Wekiva at Apopka

[badbird]

I was told last week that even if Wekiva lost they would be the district champ but that is not the case.  I just ran the points and it appears if Apopka beats Wekiva they will edge them out for the district title with 42.4 or 41.9 points to Wekiva's 41.6.  Since it would be a three way tie with West Orange it goes to points.

 

This should be a great high school atmosphere.  I expect over 5k there to see it.  I will take Apopka 14-13.  Any thoughts?  

[DarterBlue2]

18 minutes ago, badbird said:

I was told last week that even if Wekiva lost they would be the district champ but that is not the case.  I just ran the points and it appears if Apopka beats Wekiva they will edge them out for the district title with 42.4 or 41.9 points to Wekiva's 41.6.  Since it would be a three way tie with West Orange it goes to points.

 

This should be a great high school atmosphere.  I expect over 5k there to see it.  I will take Apopka 14-13.  Any thoughts?  

I like Apopka, but this may reflect my bias. I don't know. If we go solely on how the teams have played this year, Wekiva is the favorite. Not by much, but they would be favored. With that said, Wekiva has made the playoffs only twice in their relatively short existence and have exited in the first round both times. I think Apopka's tradition and experience in big game situations and late season games of critical importance helps them gut out a very close win. 

To do so, in my opinion, Apopka will need to have its best defensive game of the year and score at least 17 points.

[DisabledAccount]

25 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

I like Apopka, but this may reflect my bias. I don't know. If we go solely on how the teams have played this year, Wekiva is the favorite. Not by much, but they would be favored. With that said, Wekiva has made the playoffs only twice in their relatively short existence and have exited in the first round both times. I think Apopka's tradition and experience in big game situations and late season games of critical importance helps them gut out a very close win. 

To do so, in my opinion, Apopka will need to have its best defensive game of the year and score at least 17 points.

You all better win

 

 

I need some separation from broward in the pickems lol 

 

[badbird]

Apopka is favored by 1 according to Pinkos.  If you just look at scores one would think Wekiva would be a small favorite.  I think their inability to score a bunch of points early in the season hurts their computer rankings because they didn't blow teams out.  

 

Wekiva is only averaging 272 yards per game.  Apopka is averaging 397.1  The interior of Wekiva's defense is their strong point (3 D1 underclass D-lineman) and I also think their secondary is pretty good.  Apopka will need to wear down the Wekiva defense by having long drives and then hit them with an occasional play action to keep them honest and possibly get a big play in the passing game.  Apopka can't get put in second or third and long and penalties will probably kill any drive.  I think it will be low scoring but If I'm a betting man I'm betting on Coach D to find a way. 

 

[DarterBlue2]

29 minutes ago, badbird said:

Apopka is favored by 1 according to Pinkos.  If you just look at scores one would think Wekiva would be a small favorite.  I think their inability to score a bunch of points early in the season hurts their computer rankings because they didn't blow teams out.  

 

Wekiva is only averaging 272 yards per game.  Apopka is averaging 397.1  The interior of Wekiva's defense is their strong point (3 D1 underclass D-lineman) and I also think their secondary is pretty good.  Apopka will need to wear down the Wekiva defense by having long drives and then hit them with an occasional play action to keep them honest and possibly get a big play in the passing game.  Apopka can't get put in second or third and long and penalties will probably kill any drive.  I think it will be low scoring but If I'm a betting man I'm betting on Coach D to find a way. 

 

Wekiva's very strong defensive interior will mean Apopka will have trouble running the ball effectively if they just run their bread and butter plays. Third and long will kill Apopka drives. It is critical to have third and short situations if Apopka is going to move the ball and eat clock, which they will need to do to limit Wekiva's offensive production. 

On defense, Apopka also needs to pressure Wekiva's QB. He can burn you with his legs and has a decent intermediate ball if you give him time to throw it. 

[badbird]

Wekiva 13-0 middle of second quarter.  Long pass set up first score.  Pick 6 for the second.  Apopka has one first down.  Wekiva’s defense has dominated so far

[badbird]

19-14 Wekiva early 4th.  Blocked punt returned for TD.  Wekiva has two td’s off defense and special teams.  Apopka responded with  long drive

[badbird]

Apopka had the ball inside the 10 and got a hold and a personal foul.  Wekiva gets great field position and looking to run out the clock

[badbird]

Wekiva FG.  22-14 Wekiva 2 minutes left.  

[badbird]

Wekiva wins.  Apopka got inside the 20 and completed a pass to the 2 but a penalty brought it back

[DarterBlue2]

I don't usually complain much about the officials as things usually even out. But there were a couple of blatant non-calls against Wekiva which should have been pass interference or holding, including one late in the game where Zion Hill was literally brought down by the Wekiva defender before the ball got there. There was also a strange delay of game call against Apopka after they had just gotten a first down on its final drive. They had not even gotten up to the line of scrimmage and the flag was thrown. 

Wekiva is a very good team, especially defensively. Two of their three touchdowns, though, were off special teams and a pick six. However, I am not sure they are better than Apopka. Give them credit, they finally got the win. If Apopka makes the playoffs and sees them again, I think the scores will be reversed. 

[badbird]

Delay of game was called because they snapped the ball before the whistle had blown to put it into play.  I agree Apopka got the worst end of the penalties but they had their chance to win and mistakes cost them