Class 3A, Week 11

[SPCjessica2004]

The regular season is coming to a close- some teams will be playing their final game of the year, others are preparing for the playoffs. Historically, week 11 has seen teams play lesser competition, but with the new playoff point system teams are jockeying for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Let's take a look at the week to come, but first my updated top 5:

#1) Chaminade-Madonna (W: 51-0 over Flanagan):  Stop me if you heard this before. The Lions are rolling right now and the schedule has really started to hold its own. AL. Muscle Shoals has gone on to finish 8-2, defeating some Alabama powerhouses. Piper and Booker T. are both ranked in the top 80 in Florida, Deerfield and AH-P, the two losses Chaminade has suffered are both ranked in the top 100 teams in America by most national polls.  This is typical of the Daemon Jones coached Lions- they tend to start slow and pick up steam moving forward.


#2) Clearwater Central Catholic ( W: 55-20 over Cardinal Mooney):  Kudos to the Marauders for being forward thinking. Earlier in the year, instead of winning games 50-0, CCC was quick to pull starters to build depth for the long run. It was probably frustrating to watch CCC give up 20 points late in games that were already decided, but the payoff for that frustration came against previously undefeated Cardinal Mooney.  With a combination of 6 starters out for various reasons, the Marauders needed those young guys to help stave off a well-prepared Mooney team. CCC only gave up 27 yards rushing (total) to the Cougars.  CCC's secondary also racked up 3 interceptions returned for touchdowns.  With the win CCC clinched home field throughout the regional rounds and due to a pre-planned week 11 bye week and a round 1 bye the Marauders are expected to be back to full health (including Jerzhan Newton) when they start their playoff push on November 16th.    

#3) King's Academy ( W 22-21 over Benjamin):  With Mooney, Berkeley, Florida High and Benjamin losing there was a spot open for the #3 team in 3A. The fact the Lions won wasn't an upset. King's has been one of the better 3A teams this year, but they lacked a signature win. After scoring a TD as time expired the Lions lined up for the game winning point after attempt to force overtime. After an off-sides on Benjamin the King's Academy rolled the dice and went for 2..and got it! The win gives the Lions serious momentum for the playoffs as they are also looking at the prospect of having 2 weeks off to rest. This was the signature win the Lions needed.

#4) Sarasota Cardinal Mooney (L 55-20 to CCC):  It's hard to drop Mooney far with quite a few other teams losing in 3A as well. They competed well in spurts against CCC, but once the Marauders got rolling, they had no response.  Despite the loss, there's still some quality to Mooney's wins- that early season win over Bishop Verot is looking healthy and the wins over Berkeley and Avon Park aren't bad. The Cougars finish off their regular season against a hot Sarasota Booker team who has won 4 in a row and is likely playoff bound as a wildcard in 5A. A win here and Cardinal Mooney should have enough points to secure the 2nd round 1 bye slot.  

#5) Benjamin ( L 22-21 to King's Academy):  The Bucs dropped their first game of the year, but with AH-D having 3 losses, should still secure a 1st round bye.  Benjamin has had a strong season and 1 loss doesn't change that, especially they were defeated with literally no time on the clock.  Benjamin's season is finished at this point and now they await to see who they are matched-up with in the playoffs.

--------------------
#6) Tampa Catholic: Crusaders head into Jesuit week 7-2.
#7) Orlando First Academy: The Royals knocked off Lake Highland Prep and are quickly moving up my rankings late in the season.
#8) Florida High: Seminoles are hanging in their after a highly competitive loss to Godby. Still my pick to represent the north.
#9) American Heritage Delray: Stallions defense is playing well, if the offense catches fire- they can make noise.
#10) Baldwin: Plays on Monday against West Nasseau- will move up with a win.


GAMES OF THE WEEK FOR WEEK 11

Chaminade-Madonna (7-2) at University School (9-0)

Chaminade has lost to the #1 team in 8A, the #1 team in 5A (at the time of the games) and will now try their luck against the #1 team in 4A.  This is not the same Chaminade team from week 1 and 5 respectively. The Lions defense has clamped down, the offense is lighting up the score board and there seems to almost be a synchronous harmony within the team. They aren't looking to the playoffs, they're looking at this week.

University School has done a good job rebuilding their program and is one of the favorites in Class 4A. A tough running back/QB combination, a solid offensive/defensive line and a physical secondary makes this one interesting.

THE PICK:  Comparing schedules is silly, Chaminade has played the who's who of Florida powerhouses: Deerfield, American Heritage Plantation, Booker T. and even Columbus in the KoC. University school does have wins over Glades Central and American Heritage Delray, but the rest of their schedule is either down this year or flat out not very good. I think University School competes well and maybe even has a lead late in the 3rd, but Chaminade is just flat out better right now.

Chaminade 35
Uschool 24

Tampa Jesuit (9-1) at Tampa Catholic (7-2)

One of the biggest catholic high school rivalries in the state is also one of the most lopsided. The rivalry is already personal, but this year it's probably even more personal as superstar Jesuit QB Kiael Kelly jumped from Tampa Catholic to Tampa Jesuit just before the season.  Kelly's father, Kenny Kelly is a Tampa Catholic legend which caused the Tampa Bay sports community to do a double take.

Jesuit comes into the game having already clinched a district championship. Tampa Catholic comes into the game 7-2 having secured a playoff spot already. With a win and some help (particularly a Mooney loss), it's possible the Crusaders could jump to the #2 seed for a first round bye. TC's fortunes changed after defeating Melbourne Central Catholic 41-0, they also scored a impressive win over Bishop Verot and Steinbrenner. 

THE PICK: Jesuit has won 18 in a row, many times they haven't been the more talented team but that will not be the case this Friday. Jesuit has commits to Miami, Iowa, Nebraska, Georgia Tech and a host of others. This is an extremely well coached and dangerous team that goes 70+ deep on their varsity roster.  They're also battle tested having already played Tampa Jefferson, Osceola Kowboys and CCC. 

Tampa Catholic is talented as well as they have 3 very solid college ready running backs (Jalen Bussey, Caleb Tate, Andrew Ellis). TC uses a 2 QB system but the bottom line is this; this Jesuit team is one of the better Jesuit teams in the past 10-15 years because unlike the Malik Davis era, they finally have a legit major power 5 QB and the WR's to compliment him and that's before you factor in D-1 prospect Michael Pittman at RB. TC can slow one or two down, but not all of them..

Jesuit 38
Tampa Catholic 14

OTHER GAMES:
Cardinal Mooney over Sarasota Booker by 7
Florida High over Arnold by 28
Clearwater Academy over Lakeland Christian by 35+
AHD over Everglades Prep by 35
Orlando First Academy over Villages Charter by 7
Ft. White over Parker by 21
Baldwin over Paxon by 35+
MCC over Ft. Pierce Central by 14
Calvary (C-Water) over Lake Highland Prep by 7
St. Pete Catholic over Hudson by 7
Westminster Christian over Palmer Trinity by 10
Cardinal Newman over West Boca by 21

NOTES:
I'll provide a regular season wrap-up next week. 
I've also been collecting questions that I'll post this week with some message board fodder.
 

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

The regular season is coming to a close- some teams will be playing their final game of the year, others are preparing for the playoffs. Historically, week 11 has seen teams play lesser competition, but with the new playoff point system- teams are jockeying for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Let's take a look at the week to come, but first my updated top 5:

#1) Chaminade-Madonna (W: 51-0 over Flanagan):  Stop me if you heard this before. The Lions are rolling right now and the schedule has really started to hold its own. AL. Muscle Shoals has gone on to finish 8-2, defeating some Alabama powerhouses. Piper and Booker T. are both ranked in the top 80 in Florida, Deerfield and AH-P, the two losses Chaminade has suffered are both ranked in the top 100 teams in America by most national polls.  This is typical of the Daemon Jones coached Lions- they tend to start slow and pick up steam moving forward.


#2) Clearwater Central Catholic ( W: 55-20 over Cardinal Mooney):  Kudos to the Marauders for being forward thinking. Earlier in the year, instead of winning games 50-0, CCC was quick to pull starters to build depth for the long run. It was probably frustrating to watch CCC give up 20 points late in games that were already decided, but the payoff for that frustration came against previously undefeated Cardinal Mooney.  With a combination of 6 starters out for various reasons, the Marauders needed those young guys to help stave off a well-prepared Mooney team. CCC only gave up 27 yards rushing (total) to the Cougars.  CCC's secondary also racked up 3 interceptions returned for touchdowns.  With the win CCC clinched home field throughout the regional rounds and due to a pre-planned week 11 bye week and a round 1 bye the Marauders are expected to be back to full health (including Jerzhan Newton) when they start their playoff push on November 16th.    

#3) King's Academy ( W 22-21 over Benjamin):  With Mooney, Berkeley, Florida High and Benjamin losing- there was a spot open for the #3 team in 3A. The fact the Lions won wasn't an upset. King's has been one of the better 3A teams this year, but they lacked a signature win. After scoring a TD as time expired the Lions lined up for the game winning point after attempt to force overtime. After an off-sides on Benjamin the King's Academy rolled the dice and went for 2..and got it! The win gives the Lions serious momentum for the playoffs as they are also looking at the prospect of having 2 weeks off to rest. This was the signature win the Lions needed.

#4) Sarasota Cardinal Mooney (L 55-20 to CCC):  It's hard to drop Mooney far with quite a few other teams losing in 3A as well. They competed well in spurts against CCC, but once the Marauders got rolling, they had no response.  Despite the loss, there's still some quality to Mooney's wins- that early season win over Bishop Verot is looking healthy and the wins over Berkeley and Avon Park aren't bad. The Cougars finish off their regular season against a hot Sarasota Booker team who has won 4 in a row and is likely playoff bound as a wildcard in 5A. A win here and Cardinal Mooney should have enough points to secure the 2nd round 1 bye slot.  

#5) Benjamin ( L 22-21 to King's Academy):  The Bucs dropped their first game of the year, but with AH-D having 3 losses, should still secure a 1st round bye.  Benjamin has had a strong season and 1 loss doesn't change that, especially they were defeated with literally no time on the clock.  Benjamin's season is finished at this point and now they await to see who they are matched-up with in the playoffs.

--------------------
#6) Tampa Catholic: Crusaders head into Jesuit week 7-2.
#7) Orlando First Academy: The Royals knocked off Lake Highland Prep and are quickly moving up my rankings late in the season.
#8) Florida High: Seminoles are hanging in their after a highly competitive loss to Godby. Still my pick to represent the north.
#9) American Heritage Delray: Stallions defense is playing well, if the offense catches fire- they can make noise.
#10) Baldwin: Plays on Monday against West Nasseau- will move up with a win.


GAMES OF THE WEEK FOR WEEK 11

Chaminade-Madonna (7-2) at University School (9-0)

Chaminade has lost to the #1 team in 8A, the #1 team in 5A (at the time of the games) and will now try their luck against the #1 team in 4A.  This is not the same Chaminade team from week 1 and 5 respectively. The Lions defense has clamped down, the offense is lighting up the score board and there seems to almost be a synchronous harmony within the team. They aren't looking to the playoffs, they're looking at this week.

University School has done a good job rebuilding their program and is one of the favorites in Class 4A. A tough running back/QB combination, a solid offensive/defensive line and a physical secondary makes this one interesting.

THE PICK:  Comparing schedules is silly, Chaminade has played the who's who of Florida powerhouses: Deerfield, American Heritage Plantation, Booker T. and even Columbus in the KoC. University school does have wins over Glades Central and American Heritage Delray, but the rest of their schedule is either down this year or flat out not very good. I think University School competes well and maybe even has a lead late in the 3rd, but Chaminade is just flat out better right now.

Chaminade 35
Uschool 24

Tampa Jesuit (9-1) at Tampa Catholic (7-2)

One of the biggest catholic high school rivalries in the state is also one of the most lopsided. The rivalry is already personal, but this year it's probably even more personal as superstar Jesuit QB Kiael Kelly jumped from Tampa Catholic to Tampa Jesuit just before the season.  Kelly's father, Kenny Kelly is a Tampa Catholic legend which caused the Tampa Bay sports community to do a double take.

Jesuit comes into the game having already clinched a district championship. Tampa Catholic comes into the game 7-2 having secured a playoff spot already. With a win and some help (particularly a Mooney loss), it's possible the Crusaders could jump to the #2 seed for a first round bye. TC's fortunes changed after defeating Melbourne Central Catholic 41-0, they also scored a impressive win over Bishop Verot and Steinbrenner. 

THE PICK: Jesuit has won 18 in a row, many times they haven't been the more talented team but that will not be the case this Friday. Jesuit has commits to Miami, Iowa, Nebraska, Georgia Tech and a host of others. This is an extremely well coached and dangerous team that goes 70+ deep on their varsity roster.  They're also battle tested having already played Tampa Jefferson, Osceola Kowboys and CCC. 

Tampa Catholic is talented as well as they have 3 very solid college ready running backs (Jalen Bussey, Caleb Tate, Andrew Ellis). TC uses a 2 QB system but the bottom line is this.  Tampa Catholic will try, but let's face it- this Jesuit team is one of the better Jesuit teams in the past 10-15 years because unlike the Malik Davis era, they finally have a legit major power 5 QB and the WR's to compliment him and that's before you factor in D-1 prospect Michael Pittman at RB. TC can slow one or two down, but not all of them..

Jesuit 38
Tampa Catholic 14

OTHER GAMES:
Cardinal Mooney over Sarasota Booker by 7
Florida High over Arnold by 28
Clearwater Academy over Lakeland Christian by 35+
AHD over Everglades Prep by 35
Orlando First Academy over Villages Charter by 7
Ft. White over Parker by 21
Baldwin over Paxon by 35+
MCC over Ft. Pierce Central by 14
Calvary (C-Water) over Lake Highland Prep by 7
St. Pete Catholic over Hudson by 7
Westminster Christian over Palmer Trinity by 10
Cardinal Newman over West Boca by 21

NOTES:
I'll provide a regular season wrap-up next week. 
I've also been collecting questions that I'll post this week with some message board fodder.
 

Who you feel is a bigger threat to Florida High? 

 

Fort White or Baldwin 

 

Fort White seems to be improving these last few weeks and seem to have a solid running back and qb combo who they got this off-season after transferring out of Columbia for more playing time 

 

They both have a common opponent in Dixie County 

 

Baldwin escaped a shootout while Fort White blasted Dixie County 2 weeks ago

[SPCjessica2004]

Columbia,

Good day! I'd like to wait until tomorrow evening when Baldwin plays West Nasseau.    Right now, I would say Ft. White is a bigger threat to Florida High though.

 

[DisabledAccount]

1 minute ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

Columbia,

Good day! I'd like to wait until tomorrow evening when Baldwin plays West Nasseau.    Right now, I would say Ft. White is a bigger threat to Florida High though.

 

That's fair,  it probably would be a question better asked after that game is played lol

[SPCjessica2004]

Questions time! Here are some questions I've been asked over the past few weeks that we feel are good talking points- these are also things we've discussed as well! Keep in mind the questions might be modified a bit since we're looking for patterns in questions not necessarily any one individual question:

1) Who is the biggest challenger to  Chaminade's throne?

Without any hesitation the answer is Tampa Catholic. TC has the athletes, coaching and most importantly line depth to potentially go blow for blow with Chaminade for the longest of any 3A team. They also have the running back depth and if you catch him on a good day, TC's QB can have a good enough game to hang with the Lions for the longest.   Part of the reason for TC's depth is that they are essentially a smaller 4A team playing in 3A since they experienced a population boom in the middle of the FHSAA classification cycle. They have a huge freshmen class and a relatively small senior class.

2) At the start of the season you sounded pretty confident that FSU High School (Florida High) would represent the north. Has anything changed your mind?

Honestly? No, but I do recognize that Orlando First Academy is out there at 10-0 and King's Academy just finished 9-1. Also, be on the look out for Baldwin who dismantled West Nassau to finish 9-1. Another team that is quietly having a very good season is Ft. White.  Still, Florida High is the most complete team and they've played the toughest schedule.

3) How do you see 3A evolving over the next few years?

Due to the FHSAA not cutting any classifications, I expect class 2A-4A to be redone almost from top to bottom. 3A in particular is in the struggle boat. Oxbridge already disbanded football. Tampa Catholic and AHD with the current cutoffs would be in 4A. My understanding is that Baldwin and Taylor County are going to 1A (rural); if they go, I doubt Ft. White stays in 3A by itself.

The current cutoffs are:
1A (Rural Only) 1-600
2A   1-290
3A   291-680
4A   681-1114

I believe the FHSAA sets the cutoff numbers based on the amount of schools they're trying to fit into these classifications.  So, a lot will be dependent on teams that are currently independent coming back into FHSAA region play or who does not return into FHSAA region play. 

Another tidbit is that I doubt teams will be able to petition down to 3A if they're classified as 4A. Despite the FHSAA's strong opinion of "no team moves down", they've consistently let Tampa Catholic play in 3A citing travel concerns. This was a fair argument on TC's part since at the time the FHSAA used a district system. In the new playoff point system I doubt any team (if classified as 4A) will be allowed to petition to move to 3A (or 3A to 2 etc..).

4) Will Jacksonville Trinity Christian return to 3A?

This is a good question! Teams like Jacksonville Trinity and Bishop Verot are playing up in classification for various reasons.  JaxTCA which won 4  state championshipsin a row in 3A was essentially forced into 5A due to not being able to schedule 10 games. Remember, in 2A-4A there are no districts, you're on your own to schedule your season. If the rumors I heard are true, JaxTCA was able to schedule 4 games and the rest would have been out of state. By moving to 5A they were able to be placed intro a district which helped with the scheduling issue.

To the spirit of the question though. I do not expect JaxTCA to return to 3A next year. They've gone on to resounding success in 5A and would run into the same scheduling issues they experienced before.

5) Will Chaminade-Madonna move to 5A?

Chaminade isn't quite in the same boat JaxTCA was a few years ago, but they're getting closer. The difference is that few of the Jacksonville area teams would willingly play JaxTCA in games that counted, the same can't be said regarding Chaminade and the Miami teams.   Chaminade will always be able to play Miami Central, Booker T, Deerfield Beach, American Heritage Plantation, Columbus. I also have no doubt Carol City, Northwestern, Miramar, Gibbons would have an issue playing them as well. The issue Chaminade faces is balancing their schedule. At the end of the day, Chaminade is still a 3A school that is dependent on loans, McKay and Step-up scholarships. Their financials are regularly audited by the Arch Diocese of Miami as well.  Many are quick to forget that just prior to the 2016 season, Chaminade faced a mass exodus of their talent leaving since there was a hiccup with the scholarship money. Shaun Shivers had even announced via twitter that he would be announcing his transfer school in the coming days. Chaminade was able to clear this up and become what they became.

In Chaminade's case the day that they move up to 5A won't because they can't field 10 games, it will be from peer pressure in the community to play in a tougher class.


 

[DisabledAccount]

On 10/28/2018 at 7:34 PM, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

That's fair,  it probably would be a question better asked after that game is played lol

@SPCjessica2004

 

Well i will ask now since the Baldwin game has been played lol

 

Personally i wasn't all that surprised that Baldwin defeated West Nassau but i won't say i expected Baldwin to beat them like they did

 

It does seem that there are 3 serious contenders in 3a region 1 in Florida High, Fort White and Baldwin 

 

I'm not buying into St Joseph being legit until they beat a team higher than 2a, even though St Joseph is undefeated and deserve to be in playoffs as a result I feel any of the 3 above teams will have no trouble defeating them

 

 

Problem is even if any of those 3 make it to finals it may be short of a miracle for them to not get running clocked by Chaminade or even by Clearwater Central Catholic if they somehow upset Chaminade 

[DisabledAccount]

45 minutes ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

Questions time! Here are some questions I've been asked over the past few weeks that we feel are good talking points- these are also things we've discussed as well! Keep in mind the questions might be modified a bit since we're looking for patterns in questions not necessarily any one individual question:

1) Who is the biggest challenger to  Chaminade's throne?

Without any hesitation the answer is Tampa Catholic. TC has the athletes, coaching and most importantly line depth to potentially go blow for blow with Chaminade for the longest of any 3A team. They also have the running back depth and if you catch him on a good day, TC's QB can have a good enough game to hang with the Lions for the longest.   Part of the reason for TC's depth is that they are essentially a smaller 4A team playing in 3A since they experienced a population boom in the middle of the FHSAA classification cycle. They have a huge freshmen class and a relatively small senior class.

2) At the start of the season you sounded pretty confident that FSU High School (Florida High) would represent the north. Has anything changed your mind?

Honestly? No, but I do recognize that Orlando First Academy is out there at 10-0 and King's Academy just finished 9-1. Also, be on the look out for Baldwin who dismantled West Nassau to finish 9-1. Another team that is quietly having a very good season is Ft. White.  Still, Florida High is the most complete team and they've played the toughest schedule.

3) How do you see 3A evolving over the next few years?

Due to the FHSAA not cutting any classifications, I expect class 2A-4A to be redone almost from top to bottom. 3A in particular is in the struggle boat. Oxbridge already disbanded football. Tampa Catholic and AHD with the current cutoffs would be in 4A. My understanding is that Baldwin and Taylor County are going to 1A (rural); if they go, I doubt Ft. White stays in 3A by itself.

The current cutoffs are:
1A (Rural Only) 1-600
2A   1-290
3A   291-680
4A   681-1114

I believe the FHSAA sets the cutoff numbers based on the amount of schools they're trying to fit into these classifications.  So, a lot will be dependent on teams that are currently independent coming back into FHSAA region play or who does not return into FHSAA region play. 

Another tidbit is that I doubt teams will be able to petition down to 3A if they're classified as 4A. Despite the FHSAA's strong opinion of "no team moves down", they've consistently let Tampa Catholic play in 3A citing travel concerns. This was a fair argument on TC's part since at the time the FHSAA used a district system. In the new playoff point system I doubt any team (if classified as 4A) will be allowed to petition to move to 3A (or 3A to 2 etc..).

4) Will Jacksonville Trinity Christian return to 3A?

This is a good question! Teams like Jacksonville Trinity and Bishop Verot are playing up in classification for various reasons.  JaxTCA which won 4  state championshipsin a row in 3A was essentially forced into 5A due to not being able to schedule 10 games. Remember, in 2A-4A there are no districts, you're on your own to schedule your season. If the rumors I heard are true, JaxTCA was able to schedule 4 games and the rest would have been out of state. By moving to 5A they were able to be placed intro a district which helped with the scheduling issue.

To the spirit of the question though. I do not expect JaxTCA to return to 3A next year. They've gone on to resounding success in 5A and would run into the same scheduling issues they experienced before.

5) Will Chaminade-Madonna move to 5A?

Chaminade isn't quite in the same boat JaxTCA was a few years ago, but they're getting closer. The difference is that few of the Jacksonville area teams would willingly play JaxTCA in games that counted, the same can't be said regarding Chaminade and the Miami teams.   Chaminade will always be able to play Miami Central, Booker T, Deerfield Beach, American Heritage Plantation, Columbus. I also have no doubt Carol City, Northwestern, Miramar, Gibbons would have an issue playing them as well. The issue Chaminade faces is balancing their schedule. At the end of the day, Chaminade is still a 3A school that is dependent on loans, McKay and Step-up scholarships. Their financials are regularly audited by the Arch Diocese of Miami as well.  Many are quick to forget that just prior to the 2016 season, Chaminade faced a mass exodus of their talent leaving since there was a hiccup with the scholarship money. Shaun Shivers had even announced via twitter that he would be announcing his transfer school in the coming days. Chaminade was able to clear this up and become what they became.

In Chaminade's case the day that they move up to 5A won't because they can't field 10 games, it will be from peer pressure in the community to play in a tougher class.


 

When you say Tampa Catholic is the biggest threat are we speaking long term or just this season 

 

And if just this season where would you rank CCC among threats to Chaminade? 

[SPCjessica2004]

46 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

When you say Tampa Catholic is the biggest threat are we speaking long term or just this season 

 

And if just this season where would you rank CCC among threats to Chaminade? 

Columbia,

Good questions!

IF (and granted it's a theoretical situation), you could take 1 3a team and have them play Chaminade I think the team that matches up best with them would be Tampa Catholic. I outlined the reasons in my previous post, but they have a huge offensive line, hard hitting linebackers and speed in the secondary to match-up with the Lions weapons.  Over the course of the game, Chaminade's WR group would eventually outlast the Crusaders and get open downfield, but that would be my pick.

I'm unsure about CCC. The reason I'm unsure of CCC is because the team that takes the field on November 16th will be completely different than the CCC team that took the field for those 10 wins. The good ad bad news is, they're finally healthy, but the guys they had out missed between 6-7 games and now they're likely ruining chemistry in the pressure packed situation of the playoffs.

Jerzhan Newton is one of the best players in all of 3A and will be a national prospect next year, but he hasn't played since week 3. What happens to the RB that played his heart out to get the Marauders 10 wins?   Same thing with the rest of the players that were out for most of the season. Do they just come in like they didn't miss a beat?  While I'm glad the players injuries weren't serious and I know the players coming back are some pretty legit D-1 caliber players, I don't envy their situation going into the playoffs.















 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

5) Will Chaminade-Madonna move to 5A?

Chaminade isn't quite in the same boat JaxTCA was a few years ago, but they're getting closer. The difference is that few of the Jacksonville area teams would willingly play JaxTCA in games that counted, the same can't be said regarding Chaminade and the Miami teams.   Chaminade will always be able to play Miami Central, Booker T, Deerfield Beach, American Heritage Plantation, Columbus. I also have no doubt Carol City, Northwestern, Miramar, Gibbons would have an issue playing them as well. The issue Chaminade faces is balancing their schedule. At the end of the day, Chaminade is still a 3A school that is dependent on loans, McKay and Step-up scholarships. Their financials are regularly audited by the Arch Diocese of Miami as well.  Many are quick to forget that just prior to the 2016 season, Chaminade faced a mass exodus of their talent leaving since there was a hiccup with the scholarship money. Shaun Shivers had even announced via twitter that he would be announcing his transfer school in the coming days. Chaminade was able to clear this up and become what they became.

In Chaminade's case the day that they move up to 5A won't because they can't field 10 games, it will be from peer pressure in the community to play in a tougher class.


 

Chaminade is an anomaly in the system.  Without a long-term plan to build depth from within and coaching continuity, I think they will struggle sustaining.  With the exception of St Thomas Aquinas, I believe all of the south Florida private schools are, to some extent, potentially teetering on the edge of a backslide.  Gibbons and University appear to be on the right path and have a substantial amount of home-grown talent.  But as I pointed out in the post below, Chaminade will be in trouble unless they are willing to take a hit in the short-term performance to build for the long-term.  If not, they will force themselves into a cycle of reliance upon transfers.  And as whimsical as kids are today, I just cannot see a program relying upon transfers every year to sustain itself. 

While they are flourishing, these smaller private schools are like men playing amongst boys in their respective classes and nobody wants them around.  The problem is when these small, private schools move up in class and then the program crashes..as it has done in the past 10 years at Chaminade, Oxbridge and University.   Chaminade went from being a 2A powerhouse under Coach Guandolo in the early 2000's to a team getting demolished in the late 2000's, losing to teams like Parkway Academy 40-7.  University School went from being a nationally ranked state champion in 2012 to a team getting beaten by 20 or more points in 7 of their games in 2014, even losing 20-7 to Village Academy.  Let's not forget that Cardinal Gibbons and American Heritage came from relative obscurity to national rankings in very short order in recent years. 

That said, if Chaminade moves up to 5A and the crash occurs, it will not be pretty, because they will become just like every other 3A school then, maybe even in the bottom half of 3A.  It could happen to American Heritage and Cardinal Gibbons in the future if the winds change direction.  It's not all private schools.  The issue seems to be concentrated in south Florida.  Admittedly, I don't know an easy solution.  

 

[SPCjessica2004]

@OldSchoolLion

I couldn't agree more! That was a great post :-)

[OldSchoolLion]

41 minutes ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

@OldSchoolLion

I couldn't agree more! That was a great post :-)

Jessica, back in the 1980's and prior, none of the private schools could beat the big boys year in and year out.  Not even St Thomas Aquinas, which was always a great school for athletics.  Back then, every few years these schools might produce a great team that could compete with anyone, but not year-in and year-out like some of the private schools today. 

Under "normal" circumstances, a school with 500 students, like Chaminade had back then, is not going to reload every year.  There is just not a big enough pool of kids to do it.  Madison County is one of the best small-school programs in the state, if not the country.  They have a little over 500 kids.  As good as they are, they are not capable of producing teams every year that can compete against the best big schools.  Occasionally they do.

Cardinal Gibbons has 1150 students...still a relatively small school.  I would expect them to have a 6-4 season every once in a while.  But there seems to be this expectation today that certain teams should be nationally ranked every year.  It's completely abnormal.  Look at the stuff I just posted concerning teams from the 70's and 80's.  Even the biggest schools then did not produce championship quality teams every year.  St Thomas can probably pull it off today because they have a phenomenal reputation and a much larger student body than most private schools.   

[SPCjessica2004]

I received a nice E-mail this morning from a former Tampa Catholic coach who asked a very simple yet very complex question, "Jess and family, what do you think TC needs to do to beat Jesuit tonight?"

Here is what we've come up with:

1) Start fast. TC can't play from behind. TC has an explosive offense but the teams that have defeated them (or they struggle against) tend to score first.

2) Depth Chart.  Over the years the number 1 reason I hear that TC has struggled against Jesuit is depth. Jesuit will dress about 75 on varsity. Tampa Catholic will dress about 42-45. The story that is often cited is that Jesuit rotates their entire offensive and defensive line series by series to stay fresh. This was actually a statement by Jeff Carlson back when BHSN streamed their game of the week. Jeff was referring to the Malik Davis Jesuit era where that did indeed happen, but I've been told Jesuit hasn't done that since Malik graduated.

Our opinion? Even though it's a true statement, it's also an excuse. Jesuit's only loss this year was to CCC. In that game CCC dressed 25 varsity players. Due to 6 starters not playing, they were forced to start a significant amount of freshmen and sophomores. Both of their lines played both ways for most if not all of the game. The 2018 version of Tampa Catholic's #1 strength is their offensive line.  A game that Jesuit almost lost was to Jefferson early in the year. Jefferson didn't have the injury situation CCC did, but they only dressed about 30 varsity players that game. Jesuit held on to win, but Jefferson was right with them.

3) Mental toughness. This is the biggest and probably most uncontrollable part of the game. TC simply needs to play their game and not let Jesuit influence them. This is one of the biggest games in the state and probably a top 25 game in the entire country, it's a big spotlight on both teams. TC simply has to play their game and not get caught up in the media circus surrounding the game.



For fans outside of the Tampa Bay area that aren't familiar with the TC/Jesuit rivalry- there has been some amazing coverage of the game from pretty much every news source around. Here's a small sample:

Some really good news coverage of the Tampa Jesuit at Tampa Catholic game:
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/high-schools/2018/11/01/tampa-catholic-jesuit-is-ultimate-test-of-loyalty-for-the-kelly-family/

http://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/sports/2018/11/01/kelly-family-knows-both-sides-of-jesuit-tc-rivalry



 

[SPCjessica2004]

Accountability time!

Picked Chaminade over Uschool 35-24.  Chaminade won 35-0. I got Chaminade's score on the button, but I expected Uschool to be a little more prolific offensively. They were steamrolled in this game. Overall, I picked this winner.

Picked Tampa Jesuit over TC 38-14. Jesuit won 17-7. The game wasn't as close as the final indicated. Tampa Catholic only recorded 6 offensive plays in the first half and no first downs. Granted the playing field was extremely soggy, but Jesuit had to play in it as well. Jesuit's defense is legit.

Cardinal Mooney over Sarasota Booker by 7.   Booker won 30-7. Mooney had a hangover effect going on from losing their winning streak last week. Booker has turned into quite a solid football program the second half of the season.

Florida High over Arnold by 28. Florida High won by 11. Good ending to their season.
Clearwater Academy over Lakeland Christian by 35+.  CAI scored a lot of points, but LCS gave them a fight. CAI 49, LCS 31 was the final.  LCS can light up a scoreboard.
AHD over Everglades Prep by 35. Bingo!
Orlando First Academy over Villages Charter by 7. I got this one wrong. Villages Charter ends 1st Academy's 30 something regular season winning streak. First Academy will still make noise in 3A Region 2.
Ft. White over Parker by 21. Boom! 21 on the dot.
Baldwin over Paxon by 35+. Boom! Baldwin won by 35.
MCC over Ft. Pierce Central by 14. MCC won by 8 to finish 6-4. MCC took some lumps this year, but they are better for it now.
Calvary (C-Water) over Lake Highland Prep by 7.  Calvary won by 15 or 16.
St. Pete Catholic over Hudson by 7. Go Barons! Finish season 6-4 and can build going forward!
Westminster Christian over Palmer Trinity by 10. I was wrong, but I thought this was Westminster Christian Palmer played Westminster Academy.  Blame my hubby, he screwed up!
Cardinal Newman over West Boca by 21. Newman won by 16.

Overall, not a bad week. Spreads were reasonable.  Need to wait until tomorrow to check out the FHSAA show to see the announced standings before looking at the regional playoffs.

[LakelandGator]

Jessica,

CAI was as good as advertised last night. How many 3A teams beat them?

LCS put up a good fight, and I think the Vikings will have a chance next week.

https://twitter.com/CountyPolk

[SPCjessica2004]

4 minutes ago, LakelandGator said:

CAI was as good as advertised last night. How many 3A teams beat them?

Very good question!  Not many 3A teams would beat them.  Chaminade and CCC are only two teams that I see could beat them. They clearly have it rolling right now.  I believe they're trying to play a team from Texas as their post season game.

LCS put up a great fight in that game LakelandGator. I can't really say enough about how far LCS has come this year under Danny Williams.  I've been told they'll travel to Tampa Catholic next week. If that's indeed the game, it's going to be a dandy!  That's a winnable game for LCS, but they have to be able to slow down TC's running attack. Tampa Catholic will have to slow down the passing attack for LCS.  I'll look at that game more in-depth if it comes to fruition.

[LakelandGator]

On 11/3/2018 at 9:56 AM, SPCjessica2004 said:

Very good question!  Not many 3A teams would beat them.  Chaminade and CCC are only two teams that I see could beat them. They clearly have it rolling right now.  I believe they're trying to play a team from Texas as their post season game.

LCS put up a great fight in that game LakelandGator. I can't really say enough about how far LCS has come this year under Danny Williams.  I've been told they'll travel to Tampa Catholic next week. If that's indeed the game, it's going to be a dandy!  That's a winnable game for LCS, but they have to be able to slow down TC's running attack. Tampa Catholic will have to slow down the passing attack for LCS.  I'll look at that game more in-depth if it comes to fruition.

1. Very good skill level, and much bigger in the trenches than I realized. Would be nice to see how they would do as an FHSAA member.

2, I agree, Coach Williams did a very good job keeping the team on course after the season-ending injury to star QB Ryan Overstreet. And I agree again, defense will be the key this week. LCS has proven it can score.

Looking forward to some good 1st round matchups.

https://twitter.com/CountyPolk