TBT should not be travelling this week

[Perspective]

I never really thought I'd be coming to the defense of Tampa Bay Tech, yet here I am. 

Based on Florida's version of the MaxPrep rankings, here are the seedings for the Class 3M, Region 1 playoffs (with state ranking for class 3M in parentheses):

1.  Edgewater (#1) - winner of District 3

2. Jones (3) - runner-up in District 3

3.  Oviedo (6) - winner of District 2

4.  Fletcher (10) - Winner of District 1

5. TBT (11) - Winner of District 4

6. Wharton (12) - Runner up in District 4

7.  Wekiva (16) - finished 3rd in District 3

8.  First Coast (19) - finished 3rd in District 1

 

As a result of these standings, and based on MaxPrep's use of the state's formula, TBT must make the three and a half hour trip to Fletcher for a Saturday night game, while a district runner-up (Jones) gets to host a first round playoff game.  But, this particular post is not about whether district winners should automatically host first round games (they should); instead, it's about which one of the two district winners, TBT or Fletcher, should be making the trip to play their first round game.  And, as fate would have it, TBT is traveling to Fletcher, instead of vice versa, because the state power rankings somehow have Fletcher a notch ahead of TBT in the state 3M rankings. 

Now, lets look at how those same schools are ranked in Class 3M using the 'regular' MaxPreps power ranking system (listing only the Region 1 teams):

2. Edgewater

3.  Jones

6.  TBT

9.  Wharton

11.  Oviedo

12.  Wekiva

14.  Fletcher

22.  First Coast

 

I said at the beginning of the year that 3M District 4 could be one of the toughest districts in the state (for all classes).   Turns out that District 3 (with Edgewater and Jones) may have been even tougher.  But even with Armwood having a relatively down year, District 4 was still a very tough district.  TBT went undefeated in the district, knocking off both Wharton and Armwood.  They finished the season with two losses:  a last minute loss at Jesuit (when a blocked punt led to Jesuit TD in the final minute of the game) and a forfeit loss (as I understand it, for dressing out an ineligible player) to Gaither after beating them decisively on the field. 

So, here's my question:  how can the state rankings be so dramatically different than the national rankings?  And clearly the difference matters.  Under the state formula, Fletcher is ranked one spot higher than TBT, but under the national formula, TBT is ranked 8 spots higher in 3M and 61 spots better in the overall state ranking (where TBT is 22 and Fletcher is 83 . . . one spot behind Armwood).  Yeah, they both made the playoffs, but one of the two teams has to travel almost 4 hours and from my perspective, it's the better team that's doing the traveling.  

Has anyone at the FHSAA offered any insight as to why the state formula is different?   Yeah, I know there's been some discussion that the state formula does not take margin of victory into consideration.   Maybe it should. 

 

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

I never really thought I'd be coming to the defense of Tampa Bay Tech, yet here I am. 

Based on Florida's version of the MaxPrep rankings, here are the seedings for the Class 3M, Region 1 playoffs (with state ranking for class 3M in parentheses):

1.  Edgewater (#1) - winner of District 3

2. Jones (3) - runner-up in District 3

3.  Oviedo (6) - winner of District 2

4.  Fletcher (10) - Winner of District 1

5. TBT (11) - Winner of District 4

6. Wharton (12) - Runner up in District 4

7.  Wekiva (16) - finished 3rd in District 3

8.  First Coast (19) - finished 3rd in District 1

 

As a result of these standings, and based on MaxPrep's use of the state's formula, TBT must make the three and a half hour trip to Fletcher for a Saturday night game, while a district runner-up (Jones) gets to host a first round playoff game.  But, this particular post is not about whether district winners should automatically host first round games (they should); instead, it's about which one of the two district winners, TBT or Fletcher, should be making the trip to play their first round game.  And, as fate would have it, TBT is traveling to Fletcher, instead of vice versa, because the state power rankings somehow have Fletcher a notch ahead of TBT in the state 3M rankings. 

Now, lets look at how those same schools are ranked in Class 3M using the 'regular' MaxPreps power ranking system (listing only the Region 1 teams):

2. Edgewater

3.  Jones

6.  TBT

9.  Wharton

11.  Oviedo

12.  Wekiva

14.  Fletcher

22.  First Coast

 

I said at the beginning of the year that 3M District 4 could be one of the toughest districts in the state (for all classes).   Turns out that District 3 (with Edgewater and Jones) may have been even tougher.  But even with Armwood having a relatively down year, District 4 was still a very tough district.  TBT went undefeated in the district, knocking off both Wharton and Armwood.  They finished the season with two losses:  a last minute loss at Jesuit (when a blocked punt led to Jesuit TD in the final minute of the game) and a forfeit loss (as I understand it, for dressing out an ineligible player) to Gaither after beating them decisively on the field. 

So, here's my question:  how can the state rankings be so dramatically different than the national rankings?  And clearly the difference matters.  Under the state formula, Fletcher is ranked one spot higher than TBT, but under the national formula, TBT is ranked 8 spots higher in 3M and 61 spots better in the overall state ranking (where TBT is 22 and Fletcher is 83 . . . one spot behind Armwood).  Yeah, they both made the playoffs, but one of the two teams has to travel almost 4 hours and from my perspective, it's the better team that's doing the traveling.  

Has anyone at the FHSAA offered any insight as to why the state formula is different?   Yeah, I know there's been some discussion that the state formula does not take margin of victory into consideration.   Maybe it should. 

 

I also think the FHSAA formula lowered the value of SOS in their version without telling anyone because again if we don't know the MaxPreps formula we have no way to truly double check it 

[Dr. D]

I don't know the answer to your question, and no one else does either.  Yes, the MaxPreps apologists on here can offer a hypothesis, but they are stabbing in the dark if they don't know the formula.  What I can tell you is that I have so far analyzed how 43 states select and seed team for their high school football playoffs.  Of those who use a "ranking" system, the majority use an RPI or homegrown points system, as opposed to MaxPreps.  The stated reason is often that of TRANSPARENCY in the RPI or homegrown points system.  That is of no consolation to TBT, but outcomes like this are what we will continue to get with the Florida-MaxPreps hybrid.

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

I don't know the answer to your question, and no one else does either.  Yes, the MaxPreps apologists on here can offer a hypothesis, but they are stabbing in the dark if they don't know the formula.  What I can tell you is that I have so far analyzed how 43 states select and seed team for their high school football playoffs.  Of those who use a "ranking" system, the majority use an RPI or homegrown points system, as opposed to MaxPreps.  The stated reason is often that of TRANSPARENCY in the RPI or homegrown points system.  That is of no consolation to TBT, but outcomes like this are what we will continue to get with the Florida-MaxPreps hybrid.

If they used the actual MaxPreps formula it probably wouldn't be as bad

 

This system is basically record rankings as any undefeated team has a serious edge over anyone with a loss regardless of SOS if it's not like -10 SOS

[181pl]

I don’t think TBT loses to Fletcher regardless. They can compete with anyone in the class other than STA. 

TBT does get some weird results. Should have probably lost to Plant despite being better than Plant. Probably should have competed much better with Jesuit, who is nowhere as good as last year. Armwood game was controversially decided. Yet they dominated and shut out a very good Wharton team. 

[KeemD321]

4 hours ago, 181pl said:

I don’t think TBT loses to Fletcher regardless. They can compete with anyone in the class other than STA. 

TBT does get some weird results. Should have probably lost to Plant despite being better than Plant. Probably should have competed much better with Jesuit, who is nowhere as good as last year. Armwood game was controversially decided. Yet they dominated and shut out a very good Wharton team. 

For some reason I have a feeling Tech is gonna get upset 

[181pl]

tech up 27-3

[KeemD321]

36 minutes ago, 181pl said:

tech up 27-3

Tech is definitely doing their thing. The next rounds will be a tough stretch. 

[Perspective]

TBT won 34-3.  
So, I don’t think I was wrong.  

[Ray Icaza]

16 minutes ago, Perspective said:

TBT won 34-3.  
So, I don’t think I was wrong.  

No you weren't, but if you check out the brackets for the region Venice is competing in, the other 3 games were all won by the lower seed.  Not sure what to make of that except ..................................................

[Perspective]

15 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

No you weren't, but if you check out the brackets for the region Venice is competing in, the other 3 games were all won by the lower seed.  Not sure what to make of that except ..................................................

. . .  except the bastardized MaxPreps system used in Florida isn't very accurate.