Buchholz is now the clear favorite in 4S.

[Longtime Observer]

They may (or may not) be the best team in 4S. BUT, it is clear they will have the FHSAA ratings on their side, such that they will play each of the first four rounds at home. With Venice and Lakeland all but certain to play each of rounds 2-4 on the road, there's a good chance one may be tripped up by someone like Treasure Coast (would be a home game for TC) while the other will end up traveling up to Gainesville to play Buchholz. And I think both have enough shortcomings to be upset on the road in that game. This means Buchholz may well get someone else (like TC) who has traveled much further for the title game in Tallahassee. This is probably very popular at the FHSAA offices in (checks notes) Gainesville. 

[gatorman-uf]

Too early to tell anything about these rankings... rankings shouldn't be released until like week 8 at the earliest (for college football as well). 

But Buchholz has been the dominant program in the area for a while now, not sure if they can take the next step from a very good regional area team to 1 of 3 or 4 teams that you would pencil into the state championship.

As for the accusation that the FHSAA would be overjoyed by this, I doubt it. My bet is that the FHSAA would Niceville vs Lakeland (maybe Vero Beach) in Tallahassee if they are going for attendance in 4S, IMO

[Longtime Observer]

I didn't really mean to imply any sort of conspiracy about the FHSAA. Though I sort of assume there is general disdain for the major powers who compile a lot of transfers...

[Jullian]

There is no clear leader in 4s. Buchholtz, Venice, the dreads, Bartow, Kiss Osceola, Bartram Trail, Niceville, Deland, Ponte Vedra, Manatee……Anyone of these teams could beat one another on any given night???? Just my opinion….

[Longtime Observer]

3 hours ago, Jullian said:

There is no clear leader in 4s. Buchholtz, Venice, the dreads, Bartow, Kiss Osceola, Bartram Trail, Niceville, Deland, Ponte Vedra, Manatee……Anyone of these teams could beat one another on any given night???? Just my opinion….

The difference is I'm working under the assumption that Buchholz will have the home field advantage for all of those potential games, whereas you don't seem to consider that. While it's true that we don't yet know for sure how the final seedings will look, it seems a very good bet Buchholz will be ranked ahead of all of the other teams in 4S. All you mention have or figure to have a loss, with the possible excpetion of University City which you didn't mention. 

I like Lakeland or Venice vs. Buchholz in either a home game or a neutral site game. But, on the road in Gainesville, where those teams will still be perceived as favorites and thus will get screwed by the officials, Buchholz will win IMO.

[DarterBlue2]

3 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

The difference is I'm working under the assumption that Buchholz will have the home field advantage for all of those potential games, whereas you don't seem to consider that. While it's true that we don't yet know for sure how the final seedings will look, it seems a very good bet Buchholz will be ranked ahead of all of the other teams in 4S. All you mention have or figure to have a loss, with the possible excpetion of University City which you didn't mention. 

I like Lakeland or Venice vs. Buchholz in either a home game or a neutral site game. But, on the road in Gainesville, where those teams will still be perceived as favorites and thus will get screwed by the officials, Buchholz will win IMO.

A true championship will find a way to win regardless of where the game is played. In 2014, Apopka, going into the playoffs with a 6-4 record, played its first three games on the road, including a trip to Jacksonville. It did not matter, they won them all. If Lakeland is destined to be a champion this year they will overcome the handicap if, indeed, there is one at the end of the regular season. 

It's almost as if you doubt that your team has it in them to win under adversity. If that is the message conveyed to the kids, guess what? That's right, they won't win. 

[Cat_Scratch2]

20 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

Too early to tell anything about these rankings... rankings shouldn't be released until like week 8 at the earliest (for college football as well). 

But Buchholz has been the dominant program in the area for a while now, not sure if they can take the next step from a very good regional area team to 1 of 3 or 4 teams that you would pencil into the state championship.

As for the accusation that the FHSAA would be overjoyed by this, I doubt it. My bet is that the FHSAA would Niceville vs Lakeland (maybe Vero Beach) in Tallahassee if they are going for attendance in 4S, IMO

Buchholz prolly going to tally from the north side. Really though, it is up to every team and coach to to win the game. Can't let the road woes get to your team before the game even starts. Have to go into their house like you're the landlords and jack up the rent. 

[Longtime Observer]

19 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

A true championship will find a way to win regardless of where the game is played. In 2014, Apopka, going into the playoffs with a 6-4 record, played its first three games on the road, including a trip to Jacksonville. It did not matter, they won them all. If Lakeland is destined to be a champion this year they will overcome the handicap if, indeed, there is one at the end of the regular season. 

It's almost as if you doubt that your team has it in them to win under adversity. If that is the message conveyed to the kids, guess what? That's right, they won't win. 

Yes, a team that is head and shoulders above all others will manage to win whether at home or on the road. If the difference isn't as pronounced, home field advantage makes a difference. That's fine (assuming the team with the advantage has done something to deserve it over the others). I think it's generally silly to think home field advantage doesn't make any difference. 

This year's Lakeland team isn't as good as last year's team. If they happen to be the best in 4S, it's by a small margin. Small enough that playing on the road-particularly when perceived as the favorite like they will be- figures to make the difference. My hunch is that losing the two games-albeit against excellent teams- may have altered the team's psyche. Hope I'm wrong.

[Cat_Scratch2]

14 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

Yes, a team that is head and shoulders above all others will manage to win whether at home or on the road. If the difference isn't as pronounced, home field advantage makes a difference. That's fine (assuming the team with the advantage has done something to deserve it over the others). I think it's generally silly to think home field advantage doesn't make any difference. 

This year's Lakeland team isn't as good as last year's team. If they happen to be the best in 4S, it's by a small margin. Small enough that playing on the road-particularly when perceived as the favorite like they will be- figures to make the difference. My hunch is that losing the two games-albeit against excellent teams- may have altered the team's psyche. Hope I'm wrong.

Lakeland is tough enough... Like I said before, 4S is a tough class. If they make it to Tally, they earned it.

[DarterBlue2]

22 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

Yes, a team that is head and shoulders above all others will manage to win whether at home or on the road. If the difference isn't as pronounced, home field advantage makes a difference. That's fine (assuming the team with the advantage has done something to deserve it over the others). I think it's generally silly to think home field advantage doesn't make any difference. 

This year's Lakeland team isn't as good as last year's team. If they happen to be the best in 4S, it's by a small margin. Small enough that playing on the road-particularly when perceived as the favorite like they will be- figures to make the difference. My hunch is that losing the two games-albeit against excellent teams- may have altered the team's psyche. Hope I'm wrong.

My point was that through the regular season, Apopka did not play like a team that was the best in 8A. Yes, one of the losses was to American Heritage Plantation by a small margin and that team went on to win a state title by a dominant amount. But they also lost, convincingly, to West Orange during the regular season. And they lost on the final play of the game to a good, but not state caliber Edgewater in the final regular season game. In short, none but the most rabid Apopka faithful would have thought they were going to win a state championship. Even though a lot of talent was on the roster, the team was not playing like a championship team. 

Lakeland most certainly has not sunk to the nadir Apopka sunk to in 2014. Well, guess what? The playoffs came and the team woke up. They drilled West Orange 42-0 in the second round then went on the road and beat a very loaded First Coast team 64-48 at their place. 

Lakeland was in the game almost to the end of both their losses. The talent is clearly there. If the kids and the staff really want to win it all, they can if they have right attitude. There is only so much advantage home field confers. And most officiating crews, even if they have a bias towards the home team, don't systematically "steal" the game for the home team. I hope that Lakeland's staff is not sowing the seeds of doubt in the players the way you are on this message board. For if they are, there season will most certainly end sometime during the playoffs. From what I have seen of them so far, it  does not have to be their destiny to exit early.  

[Vero Indian]

11 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:

My point was that through the regular season, Apopka did not play like a team that was the best in 8A. Yes, one of the losses was to American Heritage Plantation by a small margin and that team went on to win a state title by a dominant amount. But they also lost, convincingly, to West Orange during the regular season. And they lost on the final play of the game to a good, but not state caliber Edgewater in the final regular season game. In short, none but the most rabid Apopka faithful would have thought they were going to win a state championship. Even though a lot of talent was on the roster, the team was not playing like a championship team. 

Lakeland most certainly has not sunk to the nadir Apopka sunk to in 2014. Well, guess what? The playoffs came and the team woke up. They drilled West Orange 42-0 in the second round then went on the road and beat a very loaded First Coast team 64-48 at their place. 

Lakeland was in the game almost to the end of both their losses. The talent is clearly there. If the kids and the staff really want to win it all, they can if they have right attitude. There is only so much advantage home field confers. And most officiating crews, even if they have a bias towards the home team, don't systematically "steal" the game for the home team. I hope that Lakeland's staff is not sowing the seeds of doubt in the players the way you are on this message board. For if they are, there season will most certainly end sometime during the playoffs. From what I have seen of them so far, it  does not have to be their destiny to exit early.  

One of the best turnarounds in a season along with Miami Northwestern in 2018

[nolebull813]

Is there any way to get rid of the FHSAA? What steps need to happen? 

[Dr. D]

Since it is now effectively under the control of the state legislature and the governor, you would have to start with them. 

[VeniceIndianFan]

15 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

Yes, a team that is head and shoulders above all others will manage to win whether at home or on the road. If the difference isn't as pronounced, home field advantage makes a difference. That's fine (assuming the team with the advantage has done something to deserve it over the others). I think it's generally silly to think home field advantage doesn't make any difference. 

This year's Lakeland team isn't as good as last year's team. If they happen to be the best in 4S, it's by a small margin. Small enough that playing on the road-particularly when perceived as the favorite like they will be- figures to make the difference. My hunch is that losing the two games-albeit against excellent teams- may have altered the team's psyche. Hope I'm wrong.

My question is, if Manatee makes it to round 4 and their opponent happens to be Buccholz, where would they play? For the sake of argument, let's assume that they both go into that game undefeated. Does strength of schedule only then become a factor? Does the record of their opponents, or even the records of the opponents of their opponents, come into play? What if Manatee beats Venice and goes undefeated, and Buccholz finishes with 1 loss on the regular season, but because Venice lost 3 regular season games and Buccholz' 1 loss was to a "superior opponent," they get home field anyway? My head hurts thinking about all of this, LOL. But this lack of transparency is nauseating and really harms the credibility of the FHSAA, however much of that remains. 

[Dr. D]

For the sake of argument, if Manatee and Buchholz both go undefeated, then strength of schedule would be the deciding variable for seeding purposes.  At this point, Buchholz has had the stronger schedule to date, and likely will have the higher strength of schedule rating based on opponents for the rest of the season.

But remember that the 4 remaining teams are re-seeded after the regional finals, so #1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3.  So as long as you are one of the 2 highest ranked teams after the regional finals, you will host a state semifinal, with the state final in Tallahassee.

My conclusion is that an 8-2 (or worse) team can never overcome a 10-0 for the #1 overall seed, regardless of their respective strength of schedules.  A 9-1 team could conceivably overcome a 10-0 team for the overall #1 seed with a significant enough differential in their strength of schedules (although it did not happen last year in the 8 classifications where that was possible). 

So your best bet is going undefeated and hope everyone else loses at least one game.  The computer does not care that Venice or Lakeland are really good teams, it looks objectively at the fact that they lost multiple games.

And transparency would be wonderful. 

[gatorman-uf]

2 hours ago, nolebull813 said:

Is there any way to get rid of the FHSAA? What steps need to happen? 

The quote is a somewhat serious question that probably should be it's own thread.
BUT below is from state statutes
""The Florida High School Athletic Association (FHSAA) is designated as a governing nonprofit organization of athletics in Florida public schools. If the FHSAA fails to comply with this section, the commissioner must designate a nonprofit organization to govern athletics with the approval of the State Board of Education. The FHSAA is not a state agency as defined in s. 120.52. The FHSAA is subject to s. 1006.19. . . . .Any high school in this state, including charter schools, virtual schools, and home education cooperatives, may become a member of the FHSAA and participate in the activities of the FHSAA; however, membership in the FHSAA is not mandatory for any school."

So as I read the first sentence, it says the FHSAA will be "a" governing body of public schools, not the.
Additionally, the last sentence says "membership in the FHSAA is not mandatory for any school." So in theory, couldn't schools be members of the FHSAA, but choose to remain independent inside the FHSAA, and then turn around and create a different high school sports association. Similar to what the SSAC has done, but do it for the entire state, and thus remove state meddling? Right, the SSAC has no influence from the Board of Education, it has public schools (who are also FHSAA members).

Probably not what you meant, but couldn't that work as almost a protest against state interference. 

[Perspective]

24 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

The quote is a somewhat serious question that probably should be it's own thread.
BUT below is from state statutes
""The Florida High School Athletic Association (FHSAA) is designated as a governing nonprofit organization of athletics in Florida public schools. If the FHSAA fails to comply with this section, the commissioner must designate a nonprofit organization to govern athletics with the approval of the State Board of Education. The FHSAA is not a state agency as defined in s. 120.52. The FHSAA is subject to s. 1006.19. . . . .Any high school in this state, including charter schools, virtual schools, and home education cooperatives, may become a member of the FHSAA and participate in the activities of the FHSAA; however, membership in the FHSAA is not mandatory for any school."

So as I read the first sentence, it says the FHSAA will be "a" governing body of public schools, not the.
Additionally, the last sentence says "membership in the FHSAA is not mandatory for any school." So in theory, couldn't schools be members of the FHSAA, but choose to remain independent inside the FHSAA, and then turn around and create a different high school sports association. Similar to what the SSAC has done, but do it for the entire state, and thus remove state meddling? Right, the SSAC has no influence from the Board of Education, it has public schools (who are also FHSAA members).

Probably not what you meant, but couldn't that work as almost a protest against state interference. 

I'll avoid (at least for now) the temptation to address the political side of such a plan and instead ask this question:  if you were setting up a new high school sports association, how would it be different than the FHSAA?  In other words, what would you change?   (Open question to all).

[nolebull813]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

I'll avoid (at least for now) the temptation to address the political side of such a plan and instead ask this question:  if you were setting up a new high school sports association, how would it be different than the FHSAA?  In other words, what would you change?   (Open question to all).

I would consolidate the classes to make the playoffs more competitive. 
 

I would allow each team to keep the money they earn through fan support. (Minus the dues to operate an association)

I would create a developmental division for teams that finish a 2 year cycle with a .250 winning percentage or worse. They would have to go independent, play in the developmental league, or go 8-man. For at least the next 2 year cycle.

I would have the state titles in a rural county for the rural class, suburbs for that class and so on 

Actually I would consolidate the rural class with 1S. And only have 3 suburban classes and 3 metro classes. 6 total for the state 

They’re about 500 teams in the FHSAA districts. 500|6 classes equals 83 teams per class. Which equals 5-6 teams for the 16 districts. District winners and runner up makes the playoffs. 
 

I would allocate money from parking, gate sales and concession to be given to the head coach and assistant coaches to compensate them for their time. 
 

I would politic the state to recognize sports as a “physical education” class to receive high school credit for, with the hope that the coaches could be payed a teacher salary just for coaching. The pro rate would be relative to the amount of kids typically attend in a PE class, and factor in how many hours coaches spend practicing and game days. 

 

 

[Perspective]

1 hour ago, nolebull813 said:

I would consolidate the classes to make the playoffs more competitive. 
 

I would allow each team to keep the money they earn through fan support. (Minus the dues to operate an association)

I would create a developmental division for teams that finish a 2 year cycle with a .250 winning percentage or worse. They would have to go independent, play in the developmental league, or go 8-man. For at least the next 2 year cycle.

I would have the state titles in a rural county for the rural class, suburbs for that class and so on 

Actually I would consolidate the rural class with 1S. And only have 3 suburban classes and 3 metro classes. 6 total for the state 

They’re about 500 teams in the FHSAA districts. 500|6 classes equals 83 teams per class. Which equals 5-6 teams for the 16 districts. District winners and runner up makes the playoffs. 
 

I would allocate money from parking, gate sales and concession to be given to the head coach and assistant coaches to compensate them for their time. 
 

I would politic the state to recognize sports as a “physical education” class to receive high school credit for, with the hope that the coaches could be payed a teacher salary just for coaching. The pro rate would be relative to the amount of kids typically attend in a PE class, and factor in how many hours coaches spend practicing and game days. 

 

 

Great start, NoleBull.   Clearly, you're assuming close to 100% participation in your start-up association, but I'm a fan of such optimism.  

What's your stand on recruiting and transfers? 

[nolebull813]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

Great start, NoleBull.   Clearly, you're assuming close to 100% participation in your start-up association, but I'm a fan of such optimism.  

What's your stand on recruiting and transfers? 

No actual recruiting obviously but I would propose maybe if you have 8 football transfers or more then you have to compete in an open division at the end of the year. Problem with that is all those teams would probably be good, so it would water down the other 6 classes. 

[nolebull813]

2 hours ago, Perspective said:

Great start, NoleBull.   Clearly, you're assuming close to 100% participation in your start-up association, but I'm a fan of such optimism.  

What's your stand on recruiting and transfers? 

I would prefer the bad teams not participate. Lol. Have like a FBS/FCS type format for the haves and have nots 

[Longtime Observer]

Some more information became available on Lakeland tonight. First, the back story. Last week, shorty after starting RB Rucker was carted off and taken to the hospital in the 1st quarter, QB Smith fell on a fumble and appeared to suffer an arm or shoulder injury. He did not return to that game. Word after the game- this is not first hand and may be wrong- was that he may not have been that hurt that badly but declined to return to the game. There was some chatter that the head ball coach was miffed with his attitude for some reason. This led me to be concerned about the leadership (or lack thereof) at the QB position. If there's a problem there, it's obviously a serious problem for the team.

Word was he was back and healthy for this week. But, tonight, the backup QB got the start. And he played all of the nearly three quarters before the game was called due to lightning. BUT, QB Smith was on the field to hold for extra points. This strongly suggests he was benched. And, it is plenty obvious that such a benching was not because the backup is any good. He's trying his best, and that's commendable. But, he's not a QB: Lakeland ran wildcat on 4th and 10 at one point, and had a WR throw the only TD pass. So, if the coach, and/or the team, has lost confidence or faith in the only true QB on the roster, you can probably put a fork in Lakeland (won 21-0 at Lake Gibson in a lightning-shortened game).

Some caveats:

- This is a new age of social media, where, in the past, things that happened and stayed in the locker room now end up public. It's possible drama is being made over something which could be squashed relatively quickly and easily.

- These are high school kids. They are much more likely to be able to learn valuable lessons and turn things around quickly than old bastards like ourselves. Maybe this sparks a fire under Smith, and he goes on to a great rest of the season.

- Again, this is all second and third-hand, except for the fact that QB Smith took no snaps as QB, but held on extra points.

[gatorman-uf]

8 hours ago, Perspective said:

I'll avoid (at least for now) the temptation to address the political side of such a plan and instead ask this question:  if you were setting up a new high school sports association, how would it be different than the FHSAA?  In other words, what would you change?   (Open question to all).

I would change to a promotion/relegation system for all team sports based on the previous 4 years of MaxPreps rankings. 
Top 32 in 7A - no districts, all teams make playoffs, required to schedule 70% against other 7A teams
Next 32 in 6A - no districts, all teams make playoffs, required to schedule 70% against other 6A teams
Next 64 in 5A - 8 districts of 8 teams, 32 teams in the playoffs (District Champs and Wildcards based on North/South)
Next 64 in 4A - 8 districts of 8 teams, 32 teams in the playoffs (District Champs and Wildcards based on North/South)
Next 128 in 3A - 16 districts of 8 teams, 32 teams in the playoffs (District Champs and Wildcards based on North/South)
Next 128 in 2A - 16 districts of 8 teams, 32 teams in the playoffs (District Champs and Wildcards based on North/South)
Rural Division (with a small caveat that the best rural schools will temporarily move up and switch with the worst "rural" school who just happens to be too big to Rural Division

If we need more classifications, they will be 128 team classes.

******************* 
Individual Sports (Swimming, Golf, Cross Country, Wrestling, Weightlifting, Track and Field)
- State would be divided up into areas based on geography. School size would not matter, best 4 athletes move on. There would be requires for Area, Super Areas, and maybe Super Super Area before the state championships.
- Individual Sports that have a team element (Track and Field) would be required to have athletes compete in all events. No longer can you win a state championship in Track because you have 2 athletes that enter 5 events each and are just better. You need depth and variety. So if your school only does hurdles, long jump, and triple jump, well you better start recruiting those hallways for a javelin throw an a kid who can run 3200m.
- Wrestling already does this, but weightlifting, swimming, and track would add it.

******************** 
Assuming I was wealthy enough to fund all this, I am providing travel and food reimbursement for any school (team sport) traveling over 2 hours for a mandatory game. If the trip requires an overnight stay, we are paying for the rooms for the limited roster. 

******************** 
Coaches caught actively recruiting are done in the state forever.
********************
Find a way to have a single location for all state championships. I know Orlando is centralized, but I want all sports state champions (baseball, football, basketball, etc) in one city. Some city that could use the financial boost, but also handle the rush. 
********************
Baseball playoffs would be 1 game a week until regional finals, which would be best of 3.
Additionally, regional finals games would be played at semi-neutral fields/courts where there would be several games of different classifications played at the same time.

[Longtime Observer]

11 hours ago, Dr. D said:

For the sake of argument, if Manatee and Buchholz both go undefeated, then strength of schedule would be the deciding variable for seeding purposes.  At this point, Buchholz has had the stronger schedule to date, and likely will have the higher strength of schedule rating based on opponents for the rest of the season.

But remember that the 4 remaining teams are re-seeded after the regional finals, so #1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3.  So as long as you are one of the 2 highest ranked teams after the regional finals, you will host a state semifinal, with the state final in Tallahassee.

My conclusion is that an 8-2 (or worse) team can never overcome a 10-0 for the #1 overall seed, regardless of their respective strength of schedules.  A 9-1 team could conceivably overcome a 10-0 team for the overall #1 seed with a significant enough differential in their strength of schedules (although it did not happen last year in the 8 classifications where that was possible). 

So your best bet is going undefeated and hope everyone else loses at least one game.  The computer does not care that Venice or Lakeland are really good teams, it looks objectively at the fact that they lost multiple games.

And transparency would be wonderful. 

A problem rarely talked about: "Strength of schedule", while obviously important in evaluating teams, is often poorly calculated.

[181pl]

The whole concept of 4S is "Laughable". Like Lakeland is unable to "compete" with 4M. What a complete joke. One team in 4M would be a slight favorite.