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OldSchoolLion

Who Will Be This Year's Biggest Bust?

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The following teams were all highly ranked in the preseason polls and considered strong contenders for a state title, but ended up being busts at the end of the season(not that they were all bad teams).   

Who will be this year's biggest bust amongst the top-ranked teams?  ...not that anyone out there likes second-guessing anyone else:rolleyes: 

2018 Atlantic(8A)-lost first round of playoffs to Western 21-7 ; Clay(5A)- finished 4-6 and did not make playoffs

2017 Deerfield Beach(8A) - lost in first round of 8A playoffs to Western 20-17; Coral Gables(8A) - finished 4-5 and did not make playoffs

2016 Apopka(8A) - lost in first round of playoffs to Timber Creek 40-39; Miami Central(6A) - finished 6-2 and did not make playoffs

2015 Oakleaf(7A) - finished 8-2 and did not make playoffs; Lake Gibson(6A) - lost in first round of playoffs to Brandon 21-13 

2014 Dwyer(7A) - finished 7-3 and did not make playoffs; Columbia(6A) - lost in first round of playoffs to St Augustine 33-21

2013 Godby(5A) - lost in first round of playoffs to West Florida 41-40; Cypress Bay (8A) - finished 6-5 and did not make playoffs

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From the Tampa Bay Area:

Pinellas Park High School- Went 10-0 in 2018 and lost in the first round to Palmetto 38-21. With the losses of starting QB Brandon Coppola  and LB AJ Mathis (Miami commit) to nearby Largo High School and Derek Bryant to American Collegiate Academy (formerly known as Superior Collegiate) that only leaves Lawrance Toafili (FSU commit) in the backfield for them. Can LT handle the load all by himself for a potential playoff run?

St. Petersburg High School- Coming off of a 6-4 season where the talent was poised to big things this 2019 season. The Green Devils have suffered major losses on their roster, with the most of them being transfers. This St. Pete team looks depleted and it showed during their Kickoff Classic against a very good Chamberlain team. The Green Devils lost the classic on the their brand new turf field 42-0. It is looking like a potential down year for the Green Devils. How do you bounce back with the amount of talent that was lost?

 

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Plant in 8A-R2 and/or Vero Beach in 8A-R3 could make an early exit in the playoffs.  

Wekiva and Columbia are in brutal regions.  I would not be shocked if one or both did not make the region final.  Wekiva's district game with Edgewater will be huge.  If they lose the district, they could find themselves traveling to the Panhandle in round 2 of the playoffs to play a District 1 team.  7A-District 1 is arguably the toughest district in the state and could send 4 teams to the playoffs.

Even strong contenders Carol City, Cardinal Gibbons and Columbus could make early exits if they let down their guards and/or have off seasons.  There are south FL teams in their respective regions who could pull off an upset.

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I'm gonna pull a surprise and say AHP 

 

They should make playoffs but depending upon who they match up with we could see a stunning early exit, people weren't that surprised with Cardinal Gibbons beating AHP in playoffs last year since they already beat them in regular season but many expect AHP to make a deep run this year and I'm gonna pull a surprise and say they get knocked out early

 

May be wrong but you know what they say

 

Go Bold or go Home lol

 

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57 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Plant in 8A-R2 and/or Vero Beach in 8A-R3 could make an early exit in the playoffs.  

Wekiva and Columbia are in brutal regions.  I would not be shocked if one or both did not make the region final.  Wekiva's district game with Edgewater will be huge.  If they lose the district, they could find themselves traveling to the Panhandle in round 2 of the playoffs to play a District 1 team.  7A-District 1 is arguably the toughest district in the state and could send 4 teams to the playoffs.

Even strong contenders Carol City, Cardinal Gibbons and Columbus could make early exits if they let down their guards and/or have off seasons.  There are south FL teams in their respective regions who could pull off an upset.

Wekiva is not top 10 in Central Florida.  Anyone who has them there is basing it off last year.

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14 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I'm gonna pull a surprise and say AHP 

 

They should make playoffs but depending upon who they match up with we could see a stunning early exit, people weren't that surprised with Cardinal Gibbons beating AHP in playoffs last year since they already beat them in regular season but many expect AHP to make a deep run this year and I'm gonna pull a surprise and say they get knocked out early

 

May be wrong but you know what they say

 

Go Bold or go Home lol

 

I disagree.  AHP should not only win their district, they should get to the 3rd round and face Northwestern.  That region is between those two with a big drop off to the #3 team .

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27 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

I disagree.  AHP should not only win their district, they should get to the 3rd round and face Northwestern.  That region is between those two with a big drop off to the #3 team .

For how high AHP is ranked simply making it to 3rd round before losing to only other team in that region that can argubly be better isn't exactly proving that their ranking was the correct one

 

Also AHP currently has no player ranked higher than 3* on their senior class, now granted I've said before I rather be loaded in 3* players than have 1 5* but it's interest a team like AHP in one of largest talent pools in the nation and being one of the "top" programs in Broward county would not have a single player rated higher in their senior class (I don't read as much into star ratings from underclassmen classes since the ratings aren't usually as accurate as they are when measured as a senior but I included their other classes to show how limited it gets after the current senior group)

 

2020

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

2021

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

 

2022

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

 

2023


https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

 

 

For comparison i selected a school up here in North Florida with similar numbers in Sandalwood

 

2020

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=9119

 

2021

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=9119

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

I disagree.  AHP should not only win their district, they should get to the 3rd round and face Northwestern.  That region is between those two with a big drop off to the #3 team .

Now look at AHP current roster and compare it to many "blue chips" on the 2016, 2017 and 2018 classes

 

2018 

https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

2017

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

2016

https://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

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20 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

While AHP "may" find a way to make regional finals before losing to MNW, I do view AHP as very much at risk to get caught early in playoffs if another team gets hot

So let me ask you this:  Of the following which one do you see as beating AHP in the early rounds?:

DeSoto County, Cape Coral, LaBelle, Jensen Beach, Suncoast, Coconut Creek, Hallandale, Stranahan, Miami Jackson, Key West.  

 

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1 minute ago, Hwy17 said:

So let me ask you this:  Of the following which one do you see as beating AHP in the early rounds?:

DeSoto County, Cape Coral, LaBelle, Jensen Beach, Suncoast, Coconut Creek, Hallandale, Stranahan, Miami Jackson, Key West.  

 

I'm not sure yet, there's always gonna be a team that looks like just any other team in August that catches fire in November

 

I'm not sure if any of them end up being that but I know it's certainly not impossible

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32 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

For how high AHP is ranked simply making it to 3rd round before losing to only other team in that region that can argubly be better isn't exactly proving that their ranking was the correct one

 

Also AHP currently has no player ranked higher than 3* on their senior class, now granted I've said before I rather be loaded in 3* players than have 1 5* but it's interest a team like AHP in one of largest talent pools in the nation and being one of the "top" programs in Broward county would not have a single player rated higher in their senior class (I don't read as much into star ratings from underclassmen classes since the ratings aren't usually as accurate as they are when measured as a senior but I included their other classes to show how limited it gets after the current senior group)

 

2020

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

2021

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

 

2022

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

 

2023


https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=1085

 

 

 

For comparison i selected a school up here in North Florida with similar numbers in Sandalwood

 

2020

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=9119

 

2021

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/Recruits/?&PlayerSport.PlayerInstitution.Institution.Key=9119

 

 

Haha, I knew they were going to come up eventually.  Nobody wastes talent like Sandalwood does.  It has been going on for almost 20 years and shows no signs of changing.  At least DB makes deep playoff runs.  Sandalwood has barely even had a sniff of the playoffs in the last two decades, despite having a roster full of kids with "stars" by their name every single year.  Perfect example of how quality coaching (or, in this case, a lack of) affects a group of kids.

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18 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Plus unlikely scenario but what if AHP and MNW take several losses and end up as 2 and 3 seeds in region 

 

That means they would play round 2 not round 3

I seriously doubt any of the other teams in that region win more than 8 games, so AHP still goes in #2 seed.

Personally, I think DeSoto is the #3 team in that region but they don't have what it takes to knock off either AHP or MNW. 

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16 hours ago, badbird said:

Wekiva is not top 10 in Central Florida.  Anyone who has them there is basing it off last year.

I have to agree. After seeing them in Spring game, I wasn't impressed. Bishop Moore shut them out for a half and they didn't look great against a down Boone team. I don't think they'll make playoffs. Same goes for Apopka with new coach and offensive scheme; their ranking is probably based on past years performance.

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Coach D left some really big shoes to fill, especially for someone who hasn't been coaching for a while. I can definitely see Apopka having a year in which they just barely make the playoffs. I think they are too talented in general not to make it, but I could be wrong. I agree that they are certainly not a Top-10 team right now.

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Columbiafan, get off the supposed rumors and look on paper. AHP on the field just beat the loaded roster of Chaminade that everyone is putting into the state game. They should of gotten destroyed by chaminade according to your reasoning but that is not the case. AHP still has experience on their side and is 2-0 vs The west.

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3 hours ago, Tes55 said:

Columbiafan, get off the supposed rumors and look on paper. AHP on the field just beat the loaded roster of Chaminade that everyone is putting into the state game. They should of gotten destroyed by chaminade according to your reasoning but that is not the case. AHP still has experience on their side and is 2-0 vs The west.

Your point is well taken, but AHP "beat" Chaminade in a game that was played under odd rules.

#1) The game featured 3 10 minute quarters.
#2) Despite being 20-13, the 4th, 10 minute quarter was played with a running clock.

Chaminade held out Willie Moise (4 star DT) and Elijah Cannon (game changing WR).

Even with all of that said, Chaminade had the ball at the AHP 15 with under 2 minutes left with a change to tie or win the game.

I've spoken with no less than 7 people about the game on social media in background messages and the overall feeling is that Chaminade was the better team and likely wins by a TD if the game is played with normal rules.

To AHP's credit, they do have a very good passing attack. Chaminade doesn't have the superstar power in the secondary of years past, but if Moise plays, I think the QB for AHP is held in check.

To bad they don't play in the regular season this year.

 

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4 hours ago, Tes55 said:

Columbiafan, get off the supposed rumors and look on paper. AHP on the field just beat the loaded roster of Chaminade that everyone is putting into the state game. They should of gotten destroyed by chaminade according to your reasoning but that is not the case. AHP still has experience on their side and is 2-0 vs The west.

And we beat IMG in a game like that last year and did it much more convincingly

 

Beating someone good in a KOC can show a team "could" be good but isn't the same as a real game

 

 

And notice I did look on paper, AHP talent is similar to that of sandalwood who regularly is lucky to even make the Playoffs, this AHP team ain't even close to being as loaded as their recent title teams

 

In fact I'll make argument AHP got lucky to end up in 5a instead of 4a or 6a this year, they may make 3rd round just because the only significant threat is MNW but it don't make this AHP team loaded 

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