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Second FHSAA rankings out


Dr. D
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6 minutes ago, Jimmyb80 said:

Can some explain to me that if maxpreps is doing this why it doesn’t match maxpreps rankings on there site…also as a Vero fan there is no way they are the 11th best team in state and 1st in 4s 

The rankings for the top 5 are better than they were for the first release. The class rankings are all over the place and still don't make sense. If it wasn't for district play alot of the top teams would barely make the playoffs as low seeds in their region. Right now Cocoa is ranked 19th in 2S.

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29 minutes ago, Jimmyb80 said:

The other odd thing…treasure coast is 1-4 but ranked top 3 in 4s on Maxpreps ranking due to crazy SOS but on FHSAA they are #260 in the state! 

He have the same issue. We did not get off to the start we hoped at 2-3 currently. Maxpreps has us 6th in 4m Region 2 but fhsaa has us 15th in the region. Our SOS on maxpreps is like a 16.1 and a rating of 18  but FHSAA our SOS is a 1 and rating a -1.7... to make it more interesting... 2-4 Plant City, who has 1 more loss than us and lost to us by 40 is rated higher than us on FHSAA. I asked the FHSAA and maxpreps to please provide some clarity how this is possible. FHSAA ignored the email and maxpreps sent me their generic link on how ratings work... answered nothing. 

 

The FHSAA needs to do better. We are hoping to push for a 6-7-8 spot and have no clue how numbers are even being used or what things are based on. It is an issue. 

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12 minutes ago, 181pl said:

it’s such a stupid process. Just have large enough districts, at least 7 or 8 teams in each district, and the top two make the playoffs. It’s that easy. Tiny districts with rankings doesn’t add anything to the mix.

I agree with you with the exception that I would make the district minimum be 6 teams as in some areas more would present a greater travel issue. 

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2 hours ago, Jimmyb80 said:

Can some explain to me that if maxpreps is doing this why it doesn’t match maxpreps rankings on there site…also as a Vero fan there is no way they are the 11th best team in state and 1st in 4s 

From what I understand FHSAA forced maxpreps to remove margin of victory from their rankings which is always bad for any relative power measurement formula.  This is known as the "elo chess" ranking and most statisticians hate it when it comes to comparing the relative strength of sports teams because MoV is an extremely meaningful power measurement.  Just looking at these rankings, they are quite wonky and I'm not sure the elo chess maxpreps ranking is any better than the previous RPI.  The maxpreps standard ranking is much, much, much better.

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1 minute ago, PinellasFB said:

From what I understand FHSAA forced maxpreps to remove margin of victory from their rankings which is always bad for any relative power measurement formula.  This is known as the "elo chess" ranking and most statisticians hate it when it comes to comparing the relative strength of sports teams because MoV is an extremely meaningful power measurement.  Just looking at these rankings, they are quite wonky and I'm not sure the elo chess maxpreps ranking is any better than the previous RPI.  The maxpreps standard ranking is much, much, much better.

Agreed fully. Just cap the MoV. If you hit a running clock you've reached the maximum it matters for MoV. So cap it at 35. So racking up 70 on someone doesn't benefit the team but 35 tells you there was a gap in talent in that game

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19 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

I agree with you with the exception that I would make the district minimum be 6 teams as in some areas more would present a greater travel issue. 

This is really the main problem.  In metro areas, a 2 hr bus ride can turn into 3+ hrs in Friday pm rush hour traffic.  Throw in occasional Thursday games and kids are getting home past midnight on a school night.  It is just too hard on the kids to have larger districts.

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3 minutes ago, Steinbrenner Warriors said:

Agreed fully. Just cap the MoV. If you hit a running clock you've reached the maximum it matters for MoV. So cap it at 35. So racking up 70 on someone doesn't benefit the team but 35 tells you there was a gap in talent in that game

That is actually a pretty good idea and gets rid of the one argument that people would have against MOV 

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7 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

From what I understand FHSAA forced maxpreps to remove margin of victory from their rankings which is always bad for any relative power measurement formula.  This is known as the "elo chess" ranking and most statisticians hate it when it comes to comparing the relative strength of sports teams because MoV is an extremely meaningful power measurement.  Just looking at these rankings, they are quite wonky and I'm not sure the elo chess maxpreps ranking is any better than the previous RPI.  The maxpreps standard ranking is much, much, much better.

RPI was definitely better and wasn't impacted by previous seasons results like these MaxPreps rankings are 

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18 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

This is really the main problem.  In metro areas, a 2 hr bus ride can turn into 3+ hrs in Friday pm rush hour traffic.  Throw in occasional Thursday games and kids are getting home past midnight on a school night.  It is just too hard on the kids to have larger districts.

it shouldn’t be an issue in metro areas. Tampa/Saint Pete has 70 teams if you count public and private. I’m sure Dade and Broward have twice that. Also, if you look at the classifications, there doesn’t seem to be too much of a difference between suburban and metro. I’ll give you that rural teams have a very tough time with a large district. They should just stay in the region format and have the top X amount of teams make the playoffs based on inter-play and rankings.

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1 hour ago, 181pl said:

it’s such a stupid process. Just have large enough districts, at least 7 or 8 teams in each district, and the top two make the playoffs. It’s that easy. Tiny districts with rankings doesn’t add anything to the mix.

While I am not philosophically opposed to a ranking system there are two big problems with what we are currently doing:

1. An overall lack of transparency.

2. A lack of confidence in Max Preps' ability to provide accurate data and, hence, rankings that are reliable.

Unless these are addressed, reverting to the old system with larger districts seems to be the fairest, most common sense solution.

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7 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

While I am not philosophically opposed to a ranking system there are two big problems with what we are currently doing:

1. An overall lack of transparency.

2. A lack of confidence in Max Preps' ability to provide accurate data and, hence, rankings that are reliable.

Unless these are addressed, reverting to the old system with larger districts seems to be the fairest, most common sense solution.

The switch to MaxPreps sent us backwards

 

I don't see why we didn't just keep the RPI because it was a set formula that we could understand by doing simple math 

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17 minutes ago, 181pl said:

it shouldn’t be an issue in metro areas. Tampa/Saint Pete has 70 teams if you count public and private. I’m sure Dade and Broward have twice that. Also, if you look at the classifications, there doesn’t seem to be too much of a difference between suburban and metro. I’ll give you that rural teams have a very tough time with a large district. They should just stay in the region format and have the top X amount of teams make the playoffs based on inter-play and rankings.

So what go to 2 or 3 metro divisions with larger districts? Honestly I don't see how runner up is better than wild cards because it basically makes it clear if you don't win district you don't control your destiny which I'm perfectly fine with 

 

Either way larger districts are fine with me but I hate the MaxPreps formula as it seems to reward weak minded scheduling

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Guess the issue is what is worth more…curbstomping an inferior team or scheduling defending state champions and HOPE you can keep it close…hard for kids to stay with the process when you getting destroyed by superior teams  week by week…lot easier when you winning regardless of the competition 

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11 minutes ago, Jimmyb80 said:

Guess the issue is what is worth more…curbstomping an inferior team or scheduling defending state champions and HOPE you can keep it close…hard for kids to stay with the process when you getting destroyed by superior teams  week by week…lot easier when you winning regardless of the competition 

Alot of teams who schedule tough I'm sure aren't just doing it for the experience or to try to keep it close. I feel as though the majority are scheduling these games to prepare them for the type of teams or games they will come across deep into the playoffs. Also, I'm sure they feel like they can not only compete but win those games as well. 

Even with Lake Gibson I'm sure they scheduled those games with the thought that they'll have core players back from the run they made last season and their top player who is the top DB in the nation. Little did they know they would lose those players 

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49 minutes ago, KeemD321 said:

Alot of teams who schedule tough I'm sure aren't just doing it for the experience or to try to keep it close. I feel as though the majority are scheduling these games to prepare them for the type of teams or games they will come across deep into the playoffs. Also, I'm sure they feel like they can not only compete but win those games as well. 

Even with Lake Gibson I'm sure they scheduled those games with the thought that they'll have core players back from the run they made last season and their top player who is the top DB in the nation. Little did they know they would lose those players 

I agree I’m sorry I was still using Treasure Coast as an example…they play either 4-5 defending state champs to start the year and to break that up you have Kissimmee osceola at their place…but that’s a lot of pressure to put on kids to win second half of schedule! And one key injury and the season could be over…

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17 minutes ago, Jimmyb80 said:

I agree I’m sorry I was still using Treasure Coast as an example…they play either 4-5 defending state champs to start the year and to break that up you have Kissimmee osceola at their place…but that’s a lot of pressure to put on kids to win second half of schedule! And one key injury and the season could be over…

You're right but it also puts them in situations that they wouldn't face til late in the playoffs. Last season their coach was big on them not closing out the close games. So I guess it's getting them in that mindset of having that mental fortitude to overcome and push through when they are in those nail biters 

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5 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So what go to 2 or 3 metro divisions with larger districts? Honestly I don't see how runner up is better than wild cards because it basically makes it clear if you don't win district you don't control your destiny which I'm perfectly fine with 

 

Either way larger districts are fine with me but I hate the MaxPreps formula as it seems to reward weak minded scheduling

i’m not gonna pretend that I know all the ins and outs of the rural and suburban issues. But from what I see with my own eyes, larger metropolitan areas like Orlando Tampa Jacksonville South Florida etc., should have no problem making 7 or 8 team districts with like size teams. Tampa could have at least four of those districts and the teams wouldn’t have to travel more than seven or 8 miles ever to play their district games.

You don’t have to worry about quality of competition when you have 8 teams. At eight you’ll likely have two worthy teams. Yes occasionally you’d have three really strong teams in a district and somebody would get left out, but that’s the breaks.

 

 

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also with large districts, you don’t have to worry about over scheduling because you’ll have enough district games to play.  You could sprinkle in a state power and maybe a traditional rival who is in a different district due to their size, but everybody would have fairly balanced schedules. Now I’m not saying that an 8 team district in Pasco/Hernando would have the same level of competition as an 8 team district in Miami, but at the end of the day it all comes out in the wash in the playoffs and teams from their own regions deserve to be represented.

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