Margins of Victory Tonight in 7A-8A

[OldSchoolLion]

10 of 16(63%) games tonight in 7A-8A were decided by 21 or more points.  Only 4 of 16 games were decided by 10 points or less.  Even in the competitive larger classes, just trying to find 4 teams in a region who can give each other a close game can be challenging.  With 8 teams competing in each region(in a system with 8 classifications), I believe there are going to be a substantial number of blowouts regardless of the system used to determine playoff teams. 

As a comparison, in 1998, the 16 second round games in the 2 largest classes(5A and 6A) at the time resulted in the following: 4 of 16 games were decided by 21 or more points and 8 of 16 games were decided by 10 points or less.

My point is not to disparage the current system, but simply to point out that expecting it to fix the "problem" of blowouts is probably unrealistic.  Even if the points system succeeds in decreasing average margins of victory, from a fan perspective, does it really make a difference whether a team loses by 21 or 35 points?  Many fans would probably rather stay home in either case.  

 

 

[DarterBlue2]

14 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

10 of 16(63%) games tonight in 7A-8A were decided by 21 or more points.  Only 4 of 16 games were decided by 10 points or less.  Even in the competitive larger classes, just trying to find 4 teams in a region who can give each other a close game can be challenging.  With 8 teams competing in each region(in a system with 8 classifications), I believe there are going to be a substantial number of blowouts regardless of the system used to determine playoff teams. 

As a comparison, in 1998, the 16 second round games in the 2 largest classes(5A and 6A) at the time resulted in the following: 4 of 16 games were decided by 21 or more points and 8 of 16 games were decided by 10 points or less.

My point is not to disparage the current system, but simply to point out that expecting it to fix the "problem" of blowouts is probably unrealistic.  Even if the points system succeeds in decreasing average margins of victory, from a fan perspective, does it really make a difference whether a team loses by 21 or 35 points?  Many fans would probably rather stay home in either case.  

 

 

First, there are, as you imply, too many classes and probably too many teams making the playoffs. But this is only part of the problem with respect to competitiveness. Equally important, is the rise of the "super team." This had already been a serious trend over the past decade where, in addition to a few select private schools, some of the public schools in larger metro areas had begun to assemble talent within a ten to twenty mile radius, "borrowing" heavily from other, less successful programs.

With the relaxing of student transfer rules by the State's legislature, this trend will only continue. If the goal is to put together a few teams that can compete effectively on a National Stage in out of state match ups, then this works. However, if the goal is to have competitive playoffs in state, it defeats it, and, to a degree this has impacted attendance at the playoffs all the way through the title games. Fans don't want to pay their hard earned money (which has not grown in real terms in decades) to watch their local team get blown out in Orlando or elsewhere. 

In a sense, high school football is just a microcosm of what has, and continues to happen, in wider American society. For the successful, I am sure this is a great thing. For the rest, probably not so much. 

[181pl]

Too deep, man.

 

 

[181pl]

Easy problem to fix. Go to 5 real classes. Public schools only. Districts should have 8 teams. Top two make it. Let the district winner have a home game as a reward, and then re-seed by section after the first round based on points (1 point for each win and a strength of schedule bonus based on your opponents' winning percentage).

In addition, two private school classes. The first one would take all the current privates in 2 and 3A. The next class would combine the schools from 4A to 8A. I don't care if STA, Belen, and Columbus are larger schools. A private school can recruit 10 good D1 players and compete with any size school. I'm sure American Heritgage and Cardinal Gibbons are not scared of Belen Jesuit and Columbus. They only want to be away from STA because STA recruits better than anyone. And since we'd open this thing up to not care about recruiting, IMG could be in if it wanted to be. One of the most laughable things I ever read is when George Smith said he didn't want to play "a school like IMG". LOL.

At the end of they year, you could have an open bowl to pit STA against the best public school champ if the teams wanted it.

There you go. Problems solved.

 

[DarterBlue2]

39 minutes ago, 181pl said:

There you go. Problems solved.

 

That would solve some of the problems. It would not address the deficit smaller town and rural public schools currently have when their enrollment puts them in one of the larger classes unless you factor some kind of population handicap into the equation. 

[181pl]

31 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

That would solve some of the problems. It would not address the deficit smaller town and rural public schools currently have when their enrollment puts them in one of the larger classes unless you factor some kind of population handicap into the equation. 

????? People are people. If the numbers are equal, they're equal. How about no recruiting? How about sit out a year if you transfer?  That would fix things very quickly.

[181pl]

And if you disagree with that, then you really don't care about real competition, you just care about how FLA looks on the national stage. That would certainly eliminate "super teams". Now would a 1200 population Carol City be favored over a 1200 Zephyrhills (just an example, not picking on Zhills)? Of course. But that's the breaks. 

[DarterBlue2]

5 minutes ago, 181pl said:

????? People are people. If the numbers are equal, they're equal. How about no recruiting? How about sit out a year if you transfer?  That would fix things very quickly.

That's my point exactly. In the 1980s and 1990s when recruiting was less prevalent, the rural and small town schools did fine. However, not so much now. It is kind of difficult for Columbia high school to attract kids from Tallahassee and Gainesville or Jacksonville.  It is not that difficult for an Apopka or Dr. Phillips or Plant to bring in kids from wider Hillsborough or Polk or Orange or Seminole counties if they decide to go that route. 

[DarterBlue2]

And the state legislature did not do smaller towns and rural areas a favor when they basically opened up unlimited recruiting.

[181pl]

Just now, DarterBlue2 said:

That's my point exactly. In the 1980s and 1990s when recruiting was less prevalent, the rural and small town schools did fine. However, not so much. It is kind of difficult for Columbia high school to attract kids from Tallahassee and Gainesville or Jacksonville.  It is not that difficult for an Apopka or Dr. Phillips or Plant to bring in kids from wider Hillsborough or Polk or Orange or Seminole counties if they decide to go that route. 

Agreed. Just have to actually enforce school zones. There will always be advantages. Small towns do have an advantage in that their not too transient, get excellent community support, and families have generations of players playing at a school with great pride. That may not overcome 10 D1 athletes in a given year, but I bet the small town folks wouldn't trade what they've got for some transient team loaded up with kids more interested in their HUDL highlights than for playing for Niceville, Jefferson County, Madison County, etc. etc. etc.

[DarterBlue2]

1 minute ago, 181pl said:

Just have to actually enforce school zones.

The problem is that now there are not enforceable zones anymore, as long as a school is not at or above capacity. Lake Brantley High, if they set their mind to it, could theoretically devastate both Apopka and Wekiva football. 

[181pl]

Yes, but school choice is a lot deeper than simply athletics.

 

You can separate the two if you had to.

[181pl]

And Darter, I agree with most of what you say, but there is never going to be a perfect system. The best way we can do this is to have fewer classes, larger districts, actually enforce populations. Look at 6A. Prior to the playoffs, most would have, looking at the brackets, picked the 6A final as Armwood against Carol City. Armwood is on the verge of being an 8A school and they've been allowed to stay in 6A 3 years while their student population has been way over. Carol City is a 4A school allowed to play in 6A. 

 

Enforce the damn population boundaries! 

[OldSchoolLion]

Below were the blowout games in 7A-8A this weekend. Imagine if 7A and 8A were combined.  Dwyer and STA could have been facing South Dade and Columbus last night in Region 4.  PB Central could have been facing Venice in Region 3.  Mandarin could have been facing Wekiva in Region 1.  Columbus and Palmetto just "happened."  Nobody would have predicted that.

 

Mandarin over Winter Park

Palm Beach Central over Western

Columbus over Palmetto

St Thomas over Fort Lauderdale

Dwyer over Palm Beach Lakes

[DarterBlue2]

4 hours ago, 181pl said:

And Darter, I agree with most of what you say, but there is never going to be a perfect system. The best way we can do this is to have fewer classes, larger districts, actually enforce populations. Look at 6A. Prior to the playoffs, most would have, looking at the brackets, picked the 6A final as Armwood against Carol City. Armwood is on the verge of being an 8A school and they've been allowed to stay in 6A 3 years while their student population has been way over. Carol City is a 4A school allowed to play in 6A. 

 

Enforce the damn population boundaries! 

It is actually amazing that Carol City has gotten so small. They were once a legitimate large classification school in the Walt Frazier days. I know it is not a lack of kids in the zone, as I have relatives that live at the border of the CC and Norland zones, and the number of teenagers there has not declined with time. So, it must be something else, since no new relief, traditional Public High Schools have been built in the area since Dr. Krop, many years ago. Not sure if it's the prevalence of more Charter Schools or if kids are opting to go out of zone from the area.  

[skyway]

9 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:

First, there are, as you imply, too many classes and probably too many teams making the playoffs. But this is only part of the problem with respect to competitiveness. Equally important, is the rise of the "super team." This had already been a serious trend over the past decade where, in addition to a few select private schools, some of the public schools in larger metro areas had begun to assemble talent within a ten to twenty mile radius, "borrowing" heavily from other, less successful programs.

With the relaxing of student transfer rules by the State's legislature, this trend will only continue. If the goal is to put together a few teams that can compete effectively on a National Stage in out of state match ups, then this works. However, if the goal is to have competitive playoffs in state, it defeats it, and, to a degree this has impacted attendance at the playoffs all the way through the title games. Fans don't want to pay their hard earned money (which has not grown in real terms in decades) to watch their local team get blown out in Orlando or elsewhere. 

In a sense, high school football is just a microcosm of what has, and continues to happen in wider American society. For the successful, I am sure this is a great thing. For the rest, probably not so much. 

Part of me thinks this all started when Lebron went to the Heat! This idea of super teams caught on and has only spread.

I do think the future of high school football is very much in doubt. You already have the injury risks, which appear to be far greater than we used to think with the CTE stuff. Now, you've got a handful of super dominant teams just destroying badly outmanned teams. More and more kids are going to start to think, if they aren't in that elite group with college scholarships and beyond as possibilities, why bother playing? We could see a dearth of players and teams. And then schools will decide it isn't worth the financial investment to field teams. We could end up with a handful of academies like IMG playing nationally and that's it.

[skyway]

5 hours ago, 181pl said:

????? People are people. If the numbers are equal, they're equal. How about no recruiting? How about sit out a year if you transfer?  That would fix things very quickly.

Not likely to happen in this political climate. What you describe-preset attendance boundaries in the name of equality, dismissal of the "free market" in regards to programs distinguishing themselves and increasing demand for their product by not letting families go where they please- all will be deemed "socialist". And then some f*cksticks will start talking about Venezuela and, well, that's the ball game. 

*I'm not saying your ideas are bad or wrong.