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OldSchoolLion

Biggest Busts in the Preseason Polls

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The following teams were all highly ranked in the polls and considered strong contenders for a state title, but ended up being busts at the end of the season(not that they were all bad teams). 

2017 Deerfield Beach(8A) - lost in first round of 8A playoffs to Western 20-17; Coral Gables(8A) - finished 4-5 and did not make playoffs

2016 Apopka(8A) - lost in first round of playoffs to Timber Creek 40-39; Miami Central(6A) - finished 6-2 and did not make playoffs

2015 Oakleaf(7A) - finished 8-2 and did not make playoffs; Lake Gibson(6A) - lost in first round of playoffs to Brandon 21-13 

2014 Dwyer(7A) - finished 7-3 and did not make playoffs; Columbia(6A) - lost in first round of playoffs to St Augustine 33-21

2013 Godby(5A) - lost in first round of playoffs to West Florida 41-40; Cypress Bay (8A) - finished 6-5 and did not make playoffs

Who will be this year's biggest busts amongst the pollsters' favorites?

https://floridahsfootball.com/2018/08/20/floridahsfootball-coms-2018-sunshine-state-top-25-rankings-for-week-1/

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On 8/21/2018 at 8:08 PM, OldSchoolLion said:

The following teams were all highly ranked in the polls and considered strong contenders for a state title, but ended up being busts at the end of the season(not that they were all bad teams). 

2017 Deerfield Beach(8A) - lost in first round of 8A playoffs to Western 20-17; Coral Gables(8A) - finished 4-5 and did not make playoffs

2016 Apopka(8A) - lost in first round of playoffs to Timber Creek 40-39; Miami Central(6A) - finished 6-2 and did not make playoffs

2015 Oakleaf(7A) - finished 8-2 and did not make playoffs; Lake Gibson(6A) - lost in first round of playoffs to Brandon 21-13 

2014 Dwyer(7A) - finished 7-3 and did not make playoffs; Columbia(6A) - lost in first round of playoffs to St Augustine 33-21

2013 Godby(5A) - lost in first round of playoffs to West Florida 41-40; Cypress Bay (8A) - finished 6-5 and did not make playoffs

Who will be this year's biggest busts amongst the pollsters' favorites?

https://floridahsfootball.com/2018/08/20/floridahsfootball-coms-2018-sunshine-state-top-25-rankings-for-week-1/

Got to say Dr Phillips

 

They were the only team in the top 10 who didn't actually look like a top 10 team at any point in the season

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2 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

My vote for biggest "busts" of the season.  

Atlantic(8A)-lost first round of playoffs

Clay(5A)-did not make playoffs and finished 4-6

I agree with those 2

 

After Atlantic beat Dwyer and Palm Beach Central to open year I thought they were heading to great things then it coughed up in first round

 

Clay, man idk why they were ranked in first place 

 

Yes they usually have a tendency to make deep runs (granted in a average to weak region) 

 

No rankings are perfect though so I can't fault Josh too much for taking a gamble on Clay but it does look like a bad one in hindsight

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1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Got to say Dr Phillips

 

They were the only team in the top 10 who didn't actually look like a top 10 team at any point in the season

But they made it to the third round regional final). It is hard to say a third round team was a bust. Apopka beat them handily and exited sooner. Oh DP, Oh DP ...

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Just now, DarterBlue2 said:

But they made it to the third round regional final). It is hard to say a third round team was a bust. Apopka beat them handily and exited sooner. Oh DP, Oh DP ...

And based on what I heard, they were a young team, so I think they finished respectably.  As we all know, sometimes teams are ranked based on reputation, and putting them that high to begin the season may have been unrealistic.

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Just now, OldSchoolLion said:

And based on what I heard, they were a young team, so I think they finished respectably.  As we all know, sometimes teams are ranked based on reputation, and putting them that high to begin the season may have been unrealistic.

They were young, mostly juniors and sophomore starters with a sprinkling of freshmen in there, too. If the team remains intact, they will be very good in 2019. 

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It's funny, we all want preseason polls, because it gives us something to talk about.   But if we're really being intellectually honest with ourselves, we'd agree that it doesn't make sense to start doing a poll until 4 or 5 games into a season.  

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25 minutes ago, Perspective said:

It's funny, we all want preseason polls, because it gives us something to talk about.   But if we're really being intellectually honest with ourselves, we'd agree that it doesn't make sense to start doing a poll until 4 or 5 games into a season.  

Oh I agree

 

But it's always interesting to see where people think teams line up post off season and see how close they are come end of season

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1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

But they made it to the third round regional final). It is hard to say a third round team was a bust. Apopka beat them handily and exited sooner. Oh DP, Oh DP ...

They looked better at end of the year but honestly darter they didn't look top 10 at any point in the season

 

Had they been around 20s or 30s they would be very close to where they were by end of season

 

 

All I'm saying is they were only ones who didn't look like a top 10 team at any point of season, the remaining top 10 teams at least showed at some point in the season they belonged at that ranking (whether beginning or end of season)

 

 

I would make similar argument for immokalee who also never looked at the level they were ranked

 

They would be my second choice for biggest bust

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1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

And based on what I heard, they were a young team, so I think they finished respectably.  As we all know, sometimes teams are ranked based on reputation, and putting them that high to begin the season may have been unrealistic.

Usually it's easier to rank based on reputation because some teams always seem to consistency produce and are safer picks than a team coming out of nowhere

 

When I rank I try to look for a balance when it comes to preseason polls but once games start being played I shift focus away from talent and other stuff on paper and shift towards on the field results as primary force behind ranking

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1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

They were young, mostly juniors and sophomore starters with a sprinkling of freshmen in there, too. If the team remains intact, they will be very good in 2019. 

They may be very good in 2019 and I like Dr Phillips and have no issues or ax to grind with them

 

I'm only being honest with the question, when it comes to busts there was 1 team who on the field results over the course of the season stand out in that top 10

 

I get why Dr Phillips started in top 10 (defending 8a champs) but it probably was a bit high to start the year because of how much they lost and how young they were overall

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2 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I get why Dr Phillips started in top 10 (defending 8a champs) but it probably was a bit high to start the year because of how much they lost and how young they were overall

They benefited from reputation earned the prior two years. 

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2 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

They benefited from reputation earned the prior two years. 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1U7jfKu0rn1Q86nduskEqtV6B1uAmKbnOXL4SSIMSYoA/edit?usp=drivesdk

 

I had them at 8 to start year so I can't exactly blame Josh for having them top 10 when I made same choice

 

 

And they were likely top 10 previous 2 years but just had a rough year this year

 

I agree with them likely being back to good next year

 

Another team I expect to bounce back is St Augustine

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In the past, preseason polls seemed to be based largely on a combination of the following:  past performance (over a period of time and, perhaps more importantly,  the prior year's record), the head coach, the returning/incoming QB and, on occasion,  a 4 or 5 star player on a particular team.   Prognosticators have a tougher job now, as they have to factor in players lost and players gained via the transfer process for each team and every team that team will be playing. 

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