A Comparison of Regions Using the Top 15 Florida Teams

[OldSchoolLion]

Below is a geographical breakdown of the teams in Maxpreps’ latest poll of the 15 best Florida teams of the last ten years.  The number before each team is their ranking in that poll and listed afterward is the classification in which they currently play.  Schools in bold are private schools.  For each region, I have listed the more competitive private school programs(my opinion) not already listed in the Top 15.

At the end of this post you will find a discussion concerning how private schools might be affecting public schools and a breakdown of the Top 15 teams' records from 2006-2016.  I did my best to make sure all of this data is correct, but I am not perfect, so forgive me if there are any errors!

 

Southeast Florida

Palm Beach County:

12 Dwyer (7A)

11 American Heritage Delray (3A)

Other competitive private schools in the region:

Glades Day (2A)

Oxbridge Academy (3A)

 

Broward County:

1 St Thomas Aquinas (7A)

15 Miramar (8A)

9 American Heritage Plantation (5A)

Other competitive private schools in the region:

Archbishop McCarthy (6A) 6-8 against public schools while in 6A

Chaminade (3A) 13-6 (68%) against public schools in the past 10 seasons

Cardinal Gibbons (5A) 63-20 (76%) against public schools in the last 10 seasons

University School (4A) Knocked out of the last 4 playoff appearances by public school teams

 

Dade County:

4 Booker T Washington (4A)

2 Miami Central (6A)

8 Miami Northwestern (6A)

Competitive private schools in the region:

Belen Jesuit (8A) Knocked out of playoffs by various public school teams each of the past 5 seasons

Champagnat (2A)

Columbus (8A) Knocked out of the playoffs by various public school teams each of the past 14 seasons.

Monsignor Pace (4A) 24-21 against public schools in the past 10 seasons.

Westminster Christian (3A)

 

East Central Florida

10 Apopka

6 Cocoa (4A)

Competitive private schools in the region:

Melbourne Central Catholic (3A)

 

West Central Florida

5 Armwood (6A)

3 Tampa Plant (7A)

14 Lakeland (7A)

13 Manatee (8A)

Competitive private schools in the region:

Tampa Catholic (3A)

Tampa Jesuit (5A) Has been in the playoffs each of the past 9 years, and 5 of those years they were knocked out by a public school. 

Berkeley Prep (3A)

Clearwater Central Catholic (3A)

 

NE Florida

7 Bolles 45-11 (80%) against public schools in the last 10 seasons

Other competitive private schools in the region:

Trinity Christian (5A) 43-15 (74%) against public schools in the last 10 seasons

University Christian (2A)

 

How are private schools affecting the success of public school programs?

Number of private schools by FHSAA class:

8A 2/89

7A 3/87

6A 1/81

5A 8/85

4A 12/48

3A 33/39

59/429(14%) schools competing in FHSAA Classes 3A-8A are private. 

The best Tampa area public schools have the upper hand, despite several competitive private schools in the area.  Only one of those private schools typically competes against public schools in the playoffs.

The Jacksonville area has three very competitive private school programs, but based upon the huge population of the Jacksonville metro area, it is questionable how much of a talent drain those schools place upon the area public schools.

With 33 private schools in 3A, one would expect private schools to dominate the class.  The six public school programs are:

·        Taylor County

·        Fort White

·        Baldwin

·        Newberry

·        Marathon

·        Taylor (Pierson)

None of these schools are located within the limits of a large metropolitan area, so talent drain by private schools is probably not an issue.  Based upon past records, Fort White is likely the only one of them who could claim it consistently wins, and even if they were in a class with 39 public schools their size, it is questionable whether they would dominate.  So, it is questionable whether private schools in 3A are a significant barrier holding public school teams back from greatness. 

There are several competitive private school programs in both Palm Beach and Dade counties.  Most these are in the smaller classes (2A/3A) and do not compete directly against public schools in the playoffs.  None of them have had dominant success against public schools, especially the better public school teams.  

If there is one group of public schools that have a legitimate gripe about the private schools robbing them of talent and greater success, it is the public schools in Broward County.  There are at least 8 competitive private schools in and around Broward County who could pull talent from these schools.  Deerfield Beach and Miramar are schools that come to mind as examples of programs whose past success could have been constrained by the presence of so many good private school programs.   

 

Maxpreps Top 15 Florida Programs of the Past Ten Years (2006-2016)

1. St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) — 396 points
State titles: 8
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (8), 2007 (6), 2008 (1), 2009 (5), 2010 (1), 2011 (12), 2012 (4), 2013 (17), 2014 (1), 2015 (3), 2016 (2)

2. Central (Miami) — 280 points
State titles: 6
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2009 (7), 2010 (3), 2011 (7), 2012 (1), 2013 (2), 2014 (3), 2015 (2), 2016 (13)

3. Plant (Tampa) — 259 points
State titles: 4
Runner-ups: 2
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (3), 2007 (14), 2008 (2), 2009 (3), 2010 (8), 2011 (3), 2012 (21), 2013 (14), 2016 (7)

4. Booker T. Washington (Miami) — 249 points
State titles: 5
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (13), 2007 (1), 2011 (14), 2012 (2), 2013 (1), 2014 (2), 2015 (19), 2016 (17)

5. Armwood (Seffner) — 223 points
State titles: 1
Runner-ups: 4
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (9), 2007 (4), 2008 (9), 2009 (15), 2010 (5), 2011 (2), 2013 (12), 2014 (9), 2015 (10), 2016 (24)

6. Cocoa — 185 points
State titles: 4
Runner-ups: 0
Top 25 state rankings: 2007 (20), 2008 (4), 2009 (2), 2010 (4), 2012 (16), 2016 (5)

7. Bolles (Jacksonville) — 169 points
State titles: 3
Runner-ups: 2
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (6), 2008 (8), 2009 (12), 2011 (8), 2012 (22), 2014 (18), 2016 (19)

8. Northwestern (Miami) — 162 points
State titles: 2
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (2), 2007 (2), 2008 (7), 2009 (17), 2010 (19), 2011 (19), 2012 (24), 2016 (6)

9. American Heritage (Plantation) — 152 points
State titles: 3
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2013 (4), 2014 (5), 2015 (9), 2016 (4)

10. Apopka — 141 points
State titles: 3
Runner-ups: 0
Top 25 state rankings: 2007 (18), 2009 (13), 2012 (7), 2013 (6), 2014 (6), 2015 (25)

11. American Heritage (Delray Beach) — 126 points
State titles: 3
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2009 (21), 2010 (1), 2011 (6), 2012 (10), 2014 (11)

12. Dwyer (Palm Beach Gardens) — 122 points
State titles: 1
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2008 (13), 2009 (1), 2010 (20), 2011 (9), 2013 (3), 2016 (18)

12. Manatee (Bradenton) — 122 points
State titles: 1
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2009 (14), 2010 (9), 2011 (1), 2012 (5), 2013 (11), 2014 (24)

14. Lakeland — 118 points
State titles: 1
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2006 (1), 2007 (15), 2008 (5), 2009 (11), 2010 (10)

15. Miramar — 116 points
State titles: 1
Runner-ups: 1
Top 25 state rankings: 2008 (10), 2009 (4), 2011 (5), 2013 (13), 2014 (12)

 

[DarterBlue2]

The data on Apopka that Maxpreps provided is not correct. In the past ten years the Darters have two state titles and one runner up, not 3-0. 

[dawgs]

bishop moore? in east central florida?

[DarterBlue2]

6 minutes ago, dawgs said:

bishop moore? in east central florida?

Yes, it should have been included if 10 year data was used. Another Maxpreps's omission.

[john taylor]

why did you leave pahokee out and glades central

[OldSchoolLion]

13 minutes ago, john taylor said:

why did you leave pahokee out and glades central

Maxpreps ran a similar poll back in 2014 using the prior 10 years of data.  The point system used in 2016 was similar, but not exactly the same.  Pahokee, Madison County, Glades Central and Ocala Trinity made the top 15 in 2014, but not in 2016.  They were replaced by Apopka, Miramar, and the two American heritage schools in 2016. 

I chose to use 15 teams from a "source" rather than pull them out of my hat.  Concerning the conclusions I stated, I think they would have been the same even if I had used the Top 15 from the 2014 poll.   

 

[john taylor]

thanks for that

[OldSchoolLion]

35 minutes ago, dawgs said:

bishop moore? in east central florida?

That's a good catch.  Bishop Moore would be a good one to include with Melbourne Central Catholic as a competitive private school in East Central Florida.  A quick look over the past years and they certainly have had very good success against public schools, winning about 80% of their games.  They have also gotten the best of the public schools in the playoffs.

I don't believe East Central Florida is home to a lot of 5A schools except for Palm Bay and Merritt Island.  Bishop Moore may have knocked them out of the playoffs certain years, but am not sure BM cost those schools any state championships in doing so.  And even if we add BM to the mix, the Orlando metro area has such a large population, I think it would be questionable to conclude that private schools in that areas are causing a significant talent drain.

 

[gatorman-uf]

OldSchoolLion,

I am not sure what you are trying to prove... is your point that private schools aren't dominant or aren't better than public schools? Or that public schools shouldn't complain because private schools aren't really taking players? 

In the past 10 years there have been 35 private school state champions out of 80 state championships that is 44% of the state championships. Considering they make up 14% of the teams that seems a little outsized for their participation. 26 out of 80 state runner-ups were private schools so 38% of the teams participating in the state championships were private schools. 

If we only look at the top 4 classifications 12 out of the 80 teams participating were private schools or about 15%, but they currently represent 4% of the teams.

The problem is that 1 or 2 athletes leaving each public school to go to a private school makes that school much better than they should be for a school that size. It is not every private school, it is the elite schools like STA, Bolles, Trinity Christian, American Heritage (Plantation/Delray), Bishop Moore, Tampa Catholic, University School, taking 1 or 2 from each public school in the area ends up with a super team. 

------
 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

OldSchoolLion,

I am not sure what you are trying to prove... is your point that private schools aren't dominant or aren't better than public schools? Or that public schools shouldn't complain because private schools aren't really taking players? 

In the past 10 years there have been 35 private school state champions out of 80 state championships that is 44% of the state championships. Considering they make up 14% of the teams that seems a little outsized for their participation. 26 out of 80 state runner-ups were private schools so 38% of the teams participating in the state championships were private schools. 

If we only look at the top 4 classifications 12 out of the 80 teams participating were private schools or about 15%, but they currently represent 4% of the teams.

The problem is that 1 or 2 athletes leaving each public school to go to a private school makes that school much better than they should be for a school that size. It is not every private school, it is the elite schools like STA, Bolles, Trinity Christian, American Heritage (Plantation/Delray), Bishop Moore, Tampa Catholic, University School, taking 1 or 2 from each public school in the area ends up with a super team. 

------
 

Appreciate you asking, Gatorman!  Although private schools only represent 14%, we all know that those schools are not equally distributed amongst the 8 classes.  Simply due to the law of numbers, there is a very high probability that the state champions of classes 2A and 3A are going to be private schools.  So, there is a pretty good chance that you are going to have at least 2 private school champions each year.  Just like it wouldn't be a stretch to say that there is a pretty good chance that the 1A and 8A champ every year is going to be a public school.  That's "domination" because the system skews it in that direction.

l would propose we just look at the state champions of classes 4A-8A.  Since the privates are at lower lower percentages in these classes, a disproportionate number of private state champions in these classes might be a sign of some unfair advantage.

And, just to keep things tidy, would appreciate it if we could start in 2011 when we went to 8 classes.  In classes 4A-8A since 2011, 35 state champions have been crowned(including any forfeitures).  10 of those championships went to private schools.  So 10/35 champions, or about 29%, were private school programs.  Is that disproportionate?  Yes, indeed.  So you are right, there are a disproportionate amount of private school championships! 

American Heritage (Plantation)-4(5A)

Bishop Moore -1(5A)

Bolles-1(4A)

St Thomas Aquinas -4(7A)

However, 8/10 were won by two schools.  And it is those two schools that really skew the numbers.  

As I stated in a prior post, I think it is more accurate to call out the few dominant, private schools who we think have an unfair advantage, rather than make generalizations, as some do, that "private schools dominate."  Even then, I think the folks at Aquinas have an argument that their academic and athletic programs are so excellent, they do not need to resort to recruiting or other funny business.  Kids want to go there, and their parents do, too.

...as far as public schools losing 1-2 players to private schools.  Nowadays, I think the shoe is just as likely to be on the other foot, with private school kids leaving to go to "better" public schools when it is in their best interest.  I shared the data on the original post to help us visualize the football scene in certain regions of the state.  Except for possibly Broward County, I am not totally convinced that "raiding" by private schools is having a profound effect on public school football performance.

...as far as "school(s)s much better than they should be for a school that size."  I see where you are coming from.  Relatively speaking, I don't think there are as many of these as some people may think.  There are relatively few private school programs who are routinely beating the bigger, public schools with solid football football programs.  I think there are some fine, small, private school programs, but I think they are often rated higher than they should be.  Is Madison County not "better than they should be?"  How about Booker T, Cocoa, Pahokee?  I can name a number of small, public schools who one could argue are "better than they should be."  I would like to think this is due to hard work, not raiding talent from nearby schools.  And I would say the same for some of the small, private schools.   

I think any of us get annoyed when we are not given the credit we think we are due.  Some have a perception that private schools are dripping with money and resources.  That is hardly the case.  I have been to public schools that look like the Taj Mahal compared to my old, private school.  And yeah, my tax dollars are paying for those kids to get a free education in a beautiful school, with a beautiful stadium, while I am also paying $15k/year for my kid to sit in a 50 year-old classroom with an unsafe chemistry lab and no stadium to play in .  Talk about an unfair advantage, and one much more important than an advantage on the field. 

It's an insult to the kids and the coaches to play the "private school card," as some do when the small privates win.  And it would be no different than someone crying foul when Madison County or Pahokee stomp a much bigger program.

My biggest beef with the whole private vs public kids debate is that it is not really about the kids.  We overblow these gross inequities to justify manipulation of the system for the sake of "fairness."  We deprive our kids of experiencing the excitement of playing in a playoff game against an age-old local rival now because, heaven forbid, if they lose to that little private school, it might scar the kid forever.  We make them drive 200 miles to play in a game because those guys down the street have an unfair advantage.  We put them in this football "bubble" that supposedly protects them from inequity.

For all you young  "grasshoppers" out there, it's the failures and losses that really build your character, not the victories. It's not the worst thing in the world to get humiliated by an American Heritage, but to do so with grace.  Hate to tell you this, but the "other" guy often has an unfair advantage, grasshoppers.  The quicker you learn that life lesson, the better you will get at dealing with it in a constructive manner, and the stronger you will be able to deal with adversity in your life.

     

  

 

[gatorman-uf]

As I posted in another post, NJ has separated the schools for playoff purposes since 1974 and it has worked fine, but now they are separating them in terms of regular season for safety factor (teams of 60 completely dedicated players vs teams of 25 we are doing this because it is fun).

I am product of 12 years of Catholic schools. I know the recruitment that happens both in terms of academics and athletics. I wasn't the athlete, but my friends were. I was the kid who actually was recruited to the Catholic school because of my Academic abilities. My friends (who did not receive a scholarship) were heavily recruited by the coach and his assistants. There was no doubt of that. 

I transferred schools to another state. Two of my fellow sophomore transfers were All-Area players in their respective sports (soccer and basketball) as freshmen. Talent like that just doesn't walk in the door randomly. I would also say that one of bi

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As for playing the best team regardless of classification, I think there are limits on such things. Should Stanton or Paxon choose to play Bolles? Probably not. As Paxon and Stanton gain nothing. Yes, it is important to challenge one's team, but challenging them and setting them up for failure are 2 different things. A coaching for dummies book I once read talked about scheduling (non-football). They said in an ideal world a schedule should reflect the reality of your team. Let's assume you have an average team in terms of talent. They talked about the idea that you should schedule an "easy" game, a team where it is 50/50 in terms of winning, and a stretch game. A game where if you were to play perfectly the game might be close, but you would most likely lose. They suggested you do that for the whole season. As your team improves, what was an "easy" team gets dropped off the schedule to add a tougher team. 

Part of the idea of splitting private/public is that you want teams facing similar situations and resources/dedications as your school. It is one of the reasons, I advocate for a promotion/relegation system based on success. If your team is very successful than you move up a class. If your team is bad, than they move down a class. Does Bolles make it 8A probably not. Does Booker T Washington or Cocoa make it 8A maybe, but at the same point do teams like Jupiter, Varela, and Winter Springs stay in 8A? No, they move down so they are competitive. 

Competitive doesn't have to mean they are winning state championships, it just means that they are on the same talent/skill level as the teams playing. If you look at florida high schools sports in things like Volleyball and Soccer, the same teams dominate each year (Private or Public). Some of the small private schools could win large classification state championships. It is in these sports that we see the private school domination even more. 

[OldSchoolLion]

29 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

As I posted in another post, NJ has separated the schools for playoff purposes since 1974 and it has worked fine, but now they are separating them in terms of regular season for safety factor (teams of 60 completely dedicated players vs teams of 25 we are doing this because it is fun).

I am product of 12 years of Catholic schools. I know the recruitment that happens both in terms of academics and athletics. I wasn't the athlete, but my friends were. I was the kid who actually was recruited to the Catholic school because of my Academic abilities. My friends (who did not receive a scholarship) were heavily recruited by the coach and his assistants. There was no doubt of that. 

I transferred schools to another state. Two of my fellow sophomore transfers were All-Area players in their respective sports (soccer and basketball) as freshmen. Talent like that just doesn't walk in the door randomly. I would also say that one of bi

-----------------
As for playing the best team regardless of classification, I think there are limits on such things. Should Stanton or Paxon choose to play Bolles? Probably not. As Paxon and Stanton gain nothing. Yes, it is important to challenge one's team, but challenging them and setting them up for failure are 2 different things. A coaching for dummies book I once read talked about scheduling (non-football). They said in an ideal world a schedule should reflect the reality of your team. Let's assume you have an average team in terms of talent. They talked about the idea that you should schedule an "easy" game, a team where it is 50/50 in terms of winning, and a stretch game. A game where if you were to play perfectly the game might be close, but you would most likely lose. They suggested you do that for the whole season. As your team improves, what was an "easy" team gets dropped off the schedule to add a tougher team. 

Part of the idea of splitting private/public is that you want teams facing similar situations and resources/dedications as your school. It is one of the reasons, I advocate for a promotion/relegation system based on success. If your team is very successful than you move up a class. If your team is bad, than they move down a class. Does Bolles make it 8A probably not. Does Booker T Washington or Cocoa make it 8A maybe, but at the same point do teams like Jupiter, Varela, and Winter Springs stay in 8A? No, they move down so they are competitive. 

Competitive doesn't have to mean they are winning state championships, it just means that they are on the same talent/skill level as the teams playing. If you look at florida high schools sports in things like Volleyball and Soccer, the same teams dominate each year (Private or Public). Some of the small private schools could win large classification state championships. It is in these sports that we see the private school domination even more. 

Truly appreciate the comments.  Yes, it is very suspect when a great player "magically"shows up" at a private school, and undoubtedly that happens.  As you put it, gatorman, talent like that doesn't just walk through the door.  Unfortunately, I have heard an increasing number of similar stories involving public schools in recent years...

A talented sophomore qb who has been a 2-year starter for a historically poor team transfers(legally) to a perennial state championship contender 25 miles away and starts both his junior and senior years.  He supplants the qb who started the prior year and lead his team to the state finals.  

An elite level wrestler from the Northeast transfers to a powerhouse wrestling program in Florida and becomes a state champion and eventual NCAA champion. 

I am willing to wager that if those events took place at private schools and I argued that those guys just walked in off the street, a lot of people would people say "Get real, dude."  If we are going to give the public schools the benefit of the doubt, we should do the same for all.  Or, if we are going to be raising our eyebrows at funny stuff at the private schools, nobody should get their shorts in a wad when  somebody raises their eyebrows for instances like those above.  Whatever stance we take, let's be consistent.

When I am reading that the average high school football coach in Texas is making almost $100k/year, it is hard for me to believe that most elite-level public school program coaches are sitting back passively and just taking their chances at what walks through door, knowing full well that they are out of their big salary if they do not win. 

http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/dfwvarsity/prep-football/article171482762.html

Although Florida is not that extreme, all of the firings I have been hearing about must be putting increasing pressure on Florida coaches to "win" or risk losing one's job.  And we all know some individuals will use that as justification to bend the rules, regardless of where they are coaching.  Until I see some facts on paper, I am not convinced that bending of rules is any more prevalent in private schools.  

Absolutely agree that scheduling needs to be within reason.  Not playing another team to keep the kids safe from injury-absolutely.  My problem is with driving 200 miles to meet an opponent when there are all kinds of legitimate local opponents on even keel.  That is time away from the books, not to mention the risks of transport.   It just seems so bizarre to me...teams right down the street...who we played every year...fantastic rivalries.  Now it has been years since we have played them and we are struggling to find teams to play.

If the relegation could be accomplished simply, I'd support.  The approach makes a lot of sense.  I am a little skeptical, though.  Nowadays we have become very good at over-complicating things and spending more time figuring out how to manipulate systems than doing stuff.  Many years ago, teams were fairly consistent in terms of their performance and transferring was a rarity.  Nowadays, things seem so fluid because of players and coaches moving so frequently.  I could imagine a team being relegated, then a big flood of transfers comes in and the teams they are playing are crying they are overmatched.  I can only imagine what schemes someone might come up with in our win-at-all-costs mentality.      

"Part of the idea of splitting private/public is that you want teams facing similar situations and resources/dedications as your school."

Absolutely agree that we should be making an effort to pair teams with similar resources.  As I mentioned in another post, though, I question if public vs private is the big equalizer today-not when I see pictures like below.  No doubt there are some very affluent private schools and some incredibly resource-limited public schools.  But it works the other way, too.  Here are some public school weight rooms in the pictures below.  Many of the Catholic high schools in Florida are 50+ years old and I would be willing to wager that some of them have weight rooms that look like holes in the wall compared to this.  ...the school buildings, too. 

I don't think a school like Ponte Vedra could be playing in a state title game and nearly beating one of the best teams in the country within 10 years of opening its doors unless it had some MAJOR support and resources.  Some private schools took MANY more years to get to a state final game. Maybe we should pair teams up in competition by considering student population AND budgets.

 

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