Is Defense Losing Emphasis? Data from the State Finals

[OldSchoolLion]

When one looks at the data below, it begs the question "why?"  Have offenses gotten more explosive?  Is there not as much emphasis on defense as in the past?  Has the increase in classifications resulted in less parity?  etc etc  Opinions?

Below is the average number of points scored by the state champions in each decade.  

1970's 23 points

1980's 26 points

1990's 28 points

2000's 31 points

2010's(so far) 35 points

Prior to 2010, there was only one year in which the average number of points scored by all state champions was 40 or more...42 in 2005.  So far this decade, we have experienced 3 such years (41 in 2011, 40 in 2013, and 43 in 2015).  Interestingly, the last two seasons, the average has been 28...the lowest back-to-back averages since 2002/2003.

In 2013, the biggest scores were in the upper classes.  In the 2014, the biggest scores were in the lower classes.  So, it is not as if the big scores this decade are all coming from a certain class(es).

[DisabledAccount]

11 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

When one looks at the data below, it begs the question "why?"  Have offenses gotten more explosive?  Is there not as much emphasis on defense as in the past?  Has the increase in classifications resulted in less parity?  etc etc  Opinions?

Below is the average number of points scored by the state champions in each decade.  

1970's 23 points

1980's 26 points

1990's 28 points

2000's 31 points

2010's(so far) 35 points

Prior to 2010, there was only one year in which the average number of points scored by all state champions was 40 or more...42 in 2005.  So far this decade, we have experienced 3 such years (41 in 2011, 40 in 2013, and 43 in 2015).  Interestingly, the last two seasons, the average has been 28...the lowest back-to-back averages since 2002/2003.

In 2013, the biggest scores were in the upper classes.  In the 2014, the biggest scores were in the lower classes.  So, it is not as if the big scores this decade are all coming from a certain class(es).

I have a suggestion

 

Could you show me the numbers from this past decade? 

 

I have a hunch I want to test 

[OldSchoolLion]

5 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I have a suggestion

 

Could you show me the numbers from this past decade? 

 

I have a hunch I want to test 

2000-32

2001-28

2002-22

2003-22

2004-36

2005-42

2006-29

2007-32

2008-33

2009-31

2010-34

2011-41

2012-35

2013-40

2014-34

2015-43

2016-28

2017-28

[Bocefous70]

11 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

When one looks at the data below, it begs the question "why?"  Have offenses gotten more explosive?  Is there not as much emphasis on defense as in the past?  Has the increase in classifications resulted in less parity?  etc etc  Opinions?

Below is the average number of points scored by the state champions in each decade.  

1970's 23 points

1980's 26 points

1990's 28 points

2000's 31 points

2010's(so far) 35 points

Prior to 2010, there was only one year in which the average number of points scored by all state champions was 40 or more...42 in 2005.  So far this decade, we have experienced 3 such years (41 in 2011, 40 in 2013, and 43 in 2015).  Interestingly, the last two seasons, the average has been 28...the lowest back-to-back averages since 2002/2003.

In 2013, the biggest scores were in the upper classes.  In the 2014, the biggest scores were in the lower classes.  So, it is not as if the big scores this decade are all coming from a certain class(es).

Is there a way to track total plays per game?

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

2000-32

2001-28

2002-22

2003-22

2004-36

2005-42

2006-29

2007-32

2008-33

2009-31

2010-34

2011-41

2012-35

2013-40

2014-34

2015-43

2016-28

2017-28

What would the numbers be for 2010-current if we took out the running clock games? 

[OldSchoolLion]

 

3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

What would the numbers be for 2010-current if we took out the running clock games? 

That would be a great project for you!

[DisabledAccount]

9 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

 

That would be a great project for you!

Did you by any chance write down the scores of the games during your research lol

[OldSchoolLion]

3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Did you by any chance write down the scores of the games during your research lol

I just have the total points scored by all winning teams for each year

[SPCjessica2004]

To me one of the reasons for defensive lapses is depth.  I look at JaxTCA vs American Heritage (Delray) in 2014/2015.  11 on 11, the teams were even. I believe the scores were 0-0 at half in 2014 and 7-0 in 2015. JaxTCA had superior depth, AHD wore out which lead to blowouts.  Even JaxTCA vs Chaminade was competitive until TCA's superior depth took over.

I'm sure there are other reasons (complex offenses, lack of preparation, coaching philosophy) but that's what I've noticed.

[OldSchoolLion]

...one data point.  When one looks at the top qb performances in terms of passing yardage in state finals, the majority of the top 20 are south FL qb's and 80% of the games took place 2005 or later.      

[Proseteye]

My take on it all, for what it's worth, is that there is more reliance on the pass these days. It is not just high school football but football across all levels. Developing a good pass defense is one of the most difficult areas of the game of football, especially at the high school level. Most high school defensive players don't have a clue how to successfully defend against the pass. Either they are not taught properly or they cannot execute properly even if taught. There are a few exceptions to the rule with the top high school programs.  But, for the most part defense is the biggest problem for teams.  The only other difficulty that I can see with defenses that cannot stop from being scored upon a lot is when they go up against a top notch Wing-T formation. Once again, most defenses do not know how to effectively play against it.

[OldSchoolLion]

3 hours ago, Bocefous70 said:

Is there a way to track total plays per game?

Total # of Plays in Each Title Game (using 2 most extreme years since 2000)

2003-104 plays/game average; average # pts of winning team = 22

1A-96 plays     Trinity Christian 21 v Ft Meade 7

2B-116      Pahokee 21 v Union County 6

2A-103      Chaminade-Madonna 27 v Madison County 0

3A-105       Monsignor Pace 21 v Bolles 17

4A-110      Armwood 29 v Lake Gibson 21 

5A-103      Mainland 24 v Naples 13

6A-98       Carol City 13 v Edgewtaer 0

 

2015- 112 plays/game on average; average # pts of winning team = 43

1A-97 plays    Trenton 56 v Pt St Joe 21

2A-109     University Christian 61 v Cambridge 16

3A-131     Trinity Chrisitan 30 v Am Heritage Delray 3

4A-128      Booker T Washington 42 v Raines 23

5A-104     Bishop Moore 37 v Wakulla 34

6A-104     Central 48 v Armwood 13

7A-110     STA 45 v Viera 10

8A-112     Flanagan 26 v Osceola 7

[OldSchoolLion]

 

3 hours ago, Bocefous70 said:

Is there a way to track total plays per game?

...interesting.  I added the data in bold below.  There was substantially more passing in the 2015 title games.  In the 2003 title games, 2 of 14 teams attempted 20 passes in a game and the average play mix was 78% rush/22% pass.  In 2015, 7 of 16 teams attempted 20 passes in a game and the average play mix was 65% rush/35% pass.  I also corrected the play count for the 2003 4A game. 

2003-104 plays/game average; average # pts of winning team = 22

572 rushes=82/game average          159 passes=23/game average      78% rush/22% pass

1A-96 plays     Trinity Christian 21 v Ft Meade 7 (83 rush, 13 pass)

2B-116      Pahokee 21 v Union County 6 (86 rush, 30 pass)

2A-103      Chaminade-Madonna 27 v Madison County 0 (83 rush, 20 pass)

3A-105       Monsignor Pace 21 v Bolles 17 (72 rush, 33 pass)

4A-110      Armwood 29 v Lake Gibson 21 (82 rush, 28 pass)

5A-103      Mainland 24 v Naples 13 (79 rush, 24 pass)

6A-98       Carol City 13 v Edgewater 0 (87 rush, 11 pass)

 

2015- 112 plays/game on average; average # pts of winning team = 43

583 rushes=72/game average    312 passes=39/game average     65% rush/35% pass 

1A-97 plays    Trenton 56 v Pt St Joe 21 (65 rush, 32 pass - PSJ had 24 passes, Trenton had 8)

2A-109     University Christian 61 v Cambridge 16 (82 rush, 27 pass - Cambridge had 17 passes, UC had 10)

3A-131     Trinity Chrisitan 30 v Am Heritage Delray 3 (78 rush, 53 pass - AHD had 28 passes, TC had 25)

4A-128      Booker T Washington 42 v Raines 23 (72 rush, 56 pass - Raines had 31 passes, BTW had 25)

5A-104     Bishop Moore 37 v Wakulla 34 (70 rush, 34 pass - Wakulla had 18 passes, BM had 16)

6A-104     Central 48 v Armwood 13 (71 rush, 33 pass - Central had 19 passes, Armwood had 14)

7A-110     STA 45 v Viera 10 (65 rush, 45 pass - Viera had 30 passes, STA had 15)   

8A-112     Flanagan 26 v Osceola 7 (80 rush, 32 pass - Flanagan had 27 passes, Osceola had 5)

[Bocefous70]

I typically think emphasis hasn’t changed. There’s been such an advancement in the HS passing game as well as an uptick in plays per game thanks to no huddle offenses that many teams cannot field teams full of two way studs in the numbers they once did. 

[OldSchoolLion]

 

On 6/29/2018 at 4:16 PM, Bocefous70 said:

I typically think emphasis hasn’t changed. There’s been such an advancement in the HS passing game as well as an uptick in plays per game thanks to no huddle offenses that many teams cannot field teams full of two way studs in the numbers they once did. 

Below is data that demonstrates how passing has become a more prominent part of the game.  I used the combined totals from all state title games each year to determine the averages.  

	Average # plays/game (both teams)	Average # passes/game (both teams)	Average rush%/pass%
2000	108	27	75%/25%
2001	104	32	69%/31%
2002	110	33	71%/29%
2003	104	23	78%/22%
2004	106	30	72%/28%
2005	117	34	70%/30%
2006	116	38	67%/33%
2007	103	37	64%/36%
2008	105	38	63%/37%
2009	110	31	71%/29%
2010	111	40	64%/36%
2011	108	30	72%/28%
2012	118	43	65%/35%
2013	113	40	64%/36%
2014	108	34	69%/31%
2015	112	39	65%/35%
2016	111	39	65%/35%
2017	117	41	65%/35%

[OldSchoolLion]

On 6/29/2018 at 12:07 PM, Bocefous70 said:

Is there a way to track total plays per game?

On 6/29/2018 at 12:27 PM, SPCjessica2004 said:

To me one of the reasons for defensive lapses is depth.  I look at JaxTCA vs American Heritage (Delray) in 2014/2015.  11 on 11, the teams were even. I believe the scores were 0-0 at half in 2014 and 7-0 in 2015. JaxTCA had superior depth, AHD wore out which lead to blowouts.  Even JaxTCA vs Chaminade was competitive until TCA's superior depth took over.

I'm sure there are other reasons (complex offenses, lack of preparation, coaching philosophy) but that's what I've noticed.

I modified the data in the previous post to include all years from 2000 to present.  I believe the shift kicked into gear around 2005...the same year that Robert Love of Pahokee destroyed the title game passing record.  We have gone from 75rushing/25passing to 65/35, which doesn't seem like much, but it is significant.

To Jessica's point, depth has likely become a bigger factor as # of plays and tempo have increased.  Even very talented smaller teams, ie Chaminade, are going to being at risk of wearing out when facing high tempo teams with deeper rosters.       

[DisabledAccount]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

I modified the data in the previous post to include all years from 2000 to present.  I believe the shift kicked into gear around 2005...the same year that Robert Love of Pahokee destroyed the title game passing record.  We have gone from 75rushing/25passing to 65/35, which doesn't seem like much, but it is significant.

To Jessica's point, depth has likely become a bigger factor as # of plays and tempo have increased.  Even very talented smaller teams, ie Chaminade, are going to being at risk of wearing out when facing high tempo teams with deeper rosters.       

Yeah but unless Chaminade is moved up in classification then they are highly unlikely to see anyone to match their current depth in 3a

[OldSchoolLion]

6 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Yeah but unless Chaminade is moved up in classification then they are highly unlikely to see anyone to match their current depth in 3a

Am thinking of regular season games, where they have played a number of teams from larger classes of late..

[DisabledAccount]

7 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Am thinking of regular season games, where they have played a number of teams from larger classes of late..

That is true but honestly

 

They have to play up just to be challenged 

 

Oxbridge was the 1 Team in 3a who could give them a run for their money

 

Idk if anyone in 3a is within 20 points of them