RPI is a joke

[badbird]

Look I know its fairly early but we are half way done with the season.  Any ranking that has Baker 6th in the state is a f$$$ing joke.  I think even Jessee might agree with me.  

 

Avante Garde 7th in the state.  WTF they might be one of the worst teams in the state.

Zepherhills 17

Florida Christian 18

Blountstown 22

Community School of Naples 30

 

 

 

[DarterBlue2]

20 minutes ago, badbird said:

Look I know its fairly early but we are half way done with the season.  Any ranking that has Baker 6th in the state is a f$$$ing joke.  I think even Jessee might agree with me.  

 

Avante Garde 7th in the state.  WTF they might be one of the worst teams in the state.

Zepherhills 17

Florida Christian 18

Blountstown 22

Community School of Naples 30

 

 

 

If those teams are all ahead of the Mighty Madison County, I am sure Jessee would agree with you!

[Ray Icaza]

19 minutes ago, badbird said:

Look I know its fairly early but we are half way done with the season.  Any ranking that has Baker 6th in the state is a f$$$ing joke.  I think even Jessee might agree with me.  

 

Avante Garde 7th in the state.  WTF they might be one of the worst teams in the state.

Zepherhills 17

Florida Christian 18

Blountstown 22

Community School of Naples 30

 

 

 

In 8A region 3, these RPI projections have Dr. Phillips as the only team from District 9 in the eight teams that make up the quarterfinals.  Most observers have either us or West Orange winning this district (9), but leaves both teams out.  Regardless of the final District 9 standings, both these teams should be in.  It is a big joke.

[SubZero]

Another one of the "smart" ideas done by the silly FHSAA. the RPI is not a bad idea, but how it's made up with the teams, and where they're ranked is a totally different story. 

[Ray Icaza]

22 minutes ago, SubZero said:

Another one of the "smart" ideas done by the silly FHSAA. the RPI is not a bad idea, but how it's made up with the teams, and where they're ranked is a totally different story. 

I know the formula is more complicated than this, but in a simplistic way if we are good and beat a bad team 50-0 for that one game do they get a higher RPI than us because they played a good team and us a bad?

[SubZero]

It really doesn't make sense. I thought bringing back wildcards did teams a favor. Guess not. 

[PinellasFB]

Mathematician here.  There are many different ways to calculate RPI.  The most elaborate ones involve using sophisticated statistical analysis and stat databases programmed in the R language.  Others could be as simple as someone's homegrown formula they've tweaked for many years until they get something that seems to work in a general sense.  I am curious where the Florida RPI formula lands on this spectrum.  I tried googling "florida hs football RPI formula" but it doesnt give me any info.  If the formula is a closely guarded secret then my guess is it lands closer to the home grown end than the sophisticated stats research end of the spectrum. 

Nearly all formulas have one thing in common:  they grow more accurate as more teams start playing common opponents and the initial strength weightings that are necessary at the beginning of the season lose their significance relative to actual data.  Always expect some wonky results until everybody has played common opponents and the "relative" part of relative power index can take hold.

[Ray Icaza]

1 hour ago, PinellasFB said:

Mathematician here.  There are many different ways to calculate RPI.  The most elaborate ones involve using sophisticated statistical analysis and stat databases programmed in the R language.  Others could be as simple as someone's homegrown formula they've tweaked for many years until they get something that seems to work in a general sense.  I am curious where the Florida RPI formula lands on this spectrum.  I tried googling "florida hs football RPI formula" but it doesnt give me any info.  If the formula is a closely guarded secret then my guess is it lands closer to the home grown end than the sophisticated stats research end of the spectrum. 

Nearly all formulas have one thing in common:  they grow more accurate as more teams start playing common opponents and the initial strength weightings that are necessary at the beginning of the season lose their significance relative to actual data.  Always expect some wonky results until everybody has played common opponents and the "relative" part of relative power index can take hold.

Thanks for that, but as I have said several times previously just win the district and you are in the playoffs.  What happens from the second round on with the RPI is unpredictable but if we are in someone still gonna have to beat us whether we are home or away.

[Perspective]

1 hour ago, PinellasFB said:

 I am curious where the Florida RPI formula lands on this spectrum.  I tried googling "florida hs football RPI formula" but it doesnt give me any info.  If the formula is a closely guarded secret then my guess is it lands closer to the home grown end than the sophisticated stats research end of the spectrum.

PinellasFB, Florida's RPI formula is no secret at all. 

Per Rule 4.7.4 of the FHSAA Football Sport Manual, the RPI Ranking Calculation for a particular team is calculated by adding together the following three components:  (1) that team's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .35), (2) that team's Opponent's Winning Percentage, [not including the game played against the team in question]* (also multiplied by .35), and (3) that team's Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .30).   

* The part in brackets is not part of the rule, but that's the way the FHSAA does it.  This explains why some teams' OWP was 1.000 a week or so ago. 

[PinellasFB]

42 minutes ago, Perspective said:

PinellasFB, Florida's RPI formula is no secret at all. 

Per Rule 4.7.4 of the FHSAA Football Sport Manual, the RPI Ranking Calculation for a particular team is calculated by adding together the following three components:  (1) that team's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .35), (2) that team's Opponent's Winning Percentage, [not including the game played against the team in question]* (also multiplied by .35), and (3) that team's Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .30).   

* The part in brackets is not part of the rule, but that's the way the FHSAA does it.  This explains why some teams' OWP was 1.000 a week or so ago. 

Okay, that's officially terrible lol.  A HS calculus student could come up with something better than that.  An undergraduate statistics major could certainly come up with a much more meaningful power index.  

edit typos

[Perspective]

7 minutes ago, PinellasFB said:

Okay, that's officially terrible lol.  A HS calculus student could come up with something better than that.  An undergraduate statistics major could certainly come up with a much more meaningful power index.  

edit typos

So, here's the thing, within each Region, the four district champs make the playoffs and then the four teams (regardless of district) with the highest RPI's also make it.  As a result, chances are you'll end up with the best 5 to 7 teams in the region plus one or two more "debatable" teams (and, like the NCAA basketball tournament every year, a couple of "debatable" teams will end up missing out, which then gives them the right to bitch and moan about the process for the next month).   But, because the district champs make it, there's a high likelihood that the best couple of teams within each region make the playoffs and battle for the a spot in the final four. 

Now, here's my biggest issue with the RPI: in addition to being used to select the four "best" non-district winning teams in each region, it's also used to determine home-field advantage for every playoff game up to the championship game.  In other words, the "officially terrible" formula determines whether a team gets a home playoff game or, alternatively, has to hop on a bus and travel 5-6 hours to play a game.  In the absence of a more sophisticated formula, I would rather see the FHSAA go back to a system where home field games are determined in advance based on a systematic rotational basis.    

[Ray Icaza]

5 minutes ago, Perspective said:

So, here's the thing, within each Region, the four district champs make the playoffs and then the four teams (regardless of district) with the highest RPI's also make it.  As a result, chances are you'll end up with the best 5 to 7 teams in the region plus one or two more "debatable" teams (and, like the NCAA basketball tournament every year, a couple of "debatable" teams will end up missing out, which then gives them the right to bitch and moan about the process for the next month).   But, because the district champs make it, there's a high likelihood that the best couple of teams within each region make the playoffs and battle for the a spot in the final four. 

Now, here's my biggest issue with the RPI: in addition to being used to select the four "best" non-district winning teams in each region, it's also used to determine home-field advantage for every playoff game up to the championship game.  In other words, the "officially terrible" formula determines whether a team gets a home playoff game or, alternatively, has to hop on a bus and travel 5-6 hours to play a game.  In the absence of a more sophisticated formula, I would rather see the FHSAA go back to a system where home field games are determined in advance based on a systematic rotational basis.    

YOU NAILED IT!!   I have been consistent with the RPI being used to determine home field using our example last year of being on the road for 3 of the 4 playoffs prior to the championship.  This in knowing full well that two Tampa area teams we beat handily got home field with better RPI, not better teams.  That's why our mindset is win district and just get in.  Seems like even when the FHSAA had a alternating formula (top and bottom bracket) getting rotated each year for home field they would tweak it every 3 or 4 years and somehow each time they did it didn't work in our favor.  Thus, just get in as the gods are doing us no favors.

[Hwy17]

I can't see how RPI, or the point system used in 2018 are that much of an improvement over district champ & district runner-up format previously used.  This was supposed to keep teams with losing records from making the playoffs while ones with winning seasons are kept out. Has either system really accomplished that goal? Not always.

[Ray Icaza]

Just envision a scenario like in our district that most see as a three team race with West Orange or Osceola as the likely winner and DP left out.  This system would allow that forecast to play out where we both beat DP and only one of us gets in throwing out the head to head win vs DP and their RPI trumps it.  No mathematician is going to convince me that system is fair or got the best team into the playoffs.

[Hwy17]

2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Just envision a scenario like in our district that most see as a three team race with West Orange or Osceola as the likely winner and DP left out.  This system would allow that forecast to play out where we both beat DP and only one of us gets in throwing out the head to head win vs DP and their RPI trumps it.  No mathematician is going to convince me that system is fair or got the best team into the playoffs.

In 2018 Tampa Robinson beat Jefferson in a district game. Both had the same w/l record. Under the old system Robinson would have made the playoffs as district runner-up. But Jefferson got in with a higher RPI. 

[Ray Icaza]

2 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

In 2018 Tampa Robinson beat Jefferson in a district game. Both had the same w/l record. Under the old system Robinson would have made the playoffs as district runner-up. But Jefferson got in with a higher RPI. 

Sounds exactly like the scenario I am describing as a possibility in our district; makes zero sense.

[DisabledAccount]

5 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

I can't see how RPI, or the point system used in 2018 are that much of an improvement over district champ & district runner-up format previously used.  This was supposed to keep teams with losing records from making the playoffs while ones with winning seasons are kept out. Has either system really accomplished that goal? Not always.

District runner up system put a 1-9 Eastside team in with a 8-2 Miami Central team missing the playoffs after winning the previous 4 state titles and both losses coming to teams ranked top 10 in the state but sure perfect system to a blind man 

 

 

2 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

In 2018 Tampa Robinson beat Jefferson in a district game. Both had the same w/l record. Under the old system Robinson would have made the playoffs as district runner-up. But Jefferson got in with a higher RPI. 

You mean a Jefferson team who made the regional finals and won 2 playoff games 

 

How many years do you have to go back to add up 2 playoff wins for Robinson?

[DisabledAccount]

RPI rewards teams with stronger schedules for home field advantage

 

If you aren't getting a higher RPI then play better teams 

 

 

Ain't that the same bs excuse people say for group of 5 teams not belonging in the playoffs? Well why would anyone be hypocrites about it in high school

 

If you are against group of 5s getting in playoffs for going undefeated and not rewarding better schedules then don't bitch about the RPI because it ACTUALLY SEEDS THE TEAMS 

[Hwy17]

6 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

RPI rewards teams with stronger schedules for home field advantage

 

If you aren't getting a higher RPI then play better teams 

 

 

Ain't that the same bullshit excuse people say for group of 5 teams not belonging in the playoffs? Well why would anyone be hypocrites about it in high school

 

If you are against group of 5s getting in playoffs for going undefeated and not rewarding better schedules then don't bitch about the RPI because it ACTUALLY SEEDS THE TEAMS 

I agree with the concept. But in practice, losing teams still get in. How is this fair: 2 teams are on the bubble of making the playoffs. One has a 5-5 record the other has a 5-4 record due to a cancellation. The team with a 5-4 record has a .55 WP and a .01 higher RPI than the team with a 5-5 record. If they make up the cancelled game and lose, both teams now will be 5-5 but their RPI drops and no playoffs. So the system encourages no make up games. 

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

I agree with the concept. But in practice, losing teams still get in. How is this fair: 2 teams are on the bubble of making the playoffs. One has a 5-5 record the other has a 5-4 record due to a cancellation. The team with a 5-4 record has a .55 WP and a .01 higher RPI than the team with a 5-5 record. If they make up the cancelled game and lose, both teams now will be 5-5 but their RPI drops and no playoffs. So the system encourages no make up games. 

Yeah because when you have regions where 2/3 of the teams are guaranteed to make the playoffs you will have losing teams make it 

 

That's not the fault of the RPI system, it's the fault of the FHSAA for not adapting to fixing these small regions because a Few teams are afraid of being left out of the playoffs after playing nobodies all year and still being lucky to crack .500 

[DisabledAccount]

There shouldn't be regions with 9 teams at any point

 

It wouldn't be hard to have 2 regions by combining regions 1 and 2 & 3 and 4 in classes 1-4a 

 

This is a simple fix that the FHSAA can't seem to figure out that would fix most of the problems being caused in ANY playoff format

[Perspective]

8 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

District runner up system put a 1-9 Eastside team in with a 8-2 Miami Central team missing the playoffs after winning the previous 4 state titles and both losses coming to teams ranked top 10 in the state but sure perfect system to a blind man

With all due respect to both ColumbiaHF and Miami Central, if you can't finish better than 3rd in your district, you probably don't deserve to make it into the playoffs.    CHF, to use your logic, it's unlikely that a team that doesn't make it to the SEC championship game is going to secure one of the four spots in the national champtionship playoffs  - although it's possible.  My point is simple:  MC had two chances to at least be the district runner-up and didn't make it happen.  However good they may have been in the past or the future, for that season, they weren't good enough to finish first or second in their district, so I'm OK with them being left out. 

If an occasional team with a losing record does make it in, they likely won't make it past the first round, so it basically gives the top seeded team(s) a relatively easy opening playoff game where they can rest some starters and play some second-teamers. 

Last, the biggest problem I have with the "rewards tough scheduling"  concept is that some schools have very little control over the vast majority of their scheduling (i.e., if they're in a big district or in a county, like Hillsborough, where the County handles almost all of a team's scheduling).   In addition, while the pundits and coaches may think they know which teams are likely to be good again when they're making up their schedules, when it comes to high school teams, it can be a roll of the dice. 

I'll give you this example just to make my point.  Say you were a high school coach in South Florida and you were trying to beef up your schedule for 2021 because, you know, you want to increase your chances of having a higher RPI and getting home playoff games.  So, last spring you reached out to Hallandale and scheduled them.   How'd that turn out? 

I'm not necessarily opposed the RPI concept; but I don't like teams getting a huge advantage in the playoffs based on an RPI formula that has some serious issues. 

[Perspective]

9 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

How many years do you have to go back to add up 2 playoff wins for Robinson?

Almost 10 years . . . back to 2012 when the Knights went undefeated in their district and proceeded to win 3 playoff games, before losing a nail-biter to eventual state champion Tallahassee Godby, 24-20, in the state semi-finals.  Of course, it hasn't helped Robinson much to be in the same district with Tampa Jesuit and Jefferson all those years. 

[Ray Icaza]

Columbia's logic is stupid as he claims play a tougher schedule which in fact is a matter of opinion who has the tougher schedule.  If I beat the crap out of the team in head to head plus have a better record that should trump a subjective RPI.  Also, he leaves out the Perspective point of assigning home field advantage on this pseudo scientific method.  Last point, it was supposed to fix/improve the old system we had and CHS just gave examples where it clearly has not.  I would prefer knowing that you need to win the district or finish runnerup to get into the playoffs upfront than a deserving team being left out based on a calculation which has flaws. Also, prefer knowing year to year how home field is determined.  Both systems leave out a potential better team, but I would prefer missing the playoffs because I didn't earn it based on objective rules, not subjective calculation.

[DisabledAccount]

14 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Columbia's logic is stupid as he claims play a tougher schedule which in fact is a matter of opinion who has the tougher schedule.  If I beat the crap out of the team in head to head plus have a better record that should trump a subjective RPI.  Also, he leaves out the Perspective point of assigning home field advantage on this pseudo scientific method.  Last point, it was supposed to fix/improve the old system we had and CHS just gave examples where it clearly has not.  I would prefer knowing that you need to win the district or finish runnerup to get into the playoffs upfront than a deserving team being left out based on a calculation which has flaws. Also, prefer knowing year to year how home field is determined.  Both systems leave out a potential better team, but I would prefer missing the playoffs because I didn't earn it based on objective rules, not subjective calculation.

It's not subjective

 

Win district and your in 

 

Why does a team coming second in a shit district mean they deserve to be in the playoffs? Just because you are some traditionalist that hates change don't mean the system is bad

 

And for knowing who's home I have to go digging for who's top or bottom and that's stupid beyond all levels, RPI actually seeds teams so higher seed hosts

 

What is so damn complicated then that