8A region 1 playoffs

[badbird]

this is projected not what will show this week

 

1. Winter Park if they beat Lake Mary if they lose they would flip with Wekiva

2. Wekiva could move to 1 if Lake Mary beats Winter Park

3. Flagler Palm Coast

4. Seminole 

5. Apopka could move to 6 if Edgewater beats Boone, Lake Mary beats Winter Park and Seminole beats Bishop moore

6 Lake Mary could move to 5 or to 7

7. Boone If they beat Edgewater and Lake Mary loses to Winter Park then 6

8. Spruce Creek could move to 7 would need Boone to lose to Edgewater and Mt Dora beat gateway.  

West orange needs Spruce Creek to lose to NSB to get in

[1mustangW]

Have you done the math to see what it would take for Apopka to drop to 7 or 8. Would be interesting to see Wekiva vs Apopka week 1 of the playoffs.

[DarterBlue2]

5 hours ago, badbird said:

this is projected not what will show this week

 

1. Winter Park if they beat Lake Mary if they lose they would flip with Wekiva

2. Wekiva could move to 1 if Lake Mary beats Winter Park

3. Flagler Palm Coast

4. Seminole 

5. Apopka could move to 6 if Edgewater beats Boone, Lake Mary beats Winter Park and Seminole beats Bishop moore

6 Lake Mary could move to 5 or to 7

7. Boone If they beat Edgewater and Lake Mary loses to Winter Park then 6

8. Spruce Creek could move to 7 would need Boone to lose to Edgewater and Mt Dora beat gateway.  

West orange needs Spruce Creek to lose to NSB to get in

Suppose Apopka lost to Oakridge? Unlikely, but strange things do happen. Would Apopka still be in ahead of West Orange? Both would be four loss teams and an Oakridge loss would be to a low category team.

[badbird]

If Apopka lost to Oak Ridge they would be the #7 at 38.4 or 37.9 depending on Boone/Edgewater outcome and they could still be 6 if Boone lost.

[DarterBlue2]

2 minutes ago, badbird said:

If Apopka lost to Oak Ridge they would be the #7 at 38.4 or 37.9 depending on Boone/Edgewater outcome and they could still be 6 if Boone lost.

So, essentially, Apopka is a big beneficiary of the new system, then. Under the old, they would have been eliminated last Friday. I kind of feel sorry for West Orange. Not really, but just saying ... 

[badbird]

yes Apopka benefited greatly and West orange is going to go 6-4 be a runner up and miss the playoffs.  They had first and goal from the 3 vs Olympia week 1 and down by 4 under a minute left and failed to score.  Tried a QB sneak and fumbled the snap.  That is what is going to keep them out. 

[badbird]

Winter Park if they win vs lake mary and boone wins 44.3 edgewater wins 43.8 if they lose and boone wins 42.8 edgewater 42.3

wekiva is pretty much locked at 43.1 if they win vs lake nona

FPC pretty much locked at 41.1

Seminole can't pass FPC so they get the #4 win or lose.  

Apopka 40.4 if they win and boone wins 39.9 if edgewater wins

Lake mary if they beat winter park and Seminole wins 40 Bishop moore 39.5.  If they lose and Seminole wins 38 bishop moore 37.5

Boone If they win and gateway wins 39.6 Mt Dora 39.1.  If they lose and Gateway wins 37.6 mt Dora 37.1

Spruce Creek 37.3 if they win

West orange 36.6 if they win

[DarterBlue2]

5 minutes ago, badbird said:

yes Apopka benefited greatly and West orange is going to go 6-4 be a runner up and miss the playoffs.  They had first and goal from the 3 vs Olympia week 1 and down by 4 under a minute left and failed to score.  Tried a QB sneak and fumbled the snap.  That is what is going to keep them out. 

Tough. With the first season under the new system almost in the books, I have mixed feelings about it. I kind of feel that some simpler adjustments could have yielded the stated objectives.

[1mustangW]

Will the brackets be set in the playoffs or will they re-seed after each round?

[badbird]

set

[STILL KRUNK]

FACT IS:

Top 8 teams in the region will not be in the playoffs. Now yeah I know, get it done on your end. Wins a Win.  But really its not anymore. You will weigh an win against a Cat 1 team who was #1 in the state, the same as (with all due respect) a Cat 1 win against Lake Nona?

There is not benefit in districts anymore, why have them. WO beat a team and good enough to place runner up and is out.

I would prefer us using Laz or Pinkos  For many reasons, for another discussion.

Eliminate Conference requirements, WO had to pull a Freedom and Cypress creek game out of the hat.  IF they would have been able to schedule ANYONE else who had a pulse they would be in....at 6-4.

I just really am a little, well i don't know what you would call it, but the "Hey lets throw this playoff system out there and see how she BLOWS!"  Just not real excited about that.  You may want to asterik this season.

If you are serious and i think its been mentioned on here.

Shorten your season to 9 games everybody get week 10 open.  top 16 teams play, starting what would be week 11(10th game).  You don't lengthen season and there is a clear delineation of bottom 1/3.......6-4 has a chance to earn and does not get lost in the scenario here. That would leave 2-7s to play bowl games, KNOWING they didn't deserve to be in the playoffs!

Little good that will do here.....this year.......8 best teams aren't in there and I would challenge someone whose watch the top ten play to argue otherwise

 

[badbird]

forfeits change my numbers.  I will redo them 

[badbird]

1. Winter Park Possible 40.8-44.8 I project 44.3 District Champ

Six games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win. Winter Park vs Lake Mary, Lake Nona vs Wekiva, Oviedo vs Lake Howell, Evans vs Colonial, Olympia vs Windermere, Boone vs Edgewater.  I think they beat Lake Mary and get the 1 seed.  

2. Wekiva Possible 40.1-43.1 I project 43.1 District Champ

Four games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win. Wekiva vs Lake Nona, Olympia vs Windermere, West Orange vs Ocoee, Evans vs Colonial.  If Wekiva, Olympia, West Orange and Evans win they end with 43.1 if all 4 lose they end with 40.1.  I expect Wekiva to win and at least 2 of the others and most likely all 3.

3. Flagler Palm Coast Possible 41.1-42.2 I project 41.1 District Champ

Two games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win. New Smryna Beach vs Spruce Creek, Deltona vs OC University.  I think both lose.

4. Seminole Possible 37.7-39.9 I project 39.3 District Champ

Two games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win. Seminole vs Bishop Moore, Lake Mary vs Winter park.  I think they beat Bishop Moore but Lake Mary loses.

5. Apopka Possible 36.9-40.4 I project 40.4

Four games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win.  Apopka vs Oak Ridge, West Orange vs Ocoee, Evans vs Colonial and Boone vs Edgewater.  If Apopka, West Orange, Evans and Boone wins they end with 40.4 (most) if all 4 lose they end with 37.4 (least).  I expect Apopka to win and at least 2 of the others to win and maybe all 3.

6. Boone Possible 36.6-39.6 I project 39.1

Three games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win. Boone vs Edgewater, Gateway vs Mt Dora, Lake Nona vs Wekiva.  Boone vs Edgewater is a toss up but I will go with Boone.  Wekiva should beat Lake Nona and Gateway vs Mt Dora is also a toss up. 

7. Lake Mary Possible 37.5-40.5 I project 38.5

Three games important to them and the first team listed is who they need to win. Lake Mary vs Winter Park, Oviedo vs Lake Howell, Seminole vs Bishop Moore.  If Lake Mary beats Winter Park they could end at #5,6 or 7 

8. Spruce Creek Possible 35.7-37.3 I project 37.3

One game important to them.  Spruce Creek vs NSB.  I expect them to win.

 

OC University could get to 37. I project them at 36.4 they need Spruce Creek to lose to NSB

West Orange could get to 36.1.  They would need Spruce Creek to lose to NSB and OC University to lose to Deltona.

Oviedo could get to 35.5 not enough.

[1mustangW]

It looks to me that the Lake Mary vs. Winter Park game will have huge ramifications on the seeding for Region 1. If Lake Mary beats Winter Park they will jump to 40.5 with an Oveido win while APK will be at 40.4. Winter park would drop to 42.3, putting them at #2 if Wekiva wins (43.1)

You can argue the Points system has flaws but it definitely adds to the drama of week 11.

[DisabledAccount]

8 minutes ago, 1mustangW said:

It looks to me that the Lake Mary vs. Winter Park game will have huge ramifications on the seeding for Region 1. If Lake Mary beats Winter Park they will jump to 40.5 with an Oveido win while APK will be at 40.4. Winter park would drop to 42.3, putting them at #2 if Wekiva wins (43.1)

You can argue the Points system has flaws but it definitely adds to the drama of week 11.

Exactly past years people could rest starters week 11 bc it didn't matter unless you play rivarly game that week 

[DarterBlue2]

46 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Exactly past years people could rest starters week 11 bc it didn't matter unless you play rivarly game that week 

Depending on who you want to play; or who you want a key opponent to play, it may still be in your best interest to rest starters as Bad Bird has pointed out.

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Depending on who you want to play; or who you want a key opponent to play, it may still be in your best interest to rest starters as Bad Bird has pointed out.

If my team did that i would be embarrassed 

 

Luckily i know our coaches are as competitive as i am so they want to win every game we play 

[DarterBlue2]

1 minute ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

If my team did that i would be embarrassed 

 

Luckily i know our coaches are as competitive as i am so they want to win every game we play 

Columbia may not. But I can guarantee you some teams will. Relationships among coaches will also influence some late season games. Never underestimate the lure of gaming a system when the opportunity presents itself. At first I was a proponent of the new system. However, now, the more I think about it, the more I would support a modified district system. Perhaps we could mandate, in the larger classes, that each district have at least six teams. Perhaps we could only guarantee a playoff spot for the district winner in three or four team districts with a wildcard determining the other spot(s) in the region. 

The problem I am now having with the new system is that it could fast devolve into a labyrinth like our current Federal Income Tax system. That would not be a good thing!

[DisabledAccount]

18 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Columbia may not. But I can guarantee you some teams will. Relationships among coaches will also influence some late season games. Never underestimate the lure of gaming a system when the opportunity presents itself. At first I was a proponent of the new system. However, now, the more I think about it, the more I would support a modified district system. Perhaps we could mandate, in the larger classes, that each district have at least six teams. Perhaps we could only guarantee a playoff spot for the district winner in three or four team districts with a wildcard determining the other spot(s) in the region. 

The problem I am now having with the new system is that it could fast devolve into a labyrinth like our current Federal Income Tax system. That would not be a good thing!

Question is if we took points out who gets wild card spots?

[DarterBlue2]

Just now, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Question is if we took points out who gets wild card spots?

It could be based on several things. Best records in Region (for teams that did not automatically qualify) would be the simplest. 

[DisabledAccount]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

It could be based on several things. Best records in Region (for teams that did not automatically qualify) would be the simplest. 

That would be good with me i just wouldn't want selection committee because those would be prone to favoritism 

[DarterBlue2]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

That would be good with me i just wouldn't want selection committee because those would be prone to favoritism 

I agree with you. I would want something that is simple and transparent and not done behind closed doors.

I do realize that there are some advantages to this new system. However, a number of troubling things have come up as the season as played out. While I am glad Apopka is in the playoffs, it does trouble me that they lost the head to head against West Orange and finished behind them in district ... and yet ... West Orange is on the outside looking in while Apopka's playoff spot is secure barring some other teams we beat having ineligible players or some such event ... 

[STILL KRUNK]

EGGZACKLEE DarterBlue2