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LAZ

Game Scoring Margins - Try Again

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I tried to post this earlier but couldn't access it afterward on "The Huddle". Just call me the Ultimate Sausage Fingered Fossil. 

I've been diving into this topic in attempt to correlate if we have an excess of "game mismatches" created by having too many classifications. I have come up with the data and my own thoughts and I'm interested in hearing from others regarding this topic. Here's what I've looked at:

In 2019, Florida high schools played 2636 regular season games amongst one another. The final scoring margins in those games average 23.6 with a median of 21. The questions are:                                  "What is the norm?" From a fan's perspective, do we want to attend games knowing in advance that one team is 3 touchdowns better than their opponent?  Digging deeper, I looked at the distribution and found that even though our Florida Game Average Margin and Median number is somewhere between 21-23 points, only 6% of the games fell into this range! Then using this knowledge, I came up with a chart showing Florida Game Competitiveness. As a result, I determined that from my perspective as a fan, there are probably less than 30% of the games that I would really be interested in watching from the standpoint of competitiveness. I expect differences of opinion but I can also tell you, I did the same thing using all levels of college football and the average margins are 4 points closer which is a considerable amount.  

Score Margin My Perspective     # Games      Pct.
1-7 pts Great Game 527  0.2003041
8-13 pts Good Game 324 0.1231471
14-20 pts Somewhat 378 0.1436716
21-23 pts Blah - Fla Avg. 171 0.0649943
24 -31 pts Ugly 383 0.1455720
32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 0.2345116
46+ pts Puke 236 0.0896997
       
  BREAKDOWN    
       
Margin # Games Frequency Cumulative
1 84 0.03187 0.03187
2 43 0.01631 0.04818
3 84 0.03187 0.08005
4 58 0.02200 0.10205
5 47 0.01783 0.11988
6 82 0.03111 0.15099
7 129 0.04894 0.19992
8 77 0.02921 0.22914
9 25 0.00948 0.23862
10 67 0.02542 0.26404
11 45 0.01707 0.28111
12 54 0.02049 0.30159
13 56 0.02124 0.32284
14 90 0.03414 0.35698
15 53 0.02011 0.37709
16 39 0.01480 0.39188
17 40 0.01517 0.40706
18 51 0.01935 0.42640
19 34 0.01290 0.43930
20 71 0.02693 0.46624
21 91 0.03452 0.50076
22 42 0.01593 0.51669
23 38 0.01442 0.53111
24 48 0.01821 0.54932
25 41 0.01555 0.56487
26 43 0.01631 0.58118
27 50 0.01897 0.60015
28 77 0.02921 0.62936
29 46 0.01745 0.64681
30 43 0.01631 0.66313
31 35 0.01328 0.67640
32 39 0.01480 0.69120
33 33 0.01252 0.70372
34 39 0.01480 0.71851
35 105 0.03983 0.75835
36 61 0.02314 0.78149
37 42 0.01593 0.79742
38 43 0.01631 0.81373
39 29 0.01100 0.82473
40 40 0.01517 0.83991
41 56 0.02124 0.86115
42 60 0.02276 0.88392
43 30 0.01138 0.89530
44 21 0.00797 0.90326
45 19 0.00721 0.91047
46 20 0.00759 0.91806
47 18 0.00683 0.92489
48 23 0.00873 0.93361
49 29 0.01100 0.94461
50 18 0.00683 0.95144
51 10 0.00379 0.95524
52 12 0.00455 0.95979
53 10 0.00379 0.96358
54 8 0.00303 0.96662
55 13 0.00493 0.97155
56 16 0.00607 0.97762
57 8 0.00303 0.98065
58 12 0.00455 0.98520
59 3 0.00114 0.98634
60 3 0.00114 0.98748
61 3 0.00114 0.98862
62 8 0.00303 0.99165
63 5 0.00190 0.99355
64 2 0.00076 0.99431
65 1 0.00038 0.99469
66 1 0.00038 0.99507
67 2 0.00076 0.99583
68 1 0.00038 0.99621
69 1 0.00038 0.99659
70 0 0.00000 0.99659
71 1 0.00038 0.99697
72 2 0.00076 0.99772
73 1 0.00038 0.99810
74 1 0.00038 0.99848
75 1 0.00038 0.99886
76 0 0.00000 0.99886
77 1 0.00038 0.99924
78 0 0.00000 0.99924
79 0 0.00000 0.99924
80 0 0.00000 0.99924
81 0 0.00000 0.99924
82 0 0.00000 0.99924
83 0 0.00000 0.99924
84 1 0.00038 0.99962
85 0 0.00000 0.99962
86 0 0.00000 0.99962
87 0 0.00000 0.99962
88 1 0.00038 1.00000

 

 

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

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So...I guess I'm the only one who feels that 1236 of our 2636 in-state games (47%) are mismatches and not entertaining.

Unless of course, you are a parent or school affiliate of the subject combatants. Basically, half of our games are not competitive. 

Or maybe, this is just my lame attempt at being Nolebullish on Florida high school football. 

Personally, I love Florida high school football. It would just be nice to see more competitive games.  

Anyway, there's more to come on this topic after the championships.

 

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OK. I'm just looking for some feedback. Tell me to "hit the road" or whatever.  Here is a comparison of both college and our Fla. high school scoring margins and my opinion of game interest based on those margins. The college data reflects all 4189 FBS, FCS, D2, D3 and NAIA games in 2019, including interdivisional play (FBS vs FCS, etc.)

College 4189 Games    
       
Score Margin My Interest Games Pct
1-7 pts Great Game 1188 28%
8-13 pts Good Game 525 13%
14-20 pts Somewhat 668 16%
21-23 pts Blah - So-So 248 6%
24 -31 pts Ugly 583 14%
32 - 45 pts Very Bad 658 16%
46+ pts Puke 319

8%

Florida HS       2636 games

     
Score Margin My Interest Games Pct
1-7 pts Great Game 527 20%
8-13 pts Good Game 324 12%
14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14%
21-23 pts Blah - So-So 171 6%
24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15%
32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23%

46+ pts

Puke 236 9%
     
As you can see, college games decided by 20 points or less is 57% as compared to our schools 46%. This is a huge difference in competitiveness.        
       
       
       
       
       
       
     

 

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Not sure how you could fix this unless you use a relegation system and make large districts.  Florida football is down and you have a select few stacked teams.  It's not as fun or entertaining for me as it was  15-20 years ago.

 

80% of the games are more than 1 score which is why it is easy to have a high percentage when picking games

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Promotion/Relegation would help. I look at a school like Wolfson (Jacksonville), they played a schedule where the teams were a combined 31-70 and went 7-3 against them. They could have been 10-0 and the reality is, I am ok with it. Wolfson is bad and has struggled for the past 10 years. They were competitive. If you had shown me their schedule, I would have thought it was a fair schedule for a team of Wolfson's ability. And that is what we need to encourage. 

Most teams should be able to look at their 10 game schedule and see 2-3 games that are cupcakes, 2-3 games that are stretch games against teams that are better, but on a perfect night, you can beat them. The remainder should be competitive games. 
 
I don't think large districts helps because you can't hide from the tough opponent then. 
Out of the 16 State-Finals last week, 6 of them were still decided by more than 20 points. At this point in the year, you would expect the games to be closer. Now, that still means 10 were less than that which is good, but even the next 2 weeks, how many of the 8 state championship games will be decided by more than 20?

 

 

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Scheduling issues that make it difficult to come up with an ideal schedule:

1.  District games.   You gotta play them, regardless of how good or bad the other teams in the district are. 

2.  County involvement.   Are there any other counties, besides Hillsborough, that control scheduling for all public schools in the county?  If not, this is only an issue in Hillsborough.   Even still, the non-district schedule for any given year is based in part on how well the various teams did the year before.

3.  Track records.  Speaking of 'how the teams did the year before,' if a team did well and is returning most of its starters (especially at key positions like QB), you can assume that team will do well again next year, when you're trying to schedule them (or avoid scheduling them).  Other times, it's very difficult to know how good or bad a team is going to be from one year to the next.   Example: it probably didn't take a rocket scientist to determine that Edgewater was going to be good again this season after going 12-2 last year.   But how many predicted that they would go 9-3 overall (8-2 in regular season) in 2017 after going 1-10 in 2016?   Or, how many would have predicted Plant would go 4-6 this year after going 11-2, 12-2, and 13-1 the prior 3 seasons?    Especially for public schools, and even more so in this new open-transfer era, where 2 or 3 players can make the difference in a 3-7 season or a 7-3 season, how do you know for sure what you're getting when you're trying to make out schedules -- especially if you're trying to make them out more than a year in advance? 

Food for thought. 

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On 12/3/2019 at 9:02 PM, LAZ said:

Score Margin My Perspective     # GamesPct.

1-7 pts Great Game 527  0.2003041

8-13 pts Good Game 324 0.1231471

14-20 pts Somewhat 378 0.1436716

21-23 pts Blah - Fla Avg. 171 0.0649943

24 -31 pts Ugly 383 0.1455720 32 -

45 pts Very Bad 617 0.2345116

46+ pts Puke 236 0.0896997

Interestingly that the number of games that were great or good, 851, is almost the same as the number of games that were very bad or puke, 853. The total of the four category extremes, 1,704,  is much greater than the 942 total games for the three middle categories.

From my perspective, both the great and good games are well worth seeing, as I feel that on any given night, those games could have ended with the other team winning. Very troubling are the number of games that are puke and very bad. In my opinion, these are only partially caused by the number of classes we currently have (the watering down effect). Equally responsible, in my opinion is the creating of stacked teams which now occurs in much greater frequency in the larger metro areas. While this partially results from the watering down of transfer policies, it is also caused by coaching staffs recognizing that to make deep playoff runs they must "actively recruit" to keep up with other schools that do so.

Realizing that they cannot compete, in Miami-Dade, a number of schools with 8A and 7A enrollments have now opted for independent status, as many cannot make the playoffs and others that were in districts with weaker schools realize that they would be one and done even when they do make the playoffs. While none of the Orlando area large schools have yet followed suit, based on performance over the past decade, many have a great case for doing so as they routinely get blown out by 30 points or more. 

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I agree with all of these posts but I'm still trying to determine why we have so many classifications. For example -

In 2019, there were 1362 games played between opponents from different classifications. That is nearly 52% of all our in-state games!

As most of you know, I have been tracking these interclass games since 2003 but never have we played as many as we did this year. And the number is growing. Five years ago, we played 1091 and I was asking the same question back then.

More concerning to me is that the Higher Classed school wins about 55% of the time and only 52% if we remove Independents from the equation. If there is this little difference, why have eight? 

I have the breakdown which I'll soon be posting,

Thanks  

 

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