Class 3A, Round 2 Previews

[SPCjessica2004]

So I didn't post game previews/predictions last week due to some family stuff that was going on. It's all better now, so here's some stuff we dug up for the 2nd round of the 3A playoffs. Here we goooooo!!

Chaminade Madonna (8-2) vs Palmer Trinity (10-2)

First, I want to give a legitimate and heartfelt congratulations to Palmer Trinity and coach Mark Reese for a very good 10-2 season which saw them win a playoff game. The issue is they go from knocking out their rival Westminster Christian to..hmm.. playing the Miami Hurricanes.  Chaminade-Madonna is 100% healthy and coming off 2 weeks of rest. There will be more time to talk about Chaminade in the coming weeks, but this is likely to be the most lopsided score in all of the FHSAA football playoffs for this week. Chaminade has quietly remarked they want to be the first team to win a state championship while not giving up a single point.

The Pick: Chaminade by 50+

American Heritage Delray (8-3) at Benjamin School (9-1)

This has the chance to be a dandy! American Heritage has made strong strides in returning to the powerhouse status of team in Stallions past. The Stallions scored some good early season wins over 8A Belen Jesuit and Monsignor Pace, but stumbled in the middle part of their schedule against Uschool, Bishop Verot, Glades Central. The offense has been hit or miss, but the defense has been stellar for the most part.  Last week the Stallions upended a good Calvary Christian Academy football team 42-14.

Benjamin School has really come on in recent years. The 2018 version is one play away from being 10-0. Overall, the Buccaneers were able to finish just above the Stallions to grad a bye week and prepare for the playoffs.  The Bucs have 3 rushers with 400 or more yards, and a Qb who has thrown for just shy of 1500. Expect star athlete Kaiir Elam to have a solid game in this one.

The Pick:  The strength of schedule argument has merit here. Benjamin's opponents combined records are 56-47 AHD's 65-50, but AHD has played some powerhouses. If AHD can get the passing game on track- a tricky thing to do with Elam and company on the other side of the field, they should win this one by a fair amount.

Heritage Delray 28, Benjamin School 14

Pensacola Catholic (6-5) at Florida High (6-3)

If I could attend any game this week this would probably be my first choice. These teams are very evenly matched, they've both played competitive schedules and I think both have a lot of talent and are well coached. Now that I'm done giving cookie cutter responses, here's how I see it going down.

The Crusaders star RB Ja'kobi Jackson was strong last week against a good Ft. White team as the Crusaders ran for 391 yards.  Florida High presents significant challenges for the Crusaders on defense, particularly the combination of Willie Taggart Jr and Bryson Hill at QB. The Seminoles are pretty well balanced and while they are young in the secondary should have an advantage in the trenches.

The Pick: Florida High was my preseason pick to get to Orlando and I'm sticking with it, but this is going to be a very difficult hill for the Seminoles to climb.

Florida High 34, Pensacola Catholic 31

Calvary Christian (7-4) at Tampa Berkeley Prep (6-3)

This is a Class 3A-Region 3 rematch from week 2 of the regular season. Berkeley Prep won that game 14-7. Fast forward to the 2nd round of the playoffs and the teams meet in Tampa again.  In the first game, Berkeley Prep QB Josh Youngblood was moved to RB as he broke his throwing hand after their week 1 loss to CCC. Youngblood is now back and the offense has been prolific again.

Calvary Christian has caught fire the past 2 weeks. They defeated Lake Highland Prep in Orlando and then defeated Sarasota Cardinal Mooney in Sarasota. Calvary has a very talented QB/RB/WR combination that has given defenses fits this year.

The Pick: This is a really good QB battle between two of the better QB's you will find. The difference this time is that Calvary is pretty beat up along their lines thus my thinking is that for Calvary to advance to their second straight regional final they will need to win a high scoring game.  Berkeley Prep is known for their ball control offense and likely doesn't want to get into a shootout with Calvary.   I think Berkeley Prep gets the job done in a close contest that goes back and forth throughout the game.

Berkeley prep 17, Calvary Christian 10

Tampa Catholic (8-3) at Clearwater Central Catholic (10-0)

Another rematch in Class 3A-Region 3. CCC won in week 3 34-14 in Tampa. Tampa Catholic knocked off Lakeland Christian last week 13-10 in a game that finished under controversy as many LCS fans feel that there was a fumble late in the game that should have been awarded to LCS. I've seen the film and I actually agree. I don't know if LCS would have won the game, but it would have likely forced overtime at worst- still, this is a pretty good Tampa Catholic team that has 3 top notch running backs in Jaylen Bussey, Andrew Ellis and Caleb Tate. DJ Taylor has also stepped up his game in recent weeks. TC's offensive line averages out to 6'4, 292lbs which is the biggest average offensive line in 3A.

CCC appears to finally be healthy for the first time this season which is an interesting statement to make for a 10-0 team. The health issue was exaggerated in week 9 in a road game against Tampa Jesuit as CCC had multiple players ejected. Due to injury, CCC has started a combination of 7 freshmen and sophomores most of the season. If Jerzhan Newton is healthy that changes to entire make-up of the Marauder offense especially with the punch the Marauder WR's are packing. CCC should also be welcoming back some of their key upperclassmen now that they're healthy, but it probably speaks well for the programs depth that the younger plays stepped in and didn't miss a beat.

The Pick: This is a rivalry game first and foremost so tensions are already going to be pretty high. TC will give CCC their A+ game and throw the kitchen sink at CCC, but the Marauders love playing TC at home more than anybody else in the state.

CCC 42, TC 21

Father Lopez(9-3) vs The First Academy (8-1)

Father Lopez is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and knocked off Melbourne Central Catholic 23-21 in round 1. Orlando First Academy had a bye week last week.  The Royals of First Academy have the talent to get to the state semi-finals, bolstered by their wing-t attack and lead by 4 running backs with 200 or more yards the Royals are a potent offensive team.

Father Lopez has had a strong season this year and played competitive teams from bigger classifications with success. QB TJ Lockley and RB Wayne Matthews have been potent for the Green Wave this season.

THE PICK:  Like many other games, these teams are evenly matched but Orlando First Academy should get a W here.

First Academy 28, Father Lopez 20

Taylor County (6-5) vs St. Joseph Academy (9-0)

This is the very definition of throw the records out. On paper the Flashes of St. Joseph appear to be a dominant team, the reality is they haven’t played a team of Taylor County’s caliber often preferring to play 2A or teams who do not participate in the FHSAA playoff system. The Flashes do deserve respect since they still needed to win the games on their schedule.

Taylor County might be 6-5, but they’ve played a competitive schedule with Ft. White, CAI, Wakulla, Dixie County, Suwannee and Baldwin. Da’corian Bellamy is in the running for 3A player of the year and the Bulldogs are peaking at the right time.

THE PICK: Chalk one up for a good public school program:

Taylor County 42, St. Joseph Academy 14

Melbourne Holy Trinity (6-4) vs King’s Academy (9-1)

King’s Academy finished the season 9-1 and was rewarded with a bye week. Holy Trinity it the road and pulled off an upset win over a good Cardinal Newman football team. Holy Trinity might not have a huge football roster, but they are talented. Larry Hill the do-everything running back and QB Dru Nickson lead a potent offense on the road for the second week.

King’s Academy is still elated for knocking off rival Benjamin school 2 weeks ago. King’s is a balanced offensive team with QB Justin Wake leading the way with 1600 yards passing and 500 rushing.

THE PICK: Melbourne Holy Trinity has done a lot with a little, but King’s simply has more this week.

King’s Academy 32,  Holy Trinity 14


 

[LakelandGator]

17 hours ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

So I didn't post game previews/predictions last week due to some family stuff that was going on. It's all better now, so here's some stuff we dug up for the 2nd round of the 3A playoffs. Here we goooooo!!


Tampa Catholic (8-3) at Clearwater Central Catholic (10-0)

Another rematch in Class 3A-Region 3. CCC won in week 3 34-14 in Tampa. Tampa Catholic knocked off Lakeland Christian last week 13-10 in a game that finished under controversy as many LCS fans feel that there was a fumble late in the game that should have been awarded to LCS. I've seen the film and I actually agree. I don't know if LCS would have won the game, but it would have likely forced overtime at worst- still, this is a pretty good Tampa Catholic team that has 3 top notch running backs in Jaylen Bussey, Andrew Ellis and Caleb Tate. DJ Taylor has also stepped up his game in recent weeks. TC's offensive line averages out to 6'4, 292lbs which is the biggest average offensive line in 3A.

CCC 42, TC 21




 

Good job as always Jessica. And yes we agree on the Lakeland Christian/TC ending.

TC's size is pretty impressive for a 3A school with a 45 man roster. In contrast 7A Lakeland rotates 8 guys at OL who averages 6"2" 294.

https://twitter.com/CountyPolk

[SPCjessica2004]

13 minutes ago, LakelandGator said:

Good job as always Jessica. And yes we agree on the Lakeland Christian/TC ending.

TC's size is pretty impressive for a 3A school with a 45 man roster. In contrast 7A Lakeland rotates 8 guys at OL who averages 6"2" 294.

https://twitter.com/CountyPolk

Lakeland Gator,

Thank you! :-)    Tampa Catholic is very proud of their offensive line play and take tremendous pride in anybody asking how big/tough they are. The two key cogs on their offensive line are the Sandlin brothers. Both are 6'6. The one brother is 312, the other is 298. Aaron Smith, who transferred from Anclote is 6'4 286. The center is the smallest player at 6'3 277. They then rotate some young guys in the 6'1 280 range.   It's my understanding that the bulk of their offensive line are not kids from Tampa, but the outskirts (Plant City, Anclote).

As for the LCS/TC game ending, I'm of the opinion (and my brother, father and husband are all in agreement) that the officials missed 2 blatant calls that swayed the favor toward Tampa Catholic.  They both came in the 4th quarter. TC was up 10-7 and driving the ball when they attempted a pass, the pass was picked off and returned about 80 yards for TD by LCS. The official called a questionable penalty on LCS that negated the return.

The second was flat out wrong on on the officials part. With the game 10-10 and TC driving with under 2 minutes left, TC fumbled the snap and it was cleanly recovered by LCS but the officials awarded the ball back to TC. Now, the officials are human but on the film that was sent to me it was clear LCS recovered the ball.  I would imagine that had that been properly called the game would have gone to overtime.  I was not at the game, but I've spoken to TC fans who were also perplexed by the call.





 

[Phfootball9]

Pensacola Catholic has really improved each week this year. The change from the spread to a gun double wing system really has helped them IMO. It would not shock me at all to see them in the semi and their game against AHD shows they would have a shot at getting to Orlando and they are very young.

[SPCjessica2004]

Accountability Time! 

I'm hard on myself when I pick wrong games, but I'm not above bragging when I do well! I'm happy to say I went 8 for 8 last week, hurray! Let's look at it:

Chaminade vs Palmer Trinity: I had Chaminade by 50+ and they won by 62. This was completely expected. Palmer Trinity would struggle against the vast majority of 3A teams, so playing the best team in 3A was always going to be too much to ask. Trinity did finish with a double digit win season though, so there's that.

Benjamin vs American Heritage:  I picked the Stallions by 14, but they won by 4. Many feel that AHD winning was an upset, but I never believed that. It would have been an upset had Benjamin won. Heritage has taken some lumps the past few years so the fact they're back in a regional final is good for the programs future.

Berkeley defeated Calvary Christian: I had Berkeley by 7, they won by 8. It sounds like Calvary started off hot but once the Bucs slowed the pace down and started their ball control offense the Warriors simply couldn't keep up. Calvary had a very good season and bring back quite a bit next year. Berkeley Prep is a mainstay in 3A though, they've had some good post season runs over the past 10 years.

Taylor County defeated St. Joseph Academy: I had Taylor County by 28 they won by 26. Taylor County won big in this one and that shouldn't surprise anybody. St. Joseph Academy, similar to Palmer Trinity would get defeated by the bulk of 3A teams. Taylor County has done a great job turning their season around. Much better than the record indicated.

Florida High defeated Pensacola Catholic: I had FSU High by 3, they won by 4.  This was my personal 3A game of the week and it lived up to the hype. Catholic traded blows for the Seminoles but wore down late due to fatigue.  With what Catholic has coming back next year the focus should be on accumulating points to get home games. Catholic will be a threat in years to come.

King's Academy defeated Holy Trinity:  I had King's by 18, they won by 9. Good win for King's Academy. I figured Nate Hooks would get his Tigers to hang with King's and they did, but King's simply had more depth which allowed them to hold on.

First Academy defeated Father Lopez:   I had First Academy by 8 they won by 20. What started as a competitive game turned into a 3 TD win for 1st Academy. Once that Wing-T wore down the Green Wave defense it was going to have to turn into a shootout. Father Lopez had a good season though. The playoff win over MCC represents a step forward for the team.

CCC defeated TC:  I picked CCC to win 42-21, the final ended up being 30-3.  I communicated with some Tampa Catholic individuals who admitted this morning they purposely kicked a field goal with the game out of control to avoid being shutout. CCC racked up around 400 yards offense and held TC to under 90.

[181pl]

If Tampa Catholic hadn't lost half of its team to transfers (QB Charlie Dean (Hillsborough), WRs Joe Hodge and Ahmarean Brown (Jefferson) they might have made some more noise.

 

CCC is an excellent team. Hopefully they can compete with Chaminade. They are overdue.

[SPCjessica2004]

8 minutes ago, 181pl said:

If Tampa Catholic hadn't lost half of its team to transfers (QB Charlie Dean (Hillsborough), WRs Joe Hodge and Ahmarean Brown (Jefferson) they might have made some more noise

181pl,

These are all great points and a big THANK YOU for bringing it up. Look at the flat out D-1 star power that TC lost in transfers alone going into 2018:

Charlie Dean QB
Kiael Kelly  QB
Ahmarean Brown   WR/DB
Joe Hodge       WR/DB
Tyus Gibson   OL/DL
Qunicy Hipps Jr    LB

 As awesome as those players are I thought when Coach Gregory and Coach Fenton left it set the program back more than us as outsiders realized at the time. Coach McIntyre was handed a talented team but it had some glaring holes through no fault of his own.

TC has 2 things to consider going forward. 1 is that they're almost guaranteed to move to 4A next year which will present issues to them playoff wise. The current cutoff for 3A is 680. 4A starts at 681. TC will be reporting a 2018 student population of about 730 (I'm told between 725-735) which is down from their 763 student population of 2017.  I expect the announced 3A/4A cutoff for 2019/2020 to be 711, give or take 5 in either direction.

Historically the FHSAA lets Tampa Catholic move down in class via travel hardship petition to play in 3A, but with districts no longer used in 1-4A TC could only move down based on a hardship appeal. Considering TC regularly plays teams hundreds of miles away I don't see any hardship.  I'm thinking they'll end up in 4A Region 3 with Cocoa, Lake Highland, LaBelle, Avon Park. Bishop Verot would replace TC in Class 3A Region 3 as they are well below the likely new cutoff of 730ish (only reporting 696 for 2018 I believe).

The other is a bigger issue. Keeping players. TC has a good young base to build around but there are rumors that a few of their players are looking at other schools in the area as you're reading this message board post. TC can't sustain itself swapping transfers in for transfers out. Hopefully the younger players opt to stay and build the program going forward. 

Tampa Catholic will be a hot button topic during the off season.







 

[181pl]

TC always attracts excellent talent but can't hang onto it. I knew there were a few others. Thx for pointing them out.

 

TC is a launching point, not a destination. Hoping their staff can change that because they are a program that has had enough success to where this shouldn't be happening.

[181pl]

And the whole system is whacky right now with too many classes, a horrible points system and small districts. See my numerous other posts on how to fix it. lol

[DisabledAccount]

Just now, 181pl said:

And the whole system is whacky right now with too many classes, a horrible points system and small districts. See my numerous other posts on how to fix it. lol

And if you fix the other 2 the point system wouldn't have the same issues it has now 

 

Small districts/regions resulting from too many classifications is what is causing the issues we see

 

I think the other sports lowering the number of classifications is going to be a huge upgrade in the playoffs in those sports

[badbird]

51 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

And if you fix the other 2 the point system wouldn't have the same issues it has now 

 

Small districts/regions resulting from too many classifications is what is causing the issues we see

 

I think the other sports lowering the number of classifications is going to be a huge upgrade in the playoffs in those sports

not true Columbia fan.  The point system screwed Liberty and Seminole this year.  Both went 8-2 and are in a large district (7 teams) The point system is worse this year because they gave more points for losing.  They got it wrong.  Fixing the other two issues doesn't fix the point system. 

 

In fact if you fix the other two issues I believe it would cause more problems for the flawed point system.   Putting more teams in a region just means there are more teams deserving and more teams will get screwed by point system that really doesn't decide who is more deserving.  

 

If you fix the first two issues you don't need the point system.  Fix the first two issues and then Let champ and runner up get in and use a point system to seed.  Let who makes the playoffs be decided on the field not some flip of the coin or some stupid point system.

 

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, badbird said:

not true Columbia fan.  The point system screwed Liberty and Seminole this year.  Both went 8-2 and are in a large district (7 teams) The point system is worse this year because they gave more points for losing.  They got it wrong.  Fixing the other two issues doesn't fix the point system. 

 

In fact if you fix the other two issues I believe it would cause more problems for the flawed point system.   Putting more teams in a region just means there are more teams deserving and more teams will get screwed by point system that really doesn't decide who is more deserving.  

 

If you fix the first two issues you don't need the point system.  Fix the first two issues and then Let champ and runner up get in and use a point system to seed.  Let who makes the playoffs be decided on the field not some flip of the coin or some stupid point system.

 

Then they need to move some teams around (like put MNW and/or Norland in the broward district) because both of them were more deserving than Boyd Anderson who would have made it on old system

 

Perhaps what they could do is go back to that wild card system in late 90s where strong districts could get more than 2 teams but they just had 1 less district in each region 

[DisabledAccount]

Interesting to see Florida High and Taylor County in 3a region 1 finals (both public schools) in a primary private class

 

How do those 2 stack up with the teams in region 2?

[badbird]

36 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Then they need to move some teams around (like put MNW and/or Norland in the broward district) because both of them were more deserving than Boyd Anderson who would have made it on old system

 

Perhaps what they could do is go back to that wild card system in late 90s where strong districts could get more than 2 teams but they just had 1 less district in each region 

you keep referring to this old system.  Smaller classes more districts isn't the old system.  It is the really old system

[SPCjessica2004]

15 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Interesting to see Florida High and Taylor County in 3a region 1 finals (both public schools) in a primary private class

 

How do those 2 stack up with the teams in region 2?

Columbia,

If I was ranking only the 4 remaining teams in 3A north I would go:

1) Florida High
2) King's Academy
3) First Academy
4) Taylor County

Taylor County is doing very well for themselves and are are definitely in the conversation in north 3A. They defeated a very good Baldwin team and then beat previously undefeated St. Joseph's Academy. The issue is that Florida High or King's is a step up from the teams they've played. 

First Academy is a wild card. They run an excellent rendition of the Wing-T along with a long time coaching staff.   I'm still rolling with Florida High but they will be tested.