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LAZ

Way Too Early 2019 Forecast

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Using the past 20 seasons of data, here is a mathematical projection of the 2019 season. It should be noted, this data is based on past performance and does not take coaching changes, returning players, etc. into consideration. And though entertaining,  I would certainly not take it to the bank. After all, you wouldn't play the stock market based entirely on historic data.

The first analysis is Classification Strength. This ranking is a weighted moving average combining team power rankings and median power rankings for each classification. It lists the Top 4 teams in each class. The second analysis measures "parity" within each classification using Std. Deviation as the guideline.  

CLASS AVG Strgth #1 #2 #3 #4
7A 128.33 St. Thomas Aquinas  Venice Lakeland Armwood
8A 127.24 Christopher Columbus  Plant Apopka Deerfield Beach
5A 125.61 Miami Northwestern American Heritage (Pl) Raines  Vanguard
6A 124.42 Miami Central Columbia  Robert E. Lee  Naples
4A 117.28 Miami Carol City Cardinal Gibbons Cocoa Washington (Mia)
3A 114.23 Trinity Christian (Jax)  Chaminade Clearwater Central Catholic King’s Academy
1A 110.19 Madison County Pahokee Fort White Baker
2A 99.58 Champagnat Catholic University Christian North Florida Christian Victory Christian
         

PARITY

         
CLASS STD DEV Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked
8A 12.82 Christopher Columbus  Celebration
7A 13.37 St. Thomas Aquinas  Tohopekaliga
6A 13.70 Miami Central Lecanto
1A 13.89 Madison County Bronson
5A 14.04 Miami Northwestern Gulf
2A 14.94 Champagnat Catholic Merritt Island Christian
4A 18.66 Miami Carol City Somerset Canyons
3A 18.91 Trinity Christian (Jax)  Pinecrest Prep
         
           

Next will be the same analysis looking at Regional Data and the Top 3 for each Region:

CLASS REG AVG Strgth 1 2 3
8A 1 134.32 Apopka Winter Park Bartram Trail
7A 1 132.86 Wekiva Crestview Navarre 
7A 2 129.37 Lakeland Armwood  Viera
5A 1 128.38 Raines Godby  Pine Forest
7A 3 127.48 Venice Dwyer  Manatee
4A 4 127.38 Miami Carol City Cardinal Gibbons Washington (Mia)
6A 1 127.01 Columbia Robert E. Lee Mainland
6A 4 126.62 Miami Central Naples Miami Southridge 
7A 4 126.35 St. Thomas Aquinas  Miramar Atlantic (Del)
8A 4 126.05 Christopher Columbus South Dade  Miami Palmetto
5A 3 125.48 Rockledge  Jesuit  Chamberlain
6A 3 124.75 Braden River  Palmetto Hillsborough
8A 3 124.73 Deerfield Beach Vero Beach Palm Beach Central
5A 2 124.67 Vanguard Jones  Bishop Moore 
8A 2 124.56 Plant Riverview (Sar) Osceola (Kis)
5A 4 123.74 Miami Northwestern American Heritage (Pl) Miami Jackson
3A 3 120.83 Clearwater Central Catholic King’s Academy Berkeley Prep
6A 2 119.51 Largo St. Petersburg  Gaither
4A 3 117.59 Glades Central  Tampa Catholic American Heritage (Del)
3A 1 115.46 Trinity Christian (Jax)  Florida High "FSU" Pensacola Catholic
4A 2 115.45 Cocoa Astronaut  Palatka
1A 4 114.10 Pahokee Hawthorne Williston
1A 3 113.33 Madison County Fort White Dixie County
4A 1 112.13 Bolles Bradford West Nassau
3A 2 111.47 Melbourne Central Catholic  Lakeland Christian First Academy (Orl)
1A 1 107.51 Baker Vernon Northview
1A 2 107.49 Taylor County Blountstown Port St. Joe
3A 4 105.29 Chaminade (Hollywood)  Miami Edison Calvary Christian (FtL)
2A 3 103.78 Admiral Farragut Zephyrhills Christian  Seffner Christian
2A 4 103.34 Champagnat Catholic  Moore Haven Glades Day 
2A 1 95.99 University Christian  North Florida Christian FAMU
2A 2 92.72 Victory Christian  Foundation Academy Orangewood Christian
         
           
PARITY          
CLASS REG STD DEV Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked
1A 1 8.18 Baker Cottondale
8A 1 10.18 Apopka University (Orl)
2A 4 10.80 Champagnat Catholic SW Florida Christian 
7A 1 11.06 Wekiva Winter Springs
7A 4 11.40 St. Thomas Aquinas Miami Beach 
6A 2 11.92 Largo Lecanto
6A 3 12.11 Braden River Okeechobee
8A 4 12.70 Christopher Columbus Coral Glades
2A 3 12.97 Admiral Farragut Keswick Christian
8A 3 13.07 Deerfield Beach Spanish River
5A 2 13.38 Vanguard Central
5A 4 13.39 Miami Northwestern LaBelle
5A 1 13.47 Raines Paxon
8A 2 13.99 Plant Celebration
7A 3 14.08 Venice Leto 
6A 1 14.20 Columbia Englewood
1A 2 14.23 Taylor County Liberty County
1A 4 14.49 Pahokee Bronson
6A 4 14.98 Miami Central East Lee County
4A 1 15.65 Bolles North Bay Haven
5A 3 16.25 Rockledge  Gulf
7A 2 16.77 Lakeland Tohopekaliga
2A 2 16.79 Victory Christian Merritt Island Christian
3A 3 16.85 Clearwater Central Catholic Oasis
3A 2 17.29 Melbourne Central Catholic  Cornerstone
2A 1 17.29 University Christian Rocky Bayou Christian
4A 2 17.80 Cocoa Umatilla
4A 3 17.88 Glades Central Somerset Canyons
3A 1 18.10 Trinity Christian (Jax)  Wolfson
1A 3 18.40 Madison County Bell
4A 4 21.77 Miami Carol City Somerset Academy
3A 4 22.34 Chaminade Pinecrest Prep

Finally, we will look at District Data and the Top 2 for each District:

CLASS DIST AVG Strgth 1 2
6A 2 141.18 Columbia  Robert E. Lee
6A 16 141.07 Miami Central Miami Southridge 
8A 1 141.03 Bartram Trail Mandarin
7A 8 139.83 Armwood Tampa Bay Tech
8A 15 138.45 Christopher Columbus Coral Gables
7A 1 138.40 Crestview Navarre 
6A 12 138.12 Braden River Palmetto
7A 7 136.12 Lakeland Bloomingdale
5A 2 135.72 Godby Wakulla
8A 4 134.98 Apopka West Orange
7A 2 134.75 Fletcher  Buchholz 
8A 2 134.42 Seminole (San) Flagler Palm Coast
8A 9 134.02 Vero Beach Treasure Coast
7A 3 133.57 Wekiva Edgewater
7A 10 132.88 Venice Manatee
5A 15 132.72 American Heritage (Pl) Hallandale 
5A 9 131.68 Rockledge  Palm Bay
5A 6 131.58 Vanguard  North Marion
7A 14 129.48 St. Thomas Aquinas Plantation 
8A 16 129.35 South Dade Miami Palmetto
5A 5 129.03 Clay Menendez 
5A 16 128.99 Miami Northwestern Miami Jackson
5A 3 128.78 Baker County Ed White
6A 14 128.76 Naples Immokalee
5A 12 128.65 Jesuit Chamberlain
7A 12 127.94 Dwyer Palm Beach Lakes 
5A 10 127.45 Sebring Hardee
6A 1 127.34 Gulf Breeze Escambia
7A 15 126.97 Miramar McArthur 
8A 5 126.88 Dr. Phillips  Boone 
5A 1 126.86 Pine Forest West Florida
8A 3 126.86 Winter Park Oviedo
7A 9 126.76 Pinellas Park East Lake 
6A 3 126.54 St. Augustine  Ponte Vedra
8A 14 126.13 Western Piper 
7A 16 125.94 North Miami Hialeah
7A 11 125.81 Riverdale Lehigh
8A 8 125.46 Riverview (Sar) Ridge Community
8A 10 125.18 Palm Beach Central Palm Beach Gardens 
6A 8 124.63 St. Petersburg  Boca Ciega
8A 12 124.11 Deerfield Beach Boca Raton
6A 9 124.05 Lake Gibson Heritage
6A 10 123.59 Hillsborough Jefferson
7A 5 122.71 Viera  Harmony
6A 4 122.66 Mainland New Smyrna Beach
6A 7 122.52 Largo Clearwater 
8A 7 122.38 Plant Steinbrenner
7A 13 122.17 Atlantic (Del) Ely
6A 13 121.90 North Fort Myers Fort Myers 
5A 4 120.90 Cape Coral DeSoto County
7A 6 119.51 Winter Haven  Liberty
5A 14 119.42 Coconut Creek Jensen Beach
5A 7 119.09 Jones Bishop Moore 
8A 13 118.73 Douglas Taravella
7A 4 118.50 Lyman East River 
5A 8 118.15 Nature Coast Tech Hernando
6A 15 117.62 Dillard Boyd Anderson
6A 6 117.32 Gaither Freedom (Tam)
6A 11 116.34 Fort Pierce Westwood Sebastian River
5A 13 116.16 Cape Coral DeSoto County
8A 6 115.41 Osceola (Kis) Lake Nona
8A 11 114.90 Park Vista  Santaluces
5A 11 114.14 Zephyrhills  River Ridge
6A 5 113.10 Springstead  Lake Minneola
         

PARITY

CLASS DIST STD DEV Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked
5A 5 4.88 Clay Eastside
5A 13 5.52 Cape Coral LaBelle
7A 4 6.46 Lyman  Winter Springs
6A 12 7.25 Braden River  Southeast
7A 11 7.26 Riverdale North Port
8A 14 7.28 Western Flanagan
6A 1 7.73 Gulf Breeze Fort Walton Beach 
7A 16 8.02 North Miami Miami Beach 
7A 2 8.03 Fletcher Creekside
7A 15 8.08 Miramar South Broward
8A 10 8.37 Palm Beach Central Jupiter 
5A 2 8.48 Godby Rickards 
6A 11 8.56 Fort Pierce Westwood Okeechobee
8A 1 8.84 Bartram Trail Nease
6A 8 9.15 St. Petersburg  Dixie Hollins
5A 14 9.46 Coconut Creek Suncoast
8A 2 9.63 Seminole (San) West Port
8A 13 9.70 Douglas Coral Glades
8A 4 9.87 Apopka Evans
5A 3 10.08 Baker County Westside 
6A 14 10.52 Naples Lely
7A 1 10.66 Crestview Leon
7A 8 10.97 Armwood Wiregrass Ranch
8A 11 11.13 Park Vista John I. Leonard
8A 3 11.42 Winter Park University (Orl)
8A 9 11.42 Vero Beach Fort Pierce Central
5A 1 11.43 Pine Forest Bay 
8A 8 11.48 Riverview (Sar) Haines City
5A 12 11.52 Jesuit Bayshore
5A 8 11.53 Nature Coast Tech Central
6A 9 11.66 Lake Gibson Bayside
6A 10 11.98 Hillsborough King
6A 6 12.28 Gaither Fivay
6A 15 12.34 Dillard Northeast (OP)
6A 5 12.36 Springstead Lecanto
7A 3 12.48 Wekiva Forest
7A 13 12.62 Atlantic (Del) West Boca Raton
5A 15 13.10 American Heritage (Pl) Stranahan
8A 5 13.33 Dr. Phillips Windermere
5A 9 13.54 Rockledge  Atlantic (PtO)
8A 15 13.72 Christopher Columbus Miami
8A 7 13.79 Plant Palm Harbor University
7A 12 13.92 Dwyer  Royal Palm Beach
6A 7 14.27 Largo Osceola (Sem)
7A 6 14.44 Winter Haven  Poinciana
7A 9 14.82 Pinellas Park Leto 
7A 7 14.94 Lakeland Strawberry Crest
6A 13 15.03 North Fort Myers East Lee County
5A 6 15.16 Vanguard Belleview
6A 16 15.67 Miami Central South Miami
5A 16 15.72 Miami Northwestern Miami Springs
6A 4 16.10 Mainland Pine Ridge
5A 11 16.49 Zephyrhills  Gulf
6A 2 16.59 Columbia Middleburg 
8A 16 16.74 South Dade Coral Reef
5A 7 16.76 Jones Tavares
6A 3 17.25 St. Augustine  Englewood
7A 14 17.76 St. Thomas Aquinas South Plantation
7A 5 17.95 Viera Tohopekaliga
8A 12 19.09 Deerfield Beach Spanish River
8A 6 19.49 Osceola (Kis) Celebration
5A 10 20.23 Sebring Lake Region
5A 4 20.75 Raines Paxon
7A 10 21.12 Venice Lakewood Ranch

 

         

 

  

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Laz,

In terms of parity, the smaller the number the less differentiation between the teams. In other words, we would expect these districts to be much more wide open (if historic numbers came through). Am I reading that right? Good information as always. Why the FHSAA doesn't just pay you to the rankings is beyond me. 

 

 

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Gatorman-UF,

Thanks. And you are correct. The lower the number, the more evenly matched the teams are. As far as the FHSAA is concerned, I would be more than willing to provide them rankings, for football or any other sport for that matter. My system works extremely well for games like basketball and baseball because of the amount of games that are played each season. More data = More Accuracy.

Anyway, I guess they know how to find me if the need ever arises.      

 

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On 3/14/2019 at 11:51 AM, LAZ said:

After all, you wouldn't play the stock market based entirely on historic data.

Yes, that is the best way to play the market. But you have to breakdown the data into different historical periods and assign weights to the data, with the most recent being the strongest in determining short to intermediate term price performance in the security or average you are trading. 

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