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SPCjessica2004

Class 3A, Round 2 happiness!

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Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs.  We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state.

Random things we've been meaning to comment on!

--> JaxTCA lost to Ocala Trinity 23-21 in round 1. We'll give OTC their due further down the page, but outside of the Pensacola Catholic  loss in 2012, this has to be the most disappointing loss for JaxTCA in years. Let's be real, nobody wants to play JaxTCA, so they had to play one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. There was reason for hope when they defeated Raines in week 11, but the damage had already been done prior to the playoffs starting. JaxTCA entered the playoffs with more bodies on the sideline than on the field.  We expected JaxTCA to roll through the playoffs, but it didn't happen.  While we think the 2020 JaxTCA team has one of the highest talent and athletic windows in the state, it's also going to have to play another impossible schedule.

--> We no longer live in a world where rankings can be based soley on records, but we also don't believe that just because a team plays a tough schedule they should be given a pass. Like a healthy diet, everything needs to be in moderation. We aren't suggesting 3A teams go play STA every week, but we aren't saying to load your schedule up with 4-6 teams who beat other 4-6 teams either.  This has been a hot topic issue all year.

--> We like the RPI system, but it needs tweaks to the OOWP. We have been in favor of combining 2A and 3A for years. Many 2A and 3A teams have natural rivalries and it doesn't change the geography of the state.

Okay, now let's look Class 3A Round 2. Note, there are two predictions. Ours on top and the Maxpreps Prediction. We did NOT look at Maxprep's predictions prior to making our picks!

Lakeland Christian (8-1) hosts Melbourne Central Catholic (4-6)

LCS started the season off slow, but picked up momentum and has won 7 in a row. MCC has had a rough season this year, but did manage a victory at Frostproof. The Hustlers are balanced on offense and somewhat stout on defense. In their loses teams have had success running the ball.  LCS has been rolling after a week 2 loss to Bishop Verot.  LCS was always our pick to come out of region 2. MCC fights hard, but LCS gets the W.   

LCS by 14
MP: LCS by 9

Pensacola Catholic (10-0) vs Ocala Trinity Catholic (8-2)

Rumors of OTC coming back to power were murmured in DM's, watercooler talk and noises in the night. After defeating JaxTCA the rumors have been verified, OTC is a legitimate football team again. Jamarian Samuel has been a superstar for OTC rushing for just over 2,200 yards and 23 TD's. We watched OTC vs Calvary Christian and even though OTC came up short on that night against a very good Calvary team, we knew they had potential to be great.

Pensacola Catholic is having the season expected of them. They're 10-0 with a hefty senior class. They have a couple of good wins to their name, but no marquee wins. This is a hard nosed, tough football team that can harass quarterbacks.  Catholic has one heck of a homefield advantage in this one. OTC has a 5.5 hour drive (One way), but if they can overcome the early emotion should pick up their second stellar win in a row.  

OTC by 7
MP: OTC by 1

Chaminade-Madonna (8-2) vs Somerset Academy (8-2)

The 2x defending state champions start the playoffs against a good, but over matched opponent. Somerset isn't technically a bad football team in relationship to what their aspirations are, but Chaminade is simply better. The Lions won't need it this week, but they will need to continue to develop Brady Allen and Alexander Law at QB for next week. Also good news, the Lions are pretty much 100% healthy at this point outside of Willie Moise. Kudos to Somerset for a good 8-2 record, but this is the biggest mis-match in all of the small school games in Florida this week. 

Chaminade by 49.
MP: Chaminade by 26

Miami Edison (6-5)  vs Calvary Christian Academy (9-1)

This game is a poster child for throwing out the records. Calvary is having a great season and did pull off quality wins over Benjamin and Miami Christian, but Miami Edison has played some of the best the state has to offer including Booker T, Northwestern, Carol City, Naples, Miami Central, Coral Gables.  Edison has taken some losses, but they did manage to compete in some of those games and even pulled off a win over Carol City.

Calvary has taken a few steps forward, but even with some lopsided losses we're going Miami Edison.  

Edison by 14.
MP: Edison by 4.

Benjamin School (8-3) at Bishop Verot (8-2)

This should be a good game as the Bishop Verot Vikings are having a good season this year having defeated Lakeland Christian, Tampa Catholic and North Ft. Myers. They competed well, but came up short against American Heritage and always tough Uschool.  Benjamin School hasn't been shabby themselves, their win over a good Cardinal Newman team last week was impressive and the Buccaneers have been consistent all season.

We think Bishop Verot has to much speed for Benjamin School, but the Bucs will make this a game. 

Bishop Verot by 10
MP: BV by 10

FSU-DRS (9-1) vs Episcopal School of Jacksonville (10-1)

On paper this game should favor FSU-DRS and Qb Willie Taggart Jr.  FSU's only loss was to super tough Madison County, Episcopal School was blown out earlier in the year by Baldwin but avenged that loss last week 35-25.  This is a high quality match-up, but we're going FSU-DRS in this one. FSU has played a significantly tougher schedule. We just think they have the passing attack to open this game. 

FSU-DRS by 20
MP: Episcopal by 20

Berkeley Prep (8-1) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (8-3)

There are many individuals around the state who feel that this Berkeley Prep team can win class 3A this year. They have a devastating 3 pronged rushing attack lead by one of the better linemen in the state Zach Perkins, a stout passing game and a defense giving up less than 10 points per game lead by one of the top linebackers in the country, Jaylen Harrell. Dom Ciao, the HC at Berkeley is one of the best coaches in the business. They have home field advantage against the teams they need it against and they also have a 21-14 win over CCC.

Of course, that win was in week 1. To say CCC has gotten better since their early season losses to Tampa Jesuit, Berkeley and Brentwood is an understatement. They are 8-1 since starting 0-2. They do hold wins over Clearwater, Uschool, Sebring and a rout of Tampa Catholic. CCC has clearly played a tougher schedule at this point.  We pegged Berkeley facing Calvary Christian in the regional finals playing a classic and surviving. Part of this is because we also felt Berkeley and Calvary were far and away better than the rest of the region. CCC put a running clock on Calvary in the third quarter. Berkeley is better than Calvary, but they aren't playing better than CCC right now. Still, Berkeley has had 2 weeks to prep for this match-up and that will be the difference.

Berkeley by 10
MP: Berkeley by 3

And because we have friends at Tampa Catholic! 4A!

Tampa Catholic (6-5) at American Heritage (5-5)

Tampa Catholic started off the season on fire at 2-0 and winning by a combined 78-14, then they faced 0-2 CCC who finally got healthy and was run off the field. That can be forgiven. TC then caught fire and won the next two games 125-0. They then lost to Berkeley Prep in a game they were down 21-16 with the ball under 2 minutes, but couldn't convert. Then they lost Winter Haven, then they lost to Bishop Verot and for the 20th consecutive year lost to Tampa Jesuit. 

The point? TC is very good at running the score up on bad teams, but not so good at scoring against good teams.   American Heritage is a good team that could be very good if not for being bit by the injury bug.  TC doesn't really have a signature win, but they have levels of competitiveness against good teams. Outside of the CCC game, they were at least in every other game until the 4th quarter.

My understanding is that AHD is finally healthy which doesn't bode well for TC. This is a shame because on paper, TC should be one of the top teams in the state but clearly something is holding them back.

AHD by 14
MP: AHD by 4



 

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5 minutes ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs.  We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state.

Random things we've been meaning to comment on!

--> JaxTCA lost to Ocala Trinity 23-21 in round 1. We'll give OTC their due further down the page, but outside of the Pensacola Catholic  loss in 2012, this has to be the most disappointing loss for JaxTCA in years. Let's be real, nobody wants to play JaxTCA, so they had to play one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. There was reason for hope when they defeated Raines in week 11, but the damage had already been done prior to the playoffs starting. JaxTCA entered the playoffs with more bodies on the sideline than on the field.  We expected JaxTCA to roll through the playoffs, but it didn't happen.  While we think the 2020 JaxTCA team has one of the highest talent and athletic windows in the state, it's also going to have to play another impossible schedule.

--> We no longer live in a world where rankings can be based soley on records, but we also don't believe that just because a team plays a tough schedule they should be given a pass. Like a healthy diet, everything needs to be in moderation. We aren't suggesting 3A teams go play STA every week, but we aren't saying to load your schedule up with 4-6 teams who beat other 4-6 teams either.  This has been a hot topic issue all year.

--> We like the RPI system, but it needs tweaks to the OOWP. We have been in favor of combining 2A and 3A for years. Many 2A and 3A teams have natural rivalries and it doesn't change the geography of the state.

Okay, now let's look Class 3A Round 2. Note, there are two predictions. Ours on top and the Maxpreps Prediction. We did NOT look at Maxprep's predictions prior to making our picks!

Lakeland Christian (8-1) hosts Melbourne Central Catholic (4-6)

LCS started the season off slow, but picked up momentum and has won 7 in a row. MCC has had a rough season this year, but did manage a victory at Frostproof. The Hustlers are balanced on offense and somewhat stout on defense. In their loses teams have had success running the ball.  LCS has been rolling after a week 2 loss to Bishop Verot.  LCS was always our pick to come out of region 2. MCC fights hard, but LCS gets the W.   

LCS by 14
MP: LCS by 9

Pensacola Catholic (10-0) vs Ocala Trinity Catholic (8-2)

Rumors of OTC coming back to power were murmured in DM's, watercooler talk and noises in the night. After defeating JaxTCA the rumors have been verified, OTC is a legitimate football team again. Jamarian Samuel has been a superstar for OTC rushing for just over 2,200 yards and 23 TD's. We watched OTC vs Calvary Christian and even though OTC came up short on that night against a very good Calvary team, we knew they had potential to be great.

Pensacola Catholic is having the season expected of them. They're 10-0 with a hefty senior class. They have a couple of good wins to their name, but no marquee wins. This is a hard nosed, tough football team that can harass quarterbacks.  Catholic has one heck of a homefield advantage in this one. OTC has a 5.5 hour drive (One way), but if they can overcome the early emotion should pick up their second stellar win in a row.  

OTC by 7
MP: OTC by 1

Chaminade-Madonna (8-2) vs Somerset Academy (8-2)

The 2x defending state champions start the playoffs against a good, but over matched opponent. Somerset isn't technically a bad football team in relationship to what their aspirations are, but Chaminade is simply better. The Lions won't need it this week, but they will need to continue to develop Brady Allen and Alexander Law at QB for next week. Also good news, the Lions are pretty much 100% healthy at this point outside of Willie Moise. Kudos to Somerset for a good 8-2 record, but this is the biggest mis-match in all of the small school games in Florida this week. 

Chaminade by 49.
MP: Chaminade by 26

Miami Edison (6-5)  vs Calvary Christian Academy (9-1)

This game is a poster child for throwing out the records. Calvary is having a great season and did pull off quality wins over Benjamin and Miami Christian, but Miami Edison has played some of the best the state has to offer including Booker T, Northwestern, Carol City, Naples, Miami Central, Coral Gables.  Edison has taken some losses, but they did manage to compete in some of those games and even pulled off a win over Carol City.

Calvary has taken a few steps forward, but even with some lopsided losses we're going Miami Edison.  

Edison by 14.
MP: Edison by 4.

Benjamin School (8-3) at Bishop Verot (8-2)

This should be a good game as the Bishop Verot Vikings are having a good season this year having defeated Lakeland Christian, Tampa Catholic and North Ft. Myers. They competed well, but came up short against American Heritage and always tough Uschool.  Benjamin School hasn't been shabby themselves, their win over a good Cardinal Newman team last week was impressive and the Buccaneers have been consistent all season.

We think Bishop Verot has to much speed for Benjamin School, but the Bucs will make this a game. 

Bishop Verot by 10
MP: BV by 10

FSU-DRS (9-1) vs Episcopal School of Jacksonville (10-1)

On paper this game should favor FSU-DRS and Qb Willie Taggart Jr.  FSU's only loss was to super tough Madison County, Episcopal School was blown out earlier in the year by Baldwin but avenged that loss last week 35-25.  This is a high quality match-up, but we're going FSU-DRS in this one. FSU has played a significantly tougher schedule. We just think they have the passing attack to open this game. 

FSU-DRS by 20
MP: Episcopal by 20

Berkeley Prep (8-1) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (8-3)

There are many individuals around the state who feel that this Berkeley Prep team can win class 3A this year. They have a devastating 3 pronged rushing attack lead by one of the better linemen in the state Zach Perkins, a stout passing game and a defense giving up less than 10 points per game lead by one of the top linebackers in the country, Jaylen Harrell. Dom Ciao, the HC at Berkeley is one of the best coaches in the business. They have home field advantage against the teams they need it against and they also have a 21-14 win over CCC.

Of course, that win was in week 1. To say CCC has gotten better since their early season losses to Tampa Jesuit, Berkeley and Brentwood is an understatement. They are 8-1 since starting 0-2. They do hold wins over Clearwater, Uschool, Sebring and a rout of Tampa Catholic. CCC has clearly played a tougher schedule at this point.  We pegged Berkeley facing Calvary Christian in the regional finals playing a classic and surviving. Part of this is because we also felt Berkeley and Calvary were far and away better than the rest of the region. CCC put a running clock on Calvary in the third quarter. Berkeley is better than Calvary, but they aren't playing better than CCC right now. Still, Berkeley has had 2 weeks to prep for this match-up and that will be the difference.

Berkeley by 10
MP: Berkeley by 3

And because we have friends at Tampa Catholic! 4A!

Tampa Catholic (6-5) at American Heritage (5-5)

Tampa Catholic started off the season on fire at 2-0 and winning by a combined 78-14, then they faced 0-2 CCC who finally got healthy and was run off the field. That can be forgiven. TC then caught fire and won the next two games 125-0. They then lost to Berkeley Prep in a game they were down 21-16 with the ball under 2 minutes, but couldn't convert. Then they lost Winter Haven, then they lost to Bishop Verot and for the 20th consecutive year lost to Tampa Jesuit. 

The point? TC is very good at running the score up on bad teams, but not so good at scoring against good teams.   American Heritage is a good team that could be very good if not for being bit by the injury bug.  TC doesn't really have a signature win, but they have levels of competitiveness against good teams. Outside of the CCC game, they were at least in every other game until the 4th quarter.

My understanding is that AHD is finally healthy which doesn't bode well for TC. This is a shame because on paper, TC should be one of the top teams in the state but clearly something is holding them back.

AHD by 14
MP: AHD by 4



 

Do 1A Madison king county.

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23 hours ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs.  We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state.
 

Great post, we really like reading your stuff.

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Trinity Catholic Celtics (8-3) @ Pensacola Catholic Crusaders (10-0)

2nd round of the 3A north playoffs

The Celtics will drive 6 hours this Friday to Pensacola. The last and only time the Celtics did this was in the 2010 playoffs and they defeated the Crusaders 21-14 and went on to defeat University School in the championship game.

Both teams have had a so so schedule. Certainly not tough but not exceptionally easy either.

Both teams rely upon their ground and pound game. Neither team's passing percentage is anything to write home about. .

Pensacola Catholic is running the problematic Pistol Wing-T formation. Problematic, that is, for opposing defenses. And they have two beasts for RB's. Big and fast. Their QB seems to run that formation to perfection (at least what I have seen on video). In one of the Celtic's past playoff games they faced Bolles and their infamous Wing T formation. They held Bolles to zero points until the 4th quarter when Bolles resorted to passing. The Celtics won.

My understanding of this formation is for the defensive players to "follow the ball" and not necessarily the player. I believe that was the modus operandi for the Celtics against the Wing-T.

My thoughts are that this is going to be a very difficult game for Trinity and will take their best effort to overcome the travel distance, opponent's field and fans, and probably the best team they will have faced all year. Can they do it, I don't know. Hope so. :unsure:

Game time: Clear and 44 Degrees. Get out your gloves and ear covering.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phfootball9 said:

Follow the ball??? Really it is my opinion that is the kiss of death against that offense. We have taught the lbers to cross read with great success. 

You have to realize that I am not a coach and am going by what  I have gathered from others. I do know that the 5-3 defense can mitigate the capabilities of the Wing-T allowing the LB's to flow to the ball as necessary.

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