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BrowardHandicapper

Could drastic changes be coming to FHSAA Playoffs in 2017

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Ladies & Gentlemen (Yes there are some ladies on here that will read this):

I have had a sit down talk with Frank Beasley today which will be released in two parts over the next two days via the FHSAA.

 

Let's make a few things clear:

 

- First no vote will be taken just yet. This will be presented for informational purposes only on June 14th. Depending on how everyone feels things could move forward for a plan to come to vote in September.

 

- Second, NONE of the points for the points system is officially set in stone. Many ideas are rolling in from across the state. Bonus points for playing up a class, two or more could be removed. Different incentives will be looked at as well. 

 

- Some have said on here that the point system doesn't change things much on who would have gotten in. I get it, but it speaks the points should be able to work give the exception of a few teams who might replace other teams depending on the points.

 

- The schools keep wanting to have choices. Who doesn't want the choice to set the schedule they want? That is what I am trying to figure out. If schools are so worried about guaranteed games, they can create conferences or revive old ones that people still talk about to this day or even take ones that still exist on paper and make them worth while again. 

 

- This notion that everyone will take Week 11 as a bye week can't totally happen because some teams you want to play may not have room to schedule you depending on where things fall for them. 

 

There is a lot of things to be discussed and we will be involved in this until we see which direction things go. I will have some things to show what can be done I think a lot of you all are seriously overlooking and just how great things can be for teams once I show you all. I support this plan and I feel its worthy of a shot to let it become reality. From what I have looked at, this is our best chance to level the playing field as everyone has been talking about wanting. If we don't do it, then we can't continue to complain. I am just saying.

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Mr. Wilson,

 

I have emailed with Mr. Beasley as well and I do understand where this is coming from.

I would also point that the first go around for the proposed system, I basically proved why the system wouldn't work as 0-10 Creekside would have made the playoffs. While this system is obviously better than the first proposed system, pardon me if I willing to question things when some simple math proved how bad the system would be.

 

But some issues still remain as they try and sell this:

They are selling this as it "rewards playing a tough schedule" Two questions come to mind, 1) How does the current system punish you for playing a tough schedule? and 2) How do you define a tough schedule?

My example would be Apopka from 2014. They entered 8A playoffs as a 6-4 district runner-up. They win the state championship. Now all of their losses were against 7-3 teams or better, so they weren't losing to scrubs. At the same time, I doubt they could be in the playoffs with a 6-4 record in 8A under the new system. 

 

Second, how does one define a tough schedule. Teams rise and fall all the time. In the Jacksonville area, both First Coast and Ed White were a lot worse than people would expected this year and as a result would have been a drain on your schedule. How is that fair the the kids? They don't control who is willing to play them or how good their opponents are. I look at Santa Fe a couple of years ago. They were on a tear beating teams then their QB becomes out for the season and the team looks average. I look at a school like Hamilton County who plays in the 1A state championship game in 2014 and then goes 4-6 in 2015.

Third, County ADs are going to use this as a way to take control of schedules. Look at Duval County again. Until recently, no schools played outside of the Gateway Conference for out of district games. If you think County ADs in big metro areas are going to allow tons of cross-state games because of this, then you have never talked to one of these ADs. They care about saving money. So don't expect a school like Raines to be playing Mainland for example. (Yes, I know Raines and First Coast played out of county the past two years, but only because Superintendent worked in Miami-Dade.) Look to St Johns County, Creekside went 0-10 last year, who wants that team on their schedule? At no point will Bartram, Nease, Ponte Vedra, or St. Augustine drop them though, it is a gate game and cheap travel game. Does that game hurt playoffs chances even with a win? Yup.

 

So yes, of course, County ADs love this. They see cost savings. Of course, coaches love this. They don't have to schedule powerhouse schools so they can pump up that win %. Are fans going to love this? Nope, way too confusing to figure out. The fact that a team can go from being #1 seed to being a #4 because an opponent from week 1 loses a game is to me something fans will not enjoy.

Do I understand the need for a system that does avoids 50-0 blowouts? Sure do. I understand it in terms of money (nobody shows up to that game). I understand it terms of competition (Winning and Losing Coaches hate those games). I understand it terms of player safety (2nd teamers lighting up overly tired 1st teamers). I just think that promotion/relegation is easier to do without changing the simple system of winners/runner-ups.

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Mr. Wilson,

 

I have emailed with Mr. Beasley as well and I do understand where this is coming from.

I would also point that the first go around for the proposed system, I basically proved why the system wouldn't work as 0-10 Creekside would have made the playoffs. While this system is obviously better than the first proposed system, pardon me if I willing to question things when some simple math proved how bad the system would be.

 

 

But some issues still remain as they try and sell this:

They are selling this as it "rewards playing a tough schedule" Two questions come to mind, 1) How does the current system punish you for playing a tough schedule? and 2) How do you define a tough schedule?

My example would be Apopka from 2014. They entered 8A playoffs as a 6-4 district runner-up. They win the state championship. Now all of their losses were against 7-3 teams or better, so they weren't losing to scrubs. At the same time, I doubt they could be in the playoffs with a 6-4 record in 8A under the new system. 

 

Second, how does one define a tough schedule. Teams rise and fall all the time. In the Jacksonville area, both First Coast and Ed White were a lot worse than people would expected this year and as a result would have been a drain on your schedule. How is that fair the the kids? They don't control who is willing to play them or how good their opponents are. I look at Santa Fe a couple of years ago. They were on a tear beating teams then their QB becomes out for the season and the team looks average. I look at a school like Hamilton County who plays in the 1A state championship game in 2014 and then goes 4-6 in 2015.

Third, County ADs are going to use this as a way to take control of schedules. Look at Duval County again. Until recently, no schools played outside of the Gateway Conference for out of district games. If you think County ADs in big metro areas are going to allow tons of cross-state games because of this, then you have never talked to one of these ADs. They care about saving money. So don't expect a school like Raines to be playing Mainland for example. (Yes, I know Raines and First Coast played out of county the past two years, but only because Superintendent worked in Miami-Dade.) Look to St Johns County, Creekside went 0-10 last year, who wants that team on their schedule? At no point will Bartram, Nease, Ponte Vedra, or St. Augustine drop them though, it is a gate game and cheap travel game. Does that game hurt playoffs chances even with a win? Yup.

 

So yes, of course, County ADs love this. They see cost savings. Of course, coaches love this. They don't have to schedule powerhouse schools so they can pump up that win %. Are fans going to love this? Nope, way too confusing to figure out. The fact that a team can go from being #1 seed to being a #4 because an opponent from week 1 loses a game is to me something fans will not enjoy.

 

Do I understand the need for a system that does avoids 50-0 blowouts? Sure do. I understand it in terms of money (nobody shows up to that game). I understand it terms of competition (Winning and Losing Coaches hate those games). I understand it terms of player safety (2nd teamers lighting up overly tired 1st teamers). I just think that promotion/relegation is easier to do without changing the simple system of winners/runner-ups.

 

Gatorman,

 

Not sure I know who you are and might be someone I already know. But I have to debunk why Creekside wouldn't make it.

 

First it was already calculated several times showing no way possible Creekside would get in the playoffs at 0-10. I don't know what points you were using, but looking at two examples already done, Creekside just wouldn't be able to without winning some games to get to at least 5-5. Creekside might get more points than say a 1-9 team due to schedule, but not enough to reach the playoffs. Say would go for an 10-0 team that scheduled all teams that could go 3-7 or worse. They wouldn't make it because they scheduled all the cupcakes they could. 

 

Also this puts choice back into schools hands and if the counties want to control their teams on schedule, then that is fine. They would have to learn when to let certain things go when some schools don't make the playoffs because others choose a different route. Promotion and relegation sounds very complicated. I think middle ground will be found though on this, but as far as I can tell from those who I have talked to, most want something to change. 

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The link is your original post and I will gladly send you the Region 1, Class 7A points that show Creekside makes the playoffs under the original proposed system that is outlined in the link. I know the system has changed since then, but sorry if I am apprehensive about any proposal that didn't do the legwork to find out what teams would enter the playoffs to argue that it is a better system.

 

http://floridahsfootball.com/forums/index.php?/topic/993-football-playoff-changes-on-the-discussion-docket-for-football-advisory-committee/?hl=creekside

 

Again, your assumption is that a team is purposefully scheduling cupcakes. I point out numerous examples of teams that fail to live up to expectations or teams that suffer a major injury and the team is never the same. How is that ok? Why should the kids be punished for who is willing to play them?

 

I will keep asking how does the current system punish you for playing for a hard schedule. 

Or Team A schedule 9  3-7 or worse cupcakes and you. They go 9-0, but lose to you. You earn the 50 points because you beat a 9-1, because your system recognizes them as quality opponent, but also understands they aren't by not letting them into the playoffs. Somehow that seems contradictory to me. 

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Ladies & Gents,

 

Got an example here for you.

 

First I modified the points for the example for Category 3 and 4 wins. Instead of 40 and 35 points respectively I brought it down to 35 (win in CAT 3) and 30 (win in CAT 4) . I left the points alone for loss since they fit already in to the model.

 

Category-Points.png

 

Second I took the bonus points out for playing a team in a higher class. That to me has been a bone of contention with a TON of teams in the higher classes, especially 8A. My opinion is just take them out and it would make it easier for acceptance.

 

However, I have added incentive bonus points. These bonus points can be earned REGARDLESS OF CLASSIFICATION:

 

- 1 bonus point for beating a team with 80% or more wins over the last five years before the current season

- 1 bonus point for scheduling a final four team from the previous season

- 4 bonus points for defeating that final four team on the schedule

 

So here is Class 7A, Region I again which has been a good region to test on since we got various factors using everything I just mentioned above:

 

Example-7A-Region-1-1.png

 

Here is the breakdown on why each team got the bonus points they did

 

Lincoln:

- 1 point for Niceville being a final four team from 2014

- 1 point for Manatee being a final four team from 2014

- 4 points for defeating Manatee

- 1 point for Manatee 80% wins w/win

= 7 bonus points

 

Columbia: 

- 1 point for Bolles being a final four team from 2014

- 4 points for defeating Bolles

- 1 point for Bolles 80% wins w/win

- 1 point for First Coast 80% wins w/win

- 1 point for Suawnnee being a final four team from 2014

- 4 points for defeating Suwannee

= 12 bonus points

 

First Coast: 

- 1 point for Miami Central being a final four team from 2014

= 1 bonus point

 

Atlantic Coast:

- 1 point for First Coast 80% wins w/win

= 1 bonus point

 

Bartram Trail: 

- 1 bonus point for Mainland being a final four team from 2014

= 1 bonus point

 

Edgewater: 

- 1 bonus point for Apopka being a final four team from 2014

= 1 bonus point

 

Ocoee: 

- 1 bonus point for Apopka being a final four team from 2014

= 1 bonus point

 

TIEBREAKER

As you will note Robert E. Lee (7-3) and Oakleaf (8-2) end up tied in this simulation. Well the tiebreaker calls for head-to-head first. Neither team played each other so it moves on to Step 3. Team with the most Category 1 wins would win the tiebreaker in this situation will get the higher see/remaining spot. In this case Robert E. Lee had one Category 1 win (over Sandalwood) and that broke the tie right there leaving Oakleaf out. It would be a good note that Oakleaf would not benefit at all playing Arlington Country Day and would be suggested by others to get them off the schedule and find someone else. If you know ACD is a bad team and wouldn't help you get to the playoffs, why in the heck schedule them? Proof here the system works and that teams should schedule tougher if they want to be recognized as a top team, not a team winning games just to be winning. Get my point? 

 

YOUR REGION 1 PLAYOFF BRACKET:

 

#1 Columbia vs. #8 Robert E. Lee

#4 Edgewater vs. #5 Hagerty

#3 Bartram Trail vs. #6 Ocoee

#2 Buchholz vs. #7 Lincoln

 

 

Gatorman...again as you want to keep saying Creekside is going to get in...look at the average that Creekside has and look at everyone else. They are not even close. Oakleaf, Leon, Atlantic Coast, Fletcher, Fleming Island, East Ridge and Lake Minneola all with .500 records or better are ahead of them. So please again show me where Creekside actually can go 0-10 and get in because really they can't. The only .500 or better team that Creekside is ahead of is Chiles because they don't benefit at all playing weak 1A teams. 

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I took the bonus points out all together by suggestion with the other points staying the same as I mentioned in my last post and it was interesting to see what happened here:

 

In this scenario you will see 4-6 Lincoln is shutout. Well if you want the playoffs to be about winning teams getting in and controlling their own destiny with the schedule, the solution is right here in all of this. 

 

Example-7A-Region-1-2.png

 

#1 Columbia (9-1) vs. #8 Oakleaf (8-2)
#4 Edgewater (7-3) vs. #5 Hagerty (8-2)
#3 Bartram Trail (7-3) vs. #6 Ocoee (6-4)
#2 Buchholz (9-1) vs. #7 Robert E. Lee (7-3)

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Nevermind... you finally saw it. Since I can't post fancy pictures. Please understand under the count every game (which you called me out on when I said Lincoln would end up being the #1 seed and suggested I only use the 8 games). Creekside becomes tied for #9 and one point of 8th. Again, I am not saying that Creekside gets in under the current proposal. My problem is that we throw out proposals without seeing the effects of those proposals.

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All this just seams WAY to complicated to me and talk about a nightmare to manage. WOW you think the FHSAA has complaints now just wait and see how this turns out.

 

Actually from what I have heard through the grapevine, a majority of AD's and coaches want some sort of change....and I have talked to numerous coaches myself who are for it or for some kind of change. 

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Nevermind... you finally saw it. Since I can't post fancy pictures. Please understand under the count every game (which you called me out on when I said Lincoln would end up being the #1 seed and suggested I only use the 8 games). Creekside becomes tied for #9 and one point of 8th. Again, I am not saying that Creekside gets in under the current proposal. My problem is that we throw out proposals without seeing the effects of those proposals.

 

Well that proposal did have some flaws in it, but now I think we got something here that is better and can get the teams in to the playoffs.

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Again, as for your current changes, I like the one with the first one, but that takes into account previous success (which is basically what am I saying in regards to promotion/relegation).

As for your example of ACD, what if you thought they were going to be good? How many people truly thought First Coast would go 2-7 for the year? Or that Ed White goes 3-7, both tier 4 after both being regional finalists the year before?

 

You basically punish a team because their opponent sucks that year, I just can't find fairness in that. 

_______________________________________________________________

 

 

Honestly, while all games should count, maybe we should like the Olympics and your highest and lowest games get thrown out. Complete speculation without looking at the numbers.

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As for your example of ACD, what if you thought they were going to be good? How many people truly thought First Coast would go 2-7 for the year? Or that Ed White goes 3-7, both tier 4 after both being regional finalists the year before?

 

You basically punish a team because their opponent sucks that year, I just can't find fairness in that. 

 

Essentially, we're taking the standpoint of FBS teams around the nation. 

 

Ole Miss has no clue how Baylor will be in 2020, but they have a game scheduled. Or how GA Tech will be in 2022/2023 or Wake Forest in 2024/2025. 

 

Shoot, Baylor could go winless in 2020 for all anyone knows. 

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Essentially, we're taking the standpoint of FBS teams around the nation. 

 

Ole Miss has no clue how Baylor will be in 2020, but they have a game scheduled. Or how GA Tech will be in 2022/2023 or Wake Forest in 2024/2025. 

 

Shoot, Baylor could go winless in 2020 for all anyone knows. 

 

Very good point, is no matter what happens you really don't know how team could fare. Ask all 700 plus teams in Ohio if this an issue. They are use to it and have been for years. Same thing for Nebraska.

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So basically the sorry teams will schedule the sorry teams and the good teams will fight over playing each other. Some solid programs here in Jax have a hard time scheduling games and still need games to date.

 

Maybe we finally see Bolles vs Trinity, Bolles vs UC, Bolles vs BK again.       

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Would you rather play the 2015  7A Reagan Storm (7-3) or 2015 7A Blanche Ely Tigers (2-9)?   Who was the better team last year in reality?

 

I can tell you who will likely have the better record over the next few years and I can clearly tell you who the better team is (regardless of record) over the next few years.  

 

The opposing teams would fight over playing easy-money Reagan and avoid Ely at all cost.  Who get's first dibs on Reagan and who gets screwed having to play Ely in the future?

 

The 6A Mitchell Mustangs (10-2 in 2015) could very well have a better record than the 6A Miami Northwestern Bulls (5-5 in 2015)  over the next few years.  I can tell you who the better team will be to infinity and beyond.

 

How about 2015 records in 5A you have a choice of playing 7-3 Lemon Bay, 3-6 Jackson or 3-6 Godby for future games?   Sign me up for Lemon Bay for the next 3 years please - quickly!  Easy$$$!

 

 

 

There is no flawless system.

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Would you rather play the 2015  7A Reagan Storm (7-3) or 2015 7A Blanche Ely Tigers (2-9)?   Who was the better team last year in reality?

 

I can tell you who will likely have the better record over the next few years and I can clearly tell you who the better team is (regardless of record) over the next few years.  

 

The opposing teams would fight over playing easy-money Reagan and avoid Ely at all cost.  Who get's first dibs on Reagan and who gets screwed having to playing Ely in the future?

 

The 6A Mitchell Mustangs (10-2 in 2015) could very well have a better record than the 6A Miami Northwestern Bulls (5-5 in 2015)  over the next few years.  I can tell you who the better team will be to infinity and beyond.

 

How about 2015 records in 5A you have a choice of playing 7-3 Lemon Bay, 3-6 Jackson or 3-6 Godby for future games?   Sign me up for Lemon Bay for the next 3 years please - quickly!  Easy$$$!

 

 

 

There is no flawless system.

 

FYI - Reagan are the Bison

 

And if the teams are in conferences like GMAC for Reagan's case, not everyone is going to get them. 

 

And if some teams want to load up on potential cupcakes that is fine, but they will pay the prices in the end if they don't try to mix it up. 

 

No system will ever be flawless, but I think the proposed solution is going to put us closer to having realistic matchups and not 50-point beatdowns in the first round which is what some of you all still seem to want from what I am sensing. 

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So basically the sorry teams will schedule the sorry teams and the good teams will fight over playing each other. Some solid programs here in Jax have a hard time scheduling games and still need games to date.

 

Maybe we finally see Bolles vs Trinity, Bolles vs UC, Bolles vs BK again.

We have no problem taking the best duval has lol

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The issue at the school I coach at is: we are in a rural, very poor, drug ridden area. Our roster stays in the mid twenties and has been since I played there in the 1990s. Since we have 800+ students, we cannot be in the 1A division, instead we are 4A. There has to be a way we can be in the 1A classification. It's not like we are going dominate that class, Trenton kicked our butts a few years ago in a spring game.

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I think what ADs and coaches would like to see is a system like that is in place, only with the districts evenly matched. It makes ZERO sense for 3 team districts, yet the FHSAA continues to do it. Every district should have 5 teams in it. If you have a shortage of teams, here's an idea, make one less class. Go to 7 classes in stead of 8. Now I know that will never happen because the FHSAA has their hand out and will not give up revenue. The system isn't broken but it does need fixing.

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The issue at the school I coach at is: we are in a rural, very poor, drug ridden area. Our roster stays in the mid twenties and has been since I played there in the 1990s. Since we have 800+ students, we cannot be in the 1A division, instead we are 4A. There has to be a way we can be in the 1A classification. It's not like we are going dominate that class, Trenton kicked our butts a few years ago in a spring game.

Which school is this?

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