3A, week 9

[SPCjessica2004]

Class 3A top teams going into week 9.  This is the first week there is major shake-up as 2 of the top 5 teams in 3A lost last week.

#1) Chaminade-Madonna.  C-M moved back to the top spot after an impressive win over Booker T. Washington. The Lions lead 28-7 at one point before winning 35-28. The Lions of 2018 are following the same path as the Lions of 2017. Lions should cruise until week 11 showdown with University School.

#2) Clearwater Central Catholic.  Going into the season many news agencies and message boards felt Calvary Christian would finally topple the Marauders. Despite having 2 weeks to prepare for CCC, the Warriors were overwhelmed by the Marauders as CCC quickly took a 28-7 lead and never looked back.

#3) Sarasota Cardinal Mooney. With AHD and King's Academy both losing- it came down to Benjamin, Florida High or Mooney to ascend into the top 3. Ultimately, Mooney was given the nod due to wins against Bishop Verot (who went on to beat AH-D), Berkeley Prep (who has gone on to beat everyone) and Bradenton Southeast.  I think they have the most complete body of work outside of the top 2 teams.

#4) Benjamin School. Benjamin is on the heels of Mooney in our book. Despite King's Academy losing last week the rivalry game should still be epic in 2 weeks. This week against an over matched St. Andrews should see Benjamin well prepared for that contest.

#5) Florida High (FSU School). My family's hearts go out to those impacted by hurricane Michael. Due to the bye week, the Seminoles benefit from AHD and King's losing to regain a footing in the top 5. The Seminoles have an epic game this week against Wakulla. A win here would go a long way to securing home field throughout the playoffs.

#6) American Heritage Delray. The Stallions are still a formidable team, but the 5-3 loss to Bishop Verot is perplexing. Sure, the Vikings are a solid team but AH-D should have one this one. The schedule doesn't get any easier with Glades Central and Key West still up.   Despite falling in most polls, the FHSAA still has AH-D as the top ranked team in Region 4 from a points perspective.

#7) Tampa Berkeley Prep.  The Buccaneers are on a rampage after defeating a very solid Mitchell school 43-42 in 2 OT's. Since QB Josh Youngblood has returned the Buccaneers have defeated Mitchell, Miami Edison and Tampa Catholic. The Buccaneers should be fine this week against IMG-White before finishing their season against Tampa Sickles in an interesting private/public matchup.

#8) Tampa Catholic. The Crusaders may have suffered a few losses, but they have a chance to finish the season very strong. Games against Bishop Verot (this week) and Jesuit in week 11 could allow the Crusaders to make a late season push for a first round bye week.

#9) King's Academy. King's may have dropped a game to Gulliver Prep, but they're still around.  Interesting game this week vs Key West to build momentum for their rivalry game next week.

#10) Baldwin.  Despite being undefeated you can make the argument that they should be ranked higher- I certainly did! The issue is the schedule has been weak. The game that will tell us where the Indians stand is the West Nasseau game, but don't overlook Santa Fe this week. If Baldwin wins the next 2, they'll have the quality wins (along with Dixie County) to jump in the rankings.


GAMES OF THE WEEK
Clearwater Central Catholic (8-0) at Tampa Jesuit (7-0)

Tampa Jesuit is a traditional mid-sized school powerhouse that has won a state championship in its schools history and has recently gone blow for blow against the Bishop Moore and American Heritage-Plantations of the world.  Lead by Kiael Kelly, one of the top QB's in the country for his class and a host of D-1 prospects the Tigers gained attention when they defeated Tampa Jefferson 23-20 early in the year. Jesuit would go on to grab state headlined when they defeated 8A power Kissmiee Osceola 21-7.  Since that win, Jesuit has turned the corner and is playing dominating football.

THE PICK:

I think if both teams were 100% healthy and the game was played in Clearwater, I would take CCC by 14- but, CCC has too many key guys out likely to return for the playoffs- key among them Jr. Johnny Newton and Brandon Kennedy.  I think CCC is taking the right approach not rushing anybody back for their inevitable long playoff run, but Jesuit playing at home simply has to much momentum.  I still expect CCC to finish with the highest average point value in 3A when its all said and done, but this one could get ugly as Jesuit is likely to run up the score.

Jesuit 35, CCC 7


Tampa Catholic vs Bishop Verot

Bishop Verot has quietly put together an amazing 6-1 record capped by last weeks 5-3 win over American Heritage Delray. The Viking defense has really been stout since an opening season loss.  Tampa Catholic has rebounded nicely their 2 losses and still has a competitive schedule remaining with Bishop Verot and Jesuit.

THE PICK: When asked what team could potentially upset Chaminade-Madonna in 3A, I've always felt the team with the tools to do so is Tampa Catholic, but they haven't been able to get out of their own way. What Chaminade has in polish, and south Florida swag the Crusaders just haven't been able to achieve.  I think TC picks up a big win over a good team that provided momentum heading into their yearly rivalry game with Jesuit.

TC 21, Bishop Verot 14.

OTHER GAMES
Berkeley Prep over IMG White by 35
Cardinal Mooney over Avon Park by 3
Chaminade-Madonna over Doral Academy by 35
American Heritage Delray over Glades Central by 10
King's Academy over Key West by 7
Benjamin over St. Andrews by 35+
Ft. White over Dixie by 3
Ocala Trinity over Providence School by 17
Lakeland Christian over Lake Highland by 10
1st Academy over West Park Prep by 35+



 

[DarterBlue2]

As usual, very thorough analysis. While there are not many quality 3A schools here in the Orlando Metro, I always read your posts as they are very informative. 

[SPCjessica2004]

Thanks Darter!  I happen to think that Orlando First Academy is a really good team and should make the state final 4. I also don't think they're to far behind Florida High for a birth in Orlando. The issue is, I don't see that signature win that bumps them up the rankings.  

 

[DarterBlue2]

4 minutes ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

Thanks Darter!  I happen to think that Orlando First Academy is a really good team and should make the state final 4. I also don't think they're to far behind Florida High for a birth in Orlando. The issue is, I don't see that signature win that bumps them up the rankings.  

 

First Academy is always solid and is probably the most consistent small school in Orlando that participates in the post season. At least once in the past decade I thought they were just a couple of positions shy of making it to Orlando. That year they ran into Madison County which ended their season. 

[OldSchoolLion]

18 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:

As usual, very thorough analysis. While there are not many quality 3A schools here in the Orlando Metro, I always read your posts as they are very informative. 

Having so many classes has contributed to this phenomenon.  In the dinosaur days, when we had 4 or even 5 classes, it seems like there was a better chance for a fan to have at least one contender from their area in each of the classes.    Even a fan in a huge county like Miami-Dade today may not have much interest in certain classes, ie 5A or 7A.  I used to love the 3A class, and now, quite honestly, I find myself bored to death by it.  Thank God for Jessica, she keeps me connected.

 

[SPCjessica2004]

So, I got a lot right, some really wrong last week in my personal pickem's for 3a.  Let's see what happened..

Berkeley Prep over IMG White by 35 -  Nailed this one.
Cardinal Mooney over Avon Park by 3-  Got this one.
Chaminade-Madonna over Doral Academy by 35 - Bingo.
American Heritage Delray over Glades Central by 10 - I was really wrong here. What's happened to AHD? 3 losses in a row? Granted all 3 losses were to very good teams, but this one surprised me.
King's Academy over Key West by 7- Right, but the spread was off.
Benjamin over St. Andrews by 35+ - Bingo.
Ft. White over Dixie by 3- Good win by Ft. White! I had them as a 3 point favorite, but they ended up winning by a lot more!!
Ocala Trinity over Providence School by 17- Right on!
Lakeland Christian over Lake Highland by 10-  Correct, but the spread was wrong
1st Academy over West Park Prep by 35+ - Bingo.

In my top 2 games of the week, I nailed the Tampa Catholic game. I had TC as a 7 point favorite, but they ended up winning by 13. Tampa Catholic is really coming on strong to close the season. Unless they win out, they probably aren't in contention for a first round bye.

Okay, now for the pink elephant in the room.  I picked Tampa Jesuit over CCC 35-7. CCC would win 14-6. How could I get this one totally wrong?   Tampa Jesuit was selected due to a few factors

1) CCC was really banged up going into the game. I saw on twitter they only dressed 21 varsity players.  Tampa Jesuit (according to their announcer via live stream) dressed 77 varsity players. 

2) That Jesuit win over Kissimmee Osceola really impacted the spread and the decision. Keep in mind, Osceola had previously beat Viera, Lake Gibson and Winter Haven. Jesuit held them to 7 points.

3) Jesuit is more talented and playing at home.  Looking at the rosters, CCC is talented for sure, but Jesuit has a who's who of college prospects.  They also have more linemen than CCC had players total.

In the end CCC picked up a signature win and proved the computer rankings that have them as a top 30 team right.  For what it's worth, I've been told they will he healthy for the playoffs including Johnny Newton returning.

Okay, that's all I've got. Look for my updated 3A rankings later this week!

 

[Hwy17]

15 minutes ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

So, I got a lot right, some really wrong last week in my personal pickem's for 3a.  Let's see what happened..

Berkeley Prep over IMG White by 35 -  Nailed this one.
Cardinal Mooney over Avon Park by 3-  Got this one.
Chaminade-Madonna over Doral Academy by 35 - Bingo.
American Heritage Delray over Glades Central by 10 - I was really wrong here. What's happened to AHD? 3 losses in a row? Granted all 3 losses were to very good teams, but this one surprised me.
King's Academy over Key West by 7- Right, but the spread was off.
Benjamin over St. Andrews by 35+ - Bingo.
Ft. White over Dixie by 3- Good win by Ft. White! I had them as a 3 point favorite, but they ended up winning by a lot more!!
Ocala Trinity over Providence School by 17- Right on!
Lakeland Christian over Lake Highland by 10-  Correct, but the spread was wrong
1st Academy over West Park Prep by 35+ - Bingo.

In my top 2 games of the week, I nailed the Tampa Catholic game. I had TC as a 7 point favorite, but they ended up winning by 13. Tampa Catholic is really coming on strong to close the season. Unless they win out, they probably aren't in contention for a first round bye.

Okay, now for the pink elephant in the room.  I picked Tampa Jesuit over CCC 35-7. CCC would win 14-6. How could I get this one totally wrong?   Tampa Jesuit was selected due to a few factors

1) CCC was really banged up going into the game. I saw on twitter they only dressed 21 varsity players.  Tampa Jesuit (according to their announcer via live stream) dressed 77 varsity players. 

2) That Jesuit win over Kissimmee Osceola really impacted the spread and the decision. Keep in mind, Osceola had previously beat Viera, Lake Gibson and Winter Haven. Jesuit held them to 7 points.

3) Jesuit is more talented and playing at home.  Looking at the rosters, CCC is talented for sure, but Jesuit has a who's who of college prospects.  They also have more linemen than CCC had players total.

In the end CCC picked up a signature win and proved the computer rankings that have them as a top 30 team right.  For what it's worth, I've been told they will he healthy for the playoffs including Johnny Newton returning.

Okay, that's all I've got. Look for my updated 3A rankings later this week!

 

CCC beating Jesuit was a shocker.  Would like to know if it was a case of understanding CCC or did Jesuit make a lot of mistakes, or what. From what I've seen on Jesuit,  they seem to have all the stuff to win state.

[LakelandGator]

Great work Jessica!

https://twitter.com/CountyPolk