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Preseason outlook (792 Sports/Columbiafan rankings [see page 6])


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5 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Yulee has quietly been picking up transfers in Nassau County

 

And of the teams you listed they are only above Atlantic Coast, Ponte Vedra and Jackson as I've said several times the tiers are not an exact order 

 

I'm not releasing any rankings with the exact team order until August, until then teams in the same tier are teams with the Same ranking 

 

Atlantic Coast has been good last few years but I think Sandalwood snatched a few of their kids, Ponte Vedra has been dropping hard the last few years, and Jackson is rising but they have in the past failed to keep teams from stealing their top players so I need to see that they are keeping talent together for them to break that stigma

Yulee picked up a bunch of transfer last season. They got 5-6 kids from Fernandina and still only won 4 games. They've picked up 1 kid from Fernandina this season and got a incoming freshman from there. I wouldn't say they've picked up a ton of top notch transfers. Their top kids are going to be seniors this year and it seems like they have a better coaching staff. I believe they will make the playoffs but I don't see them better than the stated teams. 

 

My misunderstanding thought you had them higher. But I would think AC would beat Yulee. Sandalwood is always getting kids but never really does anything with them. I would still say Ponte Vedra, AC and Jackson would beat Yulee. But obviously these are all opinions. 

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33 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Skyway, if memory serves me correct, I had the same concern and someone was able to explain to me how to change my settings so that the signature blocks won't show up on the posts.   My life is so much better now.  :D

SOMEBODY HELP ME DO THIS!!!!! :D

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18 minutes ago, skyway said:

SOMEBODY HELP ME DO THIS!!!!! :D

Go up to the upper right hand corner next to your screen name, and click on Settings > Account Settings > Signature.  Up at the top of that page, it has a toggle followed by:  "Show other people's signatures alongside their content ."  Click that to the "off" position.  

Let me know if that works. 

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2 hours ago, Perspective said:

Go up to the upper right hand corner next to your screen name, and click on Settings > Account Settings > Signature.  Up at the top of that page, it has a toggle followed by:  "Show other people's signatures alongside their content ."  Click that to the "off" position.  

Let me know if that works. 

It worked! Thanks a million!

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Speaking of preseason rankings, MaxPreps has released its initial power ratings, which the FHSAA Power Rankings will be derived from.  While I did not go through all 9 classifications, as an example, here are the 4S Top 15 rankings based on the MaxPreps power ratings:

1.  Venice
2.  Buchholz
3.  Palmetto
4.  Treasure Coast
5.  Nease
6.  Lehigh
7.  Melbourne
8.  Lake Gibson
9.  Riverview
10.  Bartram Trail
11.  Osceola
12.  Spruce Creek
13.  Lakeland
14.  University
15.  Gulf Breeze 

While there are 11 weeks of games to allow for recalibration, it is also true that where you start can affect where you finish.  Should we be confident that the FHSAA Power Rankings will be better than the previous RPI ranking system at effectively ranking teams for playoff seeding? 
 

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1 hour ago, Dr. D said:

Speaking of preseason rankings, MaxPreps has released its initial power ratings, which the FHSAA Power Rankings will be derived from.  While I did not go through all 9 classifications, as an example, here are the 4S Top 15 rankings based on the MaxPreps power ratings:

1.  Venice
2.  Buchholz
3.  Palmetto
4.  Treasure Coast
5.  Nease
6.  Lehigh
7.  Melbourne
8.  Lake Gibson
9.  Riverview
10.  Bartram Trail
11.  Osceola
12.  Spruce Creek
13.  Lakeland
14.  University
15.  Gulf Breeze 

While there are 11 weeks of games to allow for recalibration, it is also true that where you start can affect where you finish.  Should we be confident that the FHSAA Power Rankings will be better than the previous RPI ranking system at effectively ranking teams for playoff seeding? 
 

Words can't explain that monstrosity

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6 hours ago, Dr. D said:

Speaking of preseason rankings, MaxPreps has released its initial power ratings, which the FHSAA Power Rankings will be derived from.  While I did not go through all 9 classifications, as an example, here are the 4S Top 15 rankings based on the MaxPreps power ratings:

1.  Venice
2.  Buchholz
3.  Palmetto
4.  Treasure Coast
5.  Nease
6.  Lehigh
7.  Melbourne
8.  Lake Gibson
9.  Riverview
10.  Bartram Trail
11.  Osceola
12.  Spruce Creek
13.  Lakeland
14.  University
15.  Gulf Breeze 

While there are 11 weeks of games to allow for recalibration, it is also true that where you start can affect where you finish.  Should we be confident that the FHSAA Power Rankings will be better than the previous RPI ranking system at effectively ranking teams for playoff seeding? 
 

A few of those aren't too far from accurate but the ones that are wrong are pretty bad

 

I'm guessing that MaxPreps has yet to adjust for Lakeland's talent influx otherwise there's no excuse for them being 13th in that class when they will be top 10 in every state OVERALL poll 

 

Also that palmetto at #3 is the Miami one right? Otherwise that's a huge miss 

 

only 4 teams look right are Venice, Treasure Coast, Riverview (if that's the Sarasota one) and Bartram Trail

 

also Osceola is way too low and where's Vero Beach who just picked up a 4* QB via STA/Benjamin

 

(And yes Ik it's MaxPreps but it's nuts how bad their rankings are at the beginning of the season)

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9 hours ago, Dr. D said:

Speaking of preseason rankings, MaxPreps has released its initial power ratings, which the FHSAA Power Rankings will be derived from.  While I did not go through all 9 classifications, as an example, here are the 4S Top 15 rankings based on the MaxPreps power ratings:

1.  Venice
2.  Buchholz
3.  Palmetto
4.  Treasure Coast
5.  Nease
6.  Lehigh
7.  Melbourne
8.  Lake Gibson
9.  Riverview
10.  Bartram Trail
11.  Osceola
12.  Spruce Creek
13.  Lakeland
14.  University
15.  Gulf Breeze 

While there are 11 weeks of games to allow for recalibration, it is also true that where you start can affect where you finish.  Should we be confident that the FHSAA Power Rankings will be better than the previous RPI ranking system at effectively ranking teams for playoff seeding? 
 

Just curious where or how you found those rankings? I could not find them 

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To compile these rankings, I went to each team's individual page on MaxPreps, then to their 2022 Season Preview page.  There you can find their 2022 starting power ranking, along with their division, state and national rank.  I manually arranged each team in 4S by their power ranking (you're right - they are not in one place; and it would take a while to do all 9 classifications manually).

As for Columbia's questions, the #3 team is the 4S Palmetto Tigers; Miami Palmetto is #5 in 4M.  #9 is in fact Sarasota Riverview.  Vero Beach at #24 and Niceville at #26 also seemed like glaring omissions.

Interestingly, Lakeland is #23 and Venice is #37 in MaxPreps' "human" national rankings.

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12 hours ago, Dr. D said:

Speaking of preseason rankings, MaxPreps has released its initial power ratings, which the FHSAA Power Rankings will be derived from.  While I did not go through all 9 classifications, as an example, here are the 4S Top 15 rankings based on the MaxPreps power ratings:

1.  Venice
2.  Buchholz
3.  Palmetto
4.  Treasure Coast
5.  Nease
6.  Lehigh
7.  Melbourne
8.  Lake Gibson
9.  Riverview
10.  Bartram Trail
11.  Osceola
12.  Spruce Creek
13.  Lakeland
14.  University
15.  Gulf Breeze 

While there are 11 weeks of games to allow for recalibration, it is also true that where you start can affect where you finish.  Should we be confident that the FHSAA Power Rankings will be better than the previous RPI ranking system at effectively ranking teams for playoff seeding? 
 

And this is why you can’t believe anything Maxpreps says. Lehigh and Nease above Lakeland? Riverview above Osceola? Lake Gibson taking a backseat to Melbourne? Palmetto at number 4 overall? Vero Beach not even on the list? SMDH what a horrible take. It should be:

1. Lakeland

2. Osceola 

3. Lake Gibson 

4.  Venice

5. Buccolz 

6. Treasure Coast

7.  Bartram Trail

8. Niceville 

9. Vero Beach

10. Riverview

11. Palmetto

12. Manatee

13. Melbourne

14. Sarasota High 

15. Lehigh

 

 

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It's the calpreps computer, I assume. Those ratings heavily favor teams from other states. So games in recent history either against teams from those states, or against teams who've themselves played against teams from those states make a huge difference. Venice's games against IMG and SFA (both play teams from more valued states) in recent years figure to ensure a top rating for Venice throughout the season. )Without even looking, I bet Lehigh or its opponents in recent years have played teams from more valued states.)

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12 minutes ago, skyway said:

It's the calpreps computer, I assume. Those ratings heavily favor teams from other states. So games in recent history either against teams from those states, or against teams who've themselves played against teams from those states make a huge difference. Venice's games against IMG and SFA (both play teams from more valued states) in recent years figure to ensure a top rating for Venice throughout the season. )Without even looking, I bet Lehigh or its opponents in recent years have played teams from more valued states.)

No Lehigh is ranked because they have a 5* RB and since recruiting rankings are used heavily in preseason computer polls it's likely holding far too much weight than it should 

 

He's a good RB but so was Derrick Henry and we saw how much that helped Yulee

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On Lakeland's team preview page, they say they are "not yet rated" (even though they are at #127 nationally, better than Dr. D's list) at the link here. I couldn't post a screenshot because the file was too big. Despite listing all known players with 2 or more stars for the teams, the only major prospect they list for Lakeland is Tyler Williams, so they know literally nothing of Lakeland's roster, which is unsurprising. Calpreps- which is what the Maxpreps "power" ratings are, predictably has 5 of the top 8 teams nationally, and 7 of the top 12, from...California. So, as I said above, playing a team from CA, or playing a team who's played a team from CA in recent years (doesn't have to be the present year) makes a HUGE difference. SFA has played multiple CA teams in recent years. So, with margin of victory/defeat not factoring in, Venice losing 56-0 to SFA will be a MASSIVE boost to Venice's calpreps/maxpreps ratings. LOL

 

 

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1 minute ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

No Lehigh is ranked because they have a 5* RB and since recruiting rankings are used heavily in preseason computer polls it's likely holding far too much weight than it should 

 

He's a good RB but so was Derrick Henry and we saw how much that helped Yulee

He's not as highly rated a player as Cormani McClain. Of course, calpreps doesn't know who he plays for :rolleyes:

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1 minute ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

But at least I feel good about my rankings because I did better than these trash computers can do 

 

Columbia fan 1

Computer virus poll 0

It's a shame that the folks who voted to use Calpreps for playoff seeding were utterly ignorant as to what calpreps is and how it works. You can bet not one of them even knows it's calpreps: they think it's "Maxpreps" and don't get it. :P

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15 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

No Lehigh is ranked because they have a 5* RB and since recruiting rankings are used heavily in preseason computer polls it's likely holding far too much weight than it should 

 

He's a good RB but so was Derrick Henry and we saw how much that helped Yulee

The key for Lehigh is that the year before last, they played (lost 52-14) STA and had several common opponents with Miami Central. Both STA and MC have games in recent years with both CA teams and other teams who've played CA teams. THAT is why Lehigh shows up high now when factoring in the RB.

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27 minutes ago, skyway said:

It's a shame that the folks who voted to use Calpreps for playoff seeding were utterly ignorant as to what calpreps is and how it works. You can bet not one of them even knows it's calpreps: they think it's "Maxpreps" and don't get it. :P

I was perfectly fine with the RPI and point system and argued the issues with the playoff system could be traced to other issues including the size of the regions and the fact that it doesn't stop the discrepancy between transfers in metro schools and small rural schools who were placed together because of an outdated system of student enrollment as sole focus of "competitive level" which no longer holds the same weight because of the wide open transfer rules

 

No changing of playoff system was ever gonna fix that 

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16 minutes ago, skyway said:

The key for Lehigh is that the year before last, they played (lost 52-14) STA and had several common opponents with Miami Central. Both STA and MC have games in recent years with both CA teams and other teams who've played CA teams. THAT is why Lehigh shows up high now when factoring in the RB.

If that really is true than that's one of the dumbest application of rankings and I see why their rankings are so bad in the preseason

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12 minutes ago, skyway said:

The key for Lehigh is that the year before last, they played (lost 52-14) STA and had several common opponents with Miami Central. Both STA and MC have games in recent years with both CA teams and other teams who've played CA teams. THAT is why Lehigh shows up high now when factoring in the RB.

ABC logic shouldn’t work that way. Lakeland and Osceola are both better than Lehigh, PERIOD!. End of discussion. The fact that this ranking has Lakeland and Osceola at the bottom of the list is completely shameful and whomever compiled this disgrace of a prediction ought to be ashamed of themself. 

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32 minutes ago, skyway said:

He's not as highly rated a player as Cormani McClain. Of course, calpreps doesn't know who he plays for :rolleyes:

Because calpreps doesn't update the rosters until the teams give the correct info and I think that's another problem

 

If you have to rely on coaches to send in info to a site most have never heard of them your already setting up for a failure of a system to begin with 

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1 hour ago, VeniceIndiansFootball said:

ABC logic shouldn’t work that way. Lakeland and Osceola are both better than Lehigh, PERIOD!. End of discussion. The fact that this ranking has Lakeland and Osceola at the bottom of the list is completely shameful and whomever compiled this disgrace of a prediction ought to be ashamed of themself. 

On the bright side, this thread is a PRESEASON OUTLOOK which by definition opens the discussion to merely opinions.  Not a snap, not a first down, a win or a loss enters into the equation.  Yes, you have some teams returning more talent, getting more transfers or prior reputation to base these opinions on but in the end they are still just opinions and we know what folks say about them.  As has rightly been pointed out, it does lead to some lively discussions on who's analysis is best and fortunately time will make that determination.  Glad I have been able to participate on this forum as I joined for one specific reason which I have previously stated.  I felt our program didn't get the recognition it deserved and was told it was because they didn't have an advocate making the case which was a good observation, as most on here are doing just that for the school they support.  In the end, what is definitely true is that the top teams will be determined on the field of play through an antiquated system that some seem to reject in other endeavors.  It's called Meritocracy and thank GOD we still have it in SPORTS.

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On 6/30/2022 at 2:39 PM, VeniceIndiansFootball said:

Sarasota High had a decent season last year, and only missed the playoffs by a couple of losses: Venice, Riverview, and Braden River. The strong core of their players returns and they have stepped up their comp this year, scheduling Manatee, Palmetto, and Southeast along with their district opponents. My boldest prediction for this season is that Sarasota wins at least one of the 4 games that they lost in 2021 between Venice, Riverview, Southeast, and Braden River, and makes the playoffs for the first time in years. 

North Port High is going independent this year in an attempt to push the reset button on their program. They have never made the playoffs in school history and have never even had a winning season. It appears that they have been bold and scheduled IMG National in Week 4; perhaps an all-out attempt to show their players what top-flight competition looks like. All the best to the Bobcats as they move forward. 

Riverview has brought back a good class and will once again challenge Venice for the district title. They get Venice at the Ram Bowl this season; could this be the year Riverview FINALLY defeats Venice and wins the district crown? Maybe. But Sarasota will not go down easily either. 

 

Sarasota is an interesting program I think they are far from peaking but that’s a program heading in the right direction. Felt they outplayed both Riverview and Manatee in the spring. They look more disciplined than any Sarasota team I’ve seen. 
 

North Port isn’t playing the IMG National team that wouldn’t be safe, it’s one of the others

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2 minutes ago, Canes941 said:

Sarasota is an interesting program I think they are far from peaking but that’s a program heading in the right direction. Felt they outplayed both Riverview and Manatee in the spring. They look more disciplined than any Sarasota team I’ve seen. 
 

North Port isn’t playing the IMG National team that wouldn’t be safe, it’s one of the others

Yeah and outside of the national team, the other IMG squads are basically on par with a Suwannee or something

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On 6/29/2022 at 3:37 PM, skyway said:

No doubt about this. And, as you know, that's not at all limited to transfers. Some players and teams will work their asses off and get much better, while others will be lazy, not improve, and show up to camp out of shape.

If you know you have the Jimmie's and the Joe's, plus they are dedicated to their craft you can't help but like your chances.  Getting to watch a couple of practices each week re-enforces that expectation.  Gonna be fun.:D

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