Recruiting Question??

[561_Fan]

Do you thing football recruiters value POTENTIAL over PRODUCTION? I just saw a kid commit to a P5 school, with only 33 tackles and 1 int in 13 games as a safety. That means over half of the games he made no impact. I think a P5 kid should make an impact In almost every game, since the majority of the opponents won’t be playing college football.

[Perspective]

45 minutes ago, 561_Fan said:

Do you thing football recruiters value POTENTIAL over PRODUCTION? I just saw a kid commit to a P5 school, with only 33 tackles and 1 int in 13 games as a safety. That means over half of the games he made no impact. I think a P5 kid should make an impact In almost every game, since the majority of the opponents won’t be playing college football.

So many factors at play here.   Are offenses game-planning around him?  Are opponent QB's not even throwing the ball down field because this kid is lurking back there waiting?  Is this kid's team loaded on defense and the D-line and LB'ers are making most of the tackles?

I'm curious how the kid is built:  is he 6'2", 185 with a frame that can hold the 15 pounds that he'll likely gain his first year of college?  Does he have good speed?   Does he play downhill?  Is he aggressive? 

In answer to your question, I'd say college recruit on a combination of potential and production.  You can't teach speed, size or instinct, so if a kid checks all of these boxes, even if his statistical numbers aren't all that impressive, he'll still get offers over the 5'8, 160 kid who has better numbers. 

[KeemD321]

2 hours ago, 561_Fan said:

Do you thing football recruiters value POTENTIAL over PRODUCTION? I just saw a kid commit to a P5 school, with only 33 tackles and 1 int in 13 games as a safety. That means over half of the games he made no impact. I think a P5 kid should make an impact In almost every game, since the majority of the opponents won’t be playing college football.

It really just depends on the kid. I know Rockledge has a safety that's a 4 star and ranked as one of the top safeties in the country and his stats don't jump out too much due to teams scheming around avoiding him

[VeniceIndianFan]

1 hour ago, KeemD321 said:

It really just depends on the kid. I know Rockledge has a safety that's a 4 star and ranked as one of the top safeties in the country and his stats don't jump out too much due to teams scheming around avoiding him

Fortunately (or perhaps unfortunately, however you look at it,) your analysis is right on the money. Kids who are ranked 4 and 5 stars at the cornerback or safety position often don't get the credit they deserve for being ranked so highly because nobody wants to throw at 4 and 5 star corners or safeties. It hurts their film for college recruitment because sometimes reputation alone isn't enough to get the job done. 

[VeniceIndianFan]

3 hours ago, 561_Fan said:

Do you thing football recruiters value POTENTIAL over PRODUCTION? I just saw a kid commit to a P5 school, with only 33 tackles and 1 int in 13 games as a safety. That means over half of the games he made no impact. I think a P5 kid should make an impact In almost every game, since the majority of the opponents won’t be playing college football.

KeemD321 made a great point as he so often does that whenever a kid earns a 3, 4, or even 5-star rating, it's always done so by merit. Talent doesn't just grow on trees. This means that their reputation alone will change the way that opposing offensive coordinators prepare for their game. You always have to account for the presence of such a player, and if that means you're not throwing the ball their way, then of course their production is going to be lower. A good college recruiter will take this into consideration and realize that if opposing teams aren't attacking him, that he must be doing something right.

[Ray Icaza]

6 hours ago, 561_Fan said:

Do you thing football recruiters value POTENTIAL over PRODUCTION? I just saw a kid commit to a P5 school, with only 33 tackles and 1 int in 13 games as a safety. That means over half of the games he made no impact. I think a P5 kid should make an impact In almost every game, since the majority of the opponents won’t be playing college football.

Here is my take.  The few very elite players that usually achieve their potential usually check off ALL the boxes regarding size, speed, production etc...  Lots of 3 stars and even 4 stars are overrated making this whole recruiting business a crap shoot when you see the number of busts especially if they make it all the way to the NFL.  Too often the "Eye Ball" test and athletic stats (weight, height, speed, etc.) are given to much priority over playmaking ability.  Thus the ESPN documentary about the "Brady 8" is a clear example of the eight QB's not only drafted ahead of him, but the vast majority of them ended up being bust.  Today the NFL leading tackler who plays for the Jags is Foyesade Oluokun who played at Yale or top tier QB Josh Alllen of the Bills with no offers ended up the JuCo route before Wyoming picked him up.  And the list goes on.  This whole industry is a joke if you were to use the old academic grading system of what is an A (94%+) or a B (86%+) and so on.  Most of these so-called experts wouldn't last more than a year or two if they were held to this type of standard. 

[561_Fan]

I’m just used to highly ranked guys, having impacts on games. Akeem Dent played at Pahokee as a sophomore (#1 CB in the class) and made A LOT of plays that justified his ranking. Janoris Jenkins had maybe 70 tackles and 6 picks his senior season . DeVontray Hampton (SR starter at Bethune Cookman) had over 100 tackles, 10 forced fumbles, and about 6 ints his senior season (most impressive film I’ve seen) and he was a 2 star. 
 I’m just used to highly rated prospects impacting games. 

[Ray Icaza]

32 minutes ago, 561_Fan said:

I’m just used to highly ranked guys, having impacts on games. Akeem Dent played at Pahokee as a sophomore (#1 CB in the class) and made A LOT of plays that justified his ranking. Janoris Jenkins had maybe 70 tackles and 6 picks his senior season . DeVontray Hampton (SR starter at Bethune Cookman) had over 100 tackles, 10 forced fumbles, and about 6 ints his senior season (most impressive film I’ve seen) and he was a 2 star. 
 I’m just used to highly rated prospects impacting games. 

I agree and the team I follow hasn't been as talent laden over the years like a Pahokee or Belle Glade though we are a bigger school.  However, our John Walker that graduated in May was a 4* but in my opinion should have been a 5* because of reasons you sight.  He had all the measurables 6'3", 300lbs., quickness in the trenches, heavy hands, etc.. and every team we played GAME PLANNED FOR HIM; but to no avail.  As a DT he led our team in tackles with over 70 his junior year and repeated that again as a senior though we had a LB lead with over 80.  He was a massive headache for opposing teams and many of those coaches verified how elite he really was.  Our team had 19 INT during his junior campaign because of his 13 sacks and constant pressure.  He was heavily recruited by the Alabama's, Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, etc.. yet decided to stay home and committed to UCF.  I believe he will be an instant impact player there.  Playmaking ability should be the top criteria but I know it isn't based on the 2 DB's we just graduated who were also excellent players:  Ja'Keem Jackson (@ Florida) a 4* and Bo Mascoe (@ Rutgers) a 3*.  In my humble opinion Bo is the better of the two but he is 5'10" while Ja'Keem is 6'1" and therein lies the rub.  

[KeemD321]

1 hour ago, 561_Fan said:

I’m just used to highly ranked guys, having impacts on games. Akeem Dent played at Pahokee as a sophomore (#1 CB in the class) and made A LOT of plays that justified his ranking. Janoris Jenkins had maybe 70 tackles and 6 picks his senior season . DeVontray Hampton (SR starter at Bethune Cookman) had over 100 tackles, 10 forced fumbles, and about 6 ints his senior season (most impressive film I’ve seen) and he was a 2 star. 
 I’m just used to highly rated prospects impacting games. 

That's the same thing as Cocoa star that just enrolled at OSU as a safety he was the number 1 ranked corner as a freshman and sophomore due to his play on Varsity as an 8th grader freshman and sophomore. But got reranked as an athlete which dropped his overall ranking but he ended up as a 4 star athlete instead of a high 4 star corner or safety.  Even Cormani McClain was avoided most games. Alot of the top DBs I noticed play both ways as well. I feel like it's a way to increase game film for them and they are usually the top players on the team and make impact plays on the offensive side as well.

[PinellasFB]

I've been following recruiting for decades.  By far the biggest way to get a scholarship offer is to attend a camp and perform in front of evaluators.  High school production really doesn't translate to college production so it's all about your measurable skills and how well you do at these camps against your peers.  

[561_Fan]

2 hours ago, PinellasFB said:

I've been following recruiting for decades.  By far the biggest way to get a scholarship offer is to attend a camp and perform in front of evaluators.  High school production really doesn't translate to college production so it's all about your measurable skills and how well you do at these camps against your peers.  

I understand that, but if your supposed to be THAT GUY, then there should be some production ( unless your a WR playing with subpar OL and QB play or a CB that no one throws at). I don’t see how a 4/5 star can have low production, when you’re playing 10-13 games. You should have some production to match the measurables 

[Sthatch]

1 hour ago, 561_Fan said:

I understand that, but if your supposed to be THAT GUY, then there should be some production ( unless your a WR playing with subpar OL and QB play or a CB that no one throws at). I don’t see how a 4/5 star can have low production, when you’re playing 10-13 games. You should have some production to match the measurables 

 

[PinellasFB]

20 hours ago, 561_Fan said:

I understand that, but if your supposed to be THAT GUY, then there should be some production ( unless your a WR playing with subpar OL and QB play or a CB that no one throws at). I don’t see how a 4/5 star can have low production, when you’re playing 10-13 games. You should have some production to match the measurables 

Well this is why high school production doesn't translate to college production at all.  In general, a D1 player will be one of the best players on the field and is generally the focus of an offense or defense so production should be high as you say.  Using your example, I would expect a P5 player to have some impressive defensive numbers *but* there could be reasons to limit his numbers.  For example, if they were a loaded team and destroyed most teams by half time, he could be only playing half a game most of the times.  If the other teams go 3-and-out every possession, that too will limit your defensive stats because there are just a few opportunities per game, especially for a safety against running teams.  Anyway, I guarantee you any P5 player will have phenomenal skills to get that offer so no need to question production.  

I will say crazy stats in high school will get your film looked at, at least.  For example, if you set the state record for rushing yards in a game or season, I guarantee you evaluators will look at the film and find out who this kid is, especially in this state.

[Perspective]

6 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

I will say crazy stats in high school will get your film looked at, at least.  For example, if you set the state record for rushing yards in a game or season, I guarantee you evaluators will look at the film and find out who this kid is, especially in this state.

So, you're saying that Alabama's decision to take a chance on that Derrick Henry guy from Yulee was a pretty smart move?  

[PinellasFB]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

So, you're saying that Alabama's decision to take a chance on that Derrick Henry guy from Yulee was a pretty smart move?  

LOL have you seen his HS film?  It's literally a large NFL sized back vs HS safeties and LBs.  Not a fair fight and quite hilarious to watch. 

[Perspective]

3 hours ago, PinellasFB said:

LOL have you seen his HS film?  It's literally a large NFL sized back vs HS safeties and LBs.  Not a fair fight and quite hilarious to watch. 

I have seen his film . . . that's why I chose him as my example. 

Best example ever of a man amongst boys.  

[Ray Icaza]

On 7/6/2023 at 12:34 PM, 561_Fan said:

I understand that, but if your supposed to be THAT GUY, then there should be some production ( unless your a WR playing with subpar OL and QB play or a CB that no one throws at). I don’t see how a 4/5 star can have low production, when you’re playing 10-13 games. You should have some production to match the measurables 

Had to return to this topic as our squad has a clear example of "Potential" vs "Production" when it comes to recruiting especially at the LB position.  Our leading tackler last year was sophomore Robert Mikal Lee (82 total), is a rising junior and in my opinion the best of that group but has no "STARS" ...6' - 200 lbs.   On the other hand you have 4* Elijah Melendez also a rising Junior, a physical specimen at 6'2" - 220 lbs that can bench 400 lbs & 25 reps @ 225 lbs.  He missed the first half of our season (RB) with an early knee issue only to return and mainly play LB for about 7 games totaling about 15 total tackles.  He has about 25 offers including all the FL schools plus the SEC powers.....Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Tenn, etc.... Not meant as a criticism as I do believe he will have a breakout year, but to drive home that point in the opening sentence.  Then you have LB Jalen Bell, a rising senior at 6'3" - 196 who was a tremendous playmaker (56 total tkl) last year garnering 2nd team All-State in 4S who is also "Starless".  These two without stars are gathering offers but based on production as well as their physicality or measurables should be 3*, but what do I know???

[561_Fan]

5 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Had to return to this topic as our squad has a clear example of "Potential" vs "Production" when it comes to recruiting especially at the LB position.  Our leading tackler last year was sophomore Robert Mikal Lee (82 total), is a rising junior and in my opinion the best of that group but has no "STARS" ...6' - 200 lbs.   On the other hand you have 4* Elijah Melendez also a rising Junior, a physical specimen at 6'2" - 220 lbs that can bench 400 lbs & 25 reps @ 225 lbs.  He missed the first half of our season (RB) with an early knee issue only to return and mainly play LB for about 7 games totaling about 15 total tackles.  He has about 25 offers including all the FL schools plus the SEC powers.....Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Tenn, etc.... Not meant as a criticism as I do believe he will have a breakout year, but to drive home that point in the opening sentence.  Then you have LB Jalen Bell, a rising senior at 6'3" - 196 who was a tremendous playmaker (56 total tkl) last year garnering 2nd team All-State in 4S who is also "Starless".  These two without stars are gathering offers but based on production as well as their physicality or measurables should be 3*, but what do I know???

Genetics (height, weight, speed) and potential are the tools for evaluation

[PinellasFB]

10 hours ago, 561_Fan said:

Genetics (height, weight, speed) and potential are the tools for evaluation

That's the unfortunate reality of D1 and especially NFL football.  You have to win the genetic lottery to even get a look and many times genetic lottery is way more important than production.  This approach by scouts is proven right too many times to not do it.  Look at unstoppable Micah Parsons for the Cowboys as an example of a guy who had hardly any sacks at Penn State but tested as a generational athletic freak so the Cowboys drafted him high in the first round despite the lack of production and they haven't looked back.  

[nolebull813]

There was a kid who threw 91 touchdowns and only 4 picks in just one season and was a 2 star. 
 

Another guy threw 10 TDs his senior year and was a 4 star. 
 

The recruiting services weren’t ranking their stats. They were ranking their body size. 6’1” 190 against 6’4” 230

The first guy had a good college career at Troy. Corey Robinson was his name. The second guy is Tom Savage who played some games in the NFL for the Texans 

[Ray Icaza]

2 hours ago, PinellasFB said:

That's the unfortunate reality of D1 and especially NFL football.  You have to win the genetic lottery to even get a look and many times genetic lottery is way more important than production.  This approach by scouts is proven right too many times to not do it.  Look at unstoppable Micah Parsons for the Cowboys as an example of a guy who had hardly any sacks at Penn State but tested as a generational athletic freak so the Cowboys drafted him high in the first round despite the lack of production and they haven't looked back.  

Parsons had over 50 sacks during HS playing both ways (DE & RB).  When he arrived at Penn State they moved him to MLB, not a position to accumulate a bunch of sacks.   Point being, he was a 5* for a reason, both Potential and Production. He stuffed the stat sheet at every level and at every position he played.  

[PinellasFB]

2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Parsons had over 50 sacks during HS playing both ways (DE & RB).  When he arrived at Penn State they moved him to MLB, not a position to accumulate a bunch of sacks.   Point being, he was a 5* for a reason, both Potential and Production. He stuffed the stat sheet at every level and at every position he played.  

Fair point.  He probably wasn't the best example of genetics over production but in general, D1 wants genetic lottery and everyone else is a walk-on or D2/D3.  I still can't believe how gifted you have to be just to get an FCS offer, for example.

[Ray Icaza]

2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Parsons had over 50 sacks during HS playing both ways (DE & RB).  When he arrived at Penn State they moved him to MLB, not a position to accumulate a bunch of sacks.   Point being, he was a 5* for a reason, both Potential and Production. He stuffed the stat sheet at every level and at every position he played.  

By the way, his freshman year at Penn State he only started one game out of their 13 on schedule in the MLB position but still managed to lead the team in TACKLES with 82.  Cowboys didn't go out on a limb for an "Athletic Freak" with little production as you claim. 

[Ray Icaza]

54 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

Fair point.  He probably wasn't the best example of genetics over production but in general, D1 wants genetic lottery and everyone else is a walk-on or D2/D3.  I still can't believe how gifted you have to be just to get an FCS offer, for example.

Which is why I made the point at the start of this thread that 3 and even 4 STARS are given to players with those genetics that end up being busts.  The whole industry is a sham when it comes to recruiting as it should be most heavily weighted on what a kid can put on film based on the level of competition, not on the other metrics. 

[561_Fan]

Talked to a former college coach and he said if a recruiting class produces 5/6 starters, then that’s a good class. Recruiting for height, weight, speed over production really isn’t that successful, but I don’t think any P5 coaches can survive the perception that comes from recruiting rankings, if they went away from the norm.