SOS (Wks 1-4) Update

[SportsNut25]

Josh just ran the numbers and his formula has compiled an updated strength of schedule list that now takes into accounts the first four weeks of the regular season. 

 

When he last ran the numbers in the preseason, the formula told him the following for the top 10 in the entire state:

 

1. Miami Northwestern (6A), .676

2. Miami Norland (6A), .669

3. Indian Rocks Christian (2A), .666

4. Tampa Catholic (3A), .663

T5. IMG Academy (IND), .658

(tie) St. Thomas Aquinas (7A), .658

7. Trinity Catholic (3A), .651

8. Blanche Ely (7A), .645

9. Inlet Grove (IND), .645

10. International School of Broward (2A), .639

 

(Link to the rest of the top 25 statewide, top 10 per class: http://floridahsfootball.com/2016/08/19/miami-northwestern-boasts-top-strength-schedule-florida-entering-season/)

 

Anyone want to guess the new statewide top 10 before it gets released? 

 

----

 

EDIT: New rankings here: http://floridahsfootball.com/2016/09/23/miami-carol-city-tops-updated-strength-schedule-rankings-going-week-5/

[DisabledAccount]

I knew we played a tough schedule now we got the math to prove it lol

[SportsNut25]

I knew we played a tough schedule now we got the math to prove it lol

 

You sure? The above link it just your preseason ranking. 

 

The next update is coming out very soon and you guys might be way up --- or way down. 

[Cocoa2010]

Does this include OOS or just Florida teams?

[SportsNut25]

Does this include OOS or just Florida teams?

 

It factors in when Florida teams play non-Florida teams. 

[DisabledAccount]

You sure? The above link it just your preseason ranking.

 

The next update is coming out very soon and you guys might be way up --- or way down.

The trinity game wasent on preseason schedule so it might go up

[Captain Morgan]

If IMG isn't first this poll just isn't right. As much as I dislike them and what they represent,they have played 3 nationally ranked teams thus far. I'm not knocking Northwesterns schedule or its quality no doubt, but it doesn't touch IMG.

[Proseteye]

They also play four Florida teams that are ranked fairly high: Boyd Anderson, Chaminade, Oxbridge, and TCA. 

[Cat_Scratch]

Does this include OOS or just Florida teams?

Not having a 10 game season hurts your schedule.

 

Thus Miami Central has 8 games, Cocoa has 9, etc...

This will level out a little in the playoffs as some teams will fall out early I assume.

[james ricks]

They also play four Florida teams that are ranked fairly high: Boyd Anderson, Chaminade, Oxbridge, and TCA.

Chaminade has since cancelled their game with IMG

[Cat_Scratch]

That tells me the coach deems the team as being weak, and not wanting a loss. If a team is trying to get into the playoffs with an undefeated season and drops a good team cause their scared, then it should count as a loss.

 

He knew who IMG was before he scheduled them. He cost Charmin, I mean Chaminade a game.

[james ricks]

That tells me the coach deems the team as being weak, and not wanting a loss. If a team is trying to get into the playoffs with an undefeated season and drops a good team cause their scared, then it should count as a loss.

 

He knew who IMG was before he scheduled them. He cost Charmin, I mean Chaminade a game.

he probably wanted them to go into the opening round of the 3a playoffs the following week healthy, plus that's not the same coach that was their before, the previous one was let go before the season even started

[james ricks]

Their would have been a good chance Chaminade would have went into the playoffs banged up 6 days after playing IMG

[Zoe Boy]

That tells me the coach deems the team as being weak, and not wanting a loss. If a team is trying to get into the playoffs with an undefeated season and drops a good team cause their scared, then it should count as a loss.

 

He knew who IMG was before he scheduled them. He cost Charmin, I mean Chaminade a game.

Chaminade has a loss already

[SportsNut25]

Wait wait wait wait. 

 

You can't blame the HC for dropping IMG because the OLD HC scheduled them. Now the new HC in charge said "nah, we're good." 

[SportsNut25]

Their would have been a good chance Chaminade would have went into the playoffs banged up 6 days after playing IMG

 

Exactly. 

[SPCjessica2004]

One of the issues that a lot of people have when discussing high school football is only looking at D-1 athletes and SoS. On this forum for instance, if you took a poll preseason of who was going to win 3A or represent the south- almost everyone said, Chaminade-Madonna. It was so overwhelming that in an overly dramatic way the feeling was "Nobody can beat them, disband your teams..heck they shouldn't have to play a game, put them against Trinity right now in August, then cancel all 3A games.". Now, 5 weeks in, they're a really good team- but nobody bothered to take into consideration chemistry, coaching changes or if the players have played in a big or rivalry game in recent history.

I love Strength of Schedule as much as anybody, but it only looks at the current year and how teams are doing on a specific week. Chaminade was SMART to drop IMG. They were going to play that game in week 11 on a Saturday at 1pm and then turn around 6 days later and play American Heritage or Oxbridge Academy. Now, American Heritage maybe down- but that is still not a team you want to play with 5 days of prep time. Now, if AHD upset Oxbridge. you're talking about hosting Oxbridge 6 days after hosting IMG and that's only round 1 of the playoffs. Very, very few teams could pull playing those 2 teams off in 6 days.

The new Chaminade coach, Damon Jones, smartly realized he's got a winner- but they're going to face a huge mountain going into 3A south with teams just as talented, better chemistry and have already won regional and southern championships. This is why, even when everyone else ranked them #2- I could only rank Chaminade #3 in the preseason.  They're coming along nicely, and will continue to get better- but some battles are better off not being fought.

It's not unlike last year, when I said AHD would win the south. All year, everyone said oxbridge was unbeatable and that they were IMG of the East...yet couldn't figure out why a bigger, faster, stronger and better coached Oxbridge team with more D-1 guys was upset by AHD. Simple, AHD had a senior loaded team that had come up short in the past and was ready to win. 

So, kudos to Chaminade. They're trying to win a state championship and I think it's the right call for that goal.

[DisabledAccount]

One of the issues that a lot of people have when discussing high school football is only looking at D-1 athletes and SoS. On this forum for instance, if you took a poll preseason of who was going to win 3A or represent the south- almost everyone said, Chaminade-Madonna. It was so overwhelming that in an overly dramatic way the feeling was "Nobody can beat them, disband your teams..heck they shouldn't have to play a game, put them against Trinity right now in August, then cancel all 3A games.". Now, 5 weeks in, they're a really good team- but nobody bothered to take into consideration chemistry, coaching changes or if the players have played in a big or rivalry game in recent history.

 

I love Strength of Schedule as much as anybody, but it only looks at the current year and how teams are doing on a specific week. Chaminade was SMART to drop IMG. They were going to play that game in week 11 on a Saturday at 1pm and then turn around 6 days later and play American Heritage or Oxbridge Academy. Now, American Heritage maybe down- but that is still not a team you want to play with 5 days of prep time. Now, if AHD upset Oxbridge. you're talking about hosting Oxbridge 6 days after hosting IMG and that's only round 1 of the playoffs. Very, very few teams could pull playing those 2 teams off in 6 days.

 

The new Chaminade coach, Damon Jones, smartly realized he's got a winner- but they're going to face a huge mountain going into 3A south with teams just as talented, better chemistry and have already won regional and southern championships. This is why, even when everyone else ranked them #2- I could only rank Chaminade #3 in the preseason. They're coming along nicely, and will continue to get better- but some battles are better off not being fought.

 

It's not unlike last year, when I said AHD would win the south. All year, everyone said oxbridge was unbeatable and that they were IMG of the East...yet couldn't figure out why a bigger, faster, stronger and better coached Oxbridge team with more D-1 guys was upset by AHD. Simple, AHD had a senior loaded team that had come up short in the past and was ready to win.

 

So, kudos to Chaminade. They're trying to win a state championship and I think it's the right call for that goal.

I agree, they don't need to get injured playing a team who has a history of forcing injuries as i saw mentioned on here a while back

 

Also I'm starting to get impression Oxbridge might actually be better then TCA

[DarterBlue2]

One of the issues that a lot of people have when discussing high school football is only looking at D-1 athletes and SoS. On this forum for instance, if you took a poll preseason of who was going to win 3A or represent the south- almost everyone said, Chaminade-Madonna. It was so overwhelming that in an overly dramatic way the feeling was "Nobody can beat them, disband your teams..heck they shouldn't have to play a game, put them against Trinity right now in August, then cancel all 3A games.". Now, 5 weeks in, they're a really good team- but nobody bothered to take into consideration chemistry, coaching changes or if the players have played in a big or rivalry game in recent history.

 

 

 

Agree. Team Chemistry and coaching mean just as much as schedule and numbers of D1 talent on the team. Apopka has never had as many D1 players as several other teams in the same class each of the three years they won a state title. Chemistry and coaching had as much to do with the success. 

[SPCjessica2004]

I think many feel the same way; however, saying that team A is better than team B doesn't take into consideration the weeks each team has to go through to play each other.  If Oxbridge and TCA played on a random Friday and had all year to game-plan for each other- sure, Oxbridge might be a touch better; however, that's not the world we live in.  Let's be realistic Columbia, JaxTCA is going to walk into Orlando- nobody in 3A North is going to so much as push them. Tampa Catholic will give them a game for 1 quarter in the final 4 and then get steamrolled.

Oxbridge has a gauntlet starting in Rd 2.

Rd 1 vs Westminster Christian,
Rd 2 at Chaminade-Madonna,
Rd 3 at CCC.

I personally think CCC playing at home is the best team in the south of 3A- I'm not the only one, there's a reason they're ranked #1 in the AP Poll. But, if Oxbridge and JaxTCA are playing in Orlando (which could happen), remember that Oxbridge will be coming off 2 knock-down, drag-out wars after 2 long road trips on weary legs while JaxTCA will be coming in more or less well rested having played 3 home games.

So, the question isn't, is Oxbridge better than JaxTCA right now- because if that is the question, you'll never get an answer, just baseless SoS arguments. The question is- is Oxbridge after 2 road trips and 2 wars better than a well rested JaxTCA team who had 3 home games before the finals. I think JaxTCA wins by 2 TD's in that scenario if it were to happen.

It's the little things you have to take into consideration.



 

[mbhs69]

Here's where that sweat work in August and in-season drills come into play.  For those skilled teams in that long last mile thru the playoffs, the best conditioned teams will have an edge.   In a close game there's no hidin the truth in the 4th qtr .

Plus lotsa prayin there's no key injuries.

[BrowardHandicapper]

One of the issues that a lot of people have when discussing high school football is only looking at D-1 athletes and SoS. On this forum for instance, if you took a poll preseason of who was going to win 3A or represent the south- almost everyone said, Chaminade-Madonna. It was so overwhelming that in an overly dramatic way the feeling was "Nobody can beat them, disband your teams..heck they shouldn't have to play a game, put them against Trinity right now in August, then cancel all 3A games.". Now, 5 weeks in, they're a really good team- but nobody bothered to take into consideration chemistry, coaching changes or if the players have played in a big or rivalry game in recent history.

 

I love Strength of Schedule as much as anybody, but it only looks at the current year and how teams are doing on a specific week. Chaminade was SMART to drop IMG. They were going to play that game in week 11 on a Saturday at 1pm and then turn around 6 days later and play American Heritage or Oxbridge Academy. Now, American Heritage maybe down- but that is still not a team you want to play with 5 days of prep time. Now, if AHD upset Oxbridge. you're talking about hosting Oxbridge 6 days after hosting IMG and that's only round 1 of the playoffs. Very, very few teams could pull playing those 2 teams off in 6 days.

 

The new Chaminade coach, Damon Jones, smartly realized he's got a winner- but they're going to face a huge mountain going into 3A south with teams just as talented, better chemistry and have already won regional and southern championships. This is why, even when everyone else ranked them #2- I could only rank Chaminade #3 in the preseason.  They're coming along nicely, and will continue to get better- but some battles are better off not being fought.

 

It's not unlike last year, when I said AHD would win the south. All year, everyone said oxbridge was unbeatable and that they were IMG of the East...yet couldn't figure out why a bigger, faster, stronger and better coached Oxbridge team with more D-1 guys was upset by AHD. Simple, AHD had a senior loaded team that had come up short in the past and was ready to win. 

 

So, kudos to Chaminade. They're trying to win a state championship and I think it's the right call for that goal.

 

I don't recall any from this board calling 2015 Oxbridge Academy unbeatable or the "IMG of the East"  That is the first I hear of that actually...

 

Agree with you overall to a point, but the AHD/Oxbridge 2015 example is meh....It is not like AHD had bunch of slouches on their team.  In fact AHD had more Seniors and D1 Senior players than Oxbridge did.

 

AHD had several D1 and were actually more loaded in the 2016 D1 department.   The teams were very close.  During the regular season Oxbridge got the best of AHD in 2015 - 24-7.  In the playoffs AHD won 16 -11.  That game was basically over when Oxbridge RB Travis Homer (now at UM) went down with a severe injury.  But I see your point seniors, chemistry and coaching can still sometimes trump talent overall at the high school level.  But is always nice to start building that chemistry with D1 talent early on IMO.

 

I do agree that AHD could catch Oxbridge a little shell shocked on short days rest as well.  I agree it benefits Chaminade to not play IMG before the playoffs but there should be consequences.  It is not IMG's fault that Chaminade had all of that drama in the late pre-sesaon and changed coaches.  They should not be penalized.  What if the FHSAA just starts allowing teams to pull out of or forfeit games in the future with the new system coming?  Will teams start forfeiting games to suffer less damage (to their point standings and physically of course) when they feel they bit off more than they can chew?  If this was happening under the new system in 2017 you could potentially actually strong-arm or hold certain teams back to benefit other teams by simply forfeiting games. There needs to be consequences IMO.  The last thing we need is liberalism infiltrating HS Football IMO.

[SPCjessica2004]

Broward,

It wasn't on this message board, it was on Floridakids regarding Oxbridge and being the IMG of the East. Yes, there should be consequences- I'd be okay if Chaminade took a loss for dropping the game after the season started. I was more complimenting them for making the call to pull the proverbial trigger in dropping IMG. 

I was personally at the first Oxbridge vs AHD game at AHD. While AHD had more senior D-1 guys, Oxbridge as a whole was a better team across the board taking into account younger players. I'm on the belief that Oxbridge was better overall, but AHD just had that knack for making big plays at key times to upset Oxbridge. That was also a different Oxbridge than this years version. I don't see a DJ Davis or Devin Singletary type at AHD this year- although, I think they expected more of a team approach from their squad. Looking at their schedule, I'm not sure anybody in 3A would be much better than 1-3 when you look at playing Northwestern, St. Johns, Glades Central and Naples. Even Oxbridge, CCC and yes, JaxTCA would struggle against that schedule.

As for next year- that's next year under a new system of rules and in that situation we can revisit it. In this system, I applaud Chaminade for dropping IMG- regardless of public backlash.

 

[SportsNut25]

Updated SOS Rankings - http://floridahsfootball.com/2016/09/23/miami-carol-city-tops-updated-strength-schedule-rankings-going-week-5/

[BrowardHandicapper]

Updated SOS Rankings - http://floridahsfootball.com/2016/09/23/miami-carol-city-tops-updated-strength-schedule-rankings-going-week-5/

 

Hmmm....Interesting.  I'm still thinking this formula needs a bit of tweaking or a few more weeks to adjust.....for example looking at 3A:

 

CLASS 3A

1. Tampa Catholic, .670

2. Berkeley Prep, .656

3. Westminster Christian, .616

4. John Carroll, .606

5. Chaminade-Madonna, .593

 

Kind of surprised that AHD, Oxbridge and TCA are not in the top 5 of that 3A group...