Class 3A, Week 5

[SPCjessica2004]

Here are the results from last week:

1) Jacksonville Trinity Christian lost to Tallahassee Lincoln 25-22. 
2) Clearwater Central Catholic defeated Clearwater Academy 53-18
3) Oxbridge Academy defeated West Orange 49-7
4) Trinity Catholic lost to Wakulla 33-19
5) Chaminade-Madonna defeated Everglades Prep 50-6


My 3A Top 5 going into Week 5.

1) Clearwater Central Catholic
2) Oxbridge Academy
3) Jacksonville Trinity Christian
4) Chaminade-Madonna
5) Lakeland Christian School

I think Oxbridge has played the toughest schedule so far, but am giving CCC a tiny nod as they're on a 14 game regular season winning streak and their offense, to me, is the best in 3A right now. Oxbridge is right on their heels with the best defense in 3A; however, I'm concerned what happens when they lose their best player for district and playoff games. Jacksonville Trinity Christian is at #3 after losing a game they should of won against Tallahassee Lincoln.  JaxTCA should be commended for playing a tough schedule, but I can't put a 2 loss JaxTCA team above Oxbridge or CCC right now. That said, JaxTCA still has Godby, IMG and Pine Forrest on the schedule- they'll have a shot to jump back in.

Chaminade-Madonna demolished Everglades Prep and now plays a very interesting game this week against a good Pace team. 

As for the 5th spot, it's really a toss-up as there's about 5 teams that could take this spot. I gave the nod to Lakeland Christian as they're 4-0 and have a talented roster; however, I can see people giving it to Tampa Catholic. Even at 0-2, Tampa Catholic is going to be dangerous; however, after getting smacked for a 2nd straight week- the Crusaders are really in need of momentum. TC has CCC coming to town this week- the Marauders circled this game on the calendar prior to the season starting as a showcase game.

Berkeley Prep, Orlando First Academy and Trinity Catholic were the other teams that I took into consideration for the 5th spot. Another team that could get some mention soon is Melbourne Central Catholic- who is undefeated after schlacking Melbourne Holy Trinity last night 52-14. They play Union County and Lakeland Christian in the coming weeks.

I'm also not selling the boat on American Heritage Delray, but they now have 3 losses on the year and last night they were trucked by Miami Northwestern 41-0. I'm not really sure what's going on with the Stallions, but I'm pretty sure they're dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.



 

[mbhs69]

Always enjoy your analysis and in-season rankings.  I look at rankings more as interim progress reports,  as it usually boils down to "who's hot" or on a roll during playoffs,  unless there's clearly an overwhelming powerhouse during the season.  This year, 3A gives us some suspense since there's a number of equally competitive top teams.

CCC shows a consistent, potent offense so far.   Big guns across the O board.  Let's see when they face real strong defenses.  At that point CCC coaching comes into play as game adjustment will come to the fore.

TCA, never sleep on them.  Coaching, pride and tradition are their intangibles, and they are skilled and athletic.  I still see them being in the final mix.

Oxbridge's top DB was lost early (arm) in last week's (week 3) game and didn't play vs W. Orange this week , the team still holding WO to 7.   I sense that indicates some balanced skill across their Defense to offset that DB hole, despite the fact that he wouldn't play in district games or playoffs anyway.   Their Offense continues to develop despite laying 49 on WO.

Chaminade is the wild card due to the shear number of skilled athletes onboard.

For AHD, I'm at a loss as to the wide margin of the losses ... who'd a thunk it?

just some thoughts on those teams I've been able to follow.  

[SPCjessica2004]

MBHS69,

I think you're on point. Chaminade is the wild card. Many felt they would march right over all of 3A, I figured they'd need at least half a year to gel, when they dropped IMG it told me that the team, while talented, probably isn't where they thought they would be. Chaminade still has the toughest road to the finals of all 3 teams, with Oxbridge right behind them.

Oxbridge has really overcome the most adversity this offseason.  CCC hasn't played with their 2 best starting defensive linemen all year- they'll both be back this week vs Tampa Catholic, I was wrong in saying they came back last night against CAI in a previous post- they were out last night. CAI will be the next Oxbridge, they have unlimited resources and I can see them going 9-1 or 8-2 this year. That will be a powerhouse in a few years. The Crankfield kid is every bit as good as any running back in 3A, from Rashaad Martin to Shaun Shivers.

I'm not sleeping on TCA, nor do I think anybody is; however, let's call a spade a spade. They're held to a higher level of expectation than anyone else in 3a since they've been the flag bearer for the past few years. It's a shock to see them at 2-2 regardless of who they're playing.

I'm curious how American Heritage does against Oxbridge in a few weeks. Heritage hasn't looked great so far, but they've played the best of the best. This is a perfect time for their bye week.

 

[mbhs69]

If those 2 returning DL's at CCC make a truly noticeable difference, then matched with their Offensive weapons CCC'd be scary,  perhaps changing the entire 3A landscape.    But to me TCA is still the team to beat.  They've been there before and nothing beats that experience and ability to envision the post-season tension,  deal with it, and maintain focus.  Their coach is the anchor and am sure he's using each hiccup as an opportunity to identify faults, refine, correct, and work on execution.  I just don't think they're gonna fall out of the final mix so fast.

AHD is a puzzle.  I respect the the rigor and early challenges they took on in scheduling.  But it's hard for me to imagine that giving up so many points, albeit to quality teams, has not affected their players.  A few losses are one thing, consistent blowouts are something else entirely. They are still a skilled team, making them dangerous.  Now they're licking their wounds, getting healthy during a bye week, and will be eyeballing/scouting Oxbridge down the road this week.   Already seasoned and tested in deep waters this year, they could be a minefield exploding on Oxbridge when they meet .... if their heads can completely erase the recent past, avoid mistakes, and execute their strengths against Ox vulnerabilities. 

Clearwater Academy International CAI has never shown up on my radar.   Target now designated on my screen.

Pace is in such a tough district that they will make the Chaminade game a real backyard dog fight.  With their momentum, I give Chaminade the nod.

Intriguing back-to-back games in the near future ....  First Ox-IMG, then TCA-IMG the following week, a double-edged sword for both 3A teams.  There's injury risk so late in the regular season (close to playoffs), then a chance to compare how both do against a single recent opponent.  I think both 3A teams will be at home for those games.  Except for Centennial CA, IMG has pretty much throttled all the other top ranked teams they've played, whether at home or on the road.

changing gears - were you army with that SPC handle?

[BrowardHandicapper]

If those 2 returning DL's at CCC make a truly noticeable difference, then matched with their Offensive weapons CCC'd be scary,  perhaps changing the entire 3A landscape.    But to me TCA is still the team to beat.  They've been there before and nothing beats that experience and ability to envision the post-season tension,  deal with it, and maintain focus.  Their coach is the anchor and am sure he's using each hiccup as an opportunity to identify faults, refine, correct, and work on execution.  I just don't think they're gonna fall out of the final mix so fast.

AHD is a puzzle.  I respect the the rigor and early challenges they took on in scheduling.  But it's hard for me to imagine that giving up so many points, albeit to quality teams, has not affected their players.  A few losses are one thing, consistent blowouts are something else entirely. They are still a skilled team, making them dangerous.  Now they're licking their wounds, getting healthy during a bye week, and will be eyeballing/scouting Oxbridge down the road this week.   Already seasoned and tested in deep waters this year, they could be a minefield exploding on Oxbridge when they meet .... if their heads can completely erase the recent past, avoid mistakes, and execute their strengths against Ox vulnerabilities. 

Clearwater Academy International CAI has never shown up on my radar.   Target now designated on my screen.

Pace is in such a tough district that they will make the Chaminade game a real backyard dog fight.  With their momentum, I give Chaminade the nod.

Intriguing back-to-back games in the near future ....  First Ox-IMG, then TCA-IMG the following week, a double-edged sword for both 3A teams.  There's injury risk so late in the regular season (close to playoffs), then a chance to compare how both do against a single recent opponent.  I think both 3A teams will be at home for those games.  Except for Centennial CA, IMG has pretty much throttled all the other top ranked teams they've played, whether at home or on the road.

changing gears - were you army with that SPC handle?

 

TCA is still the team to beat but the chinks in the armor are starting to show....I was just looking over some TCA box scores.   There is definitely something missing right now. Neither of their last 2 close games were flukes.  Lincoln versus TCA was almost an even played match right down the middle with Lincoln coming out the victor. This past weekend versus Lincoln,  TCA actually had to sustain a drive as Lincoln did a good job holding TCA to 114 passing yards. The Conquerors definitely ran the ball well versus Lincoln but what I have noticed with TCA they are winning primarily on huge plays this year.

 

When I saw the TCA Box score versus University Christian, I was surprised to see that University Christian actually ran 73 plays to TCA's 49.  UC held a 19-11 First Down advantage and dominated the time of possession 31 mins to 17mins. Only one lost fumble for UC versus 2 for TCA.  Overall,  the difference in the game was TCA's quick strike ability.  TDs of 64 yard run, 67 yard pass, 85 yard pass and a 50 yard pass with a QB that went 7-17 for 240 can be deceiving.

Even in the Columbia game  - 45 yard pass, 45 yard pass, 61 yard pass and QB goes 9-22 for 256. 

 

TCA better hope that those monster plays work versus IMG or even Pine Forest late season for that matter.

 

My 3A top 5 goes as follows for now:

 

Oxbridge Academy - Hardest schedule to date, 2 solid road wins, and have looked the most impressive. Little speed-bump this week for Oxbridge versus St. John Paul and they prepare for district rival AHD.

 

CCC - 4-0. Could be the best 3A team but for now, I'm sticking with 2016 resume. Nice wins but who have they really come against? CCC has yet to have been tested against a top 100 team in the state. 

TCA - Still not hitting stride but still very capable of repeating. Lost 2 close games to good teams.

Chaminade-Madonna -  Only loss was to a Cardinal Gibbons team that is looking better than anticipated in 5A.  Still as good as anyone on paper.

 

Trinity Catholic - MIght be a bit of a stretch here but held their own @ a pretty good Wakulla team.  I believe the Celtics handle a decent South Sumter team this week and prove their still in the mix in 3A.

 

Knocking at the door: Lakeland Christian, Berkley Prep, Tampa Catholic.

 

Under the radar/ keep an eye on: Melbourne Central Catholic, Florida State University

 

Don't count them out yet: Tampa Catholic, AHD, John Carroll, Cardinal Mooney, Cardinal Newman, Pensacola Catholic

 

Unknowns but worth mentioning: Taylor County, Holy Trinity Episcopal The First Academy, Episcopal School of Jacksonville

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't count them out: AHD, John Carroll, Cardinal Mooney, Cardinal Newman

[DisabledAccount]

In the Columbia game they beat us because they got big plays on our secondary and our offense could get no momentum

 

Trinity a good team and probley still favorite but are at risk to fall this year because a few teams will be able to match them talent wise and that pressure of being top dog in 3a for last 4 years and going for 5 is looking to be too much

 

I think Oxbridge wins 3a this year

[mbhs69]

Broward - nice info, especially the drill-down on TCA's O.   I see the "big plays" as TCA's ability to see or make opportunity when other things don't quite do it, as shown against good, bigger teams like UC and Lincoln ... and TCA seems to take advantage of that opportunity consistently in a game, even if their drives don't quite get in gear.   That's to the credit of the qb who sees it, and the wr's who maintain space on the route.  Clever like a fox without all the tools, TCA still finds a way ... so that's why I still see them on top of the heap, though vulnerable and susceptible to tough teams who really study them this year.  Quality 3A teams who could beat them need a wide variety of O tools, plus skilled special team s to rack points stay in the game, and drive a stake in, ... plus a  conditioned, excellent sustained defense to go the distance.  TCA D seems consistent, as columbiahighfan mentions that they stymied a good Columbia offense. 

Yep, CCC really hasn't been challenged yet, and I'd like to see what their D could do against another well-oiled offensive machine.  Just looked it up and overall their schedule could be tougher.   But they're accomplishing, putting up the points, and refining.

Oxbridge has 2 serious lines.  Both top-notch, particularly the DL.   Plus their best DB's out injured past 2 games and they still keep the door shut.  For some reason I don't think their offense has fully developed yet, and they could be scary good if a decisive go-to weapon arises.  As an aside, lotsa local chatter the past few years pushing an Oxbridge - Dwyer non-district matchup, both schools down the same street from each other.  This year would be a great matchup given the quality of both teams.

Chaminade - lol - like that high-strung fast horse at the track who will either break your bank and heart, or make ya rich.   At Pace next, this game will show a lot.  Thinkin it'll be a street fight.  My friend watches them and he feels they're another big play team, on both sides of the ball.  Might head over to catch it if my work sched allows.

[BrowardHandicapper]

Broward - nice info, especially the drill-down on TCA's O.   I see the "big plays" as TCA's ability to see or make opportunity when other things don't quite do it, as shown against good, bigger teams like UC and Lincoln ... and TCA seems to take advantage of that opportunity consistently in a game, even if their drives don't quite get in gear.   That's to the credit of the qb who sees it, and the wr's who maintain space on the route.  Clever like a fox without all the tools, TCA still finds a way ... so that's why I still see them on top of the heap, though vulnerable and susceptible to tough teams who really study them this year.  Quality 3A teams who could beat them need a wide variety of O tools, plus skilled special team s to rack points stay in the game, and drive a stake in, ... plus a  conditioned, excellent sustained defense to go the distance.  TCA D seems consistent, as columbiahighfan mentions that they stymied a good Columbia offense. 

Yep, CCC really hasn't been challenged yet, and I'd like to see what their D could do against another well-oiled offensive machine.  Just looked it up and overall their schedule could be tougher.   But they're accomplishing, putting up the points, and refining.

Oxbridge has 2 serious lines.  Both top-notch, particularly the DL.   Plus their best DB's out injured past 2 games and they still keep the door shut.  For some reason I don't think their offense has fully developed yet, and they could be scary good if a decisive go-to weapon arises.  As an aside, lotsa local chatter the past few years pushing an Oxbridge - Dwyer non-district matchup, both schools down the same street from each other.  This year would be a great matchup given the quality of both teams.

Chaminade - lol - like that high-strung fast horse at the track who will either break your bank and heart, or make ya rich.   At Pace next, this game will show a lot.  Thinkin it'll be a street fight.  My friend watches them and he feels they're another big play team, on both sides of the ball.  Might head over to catch it if my work sched allows.

I hear you with the Oxbridge the Offense but I also believe they have faced 2 of the better Defenses in the state in Flanagan and Carol City.  Those kind of teams can definitely put your Offense in check.  Lakeland can verify that.  

I believe the Oxbridge Offense is the kind of team (and has the kind of Coach as well ) that plays a lot of possession, rarely goes for a home run and relies more on the numbers game that eventually they have the athletes that could turn an expected 4 yard play into a 25 yard play.  They are a very well coached efficient team.

 

I believe Dwyer will gladly line up to play Oxbridge as soon as the program goes way down.  

 

Good call with Chaminade they do seem to be struggling for a little identity right now.  Not necessarily in a bad way, but it is almost as if the the team is still adjusting to the curve of the new HC Dameon Jones. I believe they get better as the year goes on.

[mbhs69]

Ox seems to be an upper classmen-heavy team, so yeah, there could be a drop coming in the next few years.  Read about some upheaval that the school steered emphasis away from sports to strict academic rigor.   Then many good players left the school this past summer, leaving just a core with a beef to collect on.  So this has to be their opportunity year before the program could slide.  Some call that incentive.

[DisabledAccount]

Ox seems to be an upper classmen-heavy team, so yeah, there could be a drop coming in the next few years. Read about some upheaval that the school steered emphasis away from sports to academic rigor. Then many good players left the school this past summer, leaving just a core with a beef to collect on. So this has to be their opportunity year before the program could slide. Some call that incentive.

If they win state then more will transfer in to fill the gaps

[BrowardHandicapper]

If they win state then more will transfer in to fill the gaps

[DisabledAccount]

You disagree?

[BrowardHandicapper]

You disagree?

  I just think the new transfer rules might change things a little next year in PB County.  

[DisabledAccount]

I just think the new transfer rules might change things a little next year in PB County.

Don't you think the most successful teams will get the most transfers?

[BrowardHandicapper]

Don't you think the most successful teams will get the most transfers?

Not neccessarily.   I talked about the fact and backed it up with clear cut proof there are people out there jealous and wanting to destroy what Oxbridge has built.  I'll just leave it at that.

[Cat_Scratch]

Oxbridge                    Fla Rank       Score  

@ Flanagan                21                W 7-6

Carol City                    16                W 14-7

Royal Palm                  238              W 41-0

@ West Orange          193               W 49-7

St. John Paul II            376

American Heritage       64

IMG Academy             1

American                     210

Everglades                  381

 

Trinity Christian A.       Fla rank      Score

@ Cocoa                     9                 L  26-23 OT

Columbia                     141             W 34-0

University Christ          71               W 31-23

Lincoln                         34               L  25-22

@ Providence              244

Godby                         163

Duval Charter              492

IMG Academy             1

@ Episcopal Sch         188

@ Pine Forest             47

 

Both play a fairly decent schedule.

Oxbridge has the advantage going in and is ranked 6th, while TCA is ranked 30th by Maxpreps.

Should be interesting to see IMG scores. Teams may line up differently. Strengths and weaknesses don't always mean a team will win when they are considered a better team. Both of TCA's losses were by less than 3 points. That is only a dropped pass, or a first down difference.

[mbhs69]

Ox @ Flanagan, W, 7-6

Ox - CC, W, 14-7

Ox - RPB, W, 41-0

Ox @ W Orange, W, 49-7

Believe ya had IMG scores instead.

I'd sure like to hear IMG's post-game comparative takes on Ox and TCA after both games. 

Then again, the scores may say it all.

[peezy28]

I don't think CCC will be battle tested come playoff time.  They are a very talented team though. 

[Cat_Scratch]

Ox @ Flanagan, W, 7-6

Ox - CC, W, 14-7

Ox - RPB, W, 41-0

Ox @ W Orange, W, 49-7

Believe ya had IMG scores instead.

I'd sure like to hear IMG's post-game comparative takes on Ox and TCA after both games. 

Then again, the scores may say it all.

Probably... I have to fix it... lol.

Good catch.