Private Schools Appearing in National Polls More Than Ever

[OldSchoolLion]

Something unique happened this year.  The USA Today Super 25 poll kicked off the season with 12 private schools on the list, and 7 of them were in the top 10.  The recent Maxpreps composite poll also has 12 private schools amongst the top 25. To the best of my knowledge, there has never been more than 9 private schools on the Final Super 25 poll since it started in 1982.  In 1990 and 1991, there were no more than 2 private schools on the Final Super 25 polls.  Those numbers have been creeping upward since.   

Another unprecedented thing has happened each of the past three years...5 private school teams from Florida or California have appeared on the Final Super 25 poll(IMG was one of those).  Between 2002-2004, there was one each year.

In certain areas of the country, private schools appear to be winning the talent war, attracting more talent than their public school counterparts. That is not the case everywhere, though.  South FL, southern CA, Washington DC, and, believe it or not, Hawaii, are areas with multiple private school powerhouses loaded with talent.  De La Salle, a classic powerhouse from northern California, only has 2 "rated" players.

What has caused the increased in private school appearance in the polls?  Is the "advertising" provided by the polls helping certain private schools to attract some of the better players? 

Below are 16 of the country's best private school football programs and the breakdown of talent at each.  In parentheses after each school is the student population.  Further below, I have done the same for 6 of the more talent-laden public schools in Florida, to give some perspective. 

 

St. Thomas Aquinas(FL-2109 Coed)- 5-star(1), 4-star(10), 3-star(14) = 25 players     Note:(8) 4-star players on defense

St John Bosco(CA-825 Boys)- 5-star(1), 4-star(7), 3-star(16) = 24 players

IMG Academy(FL)- 5-star(2), 4-star(10), 3-star(11) = 23 players

Mater Dei(CA-2152 Coed)- 5-star(3), 4-star(7), 3-star(9) = 19 players

St John's (MD/DC-1113 Coed)- 5-star(1), 4-star(4), 3-star(8) = 13 players 

St Louis (HI-885 Coed)- 5-star(0), 4 star(4), 3-star(8) = 12 players

St Frances(MD-180 Coed)- 5-star(1), 4-star(7), 3-star(4) = 12 players

J Serra(CA-544 Coed)- 5-star(0), 4-star(5), 3-star(6) = 11 players

Punahao(HI-3768 Coed)- 5-star(0), 4-star(1), 3-star(7) = 8 players

Cardinal Gibbons(FL-1158 Coed)- 5-star(0), 4-star(1), 3-star(7) = 8 players

Dematha(MD-850 Boys)- 5-star(1), 4-star(3), 3-star(3) = 7 players

Chaminade-Madonna(FL-516 Coed)- 5-star(0), 4-star(4), 3-star(3) = 7 players

Our Lady of Good Counsel(MD-1244 Coed)- 5-star(1), 4-star(0), 3-star(5) = 6 players

Bergen Catholic(NJ-665 Boys)- 5-star(0), 4-star(1), 3-star(5) = 6 players

Archbishop Hoban(OH-855 Coed)- 5-star(0), 4-star(2), 3-star(2) = 4 players   (ABH is in Akron OH)

De La Salle(CA-1050 Boys)- 5-star(0), 4-star(2), 3-star(0) = 2 players  (DLS is in northern CA)

 

Florida Public Schools

Deerfield Beach- 5-star(0), 4-star(3), 3-star(7) = 10 players

Carol City- 5-star(0), 4-star(4), 3-star(5) = 9 players

Northwestern- 5-star(0), 4-star(0), 3-star(7) = 7 players

Miami Central- 5-star(0), 4-star(2), 3-star(5) = 7 players

Lakeland 5-star(0), 4-star(4), 3-star(2) = 6 players

Vanguard- 5-star(2), 4-star(2), 3-star(1) = 5 players

 

[954gator]

how many kids from those fl schools have BCS D1 offers and no stars?  How many of the schools in other states have BCS D1 offers and no stars?   I'd bet the FL publics have a ton of kids with good offers and no stars while the others have less.   

Lakeland.  6 kids have offers no stars.  

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/Recruits/?Player.Enabled=False&Recruitment.Enabled=True&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=9379

J Serra   All kids with offers have stars.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/Recruits/?Player.Enabled=False&Recruitment.Enabled=True&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=536

Doesn't mean J Serra is more talented.   When looking at talent it's better to look at how many kids have offers.   Stars are very misleading. 

[954gator]

Give me 5 kids with offers to Southern Miss over one 5 star with offers from everywhere.    

 

[OldSchoolLion]

3 minutes ago, 954gator said:

how many kids from those fl schools have BCS D1 offers and no stars?  How many of the schools in other states have BCS D1 offers and no stars?   I'd bet the FL publics have a ton of kids with good offers and no stars while the others have less.   

...the data above raised a lot of questions in my mind.

Nationally-ranked, public school powerhouse Lake Travis of Texas(2500 students) has 2 rated players and Centennial of California(3300 students) has 5.   Perennial national powerhouse Allen of Texas in talent hotbed Dallas has 9 times as many students as Chaminade, yet has the same number of rated players and less 4-star players.

Do the private schools around the country truly have that much more talent per capita?  Or are rating services inflating the ratings of kids at private schools?    And, if so, why?  The same question can be asked about the polls.  Have the private schools truly progressed that much faster than their public school counterparts that now half the top teams in the polls are private schools?  Or are private schools being shown favoritism by the pollsters?  And, if so, why?

There are a disproportionate number of rated recruits and top-ranked teams amongst the private schools in southern CA, south FL, and the Maryland/DC area. 

 

[954gator]

5 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

...the data above raised a lot of questions in my mind.

Nationally-ranked, public school powerhouse Lake Travis of Texas(2500 students) has 2 rated players and Centennial of California(3300 students) has 5.   Perennial national powerhouse Allen of Texas in talent hotbed Dallas has 9 times as many students as Chaminade, yet has the same number of rated players and less 4-star players.

Do the private schools around the country truly have that much more talent per capita?  Or are rating services inflating the ratings of kids at private schools?    And, if so, why?  The same question can be asked about the polls.  Have the private schools truly progressed that much faster than their public school counterparts that now half the top teams in the polls are private schools?  Or are private schools being shown favoritism by the pollsters?  And, if so, why?

There are a disproportionate number of rated recruits and top-ranked teams amongst the private schools in southern CA, south FL, and the Maryland/DC area. 

 

Well think about it...which is the truly more talented team...Miami Central or Chaminade?   I think college recruiters/rating services encourage "the talent" to aggregate at private schools or similar power publics because it makes it easier.   The talent in question mostly being kids that attend the various camps or or kids on important youth squads.   that being said there are plenty of schools further from metro areas that discourage going to camps like those. (I don't agree with that at all either) 

I read an article on a scrimmage of rome vs Grayson this year and I was surprised when I read The "Rome kids don't attend camps". I fogured some kids just can't make it to them, I had no idea it was discouraged.  Anyways,  that team is definitely more talented than the sites say.  Here's the article.  

https://247sports.com/Article/Standouts-from-the-Rome-Wolves-versus-Grayson-Rams-practices-119962190/

another good example is Columbia.   I saw some pretty good talent and when I looked for players Most of them had no offers.  Look at this kid and tell me he's not D1 material...

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6326177/5a98bc96b3c8a10ba4cce0fe

 

[OldSchoolLion]

12 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Well think about it...which is the truly more talented team...Miami Central or Chaminade?   I think college recruiters/rating services encourage "the talent" to aggregate at private schools or similar power publics because it makes it easier.   The talent in question mostly being kids that attend the various camps or or kids on important youth squads.   that being said there are plenty of schools further from metro areas that discourage going to camps like those. (I don't agree with that at all either) 

I read an article on a scrimmage of rome vs Grayson this year and I was surprised when I read The "Rome kids don't attend camps". I fogured some kids just can't make it to them, I had no idea it was discouraged.  Anyways,  that team is definitely more talented than the sites say.  Here's the article.  

https://247sports.com/Article/Standouts-from-the-Rome-Wolves-versus-Grayson-Rams-practices-119962190/

another good example is Columbia.   I saw some pretty good talent and when I looked for players Most of them had no offers.  Look at this kid and tell me he's not D1 material...

 

I agree with bold above and like the comment. Only a handful of rural schools were ranked in the Maxpreps 100 preseason poll this year.  There are a number of schools like Rome in GA who folks have never heard of that are loaded with solid, if not spectacular players.  It seems as if some folks think if a team has never been ranked in the polls or had some big-name player, they must not be terribly good.

Interestingly, Alabama and Auburn have a number of players on their rosters from smaller schools in Alabama and I think they are quite happy that nobody has heard of these schools, because less recruiters are after them and they have one or two less stars than they would if they were playing at one of the elite schools in Florida.   

With the reality TV mindset of TV today, I can see why making hyping "sexy" schools like Mater Dei, Allen TX, or St Thomas Aquinas is a much better "sell" than little podunk Rome, GA.  

[OldSchoolLion]

6 hours ago, 954gator said:

how many kids from those fl schools have BCS D1 offers and no stars?  How many of the schools in other states have BCS D1 offers and no stars?   I'd bet the FL publics have a ton of kids with good offers and no stars while the others have less.   

Lakeland.  6 kids have offers no stars.  

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/Recruits/?Player.Enabled=False&Recruitment.Enabled=True&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=9379

J Serra   All kids with offers have stars.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/Recruits/?Player.Enabled=False&Recruitment.Enabled=True&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=536

Doesn't mean J Serra is more talented.   When looking at talent it's better to look at how many kids have offers.   Stars are very misleading. 

When I do talent comparisons, I typically use 3-star and up as a cutoff.   It makes it easy to be objective and make apples-to-apples comparisons between teams.  I make the assumption that if a kid has 3-stars, he is a solid FBS candidate.  Good assumption?  No.  Are there plenty of kids with 2 stars or less who are FBS quality?  Sure.  But there are plenty who are not.    

In my experience, there are substantial disparities in talent levels of the lower-ranked kids.  Sifting through every kid with an offer to determine if he should "count" toward talent comparisons would be tedious and time-consuming, so I do not do it. 

And a major problem I run into is that so many underclassmen are not yet rated and/or do not have offers, and I don't consider those.  So, am using a very blunt tool to dissect talent, for sure.   

I definitely don't feel comfortable stating a team with seven 3-star players is necessarily more talented than one with six.  24 vs 6, though...yeah, that's pretty compelling.  The big question the data raises for me is why the disparity with the stars.  As we all know, stars get the hype on ESPN.  We don't hear them saying, "Now Fred here is a senior with no stars but has an offer to Southern Miss." 

So, in a manner of speaking, stars might be swaying the decisions of kids as to where they should attend high school, ie "Gee look at all the players with stars at that school."  And, if certain schools are getting more favorable ratings than others, it would give them an advantage in attracting students.  Think that might be important for a private school that must earn a profit to keep its doors open?  

 

        

[954gator]

Did you see the highlights of the beast OL from Columbia?   Kid held down IMG and has great size/strength.   Kid is at the very least a 3 star talent.  6'2 290 and is crazy strong.   The guy was key in slowing IMG's Dline.  Zero offers.   That is beyond crazy!

http://www.hudl.com/v/29Vy4t

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Did you see the highlights of the beast OL from Columbia?   Kid held down IMG and has great size/strength.   Kid is at the very least a 3 star talent.  6'2 290 and is crazy strong.   The guy was key in slowing IMG's Dline.  Zero offers.   That is beyond crazy!

http://www.hudl.com/v/29Vy4t

He has 1 to Valdosta State but it's crazy he isn't getting more offers

 

Grades are good as well 

 

 

In fact between all the players on Columbia OL there are 3 total offers, all coming between the 2 seniors and none were power 5 offers