick 3 Jacksonville Schools) should be forced down until they can be competitive.

Obviously, exceptions for Rural 1A and Urban 2A schools.

 

 

 

 

 

So basically, you like the scenario of BTW, Cocoa, Trinity Christian all being in 5A along with the likes of American Heritage, Godby, Bishop Moore.

[gatorman-uf]

So basically, you like the scenario of BTW, Cocoa, Trinity Christian all being in 5A along with the likes of American Heritage, Godby, Bishop Moore.

 

In theory, I like teams like Trinity Christian, Bolles, Cocoa, Godby, Bishop Moore, and other continuously great schools to move up in classification until winning districts or making the playoffs is not an absolute. I want us to eventually the 60 best schools put them in an 8A classification and let them play. Size would not matter, if you are a 3A school and beat the 3A schools, then move up to 4A. If you beat the 4As, move up to 5A, And so forth.

 

If you are an 8A school and can barely field a team, let's move you down to 7A to try and be more competitive. If you are not competitive at 7A, move down to 6A. If you are not competitive at 6A, and then 5A and so forth.

 

One of the worse ideas we have is that school size is the only factor that contributes to success. While I am sure there is a strong correlation between size and success, we can many mid-size schools that are better than the 8A schools in their own counties. So we need to stop pretending that size is the only factor, let on field success or failure allow teams to move up and down in classifications, not just school size. 

[gatorman-uf]

Because I don't have anything set up and am starting from scratch, this is taking a while. 

But I have finished a simulation for Classification 1A. They will have no districts next year so this is actually more meaningful than 7A.

Region 1

1. Baker High School 39.5 * Playoff
2. Northview High School 37.5 * Playoff
3. Holmes County High School 35.5
4. Graceville High School 35 * Playoff
5. Cottondale High School 34.5 * Playoff
6. Vernon High School 34
7. Wewahitchka High School 32
8. Sneads High School 31.66667
9. Jay High School 30.5

Region 2

1. South Walton High School 38.88889
2. Blountstown High School 38 *Playoff
3. Port St. Joe High School 37.22222 *Playoff
4. Freeport High School 37
5. West Gadsden High School 36.5 * Playoff
6. Bozeman School 35
7. Chipley High School 33 * Playoff
8. Liberty County High School 30.55556
9. Franklin County Middle/High School 28

Region 3

1. Madison County High School 42.22222 * Playoff
2. Fort White High School 38.5 * Playoff
3. Baldwin Middle-Senior High School 35.5 * Playoff
4. Union County High School 35.5
5. Lafayette High School 35
6. Hawthorne Middle/High School 34.44444
7. Hamilton County High School 33.88889 * Playoff
8. Hilliard Middle-Senior High School 33.33333
9. Bell High School 30.5
10. Jefferson County Middle/High School 30

Region 4

1. Pahokee Middle-Senior High School 42 *Playoff
2. Trenton Middle/High School 40.55556 * Playoff
3. Newberry High School 40 *Playoff
4. Frostproof M/S High School 35.5 * Playoff
5. Williston High School 35
6. Fort Meade Middle-Senior High School 34.5
7. Dixie County High School 34.375
8. Taylor Middle/High School 33.88889
9. Crescent City High School 33
10. Chiefland High School 32.5
11. Branford High School 31.5

Teams in Bold would be facing each other (#1 vs #4, #2 vs #3). Teams with " * Playoff" are teams that are in the playoffs under current system of Champions and Runner Ups.

South Walton is the team that would benefit the most under the new system as they lost a district shootout and were eliminated. Hamilton County would be the biggest loser in this situation. Not only would they be out the playoffs a team they beat Lafayette (Mayo) would be closer to the playoffs than they would.

What this tells me if I was a coach, is schedule very carefully. I will continue to say it, I am not sure I see the benefit in scheduling tough under the new system or even mediocre teams.

[Havoc_376]

In theory, I like teams like Trinity Christian, Bolles, Cocoa, Godby, Bishop Moore, and other continuously great schools to move up in classification until winning districts or making the playoffs is not an absolute. I want us to eventually the 60 best schools put them in an 8A classification and let them play. Size would not matter, if you are a 3A school and beat the 3A schools, then move up to 4A. If you beat the 4As, move up to 5A, And so forth.

 

If you are an 8A school and can barely field a team, let's move you down to 7A to try and be more competitive. If you are not competitive at 7A, move down to 6A. If you are not competitive at 6A, and then 5A and so forth.

 

One of the worse ideas we have is that school size is the only factor that contributes to success. While I am sure there is a strong correlation between size and success, we can many mid-size schools that are better than the 8A schools in their own counties. So we need to stop pretending that size is the only factor, let on field success or failure allow teams to move up and down in classifications, not just school size. 

So in a way, it's like making the state like a top to bottom gauntlet starting with the juggernaut/playoff contending programs all down to upstarts and or programs who are not really engaged in the win for titles effect. So if it were to be that type of scenario, 8A would be pretty much be like a popcorn version of the SEC in one when you have the likes of Apopka, Plant, Manatee, DP, First Coast, Lakeland, Armwood, Cocoa, from the north and Aquinas, Central, Heritage, BTW, Flanagan, Northwestern, Naples, Dwyer, Oxbridge, from the south. 

[DisabledAccount]

So in a way, it's like making the state like a top to bottom gauntlet starting with the juggernaut/playoff contending programs all down to upstarts and or programs who are not really engaged in the win for titles effect. So if it were to be that type of scenario, 8A would be pretty much be like a popcorn version of the SEC in one when you have the likes of Apopka, Plant, Manatee, DP, First Coast, Lakeland, Armwood, Cocoa, from the north and Aquinas, Central, Heritage, BTW, Flanagan, Northwestern, Naples, Dwyer, Oxbridge, from the south.

 

First coast has dropped off huge last 2 years

[gatorman-uf]

So in a way, it's like making the state like a top to bottom gauntlet starting with the juggernaut/playoff contending programs all down to upstarts and or programs who are not really engaged in the win for titles effect. So if it were to be that type of scenario, 8A would be pretty much be like a popcorn version of the SEC in one when you have the likes of Apopka, Plant, Manatee, DP, First Coast, Lakeland, Armwood, Cocoa, from the north and Aquinas, Central, Heritage, BTW, Flanagan, Northwestern, Naples, Dwyer, Oxbridge, from the south. 

 

Yes, except now imagine 60 of the best teams in the classifications and you start getting the idea. Now obviously, school size plays a large role in success, but we can obviously name many schools that are top notch that are smaller. 

[Havoc_376]

Yes, except now imagine 60 of the best teams in the classifications and you start getting the idea. Now obviously, school size plays a large role in success, but we can obviously name many schools that are top notch that are smaller.

Yes, which then would bring up the point of travel. I'm all in for our state classifications to be much stronger during the season, and the playoffs instead of this watered down balloon system that we have, but traveling will always be at the top of the list when it comes to situations like these.

[Havoc_376]

First coast has dropped off huge last 2 years

Still a large playoff contender. They been to the state finals before, and have a high number of good prospects. They have proven themselves a lot more in the JAX area.

[DisabledAccount]

Still a large playoff contender. They been to the state finals before, and have a high number of good prospects. They have proven themselves a lot more in the JAX area.

 

Currently they have finished last and 4th respectively in their district last 2 years

 

Last year was supposed to walk over everyone and I beilive they finished tied for last then this year finished 4th

 

Seems to be in a down cycle and until they can get some more players back they will stay in the middle of that district

[DisabledAccount]

Yes, which then would bring up the point of travel. I'm all in for our state classifications to be much stronger during the season, and the playoffs instead of this watered down balloon system that we have, but traveling will always be at the top of the list when it comes to situations like these.

[DisabledAccount]

Do private schools pay more for admission in the fhsaa membership?