Classes Where Upsets are Most Likely

[LAZ 83]

Looking at the 2019 Playoff Field, here is a mathematical ranking (most to least) of the classes where the most upsets are likely to occur during the course of the tournament. 

Class 6A        Std Dev 8.78

Class 8A        Std Dev 9.16

Class 5A        Std Dev 9.72

Class 1A        Std Dev 11.46

Class 7A        Std Dev 11.69

Class 3A        Std Dev 14.90

Class 4A        Std Dev 15.01

Class 2A        Std Dev 15.82

It should also be noted that looking at the first round only, Class 1A may experience the most upsets. 

[badbird 1,338]

6A and 8A are the weakest two largest classes with the most parity.  No super great teams.  Both are wide open and 10-12 teams could win a state title.

[LAZ 83]

As expected, 8A is the only class where no #1 seeds made it to the Final Four. 

[Vaquero 13]

On 11/6/2019 at 5:28 PM, badbird said:

6A and 8A are the weakest two largest classes with the most parity.  No super great teams.  Both are wide open and 10-12 teams could win a state title.

Weakest or most competitive?

[badbird 1,338]

10 hours ago, Vaquero said:

Weakest or most competitive?

both for 8A however 6A may have turned into being not competitive with Miami Central apparently back

 

I wouldn't call 6A competetive last round.  All blowouts and 3 running clocks

 

Gaither won by 34 with a running clock

Escambia won by 26

Miami Central won by 35 with a running clock

Palmetto won by 37 with a running clock

 

[OldSchoolLion 1,576]

6A region semis were most competitive of any class....5/8 games decided by a TD or less

[badbird 1,338]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

6A region semis were most competitive of any class....5/8 games decided by a TD or less

But regional finals were probably the biggest blowouts. Maybe the rpi got it wrong 

[OldSchoolLion 1,576]

9 minutes ago, badbird said:

But regional finals were probably the biggest blowouts. Maybe the rpi got it wrong 

No doubt they were.  Last year it was 7A regional finals with all of the blowouts.  With all of these classes and teams in the playoffs, no matter how we slice pie we are liable to end with a class that has blowouts even as deep as the regionals.