Why No Matter Which Playoff System We Use, the Results Will Be the Same

[OldSchoolLion]

Over the past 2 seasons, 44 teams made the playoffs who would not have done so under the "old" system.  How did they do?  Here is a summary. Further below is a detailed look at each team's results.  

• 31 lost in the 1st round
• 7 lost in the 2nd round
• 5 lost in the 3rd round
• 1 won a state title

 

Of the 6 teams who made a region final over the past 2 seasons, only 1 team won(Northwestern this year).  Only 3 were reasonably competitive in the region final...Northwestern, Carol City and Western. 22 of the teams lost their games by more than 21 points.  Had Central, Carol City and Northwestern not been in the same district, they all most certainly would have made the playoffs under the old system.  We did not need an entire new playoff system to "fix" that problem and allow all of them to make the playoffs.

 

It is extremely rare for a team that has not won its district and has 3 or more losses to advance.  Between 2000-2017, about 1150 district runners-up/wildlcard teams made the playoffs in the upper classes (5A-8A from 2011-2016 and 3A-6A from 2000-2010).  Only 1% of those 1150 teams with 3 or more regular season losses made it to a state semifinal or beyond. That describes 38 of the 44 teams.  

 

 So, a few "good" teams made the playoffs under the new system.  But a few good teams got excluded.  And we could say the exact same with the "old" system in which district runners-up advanced.  And now we are talking about yet another system, RPI.   And I'll bet the farm we will say the exact same with that system.  We are bickering over bubble teams who never would have made the playoffs in the ancient days, and today their chances are slim that they will even make it past the first round.  And we are trying to fix a "blowout" problem that will never be fixed with this many teams in the playoffs and growing disparities in talent between the "rich" and the "poor."

 

How about we just toss a coin to decide which system we use?   I'm all for trying new things that make improvements.  But I see little "payback" with these efforts...and at a cost of making things substantially more complicated.   

 

2018 Playoff Teams under New System

8A

West Orange(7-3) Lost 16-0 1st round

Palm Coast(7-3) Lost 34-7 1st round

Gateway(5-5)  Lost 48-6 1st round

Treasure Coast(8-3) Lost 41-22 1st round

Miramar(6-3) Lost 32-14 1st round

South Dade(8-2) Lost in 3rd round 54-28

 

7A

Fletcher(7-3) Lost 38-10 1st round

Gaither(7-3) Lost 36-16 1st round  

Wiregrass Ranch(7-3) Lost 43-7 1st round

Palmetto(7-3) Lost 21-14 2nd round

Tampa Bay Tech(7-3) Lost 59-23 1st round

South Miami(8-2)  Lost 77-20 1st round

 

6A

Pace(7-3) Lost 38-6 1st round

Lake Weir(7-3)  Lost 65-7 2nd round

South Lake(6-4) Lost 54-0 1st round

Northwestern(5-5) Won state title

Norland(4-6) Lost 34-0 1st round

 

5A

Bolles(6-4) Lost 34-7 3rd round

Hernando(7-3)  Lost 28-14 1st round

Desoto County(6-3)  Lost 44-0 1st round

Jefferson(5-5) Lost 34-14 3rd round

Merritt Island(5-5) Lost 49-14 1st round

Coconut Creek(6-4)  Lost 35-13 1st round

 

2017 Playoff Teams under New System

8A

R1 Apopka(8-3) lost 34-27 in 2nd round

R2 Gateway(7-4) lost 60-15 in 1st round

R3 Western(8-2) lost 35-22 in 3rd round

R4 Homestead(7-4) lost 50-0 in 1st round

R4 Southridge(5-3) lost 27-21 in 2nd round

 

7A

R1 Buchholz(5-5) lost 31-21 in 1st round

R2 Winter Haven(6-3) lost 17-13 in 1st round

R2 Wiregrass Ranch(8-2) lost 52-0 in 2nd round

R3 Palmetto(7-4) lost 42-26 in 2nd round

R3 St Pete(6-4) lost 49-13 in 1st round

R4 South Miami(7-4) lost 56-0 in 1st round

 

6A

R1 Pine Forest(4-5) lost 28-0 in 1st round

R2 Chamberlain(8-2) lost 14-13 in 1st round

R3 Port Charlotte(7-2) lost 13-7 in 1st round

R3 Barron Collier(4-5) lost 27-24 in 1st round

R4 Carol City(7-3) lost 23-15 in 3rd round

R4 Norland(7-4) lost 21-12 in 1st round

 

5A

R1 Rickards(5-4) lost 42-19 in 1st round

R1 Ponte Vedra(7-3) lost 28-18 in 1st round

R2 Menendez(7-3) lost 37-28 in 2nd round

R4 Merritt Island(6-3) lost 42-0 in 1st round

 

 

 

[gwdrum75]

Interesting read......the 1963 Playoff policy (1st year for FHSAA football playoffs).

[imjustafan2]

13 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Over the past 2 seasons, 44 teams made the playoffs who would not have done so under the "old" system.  How did they do?  Here is a summary. Further below is a detailed look at each team's results.  

• 31 lost in the 1st round
• 7 lost in the 2nd round
• 5 lost in the 3rd round
• 1 won a state title

 

Of the 6 teams who made a region final over the past 2 seasons, only 1 team won(Northwestern this year).  Only 3 were reasonably competitive in the region final...Northwestern, Carol City and Western. 22 of the teams lost their games by more than 21 points.  Had Central, Carol City and Northwestern not been in the same district, they all most certainly would have made the playoffs under the old system.  We did not need an entire new playoff system to "fix" that problem and allow all of them to make the playoffs.

 

It is extremely rare for a team that has not won its district and has 3 or more losses to advance.  Between 2000-2017, about 1150 district runners-up/wildlcard teams made the playoffs in the upper classes (5A-8A from 2011-2016 and 3A-6A from 2000-2010).  Only 1% of those 1150 teams with 3 or more regular season losses made it to a state semifinal or beyond. That describes 38 of the 44 teams.  

 

 So, a few "good" teams made the playoffs under the new system.  But a few good teams got excluded.  And we could say the exact same with the "old" system in which district runners-up advanced.  And now we are talking about yet another system, RPI.   And I'll bet the farm we will say the exact same with that system.  We are bickering over bubble teams who never would have made the playoffs in the ancient days, and today their chances are slim that they will even make it past the first round.  And we are trying to fix a "blowout" problem that will never be fixed with this many teams in the playoffs and growing disparities in talent between the "rich" and the "poor."

 

How about we just toss a coin to decide which system we use?   I'm all for trying new things that make improvements.  But I see little "payback" with these efforts...and at a cost of making things substantially more complicated.   

 

2018 Playoff Teams under New System

8A

West Orange(7-3) Lost 16-0 1st round

Palm Coast(7-3) Lost 34-7 1st round

Gateway(5-5)  Lost 48-6 1st round

Treasure Coast(8-3) Lost 41-22 1st round

Miramar(6-3) Lost 32-14 1st round

South Dade(8-2) Lost in 3rd round 54-28

 

7A

Fletcher(7-3) Lost 38-10 1st round

Gaither(7-3) Lost 36-16 1st round  

Wiregrass Ranch(7-3) Lost 43-7 1st round

Palmetto(7-3) Lost 21-14 2nd round

Tampa Bay Tech(7-3) Lost 59-23 1st round

South Miami(8-2)  Lost 77-20 1st round

 

6A

Pace(7-3) Lost 38-6 1st round

Lake Weir(7-3)  Lost 65-7 2nd round

South Lake(6-4) Lost 54-0 1st round

Northwestern(5-5) Won state title

Norland(4-6) Lost 34-0 1st round

 

5A

Bolles(6-4) Lost 34-7 3rd round

Hernando(7-3)  Lost 28-14 1st round

Desoto County(6-3)  Lost 44-0 1st round

Jefferson(5-5) Lost 34-14 3rd round

Merritt Island(5-5) Lost 49-14 1st round

Coconut Creek(6-4)  Lost 35-13 1st round

 

2017 Playoff Teams under New System

8A

R1 Apopka(8-3) lost 34-27 in 2nd round

R2 Gateway(7-4) lost 60-15 in 1st round

R3 Western(8-2) lost 35-22 in 3rd round

R4 Homestead(7-4) lost 50-0 in 1st round

R4 Southridge(5-3) lost 27-21 in 2nd round

 

7A

R1 Buchholz(5-5) lost 31-21 in 1st round

R2 Winter Haven(6-3) lost 17-13 in 1st round

R2 Wiregrass Ranch(8-2) lost 52-0 in 2nd round

R3 Palmetto(7-4) lost 42-26 in 2nd round

R3 St Pete(6-4) lost 49-13 in 1st round

R4 South Miami(7-4) lost 56-0 in 1st round

 

6A

R1 Pine Forest(4-5) lost 28-0 in 1st round

R2 Chamberlain(8-2) lost 14-13 in 1st round

R3 Port Charlotte(7-2) lost 13-7 in 1st round

R3 Barron Collier(4-5) lost 27-24 in 1st round

R4 Carol City(7-3) lost 23-15 in 3rd round

R4 Norland(7-4) lost 21-12 in 1st round

 

5A

R1 Rickards(5-4) lost 42-19 in 1st round

R1 Ponte Vedra(7-3) lost 28-18 in 1st round

R2 Menendez(7-3) lost 37-28 in 2nd round

R4 Merritt Island(6-3) lost 42-0 in 1st round

 

 

 

I believe the proposed changes still apply to 1-4A. 5-8A will still go by district champs, so the above comparison wouldn't apply. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[badbird]

On 1/12/2019 at 12:19 PM, OldSchoolLion said:

How about we just toss a coin to decide which system we use? 

probably more accurate and less time and money wasted doing this.  Gadsden is all for this system as well