Apopka at Dr. Phillips

[DarterBlue2]

For the second week in a row, we have Monday night games in the greater Orlando area. This one is another make up game that was postponed due to Irma. 

The game has lost a little of its luster due to both teams playing their second game after only two and three days off for Apopka and DP, respectively. To add to that, both schools have important district games this Friday and in the case of Apopka it is homecoming week. Despite all of this, it is still, by far, the biggest game in the area this evening.  

Apopka comes into it off a facile victory over Mandarin. However, the team is somewhat banged up from both the Mandarin and Evans games, and several key pieces of the offense are doubtful for this evening. To add to this, the West Orange game this Friday presents a much bigger challenge for Apopka than the Freedom game presents for DP. And, while all games now count, clearly winning the district is of paramount importance for the Darters. Should they lose to WO, then they would. in all likelihood need a win against Wekiva to force a three way tie for District champion (I am assuming that the old rules for determining DC still apply and that points at the end of the season would not automatically determine the champ; I could be wrong as I have not checked).  

With all of the above in mind, there is some incentive for Apopka to be conservative in this game.

My overall take on the game is this. I have pretty good knowledge of what Apopka will bring on offense. With regards DP, their overall defense seems a little down from the past two years. In particular, in the OC University game, they seems susceptible to both the intermediate and deep pass. However, Apopka, aside from the Lakeland game, has not passed much. So I assume it will follow its tradition and rely on its running game. DP's run stop defense is very solid (not as down as its secondary). It shut down Linguard in the University game, which was no small feat. It also kept Wekiva in check for most of Thursday's game (not as great an accomplishment). However,  with that said, Apopka has a better, more varied rushing attack than either OC University or Wekiva. So, it should be able to get some decent rushing yards against DP. The question is will it be enough. 

My take is that Apopka will need 28 to 35 points to beat DP. While its defense is decent overall, it does not seem to be outstanding. This goes for both the secondary and front 7. On the other hand, I don't think DP's offense is dynamic enough on offense to score more than mid 20s on the current Apopka defense. 

I expect this to be an interesting game that could have a replay in the state semis, though both teams will have to go through some tough competition to get there (DP against Osceola, Vero Beach and perhaps Ridge or Riverview), (Apopka against Winter Park, Seminole and probably Wekiva and Spruce Creek). 

I am going to go out on a limb and in the spirit of the last two years predict a close game with Apopka prevailing 28 - 24. Hope I am right, but would not be surprised if I am wrong. 

[DisabledAccount]

17 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

For the second week in a row, we have Monday night games in the greater Orlando area. This one is another make up game that was postponed due to Irma. 

The game has lost a little of its luster due to both teams playing their second game after only two and three days off for Apopka and DP, respectively. To add to that, both schools have important district games this Friday and in the case of Apopka it is homecoming week. Despite all of this, it is still, by far, the biggest game in the area this evening.  

Apopka comes into it off a facile victory over Mandarin. However, the team is somewhat banged up from both the Mandarin and Evans games, and several key pieces of the offense are doubtful for this evening. To add to this, the West Orange game this Friday presents a much bigger challenge for Apopka than the Freedom game presents for DP. And, while all games now count, clearly winning the district is of paramount importance for the Darters. Should they lose to WO, then they would. in all likelihood need a win against Wekiva to force a three way tie for District champion (I am assuming that the old rules for determining DC still apply and that points at the end of the season would not automatically determine the champ; I could be wrong as I have not checked).  

With all of the above in mind, there is some incentive for Apopka to be conservative in this game.

My overall take on the game is this. I have pretty good knowledge of what Apopka will bring on offense. With regards DP, their overall defense seems a little down from the past two years. In particular, in the OC University game, they seems susceptible to both the intermediate and deep pass. However, Apopka, aside from the Lakeland game, has not passed much. So I assume it will follow its tradition and rely on its running game. DP's run stop defense is very solid (not as down as its secondary). It shut down Linguard in the University game, which was no small feat. It also kept Wekiva in check for most of Thursday's game (not as great an accomplishment). However,  with that said, Apopka has a better, more varied rushing attack than either OC University or Wekiva. So, it should be able to get some decent rushing yards against DP. The question is will it be enough. 

My take is that Apopka will need 28 to 35 points to beat DP. While its defense is decent overall, it does not seem to be outstanding. This goes for both the secondary and front 7. On the other hand, I don't think DP's offense is dynamic enough on offense to score more than mid 20s on the current Apopka defense. 

I expect this to be an interesting game that could have a replay in the state semis, though both teams will have to go through some tough competition to get there (DP against Osceola, Vero Beach and perhaps Ridge or Riverview), (Apopka against Winter Park, Seminole and probably Wekiva and Spruce Creek). 

I am going to go out on a limb and in the spirit of the last two years predict a close game with Apopka prevailing 28 - 24. Hope I am right, but would not be surprised if I am wrong. 

Actually the new rules get rid of the tiebreaker system and if teams finish with same record in district points will break ties

[DarterBlue2]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Actually the new rules get rid of the tiebreaker system and if teams finish with same record in district points will break ties

I am not surprised and that sucks. Personally, while I have no problem with the points system for the other four spots in a tied district, I think the best way to settle things is to have a tiebreaker shoot out. At least that way things are settled on the field. 

Anyway, it is all the more important Apopka beats West Orange on Friday. Not sure how this will affect tonight's game.

[badbird]

I think looking on the outside in one would think the game would be a low-scoring.  I actually think if it was played on a Friday it would be a little higher scoring but playing on a Monday concerns me what you will get. I think it comes down to a last possession game possibly going for two.  I will take the DP 30 Apopka 29

[badbird]

5 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Actually the new rules get rid of the tiebreaker system and if teams finish with same record in district points will break ties

More reason I dislike new format 

[DisabledAccount]

29 minutes ago, badbird said:

More reason I dislike new format 

You telling me a 1 quarter shootout is really better and the 3 team districts with 1-9 Eastside teams and Leon teams who would finish 4th or 5th in district 2 or 3 of 7a region 1 were making playoffs? 

 

Brah give it some time,  this system has some kinks to work out but it a improvement off the one from last year 

[badbird]

3 team districts suck.  One quarter games to determine a district winner is better than going by a stupid point system where the only thing that matters is how well your opponents scheduled games and sometimes how well the team did two years  ago to get 3 bonus points.  

[badbird]

If 3 teams tie for a district title and all 3  split with each other there should be a shootout to determine who is the district champ not a bogus point system.  

I agree the system we have for classes 5-8 is better than before that doesn’t mean I have to like it.  It has major flaws still

[DisabledAccount]

27 minutes ago, badbird said:

3 team districts suck.  One quarter games to determine a district winner is better than going by a stupid point system where the only thing that matters is how well your opponents scheduled games and sometimes how well the team did two years  ago to get 3 bonus points.  

I'm not a fan of those shootouts,  being best team for 1 quarter don't prove best overall, some teams get behind early and play great second half once other team is tired out 

[DisabledAccount]

26 minutes ago, badbird said:

If 3 teams tie for a district title and all 3  split with each other there should be a shootout to determine who is the district champ not a bogus point system.  

I agree the system we have for classes 5-8 is better than before that doesn’t mean I have to like it.  It has major flaws still

The system will be better once we pass the days of the old crappy system and teams like Eastside and leon aren't counted as playoff teams

[badbird]

So you think a point system where how your opponents scheduled and what they did two years ago is better than a shootout?  

[badbird]

14-0 Apopka at half.  DP had one drive where they went for it on 4th down and dropped a touchdown pass.  Other than that Apopka dominated the first half.  Apopka turned it over once deep inside DP’s territory.  DP gets the ball first in the second half.

[DisabledAccount]

9 minutes ago, badbird said:

So you think a point system where how your opponents scheduled and what they did two years ago is better than a shootout?  

The thing you are overlooking is that we are in the transition period 

 

2 years from now these issues will be in past and we will have  the true view of what the system can do

 

I personally don't like shootouts because i don't feel the best team will come out of them 

[DisabledAccount]

10 minutes ago, badbird said:

14-0 Apopka at half.  DP had one drive where they went for it on 4th down and dropped a touchdown pass.  Other than that Apopka dominated the first half.  Apopka turned it over once deep inside DP’s territory.  DP gets the ball first in the second half.

Dr Phillips got to pick up the pace, they really don't want to be shut out 2 games in a row

[badbird]

14-7 Apopka got a personal foul to keep the drive going.  Screen pass to Alford 53 yards.  We got a game

[badbird]

21-7 Apopka responds with a 80 yard drive.  5 minutes in the third

[badbird]

21-14 Apopka.  7:55 left in the game

[badbird]

Apopka wins 21-14

[gwdrum75]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

2 years from now these issues will be in past and we will have  the true view of what the system can do

 

I personally don't like shootouts because i don't feel the best team will come out of them 

I would rather it be decided on the field than in a calculator. At least then the teams have their destiny in their own hands. Perfect example is the recent teams that have had to forfeit games. The other teams on their schedule have now suddenly lost points because a kid didn't report he moved, possibly effecting playoff eligibility and/or seeding. If you have an "on the field" tiebreaker, the team that better prepares will usually come out on top. Use the points to see who has the first quarter bye, but not as the overall decision on a tiebreaker.

[DarterBlue2]

Apopka deserved the win tonight and were probably a bit better than the final margin suggested. It set the tone when Neil Williams took the hand-off 68 yards down the left sideline on the second play from scrimmage for the opening score. And, aside from taking a knee on its final possession, Apopka moved the ball well on each of its possessions. It fumbled it away once and turned in over on downs a couple times; scored on three of its drives; and, had its final drive of the second quarter interrupted by the clock's expiration.  

DP moved the ball better against Apopka than it did against Wekiva, but it was inconsistent on its drives and punted, I believe, three or four times, in addition to turning it over on downs two or three times. 

Phillips at this stage is not the team it was last year. However, it should win its district easily and could improve as the playoffs progress. At this stage, from what I have seen of Vero Beach on video, I would pick VB to beat DP. 

[Pipe Dreams]

DP is in a funk on offense. 

They basically return their entire OL from last year, have a better QB, more talented receivers and two college level running backs.

This team was 0-0 with Oak Ridge at the half (but won 41-6).

Something is just off. If they do fix it, then this offense will be better than last year's. On paper they are better... I don't have the answers.

The secondary has been missing pieces all year.

This is the type of DP team that may hit its stride late.

[DarterBlue2]

2 hours ago, Pipe Dreams said:

DP is in a funk on offense. 

They basically return their entire OL from last year, have a better QB, more talented receivers and two college level running backs.

This team was 0-0 with Oak Ridge at the half (but won 41-6).

Something is just off. If they do fix it, then this offense will be better than last year's. On paper they are better... I don't have the answers.

The secondary has been missing pieces all year.

This is the type of DP team that may hit its stride late.

Not sure I agree that McCray is better than Washington. They are different quarterbacks in terms of their strengths and weaknesses.  Personally, I feel Washington has/had more upside potential at the position.  However, I do believe McCray is more creative. His style of play reminds me of Nick Patti's when he was at DP.