Promotion and Relegation

[gatorman-uf]

So I will continue to beat the drum for promotion and relegation, simply as a way to increase participation in the sport. Nobody (good teams or bad) want to play teams that they are overmatched with. My belief is that a promotion and relegation system allows recently good teams to play other recently good teams in the regular season and recently bad teams to play recently bad teams. Thus encouraging competitive games, rather than blowouts.

No, it doesn't solve the transfer issue, but unless the state legislature changes, that issue isn't going to stop. Additionally, I think the expectation of being able to transfer for any reason has made it's way to the college level (transfer portal), so high schools on some level are just mirroring that (for better or worse). Sadly, I don't think we are ever going back to the days of transfers sitting out for a year.

Do I think it will make the transfer issue worse? It might, but as a coach, I would be more frustrated losing a player to a school in my classification than losing that player to a "better" school where I will most likely never play that player again. I just think the sting will hurt less (not that it won't exist).

______________________ 

So my basic premise:
1A stays as is, mostly because it has proven highly success for those schools.
If you have not had a football program since 2018, you start at the lowest level (no matter the size of your school).
This leaves 449 schools to play in my 6 classifications. Classification 2A and 3A will NOT play to a state championship, but only to a Northern/Southern championship, so that nobody accuses them of winning a state championship equal to that of the top classifications.
7A - 32 Schools (All teams make playoffs, required to play 7 other 7A schools)
6A - 32 Schools (All teams make playoffs, required to play 7 other 6A schools)
5A - 64 Schools (8 districts, 8 teams per district, top 4 district records make playoffs (similar to Georgia)
4A - 64 Schools (8 districts, 8 teams per district, top 4 district records make playoffs (similar to Georgia)
3A - 128 Schools (16 districts, 8 teams per district, top 2 district records make playoffs (similar to old system)
2A - 129 Schools (16 districts, 8 teams per district, top 2 district records make playoffs (similar to old system)
1A - Same as Previous

Classifications are based on the average 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 MaxPreps ratings (I did not use 2020 due to pandemic weirdness)
7A

1. American Heritage (Plantation)
2. Apopka
3. Armwood (Seffner)
4. Bartram Trail (St. Johns)
5. Bolles (Jacksonville)
6. Booker T. Washington (Miami)
7. Cardinal Gibbons (Fort Lauderdale)
8. Central (Miami)
9. Chaminade-Madonna (Hollywood)
10. Clearwater Central Catholic (Clearwater)
11. Cocoa
12. Columbus (Miami)
13. Dillard (Fort Lauderdale)
14. Edgewater (Orlando)
15. Florida State University High School (Tallahassee)
16. Jesuit (Tampa)
17. Jones (Orlando)
18. Lakeland
19. Naples
20. Northwestern (Miami)
21. Osceola (Kissimmee)
22. Palmetto (Miami)
23. Riverview Sarasota (Sarasota)
24. Rockledge
25. Seminole (Sanford)
26. St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale)
27. Tampa Bay Tech (Tampa)
28. Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie)
29. Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville)
30. Venice
31. Vero Beach
32. West Orange (Winter Garden)

6A

1. Atlantic (Delray Beach)
2. Berkeley Prep (Tampa)
3. Buchholz (Gainesville)
4. Carol City (Miami)
5. Columbia (Lake City)
6. Crestview
7. Deerfield Beach
8. Dr. Phillips (Orlando)
9. Escambia (Pensacola)
10. Flagler Palm Coast (Palm Coast)
11. Gulliver Prep (Miami)
12. Lake Gibson (Lakeland)
13. Lake Mary
14. Lake Wales
15. Lakewood (St. Petersburg)
16. Lincoln (Tallahassee)
17. Mainland (Daytona Beach)
18. Mandarin (Jacksonville)
19. Miramar
20. Niceville
21. Norland (Miami)
22. Palm Beach Central (Wellington)
23. Palmetto
24. Pine Forest (Pensacola)
25. Plantation
26. Raines (Jacksonville)
27. Riverside (Jacksonville)
28. Vanguard (Ocala)
29. Wakulla (Crawfordville)
30. Wekiva (Apopka)
31. Western (Davie)
32. Winter Park

[gatorman-uf]

Honestly, I look at the 7A classification and I am excited for every round of playoffs. Sure, some teams are probably a little overmatched, and might not be able to sustain that level of success for another 5 years, but who cares, if they struggle, they will move down and a rising team will take their place.
 

I look at 6A and I don't see a clear favorite at all, which is what you want. You want teams believing that anybody can win, it encourages people to be participatory, because there is a belief that they might be the next champion versus knowing that they have to play the traditional powerhouse who always wins.

[badbird]

I love it but it will never happen.

[gatorman-uf]

Classifcation 5A

District 1

1. Chiles (Tallahassee)
2. Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach)
3. Godby (Tampa)
4. Gulf Breeze
5. Mosley (Lynn Haven)
6. Navarre
7. Pensacola Catholic (Pensacola)
8. West Florida (Pensacola)

District 2

1. Creekside (St. Johns)
2. Fleming Island (Orange Park)
3. Fletcher (Neptune Beach)
4. Oakleaf (Orange Park)
5. Ponte Vedra
6. Saint Augustine
7. Sandalwood (Jacksonville)
8. University Christian (Jacksonville)

District 3

1. Baker County (Glen St. Mary)
2. DeLand
3. Dunnellon
4. Lake Minneola (Minneola)
5. North Marion (Citra)
6. South Sumter (Bushnell)
7. Spruce Creek (Port Orange)
8. Trinity Catholic (Ocala)

District 4

1. Eau Gallie (Melbourne)
2. Heritage (Palm Bay)
3. Melbourne
4. Merritt Island
5. Oviedo
6. Sebring
7. Timber Creek (Orlando)
8. Viera

District 5

1. Bishop Moore (Orlando)
2. Bloomingdale (Valrico)
3. Boone (Orlando)
4. Lake Brantley (Altamonte Springs)
5. Newsome (Lithia)
6. Ocoee
7. Orlando Christian Prep (Orlando)
8. Plant City

District 6

1. Calvary Christian (Clearwater)
2. Gaither (Tampa)
3. Hillsborough (Tampa)
4. Largo
5. Pinellas Park (Largo)
6. Plant (Tampa)
7. Steinbrenner (Lutz)
8. Tampa Catholic (Tampa)

District 7

1. Bishop Verot (Fort Myers)
2. Braden River (Bradenton)
3. Charlotte (Punta Gorga)
4. Dunbar (Fort Myers)
5. Fort Myers
6. Lehigh (Lehigh Acres)
7. Manatee (Bradenton)
8. Port Charlotte

District 8

1. Benjamin (Palm Beach Gardens)
2. Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach)
3. Centennial (Port St. Lucie)
4. Edison (Miami)
5. Homestead
6. Killian (Miami)
7. South Dade (Homestead)
8. Southridge (Miami)
    

[gatorman-uf]

58 minutes ago, badbird said:

I love it but it will never happen.

You are probably right, but unless somebody keeps throwing the idea out there for coaches/ADs/fans/FHSAA to at least discuss and think about, then we are stuck with the same system.

[gatorman-uf]

Last one for the day, I look at this classification and I don't see any guaranteed state champions. Heck, I am not even sure I know the 4 teams that make it out of some of these districts to make the playoffs. If you are a coach or player of one of these 64 teams, doesn't that give you a little extra motivation. You have realistic shot of competing for a state championship in comparison to when you are in other classifications that always seem to have 5-6 teams who will be penciled into the regional finals automatically. 

Class 4A

District 1

1. Baldwin
2. Booker T. Washington (Pensacola)
3. Bradford (Starke)
4. Milton
5. North Florida Christian (Tallahassee)
6. Pace
7. Rickards (Tallahassee)
8. Suwannee (Live Oak)

District 2

1. Bishop Kenny (Jacksonville)
2. ED White (Jacksonville)
3. Evans (Orlando)
4. First Coast (Jacksonville)
5. Hagerty (Oviedo)
6. Nease (Ponte Vedra)
7. Ribault (Jacksonville)
8. University (Orange City)

District 3

1. Auburndale
2. Durant (Plant City)
3. Lakeland Christian (Lakeland)
4. Nature Coast Tech (Brooksville)
5. The Villages Charter (The Villages)
6. Victory Christian Academy (Lakeland)
7. Winter Haven
8. Zephyrhills

District 4

1. Chamberlain (Tampa)
2. Clearwater
3. East Bay (Gibsonton)
4. East Lake (Tarpon Springs)
5. Mitchell (New Port Richey)
6. Sarasota
7. Wharton (Tampa)
8. Wiregrass Ranch (Wesley Chapel)

District 5

1. Dwyer (Palm Beach Gardens)
2. Harmony
3. Jensen Beach
4. John Carroll Catholic (Fort Pierce)
5. Lake Nona (Orlando)
6. Martin County (Stuart)
7. Palm Bay (Melbourne)
8. Palm Beach Gardens

District 6

1. Barron Collier (Naples)
2. First Baptist Academy (Naples)
3. Glades Central (Belle Glade)
4. Gulf Coast (Naples)
5. King's Academy (West Palm Beach)
6. North Fort Myers
7. Palm Beach Lakes (West Palm Beach)
8. Wellington

District 7

1. American Heritage (Delray Beach)
2. Blanche Ely (Pompano Beach)
3. Boca Raton
4. Calvary Christian Academy (Fort Lauderdale)
5. Coconut Creek
6. Fort Lauderdale
7. Monarch (Coconut Creek)
8. Stoneman Douglas (Parkland)

District 8

1. Belen Jesuit (Miami)
2. Doral Academy (Doral)
3. Jackson (Miami)
4. McArthur (Hollywood)
5. Monsignor Pace (Miami)
6. North Miami
7. North Miami Beach
8. Stranahan (Fort Lauderdale)
    

[Dr. D]

Appreciate the thoughtful approach to this subject.  Several observations:  Love the playoff qualification process for 5A and 4A (good-bye computer algorithms!).  Okay with the playoff qualification process for 3A and 2A (7 head-to-head games should identify the two most deserving teams per district).  Disagree that 1A/1R should be retained as currently stands; pretty conclusive that these teams can easily complete with 1S and probably 1M (roll them in to 3A/2A and eliminate one class).  Several questions:  What interval would you propose to reclassify?  I would think every 2 years to account for the home-and-away cycle for district and non-district games.  Any idea on how to seed 7A and 6A playoffs?  Due to potential travel concerns, maybe regional pods of 8, based on geography. 

The only state that I have found that uses any type of promotion/relegation based on competitive performance is Alabama.  Only private schools are promoted or relegated based on performance over a 2-year period, so they obviously have a different set of issues. 

Again, although the fundamental concept may not be viable (unfortunately), there are lots of good principles that can be applied to improving the system.  Keep challenging the status quo!

[gatorman-uf]

1 hour ago, Dr. D said:

Appreciate the thoughtful approach to this subject.  Several observations:  Love the playoff qualification process for 5A and 4A (good-bye computer algorithms!).  Okay with the playoff qualification process for 3A and 2A (7 head-to-head games should identify the two most deserving teams per district).  Disagree that 1A/1R should be retained as currently stands; pretty conclusive that these teams can easily complete with 1S and probably 1M (roll them in to 3A/2A and eliminate one class).  Several questions:  What interval would you propose to reclassify?  I would think every 2 years to account for the home-and-away cycle for district and non-district games.  Any idea on how to seed 7A and 6A playoffs?  Due to potential travel concerns, maybe regional pods of 8, based on geography. 

The only state that I have found that uses any type of promotion/relegation based on competitive performance is Alabama.  Only private schools are promoted or relegated based on performance over a 2-year period, so they obviously have a different set of issues. 

Again, although the fundamental concept may not be viable (unfortunately), there are lots of good principles that can be applied to improving the system.  Keep challenging the status quo!

As for playoffs/seedings for 7A, 6A, and 1A/R, I am fine with the previous RPI (which was transparent) or even the current MaxPreps rankings (they are not transparent, but have a level of trust, and are what we are basing promotions/relegations on). I know that means different ways for getting into playoffs, but I think that is responding to the needs of the system.

Cycles would be 2 years for football (and 1 year for non-football team sports as turnover happens quicker in those sports).
For rural, I think the biggest success has been from the communities themselves and not just in football, but all team sports. In 2009, Franklin County Boys Basketball had a once in a lifetime team and ran into the buzzsaw known as Arlington Country Day. I like to think that the rural classification would benefited a team like that instead of the Madison County's of the world.

But to go with your point based on same thing that classified other programs:
Madison County would be in 7A (just barely)
Hawthorne and Pahokee in 5A,
Chiefland and Blountstown in 4A
12 teams would be in 3A
19 teams would be in 2A

And probably a lot of these rural schools would be willing to play other schools like themselves in ability rather than just common community characteristics. If I was FHSAA, I would probably want to hear that the majority of the rural schools wanted it, before I disbanded it.

The reason why I didn't do geography based for 7A and 6A was because we want the best 2 to be in the finals. If those two are Miami Northwestern (All Bout 'Da West) and Miami Central, so be it. I would also assume if you are making into 7A or 6A, that your school and community have invested into your program for a couple of games. I would also think the gates would be bigger with quality opponents.

_____________ 
As for promotion/relegation itself, this would be based on the 4 year averages of MaxPreps
7A: send 4 down to 6A
6A: send 4 down to 5A, send 4 up to 7A
5A: send 8 down to 4A, send 4 up to 6A
4A: send 8 down to 3A, send 8 up to 5A
3A: send 16 down to 2A, send 8 up to 4A
2A: send 16 up to 3A
_____________ 

[Coach]

I think an idea like this needs to happen. I agree that basing districts solely on proximity to schools and having similar populations of students on campus is antiquated and, honestly, stupid at this point. There are Rural/1S/1M teams that have bigger and more competent rosters than some 4M teams. You look around and see these ridiculous district pairings because of this model and it's laughable.

I appreciate the work/time/thought you put into this. I hope somebody up in the FHSAA offices can look at something similar. May help them solve the Independent teams too as a lot of teams have or are dropping out of Districts this year because they want to be able to compete. While making sure the best teams play the best is important, we also have to make sure the "have-nots" have a reason to play and build their programs in order to move into the more competitive classes. 

[Nulli Secundus]

22 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

So I will continue to beat the drum for promotion and relegation, simply as a way to increase participation in the sport. Nobody (good teams or bad) want to play teams that they are overmatched with. My belief is that a promotion and relegation system allows recently good teams to play other recently good teams in the regular season and recently bad teams to play recently bad teams. Thus encouraging competitive games, rather than blowouts.

No, it doesn't solve the transfer issue, but unless the state legislature changes, that issue isn't going to stop. Additionally, I think the expectation of being able to transfer for any reason has made it's way to the college level (transfer portal), so high schools on some level are just mirroring that (for better or worse). Sadly, I don't think we are ever going back to the days of transfers sitting out for a year.

Do I think it will make the transfer issue worse? It might, but as a coach, I would be more frustrated losing a player to a school in my classification than losing that player to a "better" school where I will most likely never play that player again. I just think the sting will hurt less (not that it won't exist).

______________________ 

So my basic premise:
1A stays as is, mostly because it has proven highly success for those schools.
If you have not had a football program since 2018, you start at the lowest level (no matter the size of your school).
This leaves 449 schools to play in my 6 classifications. Classification 2A and 3A will NOT play to a state championship, but only to a Northern/Southern championship, so that nobody accuses them of winning a state championship equal to that of the top classifications.
7A - 32 Schools (All teams make playoffs, required to play 7 other 7A schools)
6A - 32 Schools (All teams make playoffs, required to play 7 other 6A schools)
5A - 64 Schools (8 districts, 8 teams per district, top 4 district records make playoffs (similar to Georgia)
4A - 64 Schools (8 districts, 8 teams per district, top 4 district records make playoffs (similar to Georgia)
3A - 128 Schools (16 districts, 8 teams per district, top 2 district records make playoffs (similar to old system)
2A - 129 Schools (16 districts, 8 teams per district, top 2 district records make playoffs (similar to old system)
1A - Same as Previous

Classifications are based on the average 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 MaxPreps ratings (I did not use 2020 due to pandemic weirdness)
7A

1. American Heritage (Plantation)
2. Apopka
3. Armwood (Seffner)
4. Bartram Trail (St. Johns)
5. Bolles (Jacksonville)
6. Booker T. Washington (Miami)
7. Cardinal Gibbons (Fort Lauderdale)
8. Central (Miami)
9. Chaminade-Madonna (Hollywood)
10. Clearwater Central Catholic (Clearwater)
11. Cocoa
12. Columbus (Miami)
13. Dillard (Fort Lauderdale)
14. Edgewater (Orlando)
15. Florida State University High School (Tallahassee)
16. Jesuit (Tampa)
17. Jones (Orlando)
18. Lakeland
19. Naples
20. Northwestern (Miami)
21. Osceola (Kissimmee)
22. Palmetto (Miami)
23. Riverview Sarasota (Sarasota)
24. Rockledge
25. Seminole (Sanford)
26. St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale)
27. Tampa Bay Tech (Tampa)
28. Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie)
29. Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville)
30. Venice
31. Vero Beach
32. West Orange (Winter Garden)

6A

1. Atlantic (Delray Beach)
2. Berkeley Prep (Tampa)
3. Buchholz (Gainesville)
4. Carol City (Miami)
5. Columbia (Lake City)
6. Crestview
7. Deerfield Beach
8. Dr. Phillips (Orlando)
9. Escambia (Pensacola)
10. Flagler Palm Coast (Palm Coast)
11. Gulliver Prep (Miami)
12. Lake Gibson (Lakeland)
13. Lake Mary
14. Lake Wales
15. Lakewood (St. Petersburg)
16. Lincoln (Tallahassee)
17. Mainland (Daytona Beach)
18. Mandarin (Jacksonville)
19. Miramar
20. Niceville
21. Norland (Miami)
22. Palm Beach Central (Wellington)
23. Palmetto
24. Pine Forest (Pensacola)
25. Plantation
26. Raines (Jacksonville)
27. Riverside (Jacksonville)
28. Vanguard (Ocala)
29. Wakulla (Crawfordville)
30. Wekiva (Apopka)
31. Western (Davie)
32. Winter Park

You already know I'm a fan of your plan and I said so close to a year ago in another thread of similar name promotion/relegation.  I do have one question.  When you proposed this last year, your plan had 6 classes.  Now you have 7 classes.  What prompted the change?

[gatorman-uf]

9 hours ago, Nulli Secundus said:

You already know I'm a fan of your plan and I said so close to a year ago in another thread of similar name promotion/relegation.  I do have one question.  When you proposed this last year, your plan had 6 classes.  Now you have 7 classes.  What prompted the change?

I tried to figure out a way to do it over 5 years rather than just to rip the band aid (so for a Trinity Christian isn't immediately thrown in with the highest level teams, but rather works it way up over 5 years). The reality was that it just didn't work.
Additionally, I needed to make the (6A) 2nd level down smaller. While the 32 for the top class gave us a full playoff and I think most people realize those are all really good teams and the gap between them while MaxPreps rating wise is large that the gap isn't that large on the field. The next 32 the gap is pretty small, but when you start getting to the next 33-64 the gap starts gets bigger, so it made more sense to shrink 6A down to 32 which then put other numbers into question.

I would say if that if I was forced to add Rural and the independents into the Pyramid (I would lose a class 1A, but regain it in terms of numbers).

Also the numbers just worked out cleaner with 32-32-64-64-128-128 then my previous numbers. There is a nice symmetry to it. 

[Nulli Secundus]

1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

I tried to figure out a way to do it over 5 years rather than just to rip the band aid (so for a Trinity Christian isn't immediately thrown in with the highest level teams, but rather works it way up over 5 years). The reality was that it just didn't work.
Additionally, I needed to make the (6A) 2nd level down smaller. While the 32 for the top class gave us a full playoff and I think most people realize those are all really good teams and the gap between them while MaxPreps rating wise is large that the gap isn't that large on the field. The next 32 the gap is pretty small, but when you start getting to the next 33-64 the gap starts gets bigger, so it made more sense to shrink 6A down to 32 which then put other numbers into question.

I would say if that if I was forced to add Rural and the independents into the Pyramid (I would lose a class 1A, but regain it in terms of numbers).

Also the numbers just worked out cleaner with 32-32-64-64-128-128 then my previous numbers. There is a nice symmetry to it. 

Thank you for the explanation.  I greatly appreciate the breakdown and making it simple to understand.