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BrowardHandicapper

Could drastic changes be coming to FHSAA Playoffs in 2017

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I have already talked against this policy and still think it is idiotic and overly complicated. The current system works. You win your district you move on.
There is more incentive now to play a "winning" team to toughen up your schedule.

Why would say Columbia play Bolles or Trinity Christian under the new system? If they lose they gain nothing, if they win, they gain little. So why bother?
If you want to fix the system, allow for relegation and promotion. If you qualify for playoffs 100 students added to your population, 75 for additional every round. (only 10% of that for 1A-3A). Most 400 from one season and 800 if you go back to back.

Negative 50 for every season you don't qualify for the playoffs (so if you haven't made in 19 seasons (looking at your Forest Hills (West Palm Beach)). We start with 2316 subtract 1(9 *50) and end up with 1366 where they play Suncoast, Fort Pierce Westwood, and Port St. Lucie instead of Dwyer (Palm Beach Gardens), Olympic Heights (Boca Raton), Palm Beach Lakes (West Palm Beach), Royal Palm Beach, West Boca Raton.

No more than a 1000 students can be subtracted.

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I have already talked against this policy and still think it is idiotic and overly complicated. The current system works. You win your district you move on.

There is more incentive now to play a "winning" team to toughen up your schedule.

Why would say Columbia play Bolles or Trinity Christian under the new system? If they lose they gain nothing, if they win, they gain little. So why bother?

If you want to fix the system, allow for relegation and promotion. If you qualify for playoffs 100 students added to your population, 75 for additional every round. (only 10% of that for 1A-3A). Most 400 from one season and 800 if you go back to back.

 

Negative 50 for every season you don't qualify for the playoffs (so if you haven't made in 19 seasons (looking at your Forest Hills (West Palm Beach)). We start with 2316 subtract 1(9 *50) and end up with 1366 where they play Suncoast, Fort Pierce Westwood, and Port St. Lucie instead of Dwyer (Palm Beach Gardens), Olympic Heights (Boca Raton), Palm Beach Lakes (West Palm Beach), Royal Palm Beach, West Boca Raton.

No more than a 1000 students can be subtracted.

 

Between the open transfer rule and this playoff system it could get wild....

 

Regarding the relegation and promotion....Very interesting formula.  Do other states use a similar formula or is this a brainstorming/possible proposal that you came up with?

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I agree with Gatorman it's just to complicated and leaves to much room for mistakes in scheduling. A team that is normally a contender could have a rash of key or season ending injury's causing other teams not to make the playoff because of someone else bad luck. 

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If you win every game you still clinch, no way you miss out as 10-0 so win every game, but that was a good example with Columbia but it would motivate us to play even tougher opponents like we have had to because teams like orange park and Terry Parker and Middleburg and Englewood who no offense are not really at our talent level would not want to play us so we had to go to higher level opponents which as proven this past year has helped us take the next step

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I just think when you have to look at a opponent's schedule before you agree to play them so you can estimate on  rather they will have a 6 or 8 win season so you can get enough points to make the playoff is asking to much.  And if you schedule 10 cupcakes YES you could get left out even if you go 10 and 0  

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But when does a schedule become a cupcake schedule... For example, Buchholz (Gainesville) went 4-6 in 2014 in 2015 they went 10-2 and the schedules were very similar in terms of teams. Does this mean that Buchholz scheduled cupcakes or did they get better? If you scheduled them before the season, did you think they were a 9-1 type regular season team? If you schedule First Coast (Jacksonville) did you really think they were going to be that bad?

I find it funny that they used Region 1, Class 7A which I used to prove their last system was idiotic. They still have the wrong math for Columbia High School (which probably means they have the wrong math for other schools as well).

 

As I look at the power point, I don't see how this solves the problem...

 
  • Some are in small districts some are in large districts (This is FHSAA fault, they chose to expand to 8 classifications, shrink the classifications, problem is solved).
     
  • The best teams don’t always get in (This is always true, there is always a team that feels they deserved to get in and didn't).
     
  • Travel/Competition/Safety (These issues could be solved by new districting)
     
  • Old and Outdated (This is an opinion and nothing about it seems outdated unless you are just looking to switch)
     
  • Does not take in account week 11 outcome (Actually lots of weeks don't count under the current system, not just week 11).
     
  • Very little excitement leading into playoffs (Another Opinion. Ask Lincoln if they were excited after the Shootout they won, and who says week 11 will have any more excitement. Win or Lose your team could be in, additionally, having to sit and pray that your former opponents win so you can get extra points doesn't seem like a situation where the winner is being determined on the field). 
     
  • Second round rematches (ummm... you could have 1st/2nd/3rd round rematches under this "new" system. Rematches Happen.)
     
  • Over 50% of the playoff games in 2015 had a 21 point differential. (That speaks to numerous issues including too many classifications, a renewed emphasis on offense. I also take issue that this system fixes this. 6 out 8 teams in the sample classification made the playoffs under the old system. Only 2 of the games in Region 1 were over 21 points, both of them were CHS vs Lincoln, CHS vs Bartram Trail (both games that could have happened under the new system anyway. So if you are complaining about big victories. This doesn't solve it.)
     
  • 40% of teams are in a 3 or 4 team district (FHSAA's fault for 8 classifications, including 4 really small classifications. Second, faulty data. 7 out of 40 teams in 1A play in 3 or 4 team districts, but there aren't more teams that they could add. 24/31 in 2A, but again most of the schools that could be used in 2A are independents. 29/29 in 3A, 8 out 40 in 4A, 13 out 82 in 5A, 24/79 in 6A, 17/86 in 7A, 8/89 in 8A. Unless I miscounted that comes to 130/476 or 27% not 40%. Boo for bad math)
     
  • Independent number is growing due to forced district play (Agreed that this is a problem, but this doesn't really solve the problem. These same teams can have the same schedules they have now as Independents or as Class 2A. The only difference is that they have to play Class 2A powerhouses in the playoffs, which they want to avoid to begin with).

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These are the list of the positives about the new schedule from the powerpoint...
  • Schools control their own schedule (Agreed)
     
  • Schools can do what best fits their athletes (Agreed)
     
  • No more complaining about district placement (Ummm... you still will hear complaints about every other sport, and this sounds like a situation where you guys are just forced to work harder)
     
  • School districts or areas can create their own conferences (They can do that know with out of district games)
     
  • Schools and/or Districts can control Travel (This is just a repeat of Point #1)
     
  • Creates excitement that is now missing (This is an opinion) 
     
  • Counts week 11 (It counts now, it just doens't count for playoff purposes, and for the most part neither does week 1 or 2 for most schools. While it is a true argument, it is a stupid argument).
     
  • The best teams will get in (No they won't because people will figure out how to game the system like they always do. BTW Region 1, Class 7A 7 out the 8 teams in the new simulation were already playoff teams, so it's not like good teams were held out).
     
  • Week 11 press conference announcing matchups (Really?!?!?! Somebody will open a newspaper or go to a website to see it. What will actually happen is that most teams will move their bye to Week 11 so they know the end results).
     
  • The seeding will create a more exciting playoff system (Opinion, but seeding would be better overall, but not much. Look to Region 4, Class 7A. Dwyer played STA in Round 2. If they had been seeded #1 and #2, it would be Round 3. Not much of a difference.)
     
  • Creates more self-policing (Not even sure what this means, but if it is regards to scheduling you already said that)
     
  • Tough schedules will be rewarded (How are they punished now? If you set-up a Murder's Row of Plant, Armwood, Apopka, Bolles, Trinity Christian, STA, and IMG as your schedule, are you punished?)

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But when does a schedule become a cupcake schedule... For example, Buchholz (Gainesville) went 4-6 in 2014 in 2015 they went 10-2 and the schedules were very similar in terms of teams. Does this mean that Buchholz scheduled cupcakes or did they get better? If you scheduled them before the season, did you think they were a 9-1 type regular season team? If you schedule First Coast (Jacksonville) did you really think they were going to be that bad?

 

I find it funny that they used Region 1, Class 7A which I used to prove their last system was idiotic. They still have the wrong math for Columbia High School (which probably means they have the wrong math for other schools as well).

 

As I look at the power point, I don't see how this solves the problem...

 
  • Some are in small districts some are in large districts (This is FHSAA fault, they chose to expand to 8 classifications, shrink the classifications, problem is solved).

     

  • The best teams don’t always get in (This is always true, there is always a team that feels they deserved to get in and didn't).

     

  • Travel/Competition/Safety (These issues could be solved by new districting)

     

  • Old and Outdated (This is an opinion and nothing about it seems outdated unless you are just looking to switch)

     

  • Does not take in account week 11 outcome (Actually lots of weeks don't count under the current system, not just week 11).

     

  • Very little excitement leading into playoffs (Another Opinion. Ask Lincoln if they were excited after the Shootout they won, and who says week 11 will have any more excitement. Win or Lose your team could be in, additionally, having to sit and pray that your former opponents win so you can get extra points doesn't seem like a situation where the winner is being determined on the field). 

     

  • Second round rematches (ummm... you could have 1st/2nd/3rd round rematches under this "new" system. Rematches Happen.)

     

  • Over 50% of the playoff games in 2015 had a 21 point differential. (That speaks to numerous issues including too many classifications, a renewed emphasis on offense. I also take issue that this system fixes this. 6 out 8 teams in the sample classification made the playoffs under the old system. Only 2 of the games in Region 1 were over 21 points, both of them were CHS vs Lincoln, CHS vs Bartram Trail (both games that could have happened under the new system anyway. So if you are complaining about big victories. This doesn't solve it.)

     

  • 40% of teams are in a 3 or 4 team district (FHSAA's fault for 8 classifications, including 4 really small classifications. Second, faulty data. 7 out of 40 teams in 1A play in 3 or 4 team districts, but there aren't more teams that they could add. 24/31 in 2A, but again most of the schools that could be used in 2A are independents. 29/29 in 3A, 8 out 40 in 4A, 13 out 82 in 5A, 24/79 in 6A, 17/86 in 7A, 8/89 in 8A. Unless I miscounted that comes to 130/476 or 27% not 40%. Boo for bad math)

     

  • Independent number is growing due to forced district play (Agreed that this is a problem, but this doesn't really solve the problem. These same teams can have the same schedules they have now as Independents or as Class 2A. The only difference is that they have to play Class 2A powerhouses in the playoffs, which they want to avoid to begin with).

 

 

Outside of IMG ....I believe the top Independent teams in the state would have no problem matching up with the top 2A Powerhouses. Archbishop McCarthy, Sante Fe Catholic, Calvary Christian, Key West to name a few....The top Independent team in my opinion was Coral Springs Charter who likely would have made for a great 2015 State Championship versus University Christian.  Surely better than that of a Cambridge Christian or Victory Christian Academy.

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I'm not sold on this at all. Here's what I've gathered so far. You will be allowed to schedule whomever you want because there won't be any district games, which means you can schedule all cupcakes as opponents or a gauntlet. Now this would be good for OOS games. Barbara Goleman out of Miami Lakes is in 7A. Now I know the Gators aren't good but you're playing in a eighth team district and by the time you add on rival games your schedule might be done so for a school like this not having district games would be beneficial. The biggest thing I'm having concerns about is the point system because smaller schools like Bolles, Trinity Christian Academy and Booker T. Washington are national powers and can beat 5A-8A schools so now you get points as an incentive which you've been always doing that. Another issue I see is with points again. If you're Dr. Phillips, Plant, Apopka, West Orange, Mandarin, Dwyer and so fourth playing lower classes won't get you much points. I mean you could potentially have Apopka playing Booker T. Washington, Dr. Phillips playing Bolles, or Plant playing Trinity Christian Academy which are all big time match up.

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Between the open transfer rule and this playoff system it could get wild....

 

Regarding the relegation and promotion....Very interesting formula.  Do other states use a similar formula or is this a brainstorming/possible proposal that you came up with?

 

It is a brainstorming... took 3 hours, but with the formula I set up (plus some tweaks where it would apply 0% to 1A, 20% to 2A, 40% to 3A, and 50% to 4A). It came out ok.

 

Some schools I couldn't figure out when they started football (Paxton (Jacksonville) and Stanton (Jacksonville)) in their modern forms.

Additionally, if a school made the playoffs in 2014, but not 2015, they didn't get the luxury of losing population 50 person from their population.

If a school hasn't made the playoffs ever, I used their starting state with the FHSAA (charter/private) or founding date (public schools). I know that you aren't eligible for playoffs your first two years, but it was easier.

 

8A would gain Venice, STA, Plant, Lakeland, Oakleaf, Buchholz, Armwood, Miami Central, Mainland, Niceville. Niceville would have to be sent down to 7A though due to travel (Martin County or Gainesville would take their place).

7A would gain Jesuit, American-Heritage (Plantation), Bishop Moore

6A would have a lot of middle of the road type teams.

5A would gain 8A Homestead (the team that fell the furthest in 8A, but they should have been a 6A to begin with so it evens out), 7A Forest Hill falls all the way to 5A.

4A would gain 6A Englewood (Jacksonville) and Blake (Tampa), they would also gain 3A American Heritage (Delray) who almost climbs to 5A.

3A would gain 5A Paxon, Satellite, and Port St. Lucie

2A would gain 4A PK Yonge, Interlachen, and 5A Stanton who I put their modern form starting in 1981 and they haven't been in the playoffs.

 

I added 75 students for each round of the playoffs you made it in 2014 and 2015. So a state champion and a state runner-up both would receive 375 students.

I subtracted 50 students for every consecutive year out of the playoffs since 2015, but not counting 2014.

 

Just over half would not change their classifications.

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It is a brainstorming... took 3 hours, but with the formula I set up (plus some tweaks where it would apply 0% to 1A, 20% to 2A, 40% to 3A, and 50% to 4A). It came out ok.

 

Some schools I couldn't figure out when they started football (Paxton (Jacksonville) and Stanton (Jacksonville)) in their modern forms.

Additionally, if a school made the playoffs in 2014, but not 2015, they didn't get the luxury of losing population 50 person from their population.

If a school hasn't made the playoffs ever, I used their starting state with the FHSAA (charter/private) or founding date (public schools). I know that you aren't eligible for playoffs your first two years, but it was easier.

 

8A would gain Venice, STA, Plant, Lakeland, Oakleaf, Buchholz, Armwood, Miami Central, Mainland, Niceville. Niceville would have to be sent down to 7A though due to travel (Martin County or Gainesville would take their place).

7A would gain Jesuit, American-Heritage (Plantation), Bishop Moore

6A would have a lot of middle of the road type teams.

5A would gain 8A Homestead (the team that fell the furthest in 8A, but they should have been a 6A to begin with so it evens out), 7A Forest Hill falls all the way to 5A.

4A would gain 6A Englewood (Jacksonville) and Blake (Tampa), they would also gain 3A American Heritage (Delray) who almost climbs to 5A.

3A would gain 5A Paxon, Satellite, and Port St. Lucie

2A would gain 4A PK Yonge, Interlachen, and 5A Stanton who I put their modern form starting in 1981 and they haven't been in the playoffs.

 

I added 75 students for each round of the playoffs you made it in 2014 and 2015. So a state champion and a state runner-up both would receive 375 students.

I subtracted 50 students for every consecutive year out of the playoffs since 2015, but not counting 2014.

 

Just over half would not change their classifications.

 

I see that in this proposal a team subtracts - 50 students every year that they do not make they playoffs since 2015.  How would you apply to an 8A program that has well over 3,000 kids, and likely will not make the playoffs for the next ten years but even minus the 50 students annually would still be a large 8A school.  Take 8A Ferguson for example with over 4200 students.  If they did not make the playoffs for the next 10 years (and held that enrollment), would they still be an 8A team with a 3700+ student body?  But the same formula applied to a school of 1,000 (not making the playoffs the next 10 years ) allows them to fall down a few classes?

 

  Minus 50 students to a student body of 1,000 is 5%, but only 1.25% to a student body of 4,000.  Much more advantageous for the smaller enrollment...  I feel like I am missing/not understanding part of the formula here for a scenario like this.

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I will use Forest Hill as my example since they are a 7A school, they haven't been in the playoffs for 19 years and as a result lost 950 students. They started as the 99th largest school, but after all the changes, they are now the 282nd largest school (with population changes for everyone). This is because they moved down more than other schools and many teams passed them in terms of population increases. 

As for Ferguson, they went from being the 2nd highest to being the 4th highest. And even if they lost as many as Forest Hill would still be the 14th highest.
Part of my idea is to recognize that school size is not the only factor that allows teams to be competitive. All of us would expect a horrible 8A team to be able to beat an average 2A if only due to size, but many of us would also recognize that an average 4A team could compete with and beat a bad 8A.

So basically my formula would recognize that size isn't everything, but it does play an important role in terms of competitiveness.

As for the 1000 person school (which is 4A), the change in population was only 50%. So for example, Booker T Washington which went to State Finals in 2014/2015 would have gained 600 population if they had been in 5A, but since they are in 4A (I only affected their population by 50% or 300). That is why they only moved up one classification instead of two if they had the full force of the population. 

It also isn't going to affect every school equally, for example. Columbia High School went from being one of the smallest schools in 7A to being a middle of the pack school in terms of weighted population, but Gainesville a school with 3 less students than Columbia rises from high 6A to almost 8A on the strength of their success the last two years. 

Of course, there is more that could happen. I could weight playoff runs over the past 10 years with last year's runs being worth 100%, 2014 being 90%, 2013 being 80%, and so on so teams who have long term success could move up higher. Additionally, I could make it for every 4 years that you miss the playoffs formula increases in numbers.

So to answer you specific query, would Ferguson ever fall to 7A, probably not. The formula could be tweaked of course, but with Ferguson so large they would need to lose nearly 2000 from their original population to make it to 7A.

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Actually...
In 2014, CHS lost in the first round. Gainesville lost in the regional finals. 1 round vs 3 rounds.

In 2015, CHS lost in the fourth round. Gainesville lost in the regional finals. 4 rounds vs 3 rounds. 

So in the past 2 years, GHS has made it to further on average or total rounds, but I get it. You want to lift your program by bringing down others.

But if you want to be more fair, since 2011 (when Coach Allen arrived), CHS has gone 7-5 in the playoffs. GHS has gone 11-5. Yes, CHS has beaten GHS 4 out of 5 times on the field, but we were talking about playoff success.

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Actually, you used the term more successful (not better) in your first post which have two different meanings. Gainesville over the past 5 years has been more successful (see playoff records). You might have been the better team (see head to head records), but vocabulary matters. 

My point is that success (and the system that I have created) reward success in playoffs. In case you were curious, if CHS even had one more round, they would have been nearly 8A just like GHS.

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I will use Forest Hill as my example since they are a 7A school, they haven't been in the playoffs for 19 years and as a result lost 950 students. They started as the 99th largest school, but after all the changes, they are now the 282nd largest school (with population changes for everyone). This is because they moved down more than other schools and many teams passed them in terms of population increases. 

 

As for Ferguson, they went from being the 2nd highest to being the 4th highest. And even if they lost as many as Forest Hill would still be the 14th highest.

Part of my idea is to recognize that school size is not the only factor that allows teams to be competitive. All of us would expect a horrible 8A team to be able to beat an average 2A if only due to size, but many of us would also recognize that an average 4A team could compete with and beat a bad 8A.

 

So basically my formula would recognize that size isn't everything, but it does play an important role in terms of competitiveness.

 

As for the 1000 person school (which is 4A), the change in population was only 50%. So for example, Booker T Washington which went to State Finals in 2014/2015 would have gained 600 population if they had been in 5A, but since they are in 4A (I only affected their population by 50% or 300). That is why they only moved up one classification instead of two if they had the full force of the population. 

 

It also isn't going to affect every school equally, for example. Columbia High School went from being one of the smallest schools in 7A to being a middle of the pack school in terms of weighted population, but Gainesville a school with 3 less students than Columbia rises from high 6A to almost 8A on the strength of their success the last two years. 

 

Of course, there is more that could happen. I could weight playoff runs over the past 10 years with last year's runs being worth 100%, 2014 being 90%, 2013 being 80%, and so on so teams who have long term success could move up higher. Additionally, I could make it for every 4 years that you miss the playoffs formula increases in numbers.

 

So to answer you specific query, would Ferguson ever fall to 7A, probably not. The formula could be tweaked of course, but with Ferguson so large they would need to lose nearly 2000 from their original population to make it to 7A.

 

 

Perhaps you could use a flat % rate of student body.  For example - 5% of student body....In the event of a team not making the playoffs this would be eqivalent to -50 students for an enrollment of 1,000 and -200 students for an enrollment of 4,000.  You could also apply a flat % rate to making the playoffs and/or winning regionals/states etc...

 

In short I think the flat % rate could be worth looking at or tweaking...

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Broward,

 

Thank you for your suggestion.

 

I did 5% of the population (if you don't make the playoffs) and it ends up being a little screwy.

2A is a mess and would lead to more mass defections than currently. The 4 lowest teams overall are Stanton, Port St. Lucie, 8A Colonial, Interlachen and 2 more in the lowest 8 are Satellite and Paxon. Those were all in 2A. 

Colonial dropping 6 classes make me question it. Some of the other teams in 2A would be PK Yonge, St John Paul II (Boca), Interlachen, Lake Placid, Satellite, Paxon, Stanton, Port St. Lucie, and Forest Hill along with some of the other smaller/less successful 2A teams.

As for Ferguson, they only dropped to the 21 largest population, so they are still 8A.

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Broward,

 

Thank you for your suggestion.

 

I did 5% of the population (if you don't make the playoffs) and it ends up being a little screwy.

2A is a mess and would lead to more mass defections than currently. The 4 lowest teams overall are Stanton, Port St. Lucie, 8A Colonial, Interlachen and 2 more in the lowest 8 are Satellite and Paxon. Those were all in 2A.

 

Colonial dropping 6 classes make me question it. Some of the other teams in 2A would be PK Yonge, St John Paul II (Boca), Interlachen, Lake Placid, Satellite, Paxon, Stanton, Port St. Lucie, and Forest Hill along with some of the other smaller/less successful 2A teams.

 

As for Ferguson, they only dropped to the 21 largest population, so they are still 8A.

I see what you mean....

I think the heavier populated (2,800+) 8A schools that are generally average teams would be forever trapped in 8a which would get even more competitive than it is now. In theory after 5 years with this formula wouldn't you have 95% of the state's top teams in 8A?

South Florida 8A would be an absolute bloodbath...

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Of course, there are other things that could be done. Every 8 years of a lack of playoff, you move down one classification automatically. You win a state championship you move up.

And yes, 8A would be a bloodbath, but at the same time that is what the FHSAA is trying to do. They want exciting regular games. Exciting games come from tradition/rivalry and competitive play. The current system doesn't have competitive play due to the fact that we are basing "competition" solely on how big your school is, not on how well they play throughout the years.

Would a school like University Christian or even Trinity Christian or Booker T Washington ever make it up to 8A, doubtful. But UC as a 3A/4A, TC as a 5A, BTW as a 6A or 7A school would all be fair.

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