Florida HS's Outgunned on National Stage

[BrowardHandicapper]

8 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

...might want to be a bit careful with the statement about football"up north."  I am a Florida native, so am not being defensive because I am a Yankee  But some of my friends from Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, etc would likely beg to differ. Most folks know about Ohio  hs football, but even Indiana will pull 20-25,000 to a single state title game.   

Some of those Florida transplants could probably be big fans, but am not sure how well coaches and administration reach out to their local communities and draw them in to become supporters.  I wonder how many of the teams that won state titles this year had some sort of community event to celebrate their achievement?

There is another issue I'll put on the table that may affect participation/support levels-demographics.  This is a touchy one.  I recently saw a presentation of the top 25 players in south Florida in 2018.  Every single player appeared to be Black.  In Dade/Broward/Palm Beach counties, I believe the Black population is around 15%, so a disproportionate number of the top players are Black. 

Where I lived in Georgia, the population was about 50%White/50%Black.  And the team rosters often mirrored that.  In south Florida, we have some predominantly White/Latin schools whose teams are mostly Black.  As I said, this is touchy, but it is reality.   A long time ago, the NBA lost a big following when the league became increasingly dominated by Black players. Certain fans had problems relating to the game.  I can see the same phenomenon occurring in areas where team rosters do not mirror the demographics.

I am not saying it is right or wrong.  It is what it is.  Some people are naturally uncomfortable being in the minority, be it a player or a fan.

  Over the last few years, I have seen several graduations at  public Broward High Schools.  15% of seems rather low but that may be because a lot of the White population is a little older generation and in other parts of Broward versus where I live so to speak...  From my experience travelling around different parts of Broward, I would say it is about a 3 way divide. 33% W, B, H if I had to guess....Depends what part of Broward I am in.

 

[Zoe Boy]

22 hours ago, 954gator said:

 

Where you found this at

[Zoe Boy]

17 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

In addition to the AZ losses, the losses by Bartram Trail and Deerfield Beach were surprising for me.  At least for part of the season, those were considered two of our best larger (7A-8A) schools.  BT got beaten by a  much smaller, public school that did not make it past the second round of their playoffs.  I listened to a broadcast of the Deerfield game on line and it was worse than the score.  DB got destroyed by a much smaller, all boys school that finished with a good, but not stellar record.

From a team perspective, Florida is lacking depth.  Think about it, our second best 7A school could not even beat a "B-" team in Georgia  With as much talent as we have in Florida, I would expect the #2 7A school to be able to compete on a national level.   

   

I mean I know Bartram Trail was “second best” 7A team but honestly they were not the second best team in 7A... Tells you a lot about 7A North....

[FloTech]

15 hours ago, BrowardHandicapper said:

  Over the last few years, I have seen several graduations at  public Broward High Schools.  15% of seems rather low but that may be because a lot of the White population is a little older generation and in other parts of Broward versus where I live so to speak...  From my experience travelling around different parts of Broward, I would say it is about a 3 way divide. 33% W, B, H if I had to guess....Depends what part of Broward I am in.

 

Broward County is very diverse but the part my family live on is St Andrew's rd which alot of blacks live in that area

[954gator]

19 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

In addition to the AZ losses, the losses by Bartram Trail and Deerfield Beach were surprising for me.  At least for part of the season, those were considered two of our best larger (7A-8A) schools.  BT got beaten by a  much smaller, public school that did not make it past the second round of their playoffs.  I listened to a broadcast of the Deerfield game on line and it was worse than the score.  DB got destroyed by a much smaller, all boys school that finished with a good, but not stellar record.

From a team perspective, Florida is lacking depth.  Think about it, our second best 7A school could not even beat a "B-" team in Georgia  With as much talent as we have in Florida, I would expect the #2 7A school to be able to compete on a national level.   

   

Cartersville was a nationally ranked defending champ with a top qb in the nation.  They were upset in the playoffs, but that isn't a bad loss.  Playing in GA is about as hard as it gets.   Neither Bartram Trail nor DFB is a team that regularly goes OOS.  DFB was just basically stopping by college campuses all week prior to the game and not focused at all on the actual game.   St. Joes Regional has been doing OOS for a while and has infinitely more resources than DFB.    Neither was an even matchup at all.   

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, Zoe Boy said:

I mean I know Bartram Trail was “second best” 7A team but honestly they were not the second best team in 7A... Tells you a lot about 7A North....

As soon as Columbia and Lee both fell in 1st round i knew they would make final 4 easily 

 

Then the best and second best team in region 2 blew their games and let plant make it 

 

I don't think bartram could have beaten viera or lakeland 

[954gator]

2 hours ago, Zoe Boy said:

Where you found this at

Haha found it a while back on youtube and figured it give some perspective.  Thought it was funny.

[DisabledAccount]

1 minute ago, 954gator said:

Cartersville was a nationally ranked defending champ with a top qb in the nation.  They were upset in the playoffs, but that isn't a bad loss.  Playing in GA is about as hard as it gets.   Neither Bartram Trail nor DFB is a team that regularly goes OOS.  DFB was just basically stopping by college campuses all week prior to the game and not focused at all on the actual game.   St. Joes Regional has been doing OOS for a while and has infinitely more resources than DFB.    Neither was an even matchup at all.   

One thing though is GA rarely plays Even matchups with FL 

 

I could think of 10-15 teams who were better matchups for Cartersville then bartram trail 

[954gator]

@OldSchoolLion

Also you have to remember it's always the Fl teams traveling.   do me a favor and when you have time try and find and watch these couple examples if you can find them and tell me what you think.

Central vs Stephenson

Central vs Hoover

Central vs Grayson

basically Central was 5x better than the top two teams and just barely able to escape.  Obviously when you're in that environment with a team at the same level they get worked like in the Grayson game.  Shoot watch the STA vs Centennial game.   Flags on every play and no calls on the other side.

[954gator]

Only one I can find right now is the Hoover game, but playing at Ga is basically the same....maybe worse.

[954gator]

Stephenson game was really really bad.  

[OldSchoolLion]

2 hours ago, 954gator said:

@OldSchoolLion

Also you have to remember it's always the Fl teams traveling.   do me a favor and when you have time try and find and watch these couple examples if you can find them and tell me what you think.

Central vs Stephenson

Central vs Hoover

Central vs Grayson

basically Central was 5x better than the top two teams and just barely able to escape.  Obviously when you're in that environment with a team at the same level they get worked like in the Grayson game.  Shoot watch the STA vs Centennial game.   Flags on every play and no calls on the other side.

...from another post

The home teams in these games involving long travel seem to have a HUGE advantage.  Visiting teams were 5-15 , scored no more than 24 points, and when they did win, won by 7 points or less.  I cannot remember many games in which a visiting team played a nationally ranked team and blew their doors off.  If Chandler had played the Bulls at Traz Powell, I am confident it would have been a completely different game.

I think we sometimes forget that these are young kids, not used to travel, and likely very distracted by things other than the game.  In that sense, the visiting teams often do not play up to their potential and, in some cases, the team we see is nothing like the "real" team.  For that reason, unlike college,  I think it is really stretching things to use these travel games to rank teams in polls.     

Even so, and even with some "home cookin'" on the part of the refs, I still find it surprising that in games within the past few years, the offenses of some our better Florida programs, loaded with speed and talent, have not been able to put more points on the board. 

[OldSchoolLion]

3 hours ago, 954gator said:

Cartersville was a nationally ranked defending champ with a top qb in the nation.  They were upset in the playoffs, but that isn't a bad loss.  Playing in GA is about as hard as it gets.   Neither Bartram Trail nor DFB is a team that regularly goes OOS.  DFB was just basically stopping by college campuses all week prior to the game and not focused at all on the actual game.   St. Joes Regional has been doing OOS for a while and has infinitely more resources than DFB.    Neither was an even matchup at all.   

Hey 954gator,

For a number of years I lived about 20 miles from Cartersville High.  They are a good small-school program, but that national ranking was a joke (no offense to Cartersville).  At best, I would put them around #20 team in Georgia.  Their record is deceiving because they play a weak schedule.  They do not play any of the big school powers, and I am confident they would get smoked by them if they did.  I think that ranking was convenient for ESPN so that they could hype a nationally ranked team playing on TV. 

In our end-of-year tournament, Bartram Trail was seeded #20.  If that is an accurate rating, I would expect the #20 team in Florida to smoke the #20 team in Georgia, assuming Florida is truly that much deeper.   And that is the question I am raising-the depth of Florida's teams.

I think if you matched the following teams below with Top 13 teams of any state, Florida would do well.  But beyond these teams, I think there is a pretty big dropoff.  In other words, match #15-20 Florida teams versus the same in Texas, California, or Georgia, and I am not nearly as confident.  

Even with the teams below, some of them are lacking enough of a well-balanced offensive attack to consistently win against Top  25 teams in the country.    It seems our teams are relying more and more on dual threat quarterbacks who can dominate in most cases, but put them up against a team with a talented defense with comparable speed that can contain the qb and they are in trouble. 

I made a point to watch some of the top California teams on line this past season.  They have some drop-back quarterbacks who can slice and dice defenses.  Those kinds of guys are not that common in Florida.  Even AHP's talented secondary would have been challenged by Mater Dei.  Their offense was on a completely different level than anything in Florida.   

 

Dr Phillips

Atlantic

Venice

St Thomas Aquinas

Northwestern

Central 

Carol City

Armwood

American Heritage/Plantation

Cardinal Gibbons

Cocoa

Raines

Chaminade

Oxbridge Acedemy

[OldSchoolLion]

21 hours ago, BrowardHandicapper said:

  Over the last few years, I have seen several graduations at  public Broward High Schools.  15% of seems rather low but that may be because a lot of the White population is a little older generation and in other parts of Broward versus where I live so to speak...  From my experience travelling around different parts of Broward, I would say it is about a 3 way divide. 33% W, B, H if I had to guess....Depends what part of Broward I am in.

 

I found some better information.  Dade and Palm Beach are about 18% Black and Broward is 25%.  That is considering all age groups.  But if you just look at high school age kids, Dade and Broward is at 25% and Broward is about 33%.  Nonetheless, the numbers are disproportionate, as you'll see below. 

Not that long ago, a kid might say"I'll never play pro ball, but at least I have a shot in college."  Then kids said, "I'll never play in college, but at least I can play in high school."  Now some kids are probably giving up on high school football.  Football is no longer a game for the "average kid," especially in talent hotbeds like Florida and California. 

I could see "average kids" looking at all of the superstar talent that is in our faces all the time on ESPN and recruiting websites, and saying "no thanks, I'll take up golf."   And when those "average" kids are not playing, the parents lose interest in the game, and the audience for hs football becomes much narrower. 

High school football has become a freak show(in terms of talent levels and body dimensions relative to the "average" American kid).  That's great for hardcore fans, but not necessarily great if the game wants to attract mainstream America.  Just as some folks lost interest in basketball because they could not relate to 6'9" point guards, I can see that happening with high school football.  I just looked at the Top 100 recruits in several defensive positions which, in the past, were possible options for shorter, smaller players.  

Top 100 Cornerbacks-1 White who is 6'1" tall

Top 100 Safeties-4 White (only 1 under 6' tall)

Top Outside LB's-15 White (none under 6'1")

Top 100 Inside LB's-27 White (only 1 under 6' tall)

As a 5'9" slow,White kid in Dade or Broward county with average talent, my chances of starting on defense on one of the better high school teams are likely pretty slim.  In this sense, football is becoming a very specialized sport.  

 

[DisabledAccount]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Hey 954gator,

For a number of years I lived about 20 miles from Cartersville High.  They are a good small-school program, but that national ranking was a joke (no offense to Cartersville).  At best, I would put them around #20 team in Georgia.  Their record is deceiving because they play a weak schedule.  They do not play any of the big school powers, and I am confident they would get smoked by them if they did.  I think that ranking was convenient for ESPN so that they could hype a nationally ranked team playing on TV. 

In our end-of-year tournament, Bartram Trail was seeded #20.  If that is an accurate rating, I would expect the #20 team in Florida to smoke the #20 team in Georgia, assuming Florida is truly that much deeper.   And that is the question I am raising-the depth of Florida's teams.

I think if you matched the following teams below with Top 13 teams of any state, Florida would do well.  But beyond these teams, I think there is a pretty big dropoff.  In other words, match #15-20 Florida teams versus the same in Texas, California, or Georgia, and I am not nearly as confident.  

Even with the teams below, some of them are lacking enough of a well-balanced offensive attack to consistently win against Top  25 teams in the country.    It seems our teams are relying more and more on dual threat quarterbacks who can dominate in most cases, but put them up against a team with a talented defense with comparable speed that can contain the qb and they are in trouble. 

I made a point to watch some of the top California teams on line this past season.  They have some drop-back quarterbacks who can slice and dice defenses.  Those kinds of guys are not that common in Florida.  Even AHP's talented secondary would have been challenged by Mater Dei.  Their offense was on a completely different level than anything in Florida.   

 

Dr Phillips

Atlantic

Venice

St Thomas Aquinas

Northwestern

Central 

Carol City

Armwood

American Heritage/Plantation

Cardinal Gibbons

Cocoa

Raines

Chaminade

Oxbridge Acedemy

Speaking of which i talked to a GA guy from the National board into creating a top 50 for GA (ended up with 51 teams bc he accidently ranked 2 teams in 1 spot 

 

He had Cartersville at 13th in GA 

 

So if we went by the tournament seeds it would be FL #20 vs GA #13

 

Btw idk if anyone on here would be interested but if so I'll post the GA tournament over here as well 

[OldSchoolLion]

8 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Speaking of which i talked to a GA guy from the National board into creating a top 50 for GA (ended up with 51 teams bc he accidently ranked 2 teams in 1 spot 

 

He had Cartersville at 13th in GA 

 

So if we went by the tournament seeds it would be FL #20 vs GA #13

 

Btw idk if anyone on here would be interested but if so I'll post the GA tournament over here as well 

That's interesting.  I would put them at #20, with the following teams ahead of them.   One could argue they should be higher, but the problem is that year in and year out they do not play anyone great during the regular season.  They are kind of like a Vero Beach-always a great record, but hard to gauge because of the level of competition they play.  They have 10+ good teams in Atlanta they could play, but for whatever reason, they never schedule them.  Marist, McEachern, Milton, Rome and Walton are all within an hour of Cartersville.  

So, until they prove they can beat some of the Top 20 programs, it is hard for me to put them higher.  They got beat by Blessed Trinity in the playoffs this year, a solid team, but not exactly a powerhouse.  There are a handful of teams on the list below that they might be close to in terms of talent, but I would give the other team the edge over them because Cartersville is not battle tested and is a much smaller school than most on the list, with less depth.   

In case some folks are not aware, the records of some of the Atlanta teams can be a bit deceiving.  Like Miami, a number of them play each other during the regular season, so it is very difficult to go undefeated.   Unlike Florida, the big school class in Georgia, 7A, is heads above all of the other classes.  11 on the list below are from 7A.   7A is extremely competitive.  11 of 15 games from the second round to the finals in 7A were decided by 10 points or less.  It's very exciting because when the playoffs start it is not unusual to have 8-10 teams with a legitimate shot of making it to the finals.   

 

.  

 

North Georgia

Archer

Blessed Trinity

Brookwood

Buford

Grayson

Marist

McEachern

Mill Creek

Milton

North Gwinnett

Rome

Tucker

Walton

 

South Georgia

Coffee County

Colquitt County

Lee County

Lowndes

Tift County

Warner Robins

[954gator]

On 1/9/2018 at 6:01 PM, OldSchoolLion said:

...from another post

The home teams in these games involving long travel seem to have a HUGE advantage.  Visiting teams were 5-15 , scored no more than 24 points, and when they did win, won by 7 points or less.  I cannot remember many games in which a visiting team played a nationally ranked team and blew their doors off.  If Chandler had played the Bulls at Traz Powell, I am confident it would have been a completely different game.

I think we sometimes forget that these are young kids, not used to travel, and likely very distracted by things other than the game.  In that sense, the visiting teams often do not play up to their potential and, in some cases, the team we see is nothing like the "real" team.  For that reason, unlike college,  I think it is really stretching things to use these travel games to rank teams in polls.     

Even so, and even with some "home cookin'" on the part of the refs, I still find it surprising that in games within the past few years, the offenses of some our better Florida programs, loaded with speed and talent, have not been able to put more points on the board. 

True, but something about Ga and Hoover stand out.   Centennial was pretty bad, but honestly the reffing in the MNW/Chandler game wasn't bad.   The ones NOT on ESPN or big broadcasts tend to be the worst (and GA's games tend to not be).   

Edit....forgot Ohio they shady as hell too.   St. Eds vs Mainland was pretty bad and damn I almost forgot the infamous Dwyer vs Glenville game! 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, 954gator said:

True, but something about Ga and Hoover stand out.   Centennial was pretty bad, but honestly the reffing in the MNW/Chandler game wasn't bad.   The ones NOT on ESPN or big broadcasts tend to be the worst (and GA's games tend to not be).   

Edit....forgot Ohio they shady as hell too.   St. Eds vs Mainland was pretty bad and damn I almost forgot the infamous Dwyer vs Glenville game! 

For what it's worth...I thought Centennial clearly outplayed Aquinas.  St Eds 47-28 over Mainland-hard to blame a 19 point loss completely on officiating.  Chaminade went up to St Eds and lost 14-7 and I was led to believe it was a fair game.

Below are 14 games played in Florida versus out-of-state schools in the past decade(this is not an exhaustive list).  Florida was 12-2 and won by a combined score of 341-191.  Many of the OOS teams were nationally ranked.  Any chance schools coming to Florida think there is some home cookin'?  ...like playing in the Muck?  Not that we should not have won some of those games, but 12-2 is awfully good going up against teams like these.

St Thomas Aquinas 9 vs St John Bosco (CA) 3 

St Thomas Aquinas 30 vs De La Salle(CA) 6

St Thomas Aquinas 42 vs Byrnes (SC) 34

St Thomas Aquinas 42 vs Camden County (GA) 28

American Heritage(PL) 21 vs Don Bosco (NJ) 0

American Heritage (PL) 31 vs Liberty (NV) 0

Dematha (MD) 23 vs American Heritage(PL) 22

Booker T 34 vs Bingham (UT) 28

Glades Central 6 vs Skyline (TX) 0

West Point (MS) 14 vs Mainland 0

Belle Glades Day 24 vs Twiggs County (GA) 12

Cocoa 14 vs Olive Branch (MS) 7

Pahokee 34 vs Wayne Hills (NJ) 23

Kissimee 32 vs Carson (CA) 13

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, 954gator said:

True, but something about Ga and Hoover stand out.   Centennial was pretty bad, but honestly the reffing in the MNW/Chandler game wasn't bad.   The ones NOT on ESPN or big broadcasts tend to be the worst (and GA's games tend to not be).   

Edit....forgot Ohio they shady as hell too.   St. Eds vs Mainland was pretty bad and damn I almost forgot the infamous Dwyer vs Glenville game! 

Playing at Hoover-yes, I could see there being some home cooking.  They are just a little too serious(and proud) about winning, if you know what I mean.  Playing Valdosta, Lowndes(the concrete jungle), Colquitt County-that's like going to Boot Hill in Madison.  There are also some other rural places in Georgia where it would be very tough to win.  But I would say the same for a team coming to play in Polk County, the Muck, or some of the northern counties.  

I used to drive back and forth between Atlanta and Florida quite a bit and would make a point to stop in the Waffle House's along I-75 near Valdosta and start wars with the patrons over who was best, Lowndes or Valdosta.  Them folks is serious!

In Atlanta, I think you are more apt to get a fair game.  Buford vs Trinity Christian was on ESPN, so would think refs would have been reasonable.