Calling all Mathematicians

[Dr. D]

For those who are interested, the first FHSAA Power Rankings of the year are available:

https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

[PinellasFB]

31 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

For those who are interested, the first FHSAA Power Rankings of the year are available:

https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

Miami Central at #74 in this state?  LOL

[Ray Icaza]

27 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

Miami Central at #74 in this state?  LOL

Don't know whether to laugh or cry.

[nolebull813]

How is this accepted? Josh needs to be sounding the trumpets and telling the FHSAA that this trash has got to be thrown away into the dustbins of history and they need to try again.

[DarterBlue2]

These early rankings are a sick joke. A somewhat intelligent person, with no knowledge off Florida High School Football, if given each team's results, would most likely come up with rankings that made more sense than this. 

When you lack the SKE (skills, knowledge and experience) the best method is the most simple method. Six teams minimum to a district and the top two make the playoffs. Yes, it would yield inequities, but at least the process would be transparent and each team would know from the beginning of the season what they needed to accomplish to be playing past the first week in November.

With the current system, it's not even clear how one should schedule in order to have a decent shot at making the playoffs if you are not the winner of your district.

It seems to me that the FHSAA and the politicians in Tallahassee are on a mission to destroy the high school game in the state of Florida. 

[Dr. D]

No argument here.  However, a review of last year's final rankings, as well as these new rankings, makes it clear that the current system rewards winning percentage much more than strength of schedule.  Last year, the overall #1 seeded team in 8 of the 9 classifications was undefeated (there were no undefeated teams in 4M).  This week, the overall #1 seeded team in 8 of the 9 classifications was undefeated.  It takes an extremely strong strength of schedule component to overcome anything less than an undefeated record.  So if one wanted to maximize their chances of making the playoffs as an at-large qualifier and/or achieve the highest seed possible, one would schedule as many winnable games as possible, regardless of the strength of opposition.

I am waiting for someone to come on here and say, "there are not enough games in the sample size for the results to be accurate; the rankings will work themselves out at the end of the season", etc., etc.  If that's the case, why does the FHSAA put these rankings out at this point in the season (other than to cause angst in those who have an interest)?  

[Longtime Observer]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

These early rankings are a sick joke. A somewhat intelligent person, with no knowledge off Florida High School Football, if given each team's results, would most likely come up with rankings that made more sense than this. 

When you lack the SKE (skills, knowledge and experience) the best method is the most simple method. Six teams minimum to a district and the top two make the playoffs. Yes, it would yield inequities, but at least the process would be transparent and each team would know from the beginning of the season what they needed to accomplish to be playing past the first week in November.

With the current system, it's not even clear how one should schedule in order to have a decent shot at making the playoffs if you are not the winner of your district.

It seems to me that the FHSAA and the politicians in Tallahassee are on a mission to destroy the high school game in the state of Florida. 

Actually, it seems perfectly clear: schedule as easy as possible to lose as rarely as possible.

The first thing I notice is they don't even offer a sort by Class option. Then, when I look at these rankings, I am reminded of just how incompetent the FHSAA is. And this is why the idea of an "Open Division" for the "best" teams regardless of size or county is probably never going to work. The FHSAA is simply too incompetent to rank the teams with any sort of accuracy. We'd end up with an "open division" that would have teams like Williston and Bartow in, and Miami Central out. LMAO

[VeniceIndianFan]

8 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

Actually, it seems perfectly clear: schedule as easy as possible to lose as rarely as possible.

The first thing I notice is they don't even offer a sort by Class option. Then, when I look at these rankings, I am reminded of just how incompetent the FHSAA is. And this is why the idea of an "Open Division" for the "best" teams regardless of size or county is probably never going to work. The FHSAA is simply too incompetent to rank the teams with any sort of accuracy. We'd end up with an "open division" that would have teams like Williston and Bartow in, and Miami Central out. LMAO

Winning percentage seems to be more important than strength of schedule, right? So, let's say for example in 4S: by every subjective measure, Manatee has played a considerably worse schedule than Venice. Let's say Manatee has a great night 9 days from now and beats Venice on their own field (a real possibility.) This could potentially leave Manatee, (and possibly Buccholz,) as the only 2 teams in 4S who are undefeated. If this is the case, that potentially leaves: Treasure Coast, Lakeland, Kissimmee Osceola, Bartram Trail, Vero Beach, and Deland with no possibility of hosting the state-semifinal game if Manatee and Buccholz both make it all the way to round 4 of the playoffs, even though all of the other state-hopeful teams in 4S that I listed have played much more challenging schedules and will finish with at least 1 loss on the regular season. This doesn't seem fair at all. Manatee and Buccholz must be very pleased with the way this looks on paper. 

[THAT S--T WAS FUNNY]

With next year being a new 2 year cycle, it should be interesting to see how teams approach scheduling. There might be some average to below average teams getting a lot of looks by good to great teams like they are the hot girl at school. With the way these rankings are the good to great teams are the ugly chick that no one wants to date. 

[DarterBlue2]

19 minutes ago, THAT S--T WAS FUNNY said:

With next year being a new 2 year cycle, it should be interesting to see how teams approach scheduling. There might be some average to below average teams getting a lot of looks by good to great teams like they are the hot girl at school. With the way these rankings are the good to great teams are the ugly chick that no one wants to date. 

It makes a lot of sense if you wish to guarantee a playoff spot. It may or may not benefit, when it comes to making a deep playoff run. But of course, if you don't make the playoffs, a deep run is moot. 

[Longtime Observer]

12 hours ago, VeniceIndianFan said:

Winning percentage seems to be more important than strength of schedule, right? So, let's say for example in 4S: by every subjective measure, Manatee has played a considerably worse schedule than Venice. Let's say Manatee has a great night 9 days from now and beats Venice on their own field (a real possibility.) This could potentially leave Manatee, (and possibly Buccholz,) as the only 2 teams in 4S who are undefeated. If this is the case, that potentially leaves: Treasure Coast, Lakeland, Kissimmee Osceola, Bartram Trail, Vero Beach, and Deland with no possibility of hosting the state-semifinal game if Manatee and Buccholz both make it all the way to round 4 of the playoffs, even though all of the other state-hopeful teams in 4S that I listed have played much more challenging schedules and will finish with at least 1 loss on the regular season. This doesn't seem fair at all. Manatee and Buccholz must be very pleased with the way this looks on paper. 

Yup. And, actually, if Manatee managed to pull the upset, Venice may well not make the playoffs! As it is, Lakeland and Venice are probably looking at a max of one home playoff game. No matter what they do the rest of the way...

[Cat_Scratch2]

No matter what your schedule is you better win you district first and foremost. The crappy teams will probably be washed out before semi finals or total chaos will rule when it comes to scheduling in the next few years.

[Longtime Observer]

2 hours ago, Cat_Scratch2 said:

No matter what your schedule is you better win you district first and foremost. The crappy teams will probably be washed out before semi finals or total chaos will rule when it comes to scheduling in the next few years.

I think we're going to see a lot of match ups where both teams are mediocre or worse. Someone has to advance! Mix in the awful playoff pairings with some awful officiating-which generally favors the perceived underdog, especially if they are at home- and it's going to be chaos in the playoffs as well.

As has been the case for all time, it is generally best to schedule easy and win most/all your games. The ONLY times you should schedule difficultly are if you: 1) need money from greater ticket sales. Even in that case, you can be a bit "choosey" as a traditional power that gets good crowds and is down is preferable to a major national power that isn't going to bring many fans (see IMG or an OOS team) OR 2) are in an area where there is a lot of competition for the best area players and you need to distinguish your program through tough games. 

[Perspective]

13 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

Yup. And, actually, if Manatee managed to pull the upset, Venice may well not make the playoffs! As it is, Lakeland and Venice are probably looking at a max of one home playoff game. No matter what they do the rest of the way...

That could be a problem for Venice . . . I don't think they're allowed to play road games.  

[Cat_Scratch2]

Just my 2 cents. The Venice team I watched play Cocoa should be in the semis at the very least... They are a good program. I do know that the competition is tough in that class though. Lots of "what ifs" are going to happen along the path to the playoffs. I honestly think Venice could win 4S if they can keep the penalties to a minimum. They have the horses on both sides of the ball.

[DarterBlue2]

31 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch2 said:

Just my 2 cents. The Venice team I watched play Cocoa should be in the semis at the very least... They are a good program. I do know that the competition is tough in that class though. Lots of "what ifs" are going to happen along the path to the playoffs. I honestly think Venice could win 4S if they can keep the penalties to a minimum. They have the horses on both sides of the ball.

I agree with you. Not a shoo in, but certainly a strong contender if they make the playoffs. 

[Dr. D]

Week 6 FHSAA Rankings are out.  Good news, Central is up to #50 in the state.  https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football