What Would the New System Look Like in Football

[gatorman-uf]

So I spent some time, I took the top 300 teams in football from 2016 and 2017 (you had to be in both and I didn't feel like doing all 550+ teams that Max Preps has ranked) and averaged their 2 year rankings (which is from my understanding what the new system would do). I removed any 1A football team, Oxbridge, and IMG Academy that left 237 teams. We don't care about all 237, we only care about the top 64, and the next 64.

Division 1:

1.    Baker County High School
2.    Columbia High School
3.    Crestview High School
4.    Navarre High School
5.    Niceville High School
6.    Rickards High School
7.    Wakulla High School
8.    West Florida High School

1.    Bartram Trail High School
2.    The Bolles School
3.    Clay High School
4.    Robert E. Lee High School
5.    Ponte Vedra High School
6.    William M. Raines High School
7.    St Augustine High School
8.    Trinity Christian Academy

1.    Apopka High School
2.    Bishop Moore Catholic High School
3.    Jones High School
4.    Mainland High School
5.    Seminole High School
6.    Dr. Phillips High School
7.    Winter Park High School
8.    Wekiva High School

1.    Armwood High School
2.    Hillsborough High School
3.    Vanguard High School
4.    Jesuit High School
5.    Lake Gibson High School
6.    Lakeland Senior High School
7.    Osceola High School
8.    Tampa Bay Technical High School

1.    Braden River High School
2.    East Lake High School
3.    Fort Myers High School
4.    Immokalee High School
5.    Naples High School
6.    Plant High School
7.    Riverview High School
8.    Venice High School

1.    Atlantic Community High School
2.    Cocoa High School
3.    William T. Dwyer High School
4.    Melbourne Central Catholic High School
5.    Palm Bay High School
6.    Park Vista Community High School
7.    Vero Beach High School
8.    Viera High School

1.    American Heritage School (Plantation)
2.    Cardinal Gibbons High School
3.    Chaminade-Madonna College Preparatory
4.    Deerfield Beach High School
5.    Miramar High School
6.    Miami Norland Senior High School
7.    St. Thomas Aquinas High School
8.    Western High School

1.    Booker T. Washington Senior High School
2.    Miami Carol City Senior High School
3.    Miami Central Senior High School
4.    Christopher Columbus High School
5.    Coral Gables High School
6.    Miami Northwestern Senior High
7.    Miami Palmetto Senior High School
8.    Miami Southridge Senior High School
 

*EDITED
VANGUARD and DR. PHILLIPS switched

Questions:
1) Are there any teams that you would consider possible state contenders (5A and above) missing from the list?
2) Are there any elite teams missing from the list? (IMG, Oxbridge, Madison County removed for various reasons)
3) If you took these out of your current districts, would you really be that scared?
 

[gatorman-uf]

For Division 2:

Again, if these teams and the above are gone from your district aren't the rest of the teams that are left beatable or at least average and not dominating?

1.    Blountstown
2.    Escambia (Pensacola)
3.    Florida State University (Tallahassee)
4.    Godby (Tallahassee)
5.    Gulf Breeze
6.    Lincoln (Tallahassee)
7.    Pine Forest (Pensacola)
8.    Tate (Cantonment)

1.    Bishop Kenny (Jacksonville)
2.    Fletcher (Neptune Beach)
3.    Fleming Island (Orange Park)
4.    Menendez (St. Augustine)
5.    Oakleaf (Orange Park)
6.    Ribault (Jacksonville)
7.    Sandalwood (Jacksonville)
8.    University Christian (Jacksonville)

1.    Buchholz (Gainesville)
2.    Flagler Palm Coast (Palm Coast)
3.    Gainesville
4.    Dunnellon
5.    Matanzas (Palm Coast)
6.    Mitchell (New Port Richey)
7.    Spruce Creek (Port Orange)
8.    Wiregrass Ranch (Wesley Chapel)

1.    Boone (Orlando)
2.    Lake Brantley (Altamonte Springs)
3.    Lake Mary
4.    Olympia (Orlando)
5.    Ridge Community (Davenport)
6.    Timber Creek (Orlando)
7.    University (Orange City)
8.    West Orange (Winter Garden)

1.    Berkeley Prep (Tampa)
2.    Clearwater
3.    Clearwater Central Catholic (Clearwater)
4.    Durant (Plant City)
5.    Jefferson (Tampa)
6.    Kathleen (Lakeland)
7.    Tampa Catholic (Tampa)
8.    Winter Haven

1.    Charlotte (Punta Gorda)
2.    Dunbar (Fort Myers)
3.    Lakewood (St. Petersburg)
4.    Manatee (Bradenton)
5.    North Fort Myers
6.    Palmetto
7.    Port Charlotte
8.    St. Petersburg

1.    Avon Park
2.    Glades Central (Belle Glade)
3.    Heritage (Palm Bay)
4.    King's Academy (West Palm Beach)
5.    Merritt Island
6.    Rockledge
7.    Sebring
8.    Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie)

1.    Archbishop McCarthy (Fort Lauderdale)
2.    Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes)
3.    Champagnat Catholic (Hialeah)
4.    Dillard (Fort Lauderdale)
5.    Jackson (Miami)
6.    Monsignor Pace (Miami)
7.    South Dade (Homestead)
8.    University (Fort Lauderdale)
 

[DisabledAccount]

13 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

For Division 2:

Again, if these teams and the above are gone from your district aren't the rest of the teams that are left beatable or at least average and not dominating?

1.    Blountstown
2.    Escambia (Pensacola)
3.    Florida State University (Tallahassee)
4.    Godby (Tallahassee)
5.    Gulf Breeze
6.    Lincoln (Tallahassee)
7.    Pine Forest (Pensacola)
8.    Tate (Cantonment)

1.    Bishop Kenny (Jacksonville)
2.    Fletcher (Neptune Beach)
3.    Fleming Island (Orange Park)
4.    Menendez (St. Augustine)
5.    Oakleaf (Orange Park)
6.    Ribault (Jacksonville)
7.    Sandalwood (Jacksonville)
8.    University Christian (Jacksonville)

1.    Buchholz (Gainesville)
2.    Flagler Palm Coast (Palm Coast)
3.    Gainesville
4.    Dunnellon
5.    Matanzas (Palm Coast)
6.    Mitchell (New Port Richey)
7.    Spruce Creek (Port Orange)
8.    Wiregrass Ranch (Wesley Chapel)

1.    Boone (Orlando)
2.    Lake Brantley (Altamonte Springs)
3.    Lake Mary
4.    Olympia (Orlando)
5.    Ridge Community (Davenport)
6.    Timber Creek (Orlando)
7.    University (Orange City)
8.    West Orange (Winter Garden)

1.    Berkeley Prep (Tampa)
2.    Clearwater
3.    Clearwater Central Catholic (Clearwater)
4.    Durant (Plant City)
5.    Jefferson (Tampa)
6.    Kathleen (Lakeland)
7.    Tampa Catholic (Tampa)
8.    Winter Haven

1.    Charlotte (Punta Gorda)
2.    Dunbar (Fort Myers)
3.    Lakewood (St. Petersburg)
4.    Manatee (Bradenton)
5.    North Fort Myers
6.    Palmetto
7.    Port Charlotte
8.    St. Petersburg

1.    Avon Park
2.    Glades Central (Belle Glade)
3.    Heritage (Palm Bay)
4.    King's Academy (West Palm Beach)
5.    Merritt Island
6.    Rockledge
7.    Sebring
8.    Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie)

1.    Archbishop McCarthy (Fort Lauderdale)
2.    Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes)
3.    Champagnat Catholic (Hialeah)
4.    Dillard (Fort Lauderdale)
5.    Jackson (Miami)
6.    Monsignor Pace (Miami)
7.    South Dade (Homestead)
8.    University (Fort Lauderdale)
 

So why does blountstown 

 

A 1a team

 

End up in there but not Madison?

[Pipe Dreams]

Switch Vanguard and Dr. Phillips. Vanguard could take i-75 south to Tampa from Ocala and it keeps the metro Orlando area in one chunk. 

[gatorman-uf]

2 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So why does blountstown 

A 1a team

End up in there but not Madison?

Because I screwed up...

[DisabledAccount]

3 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

Because I screwed up...

All good

[Pipe Dreams]

switch Vanguard and DP dude

[OldSchoolLion]

14 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

So I spent some time, I took the top 300 teams in football from 2016 and 2017 (you had to be in both and I didn't feel like doing all 550+ teams that Max Preps has ranked) and averaged their 2 year rankings (which is from my understanding what the new system would do). I removed any 1A football team, Oxbridge, and IMG Academy that left 237 teams. We don't care about all 237, we only care about the top 64, and the next 64.

1.    Booker T. Washington Senior High School
2.    Miami Carol City Senior High School
3.    Miami Central Senior High School
4.    Christopher Columbus High School
5.    Coral Gables High School
6.    Miami Northwestern Senior High
7.    Miami Palmetto Senior High School
8.    Miami Southridge Senior High School
 

Questions:
1) Are there any teams that you would consider possible state contenders (5A and above) missing from the list?
2) Are there any elite teams missing from the list? (IMG, Oxbridge, Madison County removed for various reasons)
3) If you took these out of your current districts, would you really be that scared?
 

 South Dade had an off year in 2016 and that was a one-off.  They are loaded with talent...at least on paper...substantially more than Palmetto or Coral Gables.

[OldSchoolLion]

14 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

Questions:
1) Are there any teams that you would consider possible state contenders (5A and above) missing from the list?
2) Are there any elite teams missing from the list? (IMG, Oxbridge, Madison County removed for various reasons)
3) If you took these out of your current districts, would you really be that scared?
 

Something just seems odd about having schools like Winter Park, Seminole and Apopka, with 3300 kids, in the same class as Chaminade-Madonna or Melbourne CC, who each have about 500, Jesuit with 800 or even Cardinal Gibbons with 1100.  I know private schools are perceived to have an advantage, but that is a huge population difference.

Some complain about private schools building all-star teams.  Well, this will absolutely force them into that mode and then some to be able to compete with schools 3-5 times their size.  If we think things are bad now with certain private schools, I could see it getting worse.

On the public school side, you have Cocoa and Carol City, with 1000 kids, who are at a pretty distinct disadvantage.  It appears that most of the 64 teams have 1400 or more students.  I'm not sure what the answer is for the few who have much less than that.    

    

 

[gatorman-uf]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

 South Dade had an off year in 2016 and that was a one-off.  They are loaded with talent...at least on paper...substantially more than Palmetto or Coral Gables.

South Dade's 2016 ranking was #108 according to MaxPreps
South Dade's 2017 ranking was #55 according to MaxPreps
The average of these two rankings would put them at #66 (once IMG, Oxbridge, and Madison County are removed). 
So they are right there.
 

1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Something just seems odd about having schools like Winter Park, Seminole and Apopka, with 3300 kids, in the same class as Chaminade-Madonna or Melbourne CC, who each have about 500, Jesuit with 800 or even Cardinal Gibbons with 1100.  I know private schools are perceived to have an advantage, but that is a huge population difference.

 

My original proposal (about 4-6 years ago) was the idea that you start with normal classifications based on population, but the FHSAA then would look at the success of your team over the last 5-10 years. If you don't make the playoffs, we subtract 10% of your population or subtract a constant number like 50 to 100. If you make the playoffs, nothing. For each round you advance in the playoffs, we add 10% or a constant number like 50-100. 

We then have new classifications based on the adjusted numbers. This way a team like Trinity Christian in Jacksonville moves up, but a team like Stanton Prep or Paxton moves down. This way you don't ignore population (which the proposed system does), but you also take into account success (which the current system does not). It would be a rare situation to see a Trinity Christian or Bolles end up in the 8A classification. Could they have ended up in the 5A or 6A (they should be a 3A and 4A right now), yes. Now would a school like Cocoa who has had constant success end up in a classification much higher, absolutely. 

At the same time, public school teams that could barely beat small private schools might actually be .500. It was a real time consuming type of thing to set up, which is why I understand why the FHSAA wouldn't want to do it as it doesn't have the cleanliness of just using population numbers or the MaxPreps numbers.

Another simple way to do it, is to keep districts for everyone (including 2A-4A). Take the 2 year district records. Top two district records move up, worse two records move down.  In this way, it takes a school like Trinity Christian or Chaminade-Madonna numerous years to make the climb to a 6A, but a school like Varela would also take numerous years to make it down to 4A where they might be competitive.