The 12 Best 6A-8A Programs and Why

[OldSchoolLion]

These teams have all of the following: consistent winning seasons, consistent playoff performance and coaching stability.  It's interesting that when one reads about teams in the rankings, it's ALL about individual athletes and rarely a peep about the quality of coaching, tradition of the program, or team continuity (how well the players play together and leverage each other's strengths).  Look at Columbus in 8A.  They rarely get recognized by the polls,  but consistently outperform some schools that do and that are more talented on paper.   

Columbus (8A)

30-9 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win each of past 7 seasons

17-7 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Chris Merritt-17 seasons as head coach

 

Apopka (8A)

30-7 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win in 5 of past 6 seasons

16-5 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Rick Darlington-12 seasons as head coach

 

Osceola (8A)

33-4 over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win in 5 of past 6 seasons

16-7 in playoff games over past 8 seasons

Doug Nichols-8 seasons as head coach

 

Dr Phillips (8A)

34-9 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win each of past 12 seasons

18-6 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Rodney Wells-7 seasons as head coach

 

St Thomas Aquinas (7A)

38-6 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win each of past 22 seasons

27-3 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Roger Harriott-3 seasons as head coach

 

Dwyer (7A)

32-7 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win in 15 out of past 16 seasons

12-5 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Jack Daniels-22 seasons as head coach

 

Plant (7A)

34-7 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win each of past 12 seasons

18-6 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Robert Weiner-14 seasons as head coach

 

Bartram Trail (7A)

28-13 overall record over past 3 seasons

2 or more playoff wins in 5 of the past 6 seasons

14-6 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Darrell Sutherland-18 seasons as head coach

 

Mainland (6A)

30-8 overall record over past 8 seasons

At least one playoff win in 18 of past 20 seasons 

16-7 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Scott Wilson-8 seasons as head coach 

 

Armwood (6A)

38-4 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win each of past 18 seasons (including forfeits)

24-6 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Evan Davis-1 season as head coach (took over for 27-year hc Sean Callahan)

 

Miami Central (6A)

26-8 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win in 9 of past 10 seasons 

25-2 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Roland Smith-5 seasons as head coach

 

Naples (6A)

30-6 overall record over past 3 seasons

At least one playoff win each of past 8 seasons 

14-7 in playoff games over past 7 seasons

Bill Kramer-20 seasons as head coach

Note: I can hear the moaning already about having Naples on the list  instead of Northwestern or Carol City, especially after Northwestern absolutely manhandled Naples last year in the playoffs.  The issue with NW and CC is one of consistency.  When they are "on" they are tough to beat.  But over this past decade, their performance has been hit-and-miss.  Naples, although not always a juggernaut, is consistently a good to very good performer and their program has excellent continuity in the coaching ranks.

[Cjm04]

In a down year Northwestern, CC, AND Norland would destroy most of your list.

[DisabledAccount]

12 minutes ago, Cjm04 said:

In a down year Northwestern, CC, AND Norland would destroy most of your list.

I think he was just listing best teams in each region 

 

He will realize soon that bartram trail isn't best in 7a region 1 and that will be their only state run for a while 

[OldSchoolLion]

4 minutes ago, Cjm04 said:

In a down year Northwestern, CC, AND Norland would destroy most of your list.

To support your opinion I would like to see some supporting facts.   In other words, I would like to see some examples of strong teams that those 3 destroyed when they were having down years.  I struggle to find any such examples.

Let's just talk about the Bulls for now.  

In 2015, the Bulls had a down year and lost to both Dwyer and Columbus.  

In 2014 the Bulls had a down year and ...

Beat a good but not great Raines 8-7 

Beat a 6win-6loss Ely  23-20

Beat 3 win-7loss Homestead 17-7

Beat 4win-7loss Carol City 26-20

Lost to a 3win-6loss Norland team

Lost 17-7 to a good but not great Glades Central

Lost 44-15 to a 6-5 Jackson

 

[Dan in Daytona]

Not to nitpick OldSchoolLion but Mainland is 16-7 over last 7 yrs. in playoffs. FHSAA Record Book is incorrect. Though, I appreciate your work. 

2011- 3 wins, lost to Miami Central - State Champ (stripped).

2012- 2  wins, lost to Naples

2013- 3 wins, lost to Miami Central- State Champ

2014- 3 wins, lost to Miami Central- State Champ 

2015- 2 wins, lost to Miami Central- State Champ

2016- 2 wins, lost to Miami Carol Cty- State Champ

2017- 1 win,  lost to Miami Carol Cty

7 years - 16 wins

[OldSchoolLion]

16 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I think he was just listing best teams in each region 

 

He will realize soon that bartram trail isn't best in 7a region 1 and that will be their only state run for a while 

I did not mean to say those are necessarily the 4 best teams in each class this year.  But from a historical perspective this decade, I think those are the 4 best, most consistent programs in each class.  And until their programs show a marked decline, I think they should be considered amongst the potential favorites each year, regardless of how many players they have with lots of stars after their names.

Concerning Bartram Trail...it has made deep runs in 2007, 2011, 2013 and 2017, and has one of the most seasoned head coaches in the state.  They are no flash in the pan. I also get the impression the program has good support behind it.  St John's County is one of the wealthiest counties in the state.   It is hard for me to bet against them, even when another team looks better on paper.  What 7A R1 team has anywhere near 14 playoff wins over the past 7 seasons? 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

23 minutes ago, Dan in Daytona said:

Not to nitpick OldSchoolLion but Mainland is 16-7 over last 7 yrs. in playoffs. FHSAA Record Book is incorrect. Though, I appreciate your work. 

2011- 3 wins, lost to Miami Central - State Champ (stripped).

2012- 2  wins, lost to Naples

2013- 3 wins, lost to Miami Central- State Champ

2014- 3 wins, lost to Miami Central- State Champ 

2015- 2 wins, lost to Miami Central- State Champ

2016- 2 wins, lost to Miami Carol Cty- State Champ

2017- 1 win,  lost to Miami Carol Cty

7 years - 16 wins

Dan, I always appreciate people correcting me on any "facts" I post that are wrong. I'll fix that in the original post.    

[Cjm04]

Ok, most consistent, I can definitely agree on.

[OldSchoolLion]

I looked back on records from this decade for the 12 teams above.  Something impressive about them is that they were almost always "in the game," even when they lost.  Blowouts were very rare, and then it was against teams that were at the top of their game and one of the top-ranked teams in the state at the time.     

[Pipe Dreams]

DP tried to schedule Northwestern in 2016... pretty sure we didn’t back out.

 

[OldSchoolLion]

9 minutes ago, Pipe Dreams said:

DP tried to schedule Northwestern in 2016... pretty sure we didn’t back out.

 

DP against any of the big-name Miami-Dade schools would be a treat.

[DisabledAccount]

So why was a team like Lakeland who constantly among top 7a teams not listed? 

[OldSchoolLion]

7 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So why was a team like Lakeland who constantly among top 7a teams not listed? 

Lakeland is 8-7 in playoff games over the past 7 seasons, and 5-6 over the past 6 seasons.  None of those playoff wins was against a team ranked in the top 40 in Fl (per Maxpreps).  We have to go back 25-30 years to find such a bad stretch for Lakeland.  Signs are pointing toward the program being on the decline this decade.    I hope that is not the case.    

[OldSchoolLion]

34 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So why was a team like Lakeland who constantly among top 7a teams not listed? 

...another data point concerning possible decline of Lakeland.  Between 1992-2012, Kathleen never beat Lakeland.  Kathleen has won 2 of the past 5 years, including a win in 2016 when Kathleen finished a mediocre 5-5.

[Guest]

Lakeland was outed in the 1st and 2nd round by the same team 3 years in a row(2012,2013, and 2014). I think it was some home  grown school from Kissimmee...but I could be wrong

[OldSchoolLion]

30 minutes ago, Just A Coach said:

Lakeland was outed in the 1st and 2nd round by the same team 3 years in a row(2012,2013, and 2014). I think it was some home  grown school from Kissimmee...but I could be wrong

I think you are right.  Heard they have lots of Kows in that neck of the woods.

[OldSchoolLion]

15 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I think he was just listing best teams in each region 

 

He will realize soon that bartram trail isn't best in 7a region 1 and that will be their only state run for a while 

Mr ColumbiaFan...I know how much you love Bartram Trail.  If you are implying that Columbia is the best 7A team in those parts....well, Columbia needs to show me they can win on the road in the playoffs.  Over the past 15 seasons in "away" playoff games your team is 5-8 and allowed 24 or more points in 7 of those games.   

Playoff games vs teams to the east(Jacksonville) 0-1 

Playoff games vs teams to the west(Tallahassee/Panhandle) 2-3  

Playoff games vs teams to the south 3-4 

I guess if they play an away playoff game with a team from north of you the odds might be in your favor.  

 

[DisabledAccount]

55 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Mr ColumbiaFan...I know how much you love Bartram Trail.  If you are implying that Columbia is the best 7A team in those parts....well, Columbia needs to show me they can win on the road in the playoffs.  Over the past 15 seasons in "away" playoff games your team is 5-8 and allowed 24 or more points in 7 of those games.   

Playoff games vs teams to the east(Jacksonville) 0-1 

Playoff games vs teams to the west(Tallahassee/Panhandle) 2-3  

Playoff games vs teams to the south 3-4 

I guess if they play an away playoff game with a team from north of you the odds might be in your favor.  

 

Bartram trail didn't play a single road playoff game last year until state championships 

 

What evidence can you prove that they would have won had they had to travel to plant,  lakeland or viera? 

 

My argument that we are better than Bartram Trail has more to do with the fact that in our wins over Bartram we were a far more dominant team in those games

 

Yes the playoff record is 2-2 but lets look at the wins

 

 

Columbia's wins were by 21 and 37 points 

 

Bartram trail wins were by 3 and 5 points

 

You speak about these teams listed rarely being blown out 

 

We have 2 separate playoff performances when we beat Bartram Trail by at least 3 scores

 

In fact in back to back games in 2015 we handed Lincoln and Bartram Trail their worst playoff defeats in program history, including beating lincoln by 37 points ON THE ROAD 

 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

BYou speak about these teams listed rarely being blown out 

We have 2 separate playoff performances when we beat Bartram Trail by at least 3 scores

In fact in back to back games in 2015 we handed Lincoln and Bartram Trail their worst playoff defeats in program history, including beating lincoln by 37 points ON THE ROAD 

 

 

Above I made the statement, "Blowouts were very rare, and then it was against teams that were at the top of their game and one of the top-ranked teams in the state at the time."  In 2015, Columbia had a very strong team that made the state semis and were ranked #16 overall in FL.  Likewise, in 2012, Columbia had a strong team that finished 11-2 with those 2 losses by a combined total of 10 points...and they were ranked #15 overall in the state.   To Columbia's credit, not many teams have beaten Bartram Trail that badly, and it speaks to the quality of their teams those years.  That aligns with my statement.  IMO Columbia was on top of their game those years and was one of the top-ranked teams. 

   

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Bartram trail didn't play a single road playoff game last year until state championships 

What evidence can you prove that they would have won had they had to travel to plant,  lakeland or viera? 

My argument that we are better than Bartram Trail has more to do with the fact that in our wins over Bartram we were a far more dominant team in those games

Yes the playoff record is 2-2 but lets look at the wins

Columbia's wins were by 21 and 37 points 

Bartram trail wins were by 3 and 5 points

 

Columbia could have beaten BT by 40+ points those years and it would not change the "bigger picture."   Concerning my evaluation above, the purpose was to evaluate consistency and determine which teams are "safe bets" to be in the playoff hunt in future years based on multiple years of experience/data.  Because a team is on the list, it does not mean that they could have beaten/would beat a certain other team in any particular year this decade. 

Columbia has had a couple of great years this decade, but their playoff performance has been inconsistent.  That does not mean they won't win the state title this year.  But I am not going to put money on them since I like safer bets.   Since you mention road playoff wins, BT is 10-9 during the same time frame that Columbia was 5-8.  That does not mean BT would have won a road playoff game last year, nor does it mean they could have beaten Columbia on the road any year this decade.  It does point to them being a more consistent team on the road in the playoffs.  I am sure you can pick that apart if you want, ie show how BT played easier road games than Col over the past 15 years.