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FHSAA Power Rankings


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2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

RPI or MaxPreps are both mathematical formulas that aren't perfect.  I have seen teams with a higher RPI than that of a team that beat them thus raising questions of validity.  I thought gate receipts for playoffs was split between the two participating teams though I am not a rule expert and maybe someone can confirm or refute this.  If that is the case your financial angle is non-existent.  

I can guarantee you if the game is in Lake City instead of Gene Cox in Tallahassee you get a better gate in Lake City because Lincoln doesn't have as hardcore a fanbase considering the last 3 times Columbia went to Lincoln in the playoffs Columbia had more fans than Lincoln

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1 hour ago, badbird said:

I agree with this but the way they come up with the seeding sucks and they won't even tell you how they came up with it.  Shady as F@@@.

If someone can come up with a system that does the two things I listed still then I'm open to hearing ideas but I don't want either aspect going backwards

 

As long as we have wild cards instead of runner ups guaranteed and have playoff seeding then I'm open to any idea they can do to change it and make it better 

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2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

RPI or MaxPreps are both mathematical formulas that aren't perfect.  I have seen teams with a higher RPI than that of a team that beat them thus raising questions of validity.  I thought gate receipts for playoffs was split between the two participating teams though I am not a rule expert and maybe someone can confirm or refute this.  If that is the case your financial angle is non-existent.  

Yes but at least RPI isn't influenced by the previous season

 

Isn't that one of the biggest complaints that people had with the point system that was used prior to RPI? 

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The biggest issue I have with MaxPreps is they use the previous season rankings as a start point so last year results will allow some teams who could finish with similar resumes and records but the team with higher start point will be convincingly ahead in the seeding

 

It should be on the current season only 

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45 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

The biggest issue I have with MaxPreps is they use the previous season rankings as a start point so last year results will allow some teams who could finish with similar resumes and records but the team with higher start point will be convincingly ahead in the seeding

 

It should be on the current season only 

my understanding is the starting ranking is gone by the end of the season.  All computers have to have a starting point and as the season goes along that starting point means less.  If Laz was here he could explain better.

I would have been ok using Pinkos ratings.  I feel out of all computer rankings his were the best.  Sadly there is no perfect or fair system.  

 

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16 minutes ago, badbird said:

my understanding is the starting ranking is gone by the end of the season.  All computers have to have a starting point and as the season goes along that starting point means less.  If Laz was here he could explain better.

I would have been ok using Pinkos ratings.  I feel out of all computer rankings his were the best.  Sadly there is no perfect or fair system.  

 

Yeah but even if the starting point is gone by the end isn't a team with a significantly higher starting point still gonna have an advantage especially if they go undefeated?

 

I definitely was okay with pinkos rankings RIP pinkos, overall I think while there's not a perfect system I still wish there was one where we actually knew what went into it and have one that isn't directly influenced by past seasons 

 

Also as @gatorman-ufpointed out the fact that University School who didn't even play last year finished top 25 I'm not buying that previous seasons get completely removed by the end 

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1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I can guarantee you if the game is in Lake City instead of Gene Cox in Tallahassee you get a better gate in Lake City because Lincoln doesn't have as hardcore a fanbase considering the last 3 times Columbia went to Lincoln in the playoffs Columbia had more fans than Lincoln

And I could make just to opposite argument when you compare the fan base at Lakeland as opposed to ours.  Financially we would be better off traveling.  Anyone can find a counter example.  Don't get me wrong, we would prefer to stay home as we have had more success against them at our place than at theirs.  Trying to sell people in a formula they have no faith in is difficult as perception will trump reality. 

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37 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

And I could make just to opposite argument when you compare the fan base at Lakeland as opposed to ours.  Financially we would be better off traveling.  Anyone can find a counter example.  Don't get me wrong, we would prefer to stay home as we have had more success against them at our place than at theirs.  Trying to sell people in a formula they have no faith in is difficult as perception will trump reality. 

Perhaps but in what logic would a 4-6 team hosting a 9-1 team make any sense if both won district

 

Heck the 9-1 team (Columbia) actually was undefeated in their district in 2015 yet still had to travel to Lincoln who only got in on a shootout in a 3 team district while being 4-6 and Columbia already beating Lincoln in Tallahassee that season 

 

That's the type of stuff that happened in the flip every year system 

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7 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

RPI or MaxPreps are both mathematical formulas that aren't perfect.  I have seen teams with a higher RPI than that of a team that beat them thus raising questions of validity.  I thought gate receipts for playoffs was split between the two participating teams though I am not a rule expert and maybe someone can confirm or refute this.  If that is the case your financial angle is non-existent.  

Maxpreps proprietary formula is orders of magnitude better than the simple RPI formula that was in place.  However, taking away margin of victory for the FSHAA rankings degrades the accuracy to the point of is it any better than the previous RPI?  I suppose we will see.  The problem I had with the RPI was it ended up being regionalized vs properly relating the relative strength of teams in different regions which is what maxpreps does.  Thus a weak region would get more teams in the playoffs than a strong region but all those weak teams would get bounced in round 1.  I have a great example in 5A from last year.

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1 hour ago, PinellasFB said:

Maxpreps proprietary formula is orders of magnitude better than the simple RPI formula that was in place.  However, taking away margin of victory for the FSHAA rankings degrades the accuracy to the point of is it any better than the previous RPI?  I suppose we will see.  The problem I had with the RPI was it ended up being regionalized vs properly relating the relative strength of teams in different regions which is what maxpreps does.  Thus a weak region would get more teams in the playoffs than a strong region but all those weak teams would get bounced in round 1.  I have a great example in 5A from last year.

Can you explain how it is better specifically?

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3 hours ago, Dr. D said:

For those that are interested, the FHSAA Power Rankings are up on the FHSAA website:  Football Rankings - Florida High School Athletic Association (fhsaa.com)

I know it's the first rankings but I'm flabbergasted. The placement of these teams in the top 150 is mindblowing. Even the top 10 with University Christian at #3 and Bradford at #10. 

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Eau Gallie

 

-1.67 SOS

 

6th overall in 3S and 42nd in ALL of Florida

 

 

Lake Wales has a SOS of 2.23 and is #1 in 3S and 17th in Florida

 

Pine Forest SOS -0.12 ranked 26th in Florida and #2 in 3S

 

 

These just a few I saw at quick glance but the trend here is problematic

 

Teams that schedule light and go undefeated are rewarded more than teams who play tough schedules and drop a few games 

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On 9/23/2022 at 8:56 AM, Ray Icaza said:

RPI or MaxPreps are both mathematical formulas that aren't perfect.  I have seen teams with a higher RPI than that of a team that beat them thus raising questions of validity.  I thought gate receipts for playoffs was split between the two participating teams though I am not a rule expert and maybe someone can confirm or refute this.  If that is the case your financial angle is non-existent.  

The comment I made a few days ago is close and personal now.  Maybe over time it will correct, but right out of the box Rockledge has a significantly higher power ranking than us even though we just got done dominating them.  That never makes sense, thus questioning the validity of this system.  

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1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

I hate using MaxPreps, but the solution for this is simply to wait until week 8 to start releasing these rankings. Until then there is too much volatility in these rankings. Also MaxPreps should release their formula so it can be double checked. 

Some the numbers aren't even the same like with the SOS I saw a few teams with a different SOS on MaxPreps than what is on FHSAA rankings 

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5 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Some the numbers aren't even the same like with the SOS I saw a few teams with a different SOS on MaxPreps than what is on FHSAA rankings 

Remember it is two different formulas though. So how MaxPreps calculates SOS for their website might be different than how they calculate it for FHSAA. Additionally, if there were any Monday night games that might screw with it as well. I have no belief in MaxPreps, but I do know that these formulas only get better once the whole season is played (the same as the RPI formula previously). Additionally, any fan or coach paying attention to these rankings this early is kidding themselves. Way too much can change in two games. Week 8 after 7 games, you should see some normality.

Let me get specific on why I don't trust MaxPreps not including margin of victory in their calculations. 
Bradford is the #10 ranked team in the state. They are 4-0, but their opponents are 4-1, 1-4, 2-1, and 2-2. (4-0, 1-3, 2-0, and 2-1, if we aren't counting Bradford's win over them) Not a murder's row of opponents at this point. They have only given up 7 points all season and won their games by several touchdowns. Could Bradford be a state title contender, sure! But they have the 108th "hardest" schedule. 

While some of you hated the RPI (still don't understand why considering RPI is often used in determining the field of 68 in NCAA basketball), at least it was to be replicated and was open sourced.

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1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

Remember it is two different formulas though. So how MaxPreps calculates SOS for their website might be different than how they calculate it for FHSAA. Additionally, if there were any Monday night games that might screw with it as well. I have no belief in MaxPreps, but I do know that these formulas only get better once the whole season is played (the same as the RPI formula previously). Additionally, any fan or coach paying attention to these rankings this early is kidding themselves. Way too much can change in two games. Week 8 after 7 games, you should see some normality.

Let me get specific on why I don't trust MaxPreps not including margin of victory in their calculations. 
Bradford is the #10 ranked team in the state. They are 4-0, but their opponents are 4-1, 1-4, 2-1, and 2-2. (4-0, 1-3, 2-0, and 2-1, if we aren't counting Bradford's win over them) Not a murder's row of opponents at this point. They have only given up 7 points all season and won their games by several touchdowns. Could Bradford be a state title contender, sure! But they have the 108th "hardest" schedule. 

While some of you hated the RPI (still don't understand why considering RPI is often used in determining the field of 68 in NCAA basketball), at least it was to be replicated and was open sourced.

I felt RPI system was fine 

 

The issue was how the regions were set up and most regions were too small 

 

 

Bradford is decent but with the MaxPreps formula being so based on SOS I'm surprised to see so many teams with relatively weak schedules so high in the initial rankings 

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Still not understanding this.  Seems team’s being undefeated playing bottom teams and those bottom teams have 1 lost from playing other bottom teams are still getting high SOS.  No different than the point system a few years back.  There’s a team in 1R that’s hasn’t played a team ranked over 400 on the MaxPreps ranking and they are top 3 in the power ranking.  

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