Re-Classification

[Ray Icaza]

12 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

Ray, I could give you a long summation of why your argument about private schools transfers doesn't hold up from personal experience, but let me state, the state of Florida will not allow it. Additionally, when you start looking at "large school" privates, there aren't enough to create a real classification. Below are the largest private schools (sorry if I missed some). Honestly that feels kind of small for a classification, after that you start getting into private schools that couldn't compete with the JVs of these schools.  Again, I don't have a problem with the separation, but you aren't going to get it pass the state legislature. 

1. 8A: Columbus (3518) (doubled due to all boys)
2. 7A: St. Thomas Aquinas (1994)
3. 6A: Belen Jesuit
4. 6A: Jesuit (Tampa)
5. 5A: Bishop Moore
6. 5A: American Heritage (Plantation)
7. 5A: St. Brendan
8. 4A: Bolles (787)
9. 4A: American Heritage (Delray Beach) (1026)
10. 4A: Calvary Christian (782)
11. 4A: Cardinal Gibbons (1102)
12. 4A: Gulliver Prep (944)
13. 4A: Immaculata-La Salle (872)
14. 4A: Monsignor Pace (833)
15. 4A: North Broward Prep (892)
16. 4A: Pine Crest (857)

 

50 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

Ray, I could give you a long summation of why your argument about private schools transfers doesn't hold up from personal experience, but let me state, the state of Florida will not allow it. Additionally, when you start looking at "large school" privates, there aren't enough to create a real classification. Below are the largest private schools (sorry if I missed some). Honestly that feels kind of small for a classification, after that you start getting into private schools that couldn't compete with the JVs of these schools.  Again, I don't have a problem with the separation, but you aren't going to get it pass the state legislature. 

1. 8A: Columbus (3518) (doubled due to all boys)
2. 7A: St. Thomas Aquinas (1994)
3. 6A: Belen Jesuit
4. 6A: Jesuit (Tampa)
5. 5A: Bishop Moore
6. 5A: American Heritage (Plantation)
7. 5A: St. Brendan
8. 4A: Bolles (787)
9. 4A: American Heritage (Delray Beach) (1026)
10. 4A: Calvary Christian (782)
11. 4A: Cardinal Gibbons (1102)
12. 4A: Gulliver Prep (944)
13. 4A: Immaculata-La Salle (872)
14. 4A: Monsignor Pace (833)
15. 4A: North Broward Prep (892)
16. 4A: Pine Crest (857)

Looks like a perfect 16 team playoff group in the large classification.

[Hwy17]

1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

You have. I proposed since back in my FlaVarsity Days, ran the spread sheets, showed what classes would like. I get it. Population size is easier and in theory fairest, but the problem is we know that it doesn't produce a great system. It produces lopsided results that nobody (winner or loser) is interested. 
 

For programs like football, I am generally in favor of the promotion/relegation power points being over a rolling 4-5 year period rather than one year (the original article makes it sound like 1 year, which would do exactly what you say). Other sports, I could make the argument that roster/coach turnover is much greater and thus teams improve much quicker than in football. 

But if the Unicorns, go 5-5, 5-5, 8-4 (2nd round), (14-1) they might move up, but if they went from 8-4, 8-4, 12-2, and 14-1. They might be more likely to move up and that is ok. I am positive that team would still be competitive in the higher class, would they be dominating, maybe not and again that is ok. 

My idea of a promotion/relegation system is only a handful of teams would change in a given year (10% up, 10% down in each classification so about 8-9 schools in each direction.) It would take a long time for a 3A school to get to 8A, and even if the Unicorns move up the next, there will still be bad schools in their new classification as there will be schools who were bad, just not bad enough to move down. 
 

Here's what I see:  Bartow a couple of years ago was 0-10. The years just before were not much better. Then they hire a competent head coach. Overnight he turns the program around and now they are winning. Bartow is 7a. They didn't have to go to 6A to start winning. Some schools choose to go independent, Bartow did not.  It's examples like this that has me convinced that most schools need a leadership change to be successful. Not some gimmick.

[gatorman-uf]

20 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

Here's what I see:  Bartow a couple of years ago was 0-10. The years just before were not much better. Then they hire a competent head coach. Overnight he turns the program around and now they are winning. Bartow is 7a. They didn't have to go to 6A to start winning. Some schools choose to go independent, Bartow did not.  It's examples like this that has me convinced that most schools need a leadership change to be successful. Not some gimmick.

And I understand that, but look big picture for Bartow:
Since 2004, MaxPreps has them with a 85-93 record, would that be so bad that we should drop them a classification. I wouldn't think so.
Yes Bartow had some lean years and some good years. If we only looked at the 4 year period that ends with the 0-10 season. They would be 12-29 (.292 win percentage). And yes, that is probably bad enough to be in the bottom 10 of 6A programs in that time period. And I do agree with you, good coaches can turn programs, but that is a lot harder to replicate and takes a little bit of luck to make that happen. Even good coaches can walk into a bad situation and be unable to turn it around. 

Where I see promotion/relegation working is not for a school like Bartow (who over the long period has been average), but a school like Interlachen.
They have consistently been 3A/4A level school. Since 2004, MaxPreps has them at 35-124 (.220), with one 6-5 season in 2010 (not sure how as they didn't make the playoffs unless it was a Bowl Game). They are the definition of a team without a winning tradition in the modern era. So let's give them a chance to create some winning, maybe 4A is too big, maybe 3A is the place for them, maybe 2A. In every classification in every region there are a couple of teams who are just in the wrong classification, they could be competitive if they went from 8A to 6A (by competitive I mean 5-5), but instead we continue to say, you have too many students, you must be 8A. 

We put brand new schools (usually after 2 years) into a classification of whatever their size they are, without regard for the fact that they don't have the fan base, community, to be successful out of the gate. Take a look at the state championships, of the public schools, while I don't have the proof in front of me, I would say that it take a minimum of 15 years for a public school to be good enough to make it the state championship. Maybe Dwyer made it there a little sooner, maybe Bartram Trail. 

I know that population size is the fastest.
I know the correct way to turn around a program is through coaching and community support.
I just don't think population size acknowledges actual differences in school support for the programs.
I don't think great coaching is available everywhere.