2S district 8

[Beek]

This shows the disparity in some of the districts and playoff structure. A 2-8 team is going to win the district ranked 533 in the state as of today. Second place is 4-5 so this is no power house district. But wow!

 

School Name	*W-L	*Pct.	*PF	*PA	W-L	Pct.	PF	PA	Strk
Lake Weir	2-1	0.667	62	71	2-8	0.200	119	342	1 W
Crescent City	2-1	0.667	111	65	4-5	0.444	244	250	2 L
Atlantic	1-1	0.500	54	43	2-6	0.250	138	210	2 L
Taylor	0-2	0.000	24	72	1-7	0.125	57	278	7 L

[DisabledAccount]

29 minutes ago, Beek said:

This shows the disparity in some of the districts and playoff structure. A 2-8 team is going to win the district ranked 533 in the state as of today. Second place is 4-5 so this is no power house district. But wow!

 

School Name	*W-L	*Pct.	*PF	*PA	W-L	Pct.	PF	PA	Strk
Lake Weir	2-1	0.667	62	71	2-8	0.200	119	342	1 W
Crescent City	2-1	0.667	111	65	4-5	0.444	244	250	2 L
Atlantic	1-1	0.500	54	43	2-6	0.250	138	210	2 L
Taylor	0-2	0.000	24	72	1-7	0.125	57	278	7 L

Every team in the district is terrible so a bad team was going to the playoffs no matter what 

 

But could you imagine how bad it would be if TWO teams from this district were guaranteed a playoff spot 

[Perspective]

18 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Every team in the district is terrible so a bad team was going to the playoffs no matter what 

 

But could you imagine how bad it would be if TWO teams from this district were guaranteed a playoff spot 

Yeah, you'd have two teams losing in the opening round instead of one. 

[DisabledAccount]

2 hours ago, Perspective said:

Yeah, you'd have two teams losing in the opening round instead of one. 

All the more reason to have wild cards and not give someone a playoff spot by virtue of being the second best team in one of the worst districts in the state of Florida classification era 

[PinellasFB]

Atlantic HS is actually 2-1 in the district and 3-6 overall.  So there are three 2-1 teams in the district and they have all beaten each other so what is the tie breaker?

[Beek]

6 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

Atlantic HS is actually 2-1 in the district and 3-6 overall.  So there are three 2-1 teams in the district and they have all beaten each other so what is the tie breaker?

Couldn't say personally. I am going by MaxPreps  analytics

[Dr. D]

From the Football Handbook:

4.7.2.1.3.2 Breaking Ties.

(a) If two schools are tied for first place in the final district standings, the winner of the regular season game between the two schools shall advance to the regional tournament as the district champion.

b) If three schools are tied for first place in the final district standings and one of the three schools defeated the other two in regular season competition, then that school shall advance to the regional tournament as the district champion.

(c) If three or more schools are tied for first place in the final district standings and the tie cannot be broken based on the results of regular season competition, then a district tiebreaker shall be based on the FHSAA Power Rankings throughout the entire regular season to include week 11 games.

[Beek]

Power rankings will be out again soon. So looking at the previous it should be Crescent City...Thanks for the clarification. 

[PinellasFB]

32 minutes ago, Beek said:

Power rankings will be out again soon. So looking at the previous it should be Crescent City...Thanks for the clarification. 

One thing I do like about using power rankings is that all three of these teams will play meaningful final games out of district to determine the winner of the district.  

[Dr. D]

What's really sad is that a team may make the playoffs under the current system on the basis of a "good loss".  @anonimishas explained how a team can improve its ranking with a loss under an algorithm system.  I can see it now: head coach to team after Friday's 42-7 loss, "great loss tonight guys; we earned 0.864 Power Ranking points so we're in the playoffs."  Whatever happened to winning?  Name another league where you can improve your playoff chances with a "good loss"... the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, SEC, your local PeeWee football league?  Nada.  Name another state high school association where you can improve your playoff chances with a "good loss".  I get Florida wants to be different, but this is what you're defending?  Put 8 teams in a district, play round-robin games, and the team with the most wins is the champion; the team with the 2nd most wins is the runner-up, etc.  No whining on Saturday when somebody's team gets screwed by a "good loss" (or a "bad win").

[anonimis]

14 hours ago, Dr. D said:

What's really sad is that a team may make the playoffs under the current system on the basis of a "good loss".  @anonimishas explained how a team can improve its ranking with a loss under an algorithm system.  I can see it now: head coach to team after Friday's 42-7 loss, "great loss tonight guys; we earned 0.864 Power Ranking points so we're in the playoffs."  Whatever happened to winning?  Name another league where you can improve your playoff chances with a "good loss"... the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, SEC, your local PeeWee football league?  Nada.  Name another state high school association where you can improve your playoff chances with a "good loss".  I get Florida wants to be different, but this is what you're defending?  Put 8 teams in a district, play round-robin games, and the team with the most wins is the champion; the team with the 2nd most wins is the runner-up, etc.  No whining on Saturday when somebody's team gets screwed by a "good loss" (or a "bad win").

"good loss" is your phrase, not mine, but since you mentioned it, The NHL gives points for overtime losses and 3/5 SEC teams that have won playoff championships had losses, but gained favor because of who they lost to.  The  leagues you mentioned all play more games with fewer teams, which helps settle these problems, so the problem isn't apples-to-apples.

I see you are from NW Florida.  I used to play/coach in south Florida.  You have familiarity with all the teams in your region.  I'm curious how competitive games are.  Down south, many games each week are uninteresting blowouts, win or loss.  The top tier teams have done a much, much better job recently of seeking out top level competition, which I applaud.  The mid-low tier teams still have bad scheduling.  How many games on a schedule are blowouts 33+, win or loss?  Is travel a big issue?  How many games are out of state?

If the FHSAA ratings are "trueskill" based, which I suspect based on ratings I made for myself last season and how similar they look, you never gain rating points for a loss.  Another reason I think it is "trueskill" based is exactly because it exists in this weird realm of being patented by Microsoft, but they don't care if people make their own implementations or something.  I'm not a lawyer or statistician, so give me some lenience there.  Unless the FHSAA says its what they are using, its only speculation.  I am sincere in asking for an example of a team going up in rating following a loss.  It would be evidence that it is not "trueskill".  If it is "trueskill", we are still missing the other half of its application, which is matchmaking and that would be the root cause of the upset many on this board have.

 

additional trueskill info

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/NIPS2006_0688.pdf

https://trueskill.org the FHSAA ratings look like (mu - 25).

 

[Dr. D]

A lot to unpack here.  I agree that you did not say that you could gain rating points for a loss, but you did say the Alphas could improve their relative ranking by losing to a higher rated team than the other losing teams around them.  In my opinion, that would be a "good loss".  I don't believe you could ever improve your relative ranking in an absolute system where win=1 and loss=0.  I'll give you the NHL example (although overtime hockey is akin to playing 7-on-7 in high school football overtime).  College teams do get credit for a "good loss" in CFP ratings (first set out on Tuesday night), but those are subjective ratings, so not apples-to-apples.  By the way, will Creekside improve their regional ranking by beating an 0-9 Atlantic Coast on Friday, or would they be better off not playing, given the hit on their strength of schedule, i.e., a "bad win"?

As for NW Florida, the talent disparity is not as pronounced in other parts of the state, so I would say the games are more competitive than other parts of the state.  There are the occasional impactful transfers, but in the low single digits as opposed to large numbers.  So, the notion of the "community" school, while not perfect, exists in a general sense.  Travel of 50-150 miles happens several times a year, but travel is always an issue in the Panhandle.  A number of teams fill out their schedule with teams from south Mississippi, south Alabama, or SW Georgia.  Of all the teams I have seen in person or on television in this area. Pine Forest is by the best.  The Pine Forest "haters" out there might want to be careful come 3S playoff time.  Pensacola Catholic may make a little noise in 2S.  Niceville and Navarre are solid, but unlikely to get out of the region in 4S.

Thank you for the interesting reading.  I think you are underestimating your statistical knowledge.  Nor am I a statistician (I have been trying some linear regression to gauge weights of W-L and SOS, but to no avail).  But as I noted, unless the very people who pushed through the change to use MaxPreps change their minds, this is what we will be dealing with for the foreseeable future, so best to try to understand it and use to your advantage (i.e., what is the best way to construct your schedule?)

[Corey_Davis]

District 8-2S          District        Overall      

Crescent City          2-1               4-5

Lake Weir                2-1              2-8                    

Atlantic                   2-1              3-6 

Taylor                      0-3              1-8 

       

Oct. 27

Lake Weir 30, Crescent City 28

Oct. 28

Port Orange Atlantic 47, Pierson Taylor 6

Nov. 4

Crescent City at Titusville, 7

Port Orange Atlantic at Pine Ridge, 7

Open: Lake Weir

 

Definitely a hot mess and the scary part is the winner of the tiebreaker will have to travel to Bradford in the first round