Class 3A - Week 9

[SPCjessica2004]

I usually try to get my previews out by Tuesday, but I ran into a case of the sick child syndrome as the Flu is running amok in the house. I also wanted to get to some E-mail that I think are good talking points and also highlight some key games this week.

Class 3A top 5 going into week 9

1) Chaminade-Madonna: I never gave up on Chaminade being #1 in 3A and after knocking off Booker T, even a slightly down and without their starting QB for 3 quarters Booker T. Chaminade picked up the most impressive win in 3A this year. The Lions will continue to challenge themselves the rest of the year with 1 loss Doral Academy and undefeated Uschool still left to play.

2) Oxbridge Academy: The Thunderwolves hit the road to take on a fiesty Ft. Myers team. Oxbridge is sitting in a great spot overall in terms of 3A, but may end up on the road for round 2 and 3 this year. With MCC suffering their third loss, I'm now on board with the Thunderwolves being in Orlando, but the road to Orlando will be a bit tougher than originally thought due to solid play by fellow 3A North teams, still Oxbridge has more than enough to get to Orlando.

3)Clearwater Central Catholic- Calvary Christian, a team with multiple power 5 division 1 prospects and a slew of players expected to make a splash in college next year anticipated finally knocking off CCC. Everything was in Calvary's favor coming off a bye week in front of the biggest crowd in Calvary history.  Calvary also caught CCC beat up a bit from a battle against Rockledge the week before; turns out, it wasn't enough as CCC won 23-14 to move to 7-0. 

4) Lakeland Christian- The Vikings are hitting the meat of their schedule with back to back games against a 1 loss Lake Highland and a currently undefeated Avon Park team. LCS is playing quality football, the schedule hasn't been daunting but it's clear LCS is capable of beating better teams than what they've lined up against.

5) Melbourne Central Catholic- The Hustlers retain their #5 spot with 3 losses, but those 3 losses came to Buford GA, Fort Hill MD and Orlando Bishop Moore. MCC hits the soft spot of their schedule against South Fork, Atlantic (Port Orange) and Fort Pierce Central. All 3 of those teams are category 4 teams and do not award bonus points as none of them made the playoffs in the past 2 years- this is important as if the playoffs started today, MCC would not make it. MCC will need to win out and need help to get into the tournament.

Other teams on the verge: King's, First Academy, Tampa Catholic, Taylor, Taylor County, Ft. White.

BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 9

GAME OF THE WEEK

Key West vs King's Academy

A battle of undefeated teams as the Conch's of Key West will travel north to take on King's Academy. King's Academy has been one of the plesant surprises in 3A.  The Lions of TKA have a solid group of wide receivers lead by Jeremiah Scroggins, Cory Croteau and Ryan Kingman. King's scored a big 28-21 win last week over Gulliver Prep, a win this week would have TKA pushing for the top spot in region 2 as it's expected First Academy's average points will drop over the next few weeks.

Fort White vs Dixie County

This is one of the top matchups in 3A as it pits a very good 2 loss Fort White team against an undefeated Dixie County team.  Fort White is coming off a huge 40-0 win over rival Union County. Dixie County is coming off a 27-13 win over Newberry.  Looking at both teams, I'm curious how Dixie County lines up against Jacquez Pelham- Ft. White has a big line lead by 6-5 Doug Johnson and has capable receivers.  Fort White is currently just behind Taylor County for the #2 seed in region 1. A win over Dixie and Newberry next week could set the Indians up for a playoff push and home field in round 1.

Lakeland Christian vs Lake Highland Prep

Lakeland Christian is currently undefeated and Lake Highland Prep has 1 loss. LCS is currently #3 in the Class 3A Region 3 standings and in a battle with Tampa Catholic for 2 and the all-important home field advantage in the playoffs. This will be Lakeland Christian's toughest game to date; however, if common opponents mean anything LCS should be fine. LCS knocked off Frostproof 28-6 while Lake Highland's only loss was to Frostproof 22-21. A win here should give LCS the necessary points to jump Tampa Catholic for the 2 seed.

American Heritage vs Glades Central

The Stallions currently sit at 4-3, but they've played a very tough and competitive schedule against some of the states best. American Heritage is a slight favorite in this one partly because Glades Central has historically struggled against the coaching schemes of the Stallions but this should be a good one. If the Stallions winout they should be in prime position to host a playoff game before heading south to play a much anticipated game against Chaminade.



QUESTION TIME!

Who will finish with the overall top seed in the North and South? (Everybody!)

In the North it's a battle between King's, First Academy, Oxbridge. If King's wins out I think they'll edge out TFA. Oxbridge isn't out of the discussion either, but would need help. First Academy will be hurt by playing Agape Christian.

  In the South it's a 2 team race- Chaminade-Madonna and Clearwater Central Catholic.  Chaminade has played an overall tougher schedule than CCC, but CCC has played a more complete schedule. What I mean by that is I project CCC to only have played 1 cat 4 school and that's Booker. Chaminade will have played multiple cat 4 schools. What helps Chaminade is that every team they've played has made the playoffs in the past 2 years. Neither team controls their own destiny for the 1 seed even if they both win out. This one will go down to the wire unless one of them is upset prior to the conclusion of week 11.

Most surprising team that could miss the playoffs?

It has to be Melbourne Central Catholic. MCC was picked by myself and a few others to represent the North in Orlando. They now do not control their own destiny to make the playoffs. Assuming Oxbridge, TFA and King's continue to win (they will) it will come down to MCC and Taylor (Pierson). MCC plays all cat 4 schools, so if they win out, they'll actually lose point average from here on out (unless FPC turns their season around). Taylor (Pierson) is already ahead of MCC and plays Cresent City, currently a catagory 2 team. If Taylor wins out, they'll keep MCC out of the playoffs- a situation once thought unimaginable.

Why no love for North Florida?

I get this one a lot honestly. The truth is complicated; 1) Very few if any 3A-Region 1 stream their games with any quality to see what's going on. 2) These fans tend to be the most passionate, so any inaccuracy is often met with hostility in DM's or E-Mails.  I want to gather more information on some of these teams but without any of them traveling south, it's difficult. 

Is the new FHSAA system hurting or helping?

Remains to be seen. in class 3A the teams that are hurting for games are the south powerhouses.  The Tampa Bay teams are all going to play each other and finish with 4-5 wins so they're not hurting for games or points. The Broward/Miami teams have to play superpowers to get 10 games.  I think the FHSAA needs to help 1-4A with scheduling somehow.






 

[SPCjessica2004]

Just got done watching Chaminade defeat Doral Academy via live stream. Final was 41-5, the game was never in doubt. Doral Academy has a couple nice athletes, but Chaminade was to much. Doral Academy looked tiny across their line and were manhandled all night by a much more aggressive Lions team, still- Doral should finish 8-2.   Shivers had some really nice runs even though it was obvious that Doral was trying to take him away. 

Chaminade plays Flanagan in a week which should be another running clock before the highly anticipated game against Uschool in week 11.

[DisabledAccount]

I wish i could tell you more about the north teams but only one i have seen was Fort White 

 

They probably good enough to win region 1 but with all due respect to Fort White i can't see them having much a chance of beating Oxbridge Academy but for Fort White to make final 4 would be huge step for the still young program 

[SPCjessica2004]

Good morning! I wanted to detail Melbourne Central Catholic's situation a bit more because it's really a topic of debate on the Space Coast Daily News, MCC fans and people trying to understand how a team as loaded as the Hustlers could potentially miss the playoffs.

First, MCC plays in Class 3A Region 2.   The region consists of: Orlando First Academy, Winter Park Trinity Prep, Melbourne Holy Trinity, Taylor (Pierson), Oxbridge Academy, King's Academy, Father Lopez, Cardinal Newman.

In order to make the playoffs, MCC has to accumulate an average point total that is in the top 4 of the teams listed above. Oxbridge is having a phenomenal season, but what's hurting the Hustlers is that First Academy and King's Academy are better than anticipated.

MCC is currently at 36.5 points which would put them at 5th currently. So, how does MCC make the playoffs?

Let's look at MCC's current schedule of teams played and do some projection:

Buford                         Cat 1 loss  33 points
Palm Beach Central   Cat 2 Win  45 points
Liberty                         Cat 4 Win   35 points
Archbishop M.           Cat 3 win    40 points
Bishop Moore           Cat 1 loss    33 points
Fort Hill                      Cat 1 loss    33 points

Buford and Fort Hill are in no danger of losing another regular season game, so they'll finish as Cat 1 teams.  Liberty will finish as a Cat 4 team.   I think Palm beach Central will win out to finish 7-2 which will keep them a Cat 2 team.  I think Archbishop M. will finish 6-4 making them a Cat 2 win.  Bishop Moore has a toughie in week 11 against Seminole (Sanford) which is a wildcard game- more on this later.

Right now, there's 1 change I think will definitely happen. Archbishop M. will become a Cat 2 team and award MCC 45 points. If Bishop Moore loses to Seminole (Sanford) they'll become a cat 2 loss for MCC and award 28 points. I know that's a 50/50 game, but for purposes of this thread, let's assume Bishop Moore wins to give MCC the best chance to get into the playoffs.

MCC has 3 games remaining:
South Fork who will finish as a Cat 4 team.
Atlantic who will finish as a Cat 4 team.
Fort Piece Central who will finish as a Cat 4 team unless they upset Vero Beach...which probably won't happen.

That will give MCC a total of 329 points with a 9 game divisor for a projected total of 36.5.  In other words, they'll stay right where they're at. They won't gain or lose points.

The issue for MCC is Taylor (Pierson) is currently at 36.8 points with a 6-1 record and I don't see the point value of the teams they've played changing much if at all.  Taylor has 3 games remaining, 2 of those games they'll win handily- Umatilla and Keystone Heights are both Cat 4 teams; however, on 10/27 Taylor plays their Senior night game against Crescent City who currently has a 5-1 record.  

Crescent City plays Bradford tonight and I think they'll lose, dropping them to 5-2 which keeps them a Cat 2 team.  If Taylor beats Crescent City and Crescent City wins their last regular season game against Pine Ridge (Hint: They should), they would finish with a 6-3 record, which means 45 points for Taylor which is enough to keep MCC out of the playoffs.

To summarize- if you're a Hustler fan you need 3 things:

1) Win out and root for Palm Beach Central to win out.
2) Root for Bishop Moore to beat Seminole Sanford
3) Crescent City beats Taylor on 10/27.

[BrowardHandicapper]

Thanks for the breakdown SPCjessica2004!  BOL taking care of and fighting off that flu with your family. 

As always, we appreciate your great insight!

[badbird]

Is Taylor losing to Cresent City enough or do they need more to happen?  If so it comes down to that game.

 

Also it is sad it comes down to this.  How much would MCC be favored over Pierson Taylor?  30 or 35?

 

To get in they have to hope they lose to an average 1A school

[SPCjessica2004]

Well, as expected- Taylor killed Umatilla tonight and Cresent City was killed by Hawthorne. I thought both of those things would happen. 

Taylor will host Cresent City next week. Next week is Cresent City's last game of the year as they have a bye week in week 11. Thus, if Taylor wins, Crescent City will finish 6-2 which is a 75% winning percentage and would award Taylor 45 points. Taylor does have a week 11 game against Pine Ridge, but Taylor will be a hefty favorite in that one if they come off with a win against Cresent City.

Looking at the results of tonight, I feel confident in saying that if Taylor beats Cresent City next week- they'll get in over MCC. If Taylor loses to Cresent City I think MCC will squeak in. 

If Taylor played MCC, I would take MCC by 3 TD's at a minimum.

 

[BrowardHandicapper]

4 hours ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

Well, as expected- Taylor killed Umatilla tonight and Cresent City was killed by Hawthorne. I thought both of those things would happen. 

Taylor will host Cresent City next week. Next week is Cresent City's last game of the year as they have a bye week in week 11. Thus, if Taylor wins, Crescent City will finish 6-2 which is a 75% winning percentage and would award Taylor 45 points. Taylor does have a week 11 game against Pine Ridge, but Taylor will be a hefty favorite in that one if they come off with a win against Cresent City.

Looking at the results of tonight, I feel confident in saying that if Taylor beats Cresent City next week- they'll get in over MCC. If Taylor loses to Cresent City I think MCC will squeak in. 

If Taylor played MCC, I would take MCC by 3 TD's at a minimum.

 

Taylor would probably lose to nearly every one in that Region outside of Holy Trinity and Father Lopez and perhaps Trinity Prep.  

I would probably take Cardinal Newman by at least 2 TDs over Taylor right now.  

[SPCjessica2004]

Minor correction, if Taylor wins next week then Crescent City would finish 6-3,  but that's still a 66% winning percentage which is good for Cat 2 points.

On a side note, I've been told that Crescent City maybe without the services of their 2nd best player and they were already a minor underdog with him.