Average Game Score Margins - Thoughts?

[LAZ]

A review of game scoring margins (In state contests only) over the past ten (10) regular seasons clearly indicates an increase in margin of victory for each game played, especially in 2017 and 2018. This is somewhat puzzling because one would think the trend should reflect the opposite because of the new point system. ie. Better Competition = More FHSAA Power Points = More Competitive Games.

My initial thinking was that an increase in the amount of teams caused the increase. However, this is not the case because 10 years ago we actually had more schools playing 11 man football than we do today. Anyway, here are the regular season average game scoring margins from 2009-2018:

2009	23.27
2010	22.78
2011	22.93
2012	23.65
2013	24.07
2014	23.60
2015	22.52
2016	24.05
2017	24.76
2018	25.27

    

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, LAZ said:

A review of game scoring margins (In state contests only) over the past ten (10) regular seasons clearly indicates an increase in margin of victory for each game played, especially in 2017 and 2018. This is somewhat puzzling because one would think the trend should reflect the opposite because of the new point system. ie. Better Competition = More FHSAA Power Points = More Competitive Games.

My initial thinking was that an increase in the amount of teams caused the increase. However, this is not the case because 10 years ago we actually had more schools playing 11 man football than we do today. Anyway, here are the regular season average game scoring margins from 2009-2018:

2009	23.27
2010	22.78
2011	22.93
2012	23.65
2013	24.07
2014	23.60
2015	22.52
2016	24.05
2017	24.76
2018	25.27

    

Even though the point system can improve the competitive balance of the playoffs we won't see it's full potential until they fix the unbalanced classifications 

 

Also as more and more of the middle tier teams get weeded out we are seeing a huge separation between the top of a region (among playoff teams)  and the bottom level of regional playoff teams so the blowouts have gotten worse as a result 

[Phfootball9]

What the hell is a unbalanced classification?

[DisabledAccount]

16 minutes ago, Phfootball9 said:

What the hell is a unbalanced classification?

Small districts and regions have caused a lot of regions to boost average teams into the playoffs only to get slaughtered when they face a good team 

 

8 classes is too many if this system is going to work

[DarterBlue2]

49 minutes ago, LAZ said:

A review of game scoring margins (In state contests only) over the past ten (10) regular seasons clearly indicates an increase in margin of victory for each game played, especially in 2017 and 2018. This is somewhat puzzling because one would think the trend should reflect the opposite because of the new point system. ie. Better Competition = More FHSAA Power Points = More Competitive Games.

My initial thinking was that an increase in the amount of teams caused the increase. However, this is not the case because 10 years ago we actually had more schools playing 11 man football than we do today. Anyway, here are the regular season average game scoring margins from 2009-2018:

2009	23.27
2010	22.78
2011	22.93
2012	23.65
2013	24.07
2014	23.60
2015	22.52
2016	24.05
2017	24.76
2018	25.27

    

Curious data. But is the data really indicative of a trend, though? Yes, 25.27 is a new high. However, we were at 24.07 back in 2013, and reverted to points well within the range over the next two years. Indeed, the 24.76 does not appear aberrant. However, I will agree that the 25.27 does seem like at least an expansion of the range.

Perhaps, some team, particularly the ones with tough districts, have "gambled" on the conservative side in their scheduling rather than scheduling tougher competition. Sometimes new regimes produce unanticipated results. 

On another note, LAZ, sure hope you can make some of the State Title games this year. I feel it would not be the same without your presence. 

[Phfootball9]

I don't think the playoff system effected the margin of victory at all. The data is from regular season games.

 

However I do think places where football is still a big deal and where it is not have gotten farther apart. Out in the panhandle you had big schools dropping 9th grade teams and smaller rosters. Guy we are watching the death of football. So enjoy it someday it will be gone.

[DisabledAccount]

10 minutes ago, Phfootball9 said:

I don't think the playoff system effected the margin of victory at all. The data is from regular season games.

 

However I do think places where football is still a big deal and where it is not have gotten farther apart. Out in the panhandle you had big schools dropping 9th grade teams and smaller rosters. Guy we are watching the death of football. So enjoy it someday it will be gone.

No we aren't we just watching a transition period as the game is changing on all levels to protect the athletes long term health 

 

Football is still making most money of any sport by a wide margin 

[Phfootball9]

There are fewer kids playing football by a wide margin.

[OldSchoolLion]

I am posting below specifically about the playoffs.  Sorry if this is not the most appropriate thread to do so, but since we are talking about margin of victory, the playoffs are one facet of it.

8 classes + too many teams in the playoffs = blowouts, no matter what system is used to determine which teams are in the playoffs.  And 7A is the poster child for this phenomenon.  I have always believed that the 7A class is the best example of a class that is overkill (in terms of too many classes).  

It is obvious from the data below that the lower seeds are an issue.  11 of 32(34%) #7 or #8 seeds in classes 5A-8A this year lost by 35 or more points.  10 did the same last year.

On another note, the number of higher seeds getting blown out in 7A and 8A(bolded below) reflects the problem of this hybrid approach of using district champions and power average to determine seedings.  When there is that many higher seeds getting not just beaten, but demolished, there is a problem with the seeding system.

2017-2018 1st round of playoffs-seeds with losses of 35 or more points

8A-2018 #3, #4, #6, #8

8A-2017 #6, #7, #8

7A-2018 #2, #3, #4(2) #7(2), #8(3)

7A-2017 #6, #7, #8(2)

6A-2018 #7

6A-2017 #4, #5, #8(2)

5A-2018 #7(3), #8

5A-2017 #7, #8(2)

 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Curious data. But is the data really indicative of a trend, though? Yes, 25.27 is a new high. However, we were at 24.07 back in 2013, and reverted to points well within the range over the next two years. Indeed, the 24.76 does not appear aberrant. However, I will agree that the 25.27 does seem like at least an expansion of the range.

Perhaps, some team, particularly the ones with tough districts, have "gambled" on the conservative side in their scheduling rather than scheduling tougher competition. Sometimes new regimes produce unanticipated results. 

On another note, LAZ, sure hope you can make some of the State Title games this year. I feel it would not be the same without your presence. 

Have to agree with Darter on this one.  Could just be "noise" in the system.  I think more years of data is needed to label it a trend.  

[Phfootball9]

Is it even possible to prevent these blowouts, no matter what system is used? The one seed is likely to be much better than the 8 in a region. 

 

My biggest problem with the seeding system is I don't think the points reflect the truth on the field. I understand that a perfect system is not possible. But currently the system does a poor job between regions, imo. The system is ripe for gaming and I predict you will see that as schools are able adjust their schedules.