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Joshua Wilson

RPI for football in FHSAA is official

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The RPI for football with the FHSAA is now official, starting this fall. 

RPI formula is as the following:

Team Winning Percentage: 35%
Opponents Winning Percentage: 35%
Opponents' Opponents Winning Percentage: 30%

RPI Formula

RPI=WP%*0.35+OWP*0.35+OPWP%*0.30

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1 hour ago, Joshua Wilson said:

The RPI for football with the FHSAA is now official, starting this fall. 

RPI formula is as the following:

Team Winning Percentage: 35%
Opponents Winning Percentage: 35%
Opponents' Opponents Winning Percentage: 30%

RPI Formula

RPI=WP%*0.35+OWP*0.35+OPWP%*0.30

Might be a good system

 

I just wish they would have shown a example of how it would look before forcing a vote on it

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Maybe I'm over complicating this but computing the "Opponents' Opponents Winning Percentage: 30%" to me there a couple of different ways one could go about doing this. So I agree the best way to help clear up any potential questions on this, is to use a few teams records from last year.......so we can all see how all of this computed for an entire season?

Thanks! 

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For teams that have to forfeit games (say, for example, for using an ineligible player for the first three games of the season), what record will be used for that team -- their on-the-field record or their record after the forfeits have been factored in?   I doubt there are too many people who will argue that teams who break the rules shouldn't be punished, but what about the teams who play against them (or who play against the teams who play against them)?   Say the rule-breaking team doesn't get caught until the end of season and go from being 9 - 1 to 0 - 10 . . . that could really affect the RPI of a team that played them.   And what about the teams that got beat by the rule-breaking team?  Would they now pick up a win instead?  I can just see this having a domino effect and changing the RPI's of a bunch of other teams. 

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This is stupid.  Columbiafan you have been saying for two years to give them time to work out the kinks and make adjustments.  They have now gone with something completely different and have not tested the numbers at all.  They are using someone else's system that may or may not work.   How can you vote something in when not a single person has run the results of last year and seen if it was a good idea.  This might work better or it might not.  Just like Gadsden getting into the playoffs the fhsaa lets it come down to a coin flip. Flip a coin it may or may not work.   They have no idea. 

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35 minutes ago, badbird said:

This is stupid.  Columbiafan you have been saying for two years to give them time to work out the kinks and make adjustments.  They have now gone with something completely different and have not tested the numbers at all.  They are using someone else's system that may or may not work.   How can you vote something in when not a single person has run the results of last year and seen if it was a good idea.  This might work better or it might not.  Just like Gadsden getting into the playoffs the fhsaa lets it come down to a coin flip. Flip a coin it may or may not work.   They have no idea. 

I still think that the point system could have been effective with a few simple tweaks

 

 

It's the fhsaa fault for allowing a situation that a frekin coin toss came before overall record yet they made the point system out as a scapegoat because they didn't prepare for a situation like Gadsden County potentially arising 

 

The main issues with the point system (many losing teams making playoffs just for playing a better schedule than others) could have been fixed by increasing the region sizes or maybe just having 2 regions instead of 4 in the small classes

 

Both of the above would have been simple fixes that could have been done this year in the cycle instead of rushing a system out there now without even looking at how it would look/be better than the point system

 

As least with the point system it was discussed for months and we saw several demos for the point system so we could get a feel how it would look compared to runner up system but this RPI system is so damn complex that we will have to wait till fhsaa tells us each week where a team stands in the damn playoffs

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50 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

As least with the point system it was discussed for months and we saw several demos for the point system so we could get a feel how it would look compared to runner up system but this RPI system is so damn complex that we will have to wait till fhsaa tells us each week where a team stands in the damn playoffs

the first year yes they ran some number but not the second year.  They made changes to the point system the second year and did not test the numbers.  This new system is a crap shoot.  

if they forced the teams in the lower classes to play a certain number of teams in their region it would have also helped.  Without playing common opponents you are comparing apples to rocks.  it's not even close to being the same.

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Everyone, 

I have the numbers sitting here, just have to type it out over the next day or so, but it will give you all an idea of what things would have looked like. Situations you all mentioned would have never happens under this and the right teams would have been in as well as the teams that should have been in that didn’t make it. RPI is used in many other states (Iowa, Colorado, Washington [Basketball for now] .... just to name a few). The system make sense. Grant it there is a lot of math here but at the end of the day no 8-2 team will be sitting at home under this formula (Chamberlain, Sanford Seminole). The FHSAA has moved into the 21st Century here and it is going to show this season just how nicely it will work. 

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59 minutes ago, Joshua Wilson said:

Everyone, 

I have the numbers sitting here, just have to type it out over the next day or so, but it will give you all an idea of what things would have looked like. Situations you all mentioned would have never happens under this and the right teams would have been in as well as the teams that should have been in that didn’t make it. RPI is used in many other states (Iowa, Colorado, Washington [Basketball for now] .... just to name a few). The system make sense. Grant it there is a lot of math here but at the end of the day no 8-2 team will be sitting at home under this formula (Chamberlain, Sanford Seminole). The FHSAA has moved into the 21st Century here and it is going to show this season just how nicely it will work. 

Josh the biggest issues we saw are because the regions are too small in the small classifications

 

You have regions ranging from 9-12 teams and 6 already guaranteed a trip to playoffs 

 

That's 50-66% of teams

 

You are still going to have some very weak teams making the playoffs until they make those regions larger and if districts are gone there is no reason they couldn't go to 2 regions instead of 4

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13 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Josh the biggest issues we saw are because the regions are too small in the small classifications

 

You have regions ranging from 9-12 teams and 6 already guaranteed a trip to playoffs 

 

That's 50-66% of teams

 

You are still going to have some very weak teams making the playoffs until they make those regions larger and if districts are gone there is no reason they couldn't go to 2 regions instead of 4

That requires a change in the policies and that is a two-year process. My understanding is that football will likely go to 7 classes starting in 2021. 

However, looking at the regions we got now, it will be tougher for a bad Rutheford team to make the playoffs in 4A-Region 1 with Bolles now back in Class 4A for example. Same goes with Region 1 in Class 3A with Trinity Christian back in that classification. It is going to balance out. 

Also, the other problem we had is that we had not had a full reclassification in four years until just now, so now with teams in their proper classification that will also help as well. 

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45 minutes ago, Joshua Wilson said:

That requires a change in the policies and that is a two-year process. My understanding is that football will likely go to 7 classes starting in 2021. 

However, looking at the regions we got now, it will be tougher for a bad Rutheford team to make the playoffs in 4A-Region 1 with Bolles now back in Class 4A for example. Same goes with Region 1 in Class 3A with Trinity Christian back in that classification. It is going to balance out. 

Also, the other problem we had is that we had not had a full reclassification in four years until just now, so now with teams in their proper classification that will also help as well. 

Bolles is just replacing Raines in that region and Raines is a much better team than Bolles is at this point

 

 

7 classes may be a smart idea honestly and should have been done sooner

 

 

What I do not like is the sneaky route they took with this system, they rushed it out there as a last minute addition without showing even one projection for how it could look and then they expect us to just trust this system is better with no real evidence to back it up

 

I don't care how it did in some non power state like Iowa, they need to show how this system puts better teams in than the point system and they have yet to show anything that sells me on that

 

 

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Just now, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Bolles is just replacing Raines in that region and Raines is a much better team than Bolles is at this point

 

 

7 classes may be a smart idea honestly and should have been done sooner

 

 

What I do not like is the sneaky route they took with this system, they rushed it out there as a last minute addition without showing even one projection for how it could look and then they expect us to just trust this 

It was not sneaky. It was put through the committees and I was at each of these meetings and discussed at length. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 12:35 PM, Joshua Wilson said:

It was not sneaky. It was put through the committees and I was at each of these meetings and discussed at length. 

were the numbers run on all the teams from last year and shown at these meetings?  

 

Last year adding 10 points for losing was a stupid idea that someone thought would fix the BTW issue and it just created more problems.

 

Sorry most of us don't have a lot of faith.  Maybe they got it right.   I commend Beasley for changing.  It is for the better.  It shouldn't have taken 3 tries or maybe more.

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1 hour ago, badbird said:

were the numbers run on all the teams from last year and shown at these meetings?  

Last year adding 10 points for losing was a stupid idea that someone thought would fix the BTW issue and it just created more problems.

Sorry most of us don't have a lot of faith.  Maybe they got it right.   I commend Beasley for changing.  It is for the better.  It shouldn't have taken 3 tries or maybe more.

This... one hundred times this. Again, FHSAA makes changes without running the numbers (one of the things I was impressed with was the original proposal regarding other sports and the creation of classes, was that they actually showed the numbers). Of course, this led to the backlash that we witnessed. So based on the previous few runs, if the FHSAA wants to get things done, they have to not show the numbers because then people would complain before the system is put in place.

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On 1/28/2019 at 9:18 PM, Joshua Wilson said:

Everyone, 

I have the numbers sitting here, just have to type it out over the next day or so, but it will give you all an idea of what things would have looked like. Situations you all mentioned would have never happens under this and the right teams would have been in as well as the teams that should have been in that didn’t make it. RPI is used in many other states (Iowa, Colorado, Washington [Basketball for now] .... just to name a few). The system make sense. Grant it there is a lot of math here but at the end of the day no 8-2 team will be sitting at home under this formula (Chamberlain, Sanford Seminole). The FHSAA has moved into the 21st Century here and it is going to show this season just how nicely it will work. 

still waiting on seeing these numbers...

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7 hours ago, Perspective said:

Looks like New Jersey just came out with their version of an RPI:

https://usatodayhss.com/2019/nj-football-coaches-get-look-at-new-transparent-power-ranking-formula

The important part of that story is buried at the end.

"In New Jersey, nearly 1,700 fewer players participated in football in 2017 than in 2016, according to the National Federation of High School Associations’ annual participation survey. The decline of nearly 7 percent dropped New Jersey’s total number of participants to 23,034, the lowest since the state had 24,144 football players in 2003."

This has to be concerning overall for all of football and all sports actually. Professional team owners, professional athletes, coaches, communities have to do more to make kids interested in football/sports as a whole. If they don't, the sport will die. (See baseball). 

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