MaxPreps reliability?

[Dr. D]

This question was not directed to me, so I am replying to @Perspective in a different thread.  The question was, "Josh, with respect to the FHSAA playoff power rankings, will the FHSAA reveal the formula that it will be using?  They've been known to make mistakes in the past.  How can anyone double-check the rankings without knowing the formula?"

The following is from Josh's report of the most recent FHSAA Football Advisory Council meeting, and represents what I believe to be the position of the FHSAA in this regard, "Questions about what the formula looks like or any insights into how the MaxPreps rankings work were brought up, but was addressed once more that it is a proprietary formula owned by MaxPreps." 

The entire article is here: https://floridahsfootball.com/2024/01/11/nil-playoff-rankings-classifications-summer-padded-camps-among-topics-discussed-at-fhsaa-football-advisory-committee-meeting/ 

Which makes it all the more puzzling to me why everyone seems okay with using MaxPreps to select and seed playoff teams.  How can anyone have confidence that the rankings will be accurate and reliable when they are not reproducible or verifiable (Statistics 101)?  Good luck explaining to your team and fans why you missed the playoffs because some top-secret algorithm decided your fate.      

[Perspective]

So, just to be clear, the FHSAA is going to tweak MaxPrep's proprietary formula is some way that no one will know about and that nobody will be able to reproduce or verify.   Makes sense to me. 

[Dr. D]

The analogy I use is this:  I hire you to work for my company.  After two weeks, I hand you a paycheck.  I don't tell you how many hours you worked or what your pay rate is.  You just have to take my word for it that you are being paid correctly.  Of course, no employee would accept that.  But the FHSAA has ceded control of its playoff process to a computer closet in California, and you just have to trust them that your team is being evaluated correctly.  Makes perfect sense.  

[Sthatch11]

23 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

The analogy I use is this:  I hire you to work for my company.  After two weeks, I hand you a paycheck.  I don't tell you how many hours you worked or what your pay rate is.  You just have to take my word for it that you are being paid correctly.  Of course, no employee would accept that.  But the FHSAA has ceded control of its playoff process to a computer closet in California, and you just have to trust them that your team is being evaluated correctly.  Makes perfect sense.  

Would rather use the Massey rating system if Florida is going to use computer algorithms. 

[Cat_Scratch]

On 8/1/2024 at 4:08 PM, Perspective said:

So, just to be clear, the FHSAA is going to tweak MaxPrep's proprietary formula is some way that no one will know about and that nobody will be able to reproduce or verify.   Makes sense to me. 

Hummmm... Not sure that's a good idea.

[nolebull813]

Maxpreps is horrible. Check this out. 
 

McArthur,FL has Cypress Ridge TX on their schedule. But when you click on Cypress Ridge’s schedule they have McArthur listed twice for the same date. One from FL and one from TX

now obviously they are playing the one from Texas right up the street. But how the hell is it possible this could be listed like this? 
 

https://www.maxpreps.com/tx/houston/cypress-ridge-rams/football/schedule/

[Dr. D]

From Intro to Computing 101:  GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out. 

[nolebull813]

1 hour ago, Dr. D said:

From Intro to Computing 101:  GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out. 

It should be the name of maxpreps. 

[Nulli Secundus]

On 8/1/2024 at 1:54 PM, Dr. D said:

This question was not directed to me, so I am replying to @Perspective in a different thread.  The question was, "Josh, with respect to the FHSAA playoff power rankings, will the FHSAA reveal the formula that it will be using?  They've been known to make mistakes in the past.  How can anyone double-check the rankings without knowing the formula?"

The following is from Josh's report of the most recent FHSAA Football Advisory Council meeting, and represents what I believe to be the position of the FHSAA in this regard, "Questions about what the formula looks like or any insights into how the MaxPreps rankings work were brought up, but was addressed once more that it is a proprietary formula owned by MaxPreps." 

The entire article is here: https://floridahsfootball.com/2024/01/11/nil-playoff-rankings-classifications-summer-padded-camps-among-topics-discussed-at-fhsaa-football-advisory-committee-meeting/ 

Which makes it all the more puzzling to me why everyone seems okay with using MaxPreps to select and seed playoff teams.  How can anyone have confidence that the rankings will be accurate and reliable when they are not reproducible or verifiable (Statistics 101)?  Good luck explaining to your team and fans why you missed the playoffs because some top-secret algorithm decided your fate.      

After having watched an FHSAA meeting this year, it makes perfect sense when you don't think too hard about it.  

[Ray Icaza]

On 8/1/2024 at 1:54 PM, Dr. D said:

This question was not directed to me, so I am replying to @Perspective in a different thread.  The question was, "Josh, with respect to the FHSAA playoff power rankings, will the FHSAA reveal the formula that it will be using?  They've been known to make mistakes in the past.  How can anyone double-check the rankings without knowing the formula?"

The following is from Josh's report of the most recent FHSAA Football Advisory Council meeting, and represents what I believe to be the position of the FHSAA in this regard, "Questions about what the formula looks like or any insights into how the MaxPreps rankings work were brought up, but was addressed once more that it is a proprietary formula owned by MaxPreps." 

The entire article is here: https://floridahsfootball.com/2024/01/11/nil-playoff-rankings-classifications-summer-padded-camps-among-topics-discussed-at-fhsaa-football-advisory-committee-meeting/ 

Which makes it all the more puzzling to me why everyone seems okay with using MaxPreps to select and seed playoff teams.  How can anyone have confidence that the rankings will be accurate and reliable when they are not reproducible or verifiable (Statistics 101)?  Good luck explaining to your team and fans why you missed the playoffs because some top-secret algorithm decided your fate.      

Case in point is MaxPrep currently is showing OHS record at 0-1 as apparently Bishop Moore HS decided to post their supposed victory (21-20) over us at their place in the KOC.  I have included a direct quote from our HC prior to the game to a sports reporter in our newspaper ...... it reads as follows. “For us, it’s basically a dress rehearsal for the regular season,” Osceola Coach Eric Pinellas said, as his team will play at Bishop Moore in Orlando Friday. “If they elect to keep score, we’ll try to win, but we use kickoff games to get ready for every aspect of the regular season. I think at one point we were like 3-17 in spring and kickoff classic games and we made the playoffs in each of those years, so winning these exhibitions have never been a critical point for us.”

I did attend this game and have made little mention due to this fact as well as the fact that they never had the scoreboard on; no score, no time, no qtrs., etc.....  We played our 1's in the first half with the score at 13-0 Kowboys which should have been 17-0 had we not missed an extra point and barely missed a FG.  Our stats showed their starting QB Borg Jorgensen throwing for only 50 yards against our 1's in the first half, but he and the other QB's lit up our backup secondary and JV's for over 200 yards in the second half when they scored all their points.  We obviously wanted to look at personnel as we held out one of our best defenders in LB Elijah Melendez (Miami commit) during the first quarter for "Non-medical" reasons.  We were also down 2 starting OL including  D1 prospect Marcus Ferrer (6'7" -305) as well as rotating QB's equally as part of the competition to who starts.  Our DL is extremely deep and although we played everyone, they couldn't run the ball as reflected in a total of 39 yards on the ground for the entire game.  I assume their HC took great pride in this "WIN" which is laughable yet heralded by the Sentinel as a great comeback.  Things are not always as they seem.  Just my take.