Florida HS's Outgunned on National Stage

[OldSchoolLion]

Below are the results of 20 games played in recent years by some of Florida’s top high school teams against top-ranked, out-of-state competition.  Florida schools were 5-15 in those games, and were outscored 487-279.  On average, out-of-state teams scored 24 points, versus 14 points scored by Florida schools.

There is no way Florida teams can expect to consistently beat teams of this caliber averaging only 14 points per game.  We certainly don’t lack talent on the offensive side of the ball, so what is missing?  

Chandler (AZ) 55 vs Northwestern 20

Bishop Gorman (NV) 24 vs Miami Central 20

Dematha (MD) 38 vs Miami Central 14

Miami Central 24 vs Hoover (AL) 21

St Joseph (NJ) 44 vs Deerfield Beach 21

Colquitt County (GA) 42 vs Plant 8

Bishop Gorman (NV) 46 vs Cocoa 10

St Edward (OH) 24 vs Cocoa 14

Buford (GA) 17 vs Trinity Christian 0

Archbishop Wood (PA) 14 vs Oxbridge 13

St Thomas Aquinas 9 vs St John Bosco (CA) 3 (OT – Aquinas scored 3 in regulation)

Centennial (AZ) 12 vs St Thomas Aquinas 0

Bishop Gorman (AZ) 25 vs St Thomas Aquinas 24 (3 OT’s –Aquinas scored 10 in regulation)  

Don Bosco (NJ) 24 vs St Thomas Aquinas 7

American Heritage(PL) 14 vs Bishop Sullivan (VA) 7

American Heritage(PL) 17 vs Colquitt County (GA) 14

American Heritage(PL) 21 vs Don Bosco (NJ) 0

Dematha (MD) 23 vs American Heritage 22

Marist (GA) 17 vs Godby 14 (Godby was state runner-up that year)

Bergen Catholic(NJ) 37 vs American Heritage(Delray) 7 (AH was state runner-up that year)

[Sharkbait]

I think coaching is probably the biggest difference.  It seems to me that coaches here rely so much on the athletic ability of their players that they don't focus as much on fundamentals and discipline.  I know some of the schools on the list have really good coaches but during the season you play a lot of poorly coached teams and you end up ill-prepared for a well coached team that matches you athletically.

[DB4]

Coaching is the biggest difference period. And in the cases where coaching is negligible, the other team actually does have more talent.

[peezy28]

On 12/28/2017 at 1:46 PM, OldSchoolLion said:

Bishop Gorman (NV) 24 vs Miami Central 20

You got your score mixed up.  Miami Central beat BG this year 24-20

[OldSchoolLion]

9 minutes ago, peezy28 said:

You got your score mixed up.  Miami Central beat BG this year 24-20

You are right!  So, statement should have read ...

Florida schools were 6-14 in those games, and were outscored 483-283.  On average, out-of-state teams scored 24 points, versus 14 points scored by Florida schools.

The error didn't have an effect on the average points per game or the overall trend.  

 

If we look further back in time than what I did above, Central has gone 8-2 versus out-of-state opponents.   That's an amazing feat to travel and win games like these, including a few blowout victories against solid programs. 

Dematha(MD) 14-38

Hoover(AL) 24-21

Stephenson(GA) 21-20

Don Bosco(NJ) 50-21

Grayson(GA) 3-35

Elder(OH) 24-21

Camden County(GA) 42-45

Madison(TX) 48-6

Prattville(AL) 49-28

[DisabledAccount]

Coaching in the state overall isn't as good as in other power states because money isn't put into it the way it should 

[NewEraFball]

On 1/2/2018 at 7:27 PM, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Coaching in the state overall isn't as good as in other power states because money isn't put into it the way it should 

It's almost a joke at how bad the coaching is in the state. You look at the caliber of players and you think to yourself "wow, if only they were getting coached up" I know I say that all the time when traveling to different games on Friday nights. Being a retired coach from a different state, it's hard to watch. Almost makes me want to get back into it to see what could happen. 

[DisabledAccount]

30 minutes ago, footballfan56 said:

It's almost a joke at how bad the coaching is in the state. You look at the caliber of players and you think to yourself "wow, if only they were getting coached up" I know I say that all the time when traveling to different games on Friday nights. Being a retired coach from a different state, it's hard to watch. Almost makes me want to get back into it to see what could happen. 

Maybe time to dust off the headset

[BigSandwich]

I think it would be interesting to compare the size of the schools playing.

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, BigSandwich said:

I think it would be interesting to compare the size of the schools playing.

Student population of each school is listed before the name of each team and is bolded.  After reviewing the data, I don't think we can say that Florida teams lost a disproportionate number of games simply because we were playing much larger schools.  In some cases, our school won games in which they had distinct size advantages.

• The smaller school won 12/20 games.
• The Florida school had a larger population in 14/20 games. 
• Italicized below are 11 games in which the schools involved had very large differences in student populations.  The Florida team had the larger population in 7 of those games.
• Of the 6 games Florida teams won, the Florida school was the larger school in 4 of those games.  In 3 of those 4 games, the Florida team had a much larger population than the losing team.  
• Underlined below are the 3 games in which visiting Florida teams lost to a school with a much larger population.    

3176 Chandler (AZ) 55 vs 1503 Northwestern 20

1702 Miami Central 24 vs 1500 Bishop Gorman (NV) 20

800 Dematha (MD) 38 vs 1702 Miami Central 14

1702 Miami Central 24 vs 2823 Hoover (AL) 21

683 St Joseph (NJ) 44 vs 2476 Deerfield Beach 21

1704 Colquitt County (GA) 42 vs 2399 Plant 8

1500 Bishop Gorman (NV) 46 vs 1048 Cocoa 10

963 St Edward (OH) 24 vs 1048 Cocoa 14

1150 Buford (GA) 17 vs 428 Trinity Christian 0

1100+ Archbishop Wood (PA) 14 vs 535 Oxbridge 13

2109 St Thomas Aquinas 9 vs 820 St John Bosco (CA) 3 (OT – Aquinas scored 3 in regulation)

2096 Centennial (AZ) 12 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 0

1500 Bishop Gorman (AZ) 25 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 24 (3 OT’s –Aquinas scored 10 in regulation)  

871 Don Bosco (NJ) 24 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 7

1506 American Heritage(PL) 14 vs 429 Bishop Sullivan (VA) 7

1506 American Heritage(PL) 17 vs 1704 Colquitt County (GA) 14

1506 American Heritage(PL) 21 vs 871 Don Bosco (NJ) 0

800 Dematha (MD) 23 vs 1506 American Heritage(PL) 22

1071 Marist (GA) 17 vs 1267 Godby 14 (Godby was state runner-up that year)

745 Bergen Catholic(NJ) 37 vs 865 American Heritage(Delray) 7 (AH was state runner-up that year)

[OldSchoolLion]

2 hours ago, footballfan56 said:

It's almost a joke at how bad the coaching is in the state. You look at the caliber of players and you think to yourself "wow, if only they were getting coached up" I know I say that all the time when traveling to different games on Friday nights. Being a retired coach from a different state, it's hard to watch. Almost makes me want to get back into it to see what could happen. 

...the dynasties in Florida football-Bolles, Aquinas, Lakeland, Armwood, Manatee....  What do they have in common?  ...one thing for sure, and that is a coach who was there for a LONG time building up the program.  And, in most cases, it took them a while before they were winning state championships.

Look outside the state at programs like Mater Dei, Don Bosco, De La Salle...again, legendary coaches with long tenures.

I believe this is one reason private schools sometimes have an edge.  The "family" feel at these places often enables them to retain coaches who feel a great investment in the school, far beyond just a job.  In some cases, it is like a vocation.  And these coaches are masters at emphasizing the fundamentals.  How many times have we seen a much more talented team get absolutely dismantled by a smaller opponent who plays very disciplined football, ie Dematha beating Central in 2015 and St Joseph beating Deerfield Beach this year.  

Unfortunately, in today's world of "win all or nothing" and instant gratification, with players and coaches moving much more frequently, I think we will see less of these great dynastiessustained.   

 

[Tigers2017]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Student population of each school is listed before the name of each team and is bolded.  After reviewing the data, I don't think we can say that Florida teams lost a disproportionate number of games simply because we were playing much larger schools.  In some cases, our school won games in which they had distinct size advantages.

• The smaller school won 12/20 games.
• The Florida school had a larger population in 14/20 games. 
• Italicized below are 11 games in which the schools involved had very large differences in student populations.  The Florida team had the larger population in 7 of those games.
• Of the 6 games Florida teams won, the Florida school was the larger school in 4 of those games.  In 3 of those 4 games, the Florida team had a much larger population than the losing team.  
• Underlined below are the 3 games in which visiting Florida teams lost to a school with a much larger population.    

3176 Chandler (AZ) 55 vs 1503 Northwestern 20

1702 Miami Central 24 vs 1500 Bishop Gorman (NV) 20

800 Dematha (MD) 38 vs 1702 Miami Central 14

1702 Miami Central 24 vs 2823 Hoover (AL) 21

683 St Joseph (NJ) 44 vs 2476 Deerfield Beach 21

1704 Colquitt County (GA) 42 vs 2399 Plant 8

1500 Bishop Gorman (NV) 46 vs 1048 Cocoa 10

963 St Edward (OH) 24 vs 1048 Cocoa 14

1150 Buford (GA) 17 vs 428 Trinity Christian 0

1100+ Archbishop Wood (PA) 14 vs 535 Oxbridge 13

2109 St Thomas Aquinas 9 vs 820 St John Bosco (CA) 3 (OT – Aquinas scored 3 in regulation)

2096 Centennial (AZ) 12 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 0

1500 Bishop Gorman (AZ) 25 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 24 (3 OT’s –Aquinas scored 10 in regulation)  

871 Don Bosco (NJ) 24 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 7

1506 American Heritage(PL) 14 vs 429 Bishop Sullivan (VA) 7

1506 American Heritage(PL) 17 vs 1704 Colquitt County (GA) 14

1506 American Heritage(PL) 21 vs 871 Don Bosco (NJ) 0

800 Dematha (MD) 23 vs 1506 American Heritage(PL) 22

1071 Marist (GA) 17 vs 1267 Godby 14 (Godby was state runner-up that year)

745 Bergen Catholic(NJ) 37 vs 865 American Heritage(Delray) 7 (AH was state runner-up that year)

What if it an All Boys school?  Do you double the number?

[DisabledAccount]

19 minutes ago, Tigers2017 said:

What if it an All Boys school?  Do you double the number?

Yes

 

Columbus is a example of that rule 

[Tigers2017]

4 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Yes

 

Columbus is a example of that rule 

St Eds OH is too...that would them 1926 in enrollment 

[OldSchoolLion]

2 hours ago, Tigers2017 said:

St Eds OH is too...that would them 1926 in enrollment 

...and St Joseph's is all-male, too.  FYI-I did not double the numbers of the all male schools above.

Interestingly, Mainland traveled to St Eds and played them the week after St Eds beat Cocoa.  Mainland lost 47-28.  I guess Mainland had a population around 2000 then. And they were ranked pretty high that year.  Theironly other loss was to Central in the playoffs.

Of the two variables, school size and home-field advantage, I think the latter plays a bigger role(assuming we are talking a "strong" smaller school team).  If Chandler played Northwestern at Traz Powell, I think it would have been a very different game.  

Dr Phillips is the poster child for a "big" school with 3800 students.  I can think of a number of teams about half their size that I would pick over Dr P if the smaller school had home field advantage.  

I guess we do need to be a bit careful when using school populations for comparisons, because that assumes proportionately sized rosters and a "depth" advantage for the larger school..  I'd be willing to bet there are teams in Texas with fewer students than Dr P that dress out more kids.

Going back to the original point, we have sent teams from 3A, 4A, 5A, 6A, 7A and 8A up against out-of-state opponents and in many cases struggled to put enough points on the board to win games.  It's surprising when we are supposed to have the best overall talent and speed in the country.      

   

 

[badbird]

we don't have the best coaches or the best facilities to train the players. We also don't get a ton of support from administration to make football better.  

[BigSandwich]

On 1/5/2018 at 11:12 AM, OldSchoolLion said:

Student population of each school is listed before the name of each team and is bolded.  After reviewing the data, I don't think we can say that Florida teams lost a disproportionate number of games simply because we were playing much larger schools.  In some cases, our school won games in which they had distinct size advantages.

• The smaller school won 12/20 games.
• The Florida school had a larger population in 14/20 games. 
• Italicized below are 11 games in which the schools involved had very large differences in student populations.  The Florida team had the larger population in 7 of those games.
• Of the 6 games Florida teams won, the Florida school was the larger school in 4 of those games.  In 3 of those 4 games, the Florida team had a much larger population than the losing team.  
• Underlined below are the 3 games in which visiting Florida teams lost to a school with a much larger population.    

3176 Chandler (AZ) 55 vs 1503 Northwestern 20

1702 Miami Central 24 vs 1500 Bishop Gorman (NV) 20

800 Dematha (MD) 38 vs 1702 Miami Central 14

1702 Miami Central 24 vs 2823 Hoover (AL) 21

683 St Joseph (NJ) 44 vs 2476 Deerfield Beach 21

1704 Colquitt County (GA) 42 vs 2399 Plant 8

1500 Bishop Gorman (NV) 46 vs 1048 Cocoa 10

963 St Edward (OH) 24 vs 1048 Cocoa 14

1150 Buford (GA) 17 vs 428 Trinity Christian 0

1100+ Archbishop Wood (PA) 14 vs 535 Oxbridge 13

2109 St Thomas Aquinas 9 vs 820 St John Bosco (CA) 3 (OT – Aquinas scored 3 in regulation)

2096 Centennial (AZ) 12 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 0

1500 Bishop Gorman (AZ) 25 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 24 (3 OT’s –Aquinas scored 10 in regulation)  

871 Don Bosco (NJ) 24 vs 2109 St Thomas Aquinas 7

1506 American Heritage(PL) 14 vs 429 Bishop Sullivan (VA) 7

1506 American Heritage(PL) 17 vs 1704 Colquitt County (GA) 14

1506 American Heritage(PL) 21 vs 871 Don Bosco (NJ) 0

800 Dematha (MD) 23 vs 1506 American Heritage(PL) 22

1071 Marist (GA) 17 vs 1267 Godby 14 (Godby was state runner-up that year)

745 Bergen Catholic(NJ) 37 vs 865 American Heritage(Delray) 7 (AH was state runner-up that year)

How about the Public vs Private variable.  Are recruiting rules different in some of these states?

[Sonofablitz]

A big part of it is Florida's penchant for hiring " big name" former players that arent coaches. Just because you played in college or the NFL does not mean you are a great football coach. Football is also not a priority in most places because its not really a southern state. High school football is not huge up north, and Florida is overrun by people from the North. Lots of factors in this.

[954gator]

You kind of just selectively picked Fl's losses.   There are a ton of big wins that you could add that would make the list look great.  

Lakeland>DLS

STA>DLS

STA>Byrnes Sc

STA>Elder Oh

STA>Pratville Al

MNW>South Lake Carrol TX

BTW>Cedar Hill Tx

STA>Bingham

STA> Skyline TX

STA>Camden County GA

BTW>Bingham UT

BTW> Bishop Gorman NV

Armwood>Bishop Gorman

BTW>Norcross 

Cocoa>Abeline Tx

Lakeland> Pittsburg Central Catholic Pa

Glades Central> Skyline TX

BTW> Summerville SC

Miami team (Pace I think)> St. John Bosco Ca

Ocseola>Carson Ca

Cocoa>Olive Branch Ms

Cocoa> Thomas Jefferson Pa

Cocoa> Bergen Catholic NJ

Pahokee>Wayne Hills NJ

Viera>Gonzaga

AHP>Liberty NV

Hallandale>Cedar Grove Ga

Coconut Creek>Marist Ga

 

I mean you add some of those in and it looks much better no?    I'm sure there are plenty more.   I agree though Fl coaching in general is substandard compared to most of those big programs.    It is what it is. 

[954gator]

 

[954gator]

The arizona games this year for sure they were a surprise, but let's not go overboard.

[OldSchoolLion]

2 hours ago, Sonofablitz said:

A big part of it is Florida's penchant for hiring " big name" former players that arent coaches. Just because you played in college or the NFL does not mean you are a great football coach. Football is also not a priority in most places because its not really a southern state. High school football is not huge up north, and Florida is overrun by people from the North. Lots of factors in this.

...might want to be a bit careful with the statement about football"up north."  I am a Florida native, so am not being defensive because I am a Yankee  But some of my friends from Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, etc would likely beg to differ. Most folks know about Ohio  hs football, but even Indiana will pull 20-25,000 to a single state title game.   

Some of those Florida transplants could probably be big fans, but am not sure how well coaches and administration reach out to their local communities and draw them in to become supporters.  I wonder how many of the teams that won state titles this year had some sort of community event to celebrate their achievement?

There is another issue I'll put on the table that may affect participation/support levels-demographics.  This is a touchy one.  I recently saw a presentation of the top 25 players in south Florida in 2018.  Every single player appeared to be Black.  In Dade/Broward/Palm Beach counties, I believe the Black population is around 15%, so a disproportionate number of the top players are Black. 

Where I lived in Georgia, the population was about 50%White/50%Black.  And the team rosters often mirrored that.  In south Florida, we have some predominantly White/Latin schools whose teams are mostly Black.  As I said, this is touchy, but it is reality.   A long time ago, the NBA lost a big following when the league became increasingly dominated by Black players. Certain fans had problems relating to the game.  I can see the same phenomenon occurring in areas where team rosters do not mirror the demographics.

I am not saying it is right or wrong.  It is what it is.  Some people are naturally uncomfortable being in the minority, be it a player or a fan.

[OldSchoolLion]

41 minutes ago, 954gator said:

You kind of just selectively picked Fl's losses.   There are a ton of big wins that you could add that would make the list look great.  

Lakeland>DLS

STA>DLS

STA>Byrnes Sc

STA>Elder Oh

STA>Pratville Al

MNW>South Lake Carrol TX

BTW>Cedar Hill Tx

STA>Bingham

STA> Skyline TX

STA>Camden County GA

BTW>Bingham UT

BTW> Bishop Gorman NV

Armwood>Bishop Gorman

BTW>Norcross 

Cocoa>Abeline Tx

Lakeland> Pittsburg Central Catholic Pa

Glades Central> Skyline TX

BTW> Summerville SC

Miami team (Pace I think)> St. John Bosco Ca

Ocseola>Carson Ca

Cocoa>Olive Branch Ms

Cocoa> Thomas Jefferson Pa

Cocoa> Bergen Catholic NJ

Pahokee>Wayne Hills NJ

Viera>Gonzaga

AHP>Liberty NV

Hallandale>Cedar Grove Ga

Coconut Creek>Marist Ga

 

I mean you add some of those in and it looks much better no?    I'm sure there are plenty more.   I agree though Fl coaching in general is substandard compared to most of those big programs.    It is what it is. 

...appreciate the history above, 954gator.  I mentioned in my initial post, "Below are the results of 20 games played in recent years by some of Florida’s top high school teams."

I only went back a few years(I think until 2015, and the majority of the games you mention were prior to that).  And I tried to keep the list to highly ranked opponents.  And it certainly wasn't my intent for it to be an exhaustive list. I fully admit I may have missed some, wins or losses.   So, my list was meant to be a "sampling" of data.  If I missed a bunch of high profile, OOS "wins" since 2015, please remind me and I'll add them in and we'll see if the conclusions changes.  

It's quite possible if we did an exhaustive study over a greater period of time Florida might look "better."  Even with the limited sample size,  I thought there was enough evidence to say "Hey, we are not scoring points like you would think our high-powered Florida talent should be."  

Maybe our limited success is a more recent phenomenon and, if so, it begs the question, "What has changed, if anything?"  In other words, have other states caught up or are Florida schools declining?  

If some of those games were repeated today,I think the result would be very different.  For instance, if any of the Lakeland teams of the past three seasons traveled to CA and played any of the De La Salle teams of the past three seasons, I believe they would have gotten blown out.  ...same thing for BTW vs Gorman.

 

[954gator]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

...appreciate the history above, 954gator.  I mentioned in my initial post, "Below are the results of 20 games played in recent years by some of Florida’s top high school teams."

I only went back a few years(I think until 2015, and the majority of the games you mention were prior to that).  And I tried to keep the list to highly ranked opponents.  And it certainly wasn't my intent for it to be an exhaustive list. I fully admit I may have missed some, wins or losses.   So, my list was meant to be a "sampling" of data.  If I missed a bunch of high profile, OOS "wins" since 2015, please remind me and I'll add them in and we'll see if the conclusions changes.  

It's quite possible if we did an exhaustive study over a greater period of time Florida might look "better."  Even with the limited sample size,  I thought there was enough evidence to say "Hey, we are not scoring points like you would think our high-powered Florida talent should be."  

Maybe our limited success is a more recent phenomenon and, if so, it begs the question, "What has changed, if anything?"  In other words, have other states caught up or are Florida schools declining?  

If some of those games were repeated today,I think the result would be very different.  For instance, if any of the Lakeland teams of the past three seasons traveled to CA and played any of the De La Salle teams of the past three seasons, I believe they would have gotten blown out.  ...same thing for BTW vs Gorman.

 

Well to be honest I think the last couple years a lot of FL teams are venturing OOS, and a bunch of them are big underdogs.  I think Nolebull posted how difficult the matchups were for FL this year, but I think it's great for those teams to go out and get that type of experience.   Still, Fl has done decent.    The big surprises, at least to me were the two AZ games.    

I mean FL teams beat.... top 2 Cali team, BG, gave IMG their closest match (shoulda won) etc etc.  When you have so many teams from one state scheduling up you're going to lose a bunch.   Definitely think FL coaching is WAY behind the big programs of other states, but what can you expect?   You get what you pay for.

[OldSchoolLion]

11 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Well to be honest I think the last couple years a lot of FL teams are venturing OOS, and a bunch of them are big underdogs.  I think Nolebull posted how difficult the matchups were for FL this year, but I think it's great for those teams to go out and get that type of experience.   Still, Fl has done decent.    The big surprises, at least to me were the two AZ games.    

I mean FL teams beat.... top 2 Cali team, BG, gave IMG their closest match (shoulda won) etc etc.  When you have so many teams from one state scheduling up you're going to lose a bunch.   Definitely think FL coaching is WAY behind the big programs of other states, but what can you expect?   You get what you pay for.

In addition to the AZ losses, the losses by Bartram Trail and Deerfield Beach were surprising for me.  At least for part of the season, those were considered two of our best larger (7A-8A) schools.  BT got beaten by a  much smaller, public school that did not make it past the second round of their playoffs.  I listened to a broadcast of the Deerfield game on line and it was worse than the score.  DB got destroyed by a much smaller, all boys school that finished with a good, but not stellar record.

From a team perspective, Florida is lacking depth.  Think about it, our second best 7A school could not even beat a "B-" team in Georgia  With as much talent as we have in Florida, I would expect the #2 7A school to be able to compete on a national level.